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BO Germany/Austria: Bond takes over with best post-Covid opening to date

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3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Ähm

 

EAEqjOgXkAAaiQc.png

TS4 comes out in three weeks, the weather could be totally different then.

 

This Weekend surely will be disastrous for TLK, ignore my previous comments about holds, everything better than a 60% drop is probably a sign of good legs. Especially if it can hold flat in the weekend after and then drop slowly because the weather gets better again (like colder and sometimes rain and all that).

 

 

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

13

 

Bohemian Rhapsody

 

8.966

 

98

 

91

 

3.581.614

 

33.063.281

 

 

+109

 

 

38

 

19

 

Green Book

 

5.053

 

47

 

108

 

1.503.454

 

13.135.899

 

+29

 

 

25

 

For a second i thought i was in the wrong page, why are these 2 oscar movies suddenly come back alive?

Open air cinemas often show films and they tend to show more family / arthouse like films. No superhero or SW. And they tend to have strong showings during the summer

 

4 hours ago, MeowwoeM said:

So lower than Incredibles 2 and How to Train Your Dragon 3? 😕

Definitely

This 100%:

3 hours ago, George Parr said:

That wouldn't exactly be surprising. The first Incredibles was bigger than any Toy Story movie (3.5m admissions), and How to Train your Dragon 2 was also quite a bit bigger than Toy Story 3 (2.73m compared to 1.59m). Toy Story never really caught on here, especially when you look at what other franchises managed to do at that time (Ice Age, Madagascar, Shrek, etc.)

 

 

honestly:

I think there is a solid chance for Frozen 2 Opening Week to be above TS4 total and Germany doesn't have any holidays in the end of November, so no thanksgiving helping it but I certainly think that Frozen 2 has at least the chance to open really big. Can see that having the 3/4/5 best opening. 1 & 2 should be Endgame and RTOS and 3,4,5 should be TLK, Frozen and It.

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17 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

13

 

Bohemian Rhapsody

 

8.966

 

98

 

91

 

3.581.614

 

33.063.281

 

 

+109

 

 

38

 

19

 

Green Book

 

5.053

 

47

 

108

 

1.503.454

 

13.135.899

 

+29

 

 

25

 

For a second i thought i was in the wrong page, why are these 2 oscar movies suddenly come back alive?

In a market where <10k admissions are enough to get into the Top20, a few well-booked open-air shows will do that trick (some of those have >1000 seats ...)

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So hopefully the presales multi is insane this Wend or we will be in for an utter disaster. Like I seriously think that tomorrow will be so dead that a realistic target is about 40k and a target for the Wend is about 300k which would be a 68% drop. All other movies look so bad that I think they will all drop below 50k apart from Spidey and Pets 2 who have a slight chance to get to 50k.

 

I really hope that the weather next Wend will be way worse so they can all increase again.

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On 7/21/2019 at 5:06 PM, Taruseth said:

If he thinks 1.2M than it either would mean a 350k Sunday after 210, 175k, 215k, 240k over the first 4-days or Saturday was better and it looks more like 210k, 175k, 215k, 275k, 325k. The former won't happen, the later is possible, I'd say (number in brackets are from the 17:00 count):

 

Cinestar Bremen:

2D 17:00: 163

2D 19:30: 146 (17:00: 100 -> +46)

 

3D 17:30: 109 (17:00: 94 -> +15)

3D 20:20: 173 (17:00: 105 -> +68)

 

OV 3D 20:20: 72 (17:00: 67 ->+5)

 

Total: 591/663 (462/529) (Without OV/With OV)

 

And the whole days has been sunny (22-23 °C while yesterday was rainy around 5-6 pm) numbers are final count so in the last 15 minutes before show began, sorry only counted those showings:

2D 17:00: 95

2D 19:30: 121

 

3D 17:30: 85

3D 20:20: 183

3D 22:30: 51

 

So total: 535

 

So counting the shows after 17:00 today would be even with yesterday despite worse weather and probably slightly better midday shows, will try to update this post through out the evening.

 

19:56:

Now including the 19:30 2D showing I am 95% certain that Bremen is an outliner or I fucked up the counting yesterday and yesterday actually was more like 700 total.

 

20:30:

Well, today evening showings were 10.5%/23.9% above yesterday, yeah, that's not happening. Of off a 240k Saturday would be 265.2/297.4 for Sunday and a 895.2-927.4k admissions. No idea how this should get a 990k 4-day unless Saturday truly was around 275k and that would mean Sunday would be around 304k-340k which would put the Wend at 934-970k over the Wend.

 

 

Probably it over performed here today by quite something.

 

2D 17:30: 16 (17:00: 12)

2D 19:30: 46 (17:00: 40)

2D 22:00: 10 (17:00: 0)

 

3D 17:00: 11

3D 20:20: 72 (17:00: 36)

3D 22:30: 16 (17:00: 2)

 

So total: 171 (17:00: 101)

 

Bremen (Temperatur right now (16:51: 37 °C)

in the most west part of Lower Saxony the Germany temperature record from yesterday (40.5 °C) was broken by a whole degree, now it's 41.5 °C) Correction 42 °C. Correction: 42.6 °C

Most of the most populated state of Germany (North Rhine-Westphalia had temperatures of around 40-41 °C) while most of the rest of Germany had temperatures around 38-40 °C).

So I guess overall this Wend will be as disastrous as I expected it.

 

Taking the high approach and we say last Saturday was 240k that would mean last Sunday was around 285-290k and 663 adm over the evening shows which should contribute less to Sunday than they do on a Thursday overall.

 

Thursday: 73.5-74.8k (17:00: 43.4-44.2k)

Adjusting for the different performance throughout the day, I'd say evening showings make up half of a Sunday and about 70% of the normal day, following that logic.

Thursday ~53k

 

Let's see what course it will take over the day.

None the less the drop will be awful this Wend and if it weren't for TLK we would have one of the worst Wends of all time.

 

Tomorrow we will know how it truly turned out.

Think like last Wend Sunday will be the strongest day because it will be the coldest one and in southern Germany temperatures are supposed to drop to around 20 °C while in northern Germany they are forecasted to stay above 30 °C, none the less colder than today.

 

Last Wend:

Thursday: 175k

Friday: 215k

Saturday: 240k

Sunday: 290k

 

this Wend:

55k

75k

85k

110k

 

=325k (-64.8%)

 

(my first idea was even lower with 285k (-69%))

 

Obviously hope it will have performed stronger and comes in way above this.

 

Edited by Taruseth
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15 hours ago, Taruseth said:

2D 17:30: 16 (17:00: 12)

2D 19:30: 46 (17:00: 40)

2D 22:00: 10 (17:00: 0)

 

3D 17:00: 11

3D 20:20: 72 (17:00: 36)

3D 22:30: 16 (17:00: 2)

 

So total: 171 (17:00: 101)

 

Bremen (Temperatur right now (16:51: 37 °C)

in the most west part of Lower Saxony the Germany temperature record from yesterday (40.5 °C) was broken by a whole degree, now it's 41.5 °C) Correction 42 °C. Correction: 42.6 °C

Most of the most populated state of Germany (North Rhine-Westphalia had temperatures of around 40-41 °C) while most of the rest of Germany had temperatures around 38-40 °C).

So I guess overall this Wend will be as disastrous as I expected it.

 

Taking the high approach and we say last Saturday was 240k that would mean last Sunday was around 285-290k and 663 adm over the evening shows which should contribute less to Sunday than they do on a Thursday overall.

 

Thursday: 73.5-74.8k (17:00: 43.4-44.2k)

Adjusting for the different performance throughout the day, I'd say evening showings make up half of a Sunday and about 70% of the normal day, following that logic.

Thursday ~53k

 

Let's see what course it will take over the day.

None the less the drop will be awful this Wend and if it weren't for TLK we would have one of the worst Wends of all time.

 

Tomorrow we will know how it truly turned out.

Think like last Wend Sunday will be the strongest day because it will be the coldest one and in southern Germany temperatures are supposed to drop to around 20 °C while in northern Germany they are forecasted to stay above 30 °C, none the less colder than today.

 

Last Wend:

Thursday: 175k

Friday: 215k

Saturday: 240k

Sunday: 290k

 

this Wend:

55k

75k

85k

110k

 

=325k (-64.8%)

 

(my first idea was even lower with 285k (-69%))

 

Obviously hope it will have performed stronger and comes in way above this.

 

TLK way outperformed my expectations despite it being the hottest day ever in probably half the country and one of the hottest days ever in the rest. Seems like my theatre underperformed yesterday and over performed last Saturday&Sunday, looks like adjusting down the evening won't work for a family orientated region.

 

Thursday actuals:

 

TLK: 90k (€835k ≈ $930k)

Pets 2: 19k (€140k ≈ $160k)

Spidey: 18k (€170k ≈ $194k)

Die drei !!!: 10.5k (€70k ≈ $80k) (started in 480 cinemas)

Yesterday: 8.5k (€70k ≈ $80k)

 

#7: Pain & Glory: 4.3k (€36k ≈ $41k) (only in 76 cinemas)

 

 

#12: Abikalypse: 1.5k (€12k ≈ $13.7k) (started in 195 cinemas)

 

 

Possible Wend (bad weather on Sunday in souther Germany! If the weather is good than Sunday at best will be flat)

90k

105k

115k

135k

 

445k

Edited by Taruseth
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The 1st Trend is much better than feared!

 

TLK 550k (-40%/-51% i.Wed.) 2M+ cume

Pets2 125k (-14%) 😮

SM:FFH 110k (-26%)

Die drei !!! 65k

Yesterday 55k (-21%)

Dolor y gloria 32,5k

 

That's pretty surprising. But maybe people in Germany realised too that there's not much to do outside if it is that hot :D

Edited by Aristis
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1 minute ago, Aristis said:

The 1st Trend is much better than feared!

 

TLK 550k (-40%/-51% i.Wed.)

Pets2 125k (-14%)

SM:FFH 110k (-26%)

Die drei !!! 65k

Yesterday 55k (-21%)

Dolor y gloria 32,5k

 

Considering the weather, that would be very good indeed.

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12 hours ago, Aristis said:

The 1st Trend is much better than feared!

 

TLK 550k (-40%/-51% i.Wed.) 2M+ cume

Pets2 125k (-14%) 😮

SM:FFH 110k (-26%)

Die drei !!! 65k

Yesterday 55k (-21%)

Dolor y gloria 32,5k

 

That's pretty surprising. But maybe people in Germany realised too that there's not much to do outside if it is that hot :D

It really is. To be honest it feels like I was the main person that pushed the expectation for this Wend down because it truly looked awful in Bremen.

Tomorrow the temperature is already forecast to be lower in souther germany than in the past two days (below 30 °C) and more importantly below a line from Cologne to Dresden it's supposed to rain so that could make Saturday significantly better and on Sunday the forecast says thunder storms pretty much everywhere with rain a part from parts of the north. So if Sunday is colder an rainy in most parts it could get great evening shows.

For 550k the Wend would need to be something like:

90k

120k

155k

185k

 

Also despite everything the weekdays (mon-wed) accounted for roughly 320-340k.

 

 

 

Totals for the evening shows 20 an 22pm (+17pm):

Saturday: 355 (535)

Sunday: 391 (663)

Thursday: 144 (171)

 

Sorry, didn't get to count the 5 pm shows so today the estimate will only be based on the 8 pm and 10 pm showings, in other words even less reliable.

2D 19:30: 85

2D 22:00: 20

 

2D 20:20: 114

2D 22:30: 16

 

Total: 235

 

Mhh. so using the comps (in brackets are the unfair comps because I forgot the 5 pm showings today):

Saturday-> 159k (105k)

Sunday -> 174k (103k)

Thursday -> 147k (123k)

If the two 5 pm showings sold just around 40 tickets that would push the whole number to 275 and with that the comps:

Saturday -> 123k

Sunday -> 120k

Thursday -> 145k

 

So that would put todays number at 120-140k.

Which actually would be in line with what it needs for 550k.

 

140-160k seem way to high in comps because I guess 20 pm showings account for a bigger part on Friday (by quite something) and especially on Sunday the 17 pm showings are important.

 

And for next Wend:

Either people realised that a cinema is nice because it has ac opposed to almost all private homes.

Or they didn't and then next Wend should be flat or might even increase a little bit (that would be amazing).

Edited by Taruseth
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2nd Trend:

TLK: 550k (-40%)

Pets 2: 125k (-14%) 

Spidey: 110k (-26%)

Die drei !!!: 55k

Yesterday. 55k (-21%)

Annabelle 3: 32.5k

Dolor y gloria: 30k

 

Italic ones didn't chance compared to the last trend.

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Me trying to predict Saturday based on the evening shows:

2D 17:30: 50 (11:30: 20) (/572 = 8.7%)

2D 19:30: 92 (11:30: 46) (/425 = 21.6%)

2D 22:00: 64 (11:30: 14) (/156 = 41%!)

 

3D 17:00: 40 (11:30: 12) (/322 = 12.4%)

3D 20:20: 169 (11:30: 74) (/572 = 29.5%)

3D 22:30: 35 (11:30: 9) (/425 = 6.6%)

 

So total: 450 (11:30: 175) (/2472 = 17.9%)

 

Totals for the evening shows:

Saturday: 535

Sunday: 663

Thursday: 171

Friday: 275 (235+40 for the 5 pm showings)

 

Using the comps the days would be:

Saturday -> 202k

Sunday -> 197k

Thursday -> 237k

Friday -> 196-229k (no idea what Friday actually was, would be really helpful to know)

 

It's obviously early in the day and I expect when the showings happen the final number to be around 300-325. (LOL, it's going to end up around 400 probably). It ended at 450... Mmmh.

 

So thinking if this would be true in any way this Wend was something along the lines of:

90k

120k

160k (which would be 370k for TFS) (I know comps point towards 200k, but I think that the cinema over performed today).

So would need a 180k Sunday for 550k, so I'd say it still looks likely to happen. In some cinemas today was on par with last Saturday apparently.

Honestly hoping for today coming in on the high end and tomorrow do incredible numbers too, so this Wend could be above 600k but I doubt that will happen. But I guess 550k is a good guess. Tomorrow morning we will know more.

 

Will do this one final time tomorrow and then won't do it again because I would probably need to do that in at least 10-15 to get some reliable data and I am not really willing to put that much time into it.

 

200k would be way over what it would need for 550k, because it would only need 140k on Sunday. Despite theoretically the north having rather good weather today. Might just be that the two days before underperformed a lot!

 

 

 

 

Edited by Taruseth
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4 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

3rd trend:

 

Lion King: 600k

Pets 2: 115k

Spider-Man: 100k

Yesterday: 55k

Die Drei !!!: 45k

Only a 35% drop for TLK.

Really want to know what the days of the Wend look like, but we don't have daily tracking😑

 

Also apparently the Marvel movies together now have 37.5M admissions and €395M in Germany.

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26 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Also apparently the Marvel movies together now have 37.5M admissions and €395M in Germany.

Am Freitag haben die 23 Filme der Infinity War-Saga des Marvel Cinematic Universe (Phase I-III) in Deutschland die 37,5 Mio. Besucher-Marke (€395 Mio. Box Office) erreicht...

 

😉

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On 7/27/2019 at 11:33 AM, Taruseth said:

Me trying to predict Saturday based on the evening shows:

2D 17:30: 50 (11:30: 20) (/572 = 8.7%)

2D 19:30: 92 (11:30: 46) (/425 = 21.6%)

2D 22:00: 64 (11:30: 14) (/156 = 41%!)

 

3D 17:00: 40 (11:30: 12) (/322 = 12.4%)

3D 20:20: 169 (11:30: 74) (/572 = 29.5%)

3D 22:30: 35 (11:30: 9) (/425 = 6.6%)

 

So total: 450 (11:30: 175) (/2472 = 17.9%)

 

Totals for the evening shows:

Saturday: 535

Sunday: 663

Thursday: 171

Friday: 275 (235+40 for the 5 pm showings)

 

Using the comps the days would be:

Saturday -> 202k

Sunday -> 197k

Thursday -> 237k

Friday -> 196-229k (no idea what Friday actually was, would be really helpful to know)

 

It's obviously early in the day and I expect when the showings happen the final number to be around 300-325. (LOL, it's going to end up around 400 probably). It ended at 450... Mmmh.

 

So thinking if this would be true in any way this Wend was something along the lines of:

90k

120k

160k (which would be 370k for TFS) (I know comps point towards 200k, but I think that the cinema over performed today).

So would need a 180k Sunday for 550k, so I'd say it still looks likely to happen. In some cinemas today was on par with last Saturday apparently.

Honestly hoping for today coming in on the high end and tomorrow do incredible numbers too, so this Wend could be above 600k but I doubt that will happen. But I guess 550k is a good guess. Tomorrow morning we will know more.

 

Will do this one final time tomorrow and then won't do it again because I would probably need to do that in at least 10-15 to get some reliable data and I am not really willing to put that much time into it.

 

200k would be way over what it would need for 550k, because it would only need 140k on Sunday. Despite theoretically the north having rather good weather today. Might just be that the two days before underperformed a lot!

 

 

 

 

OV 2D 19:30: 34 (11:30: 12) (/156 = 21.8%)

 

2D 17:30: 107 (11:30: 11) (/572 = 18.7% )

2D 19:30: 98 (11:30: 17) (/425 = 23.1%)

 

 

3D 17:00: 126 (11:30: 26) (/322 = 39.1%)

3D 20:20: 84 (11:30: 14) (/572 = 14.7%)

 

Total: 449 (11:30: 80) (/2047 =21.9%)

 

BELOW yesterday by ONE freaking ticket, damn, damn, damn, counted each of them like five times but couldn't find that one extra admissions.

So here today is flat with yesterday, for whatever it's worth.

Taking a middle approach to yesterday would mean:

90k

120k

180k

180k

 

Would be 570k. But as in the south today was significantly stronger than yesterday I also could see something like

90k

120k

180k

225k

 

for 615k

 

I really hope that it did even better than this, but probably the 600k will turn out rather correct.

Edited by Taruseth
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10 hours ago, Taruseth said:

OV 2D 19:30: 34 (11:30: 12) (/156 = 21.8%)

 

2D 17:30: 107 (11:30: 11) (/572 = 18.7% )

2D 19:30: 98 (11:30: 17) (/425 = 23.1%)

 

 

3D 17:00: 126 (11:30: 26) (/322 = 39.1%)

3D 20:20: 84 (11:30: 14) (/572 = 14.7%)

 

Total: 449 (11:30: 80) (/2047 =21.9%)

 

BELOW yesterday by ONE freaking ticket, damn, damn, damn, counted each of them like five times but couldn't find that one extra admissions.

So here today is flat with yesterday, for whatever it's worth.

Taking a middle approach to yesterday would mean:

90k

120k

180k

180k

 

Would be 570k. But as in the south today was significantly stronger than yesterday I also could see something like

90k

120k

180k

225k

 

for 615k

 

I really hope that it did even better than this, but probably the 600k will turn out rather correct.

good drop for tlk ?

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27 minutes ago, john2000 said:

good drop for tlk ?

The theatre I tried to use to predict dailies was behaving kinda weird this Wend. Sunday should be the biggest day of the Wend by quite a margin as in the south some theatres did double compared to yesterday and some even where above last Sunday (highest day of the previous Wend).

But I'd say that its definitely looking at 600+k 2nd Weekend despite having the hottest and one of the hottest days ever on Thursday and Friday and a rather hot Saturday in parts having just a 35% drop is pretty impressive. We will know more tomorrow morning.

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19 hours ago, Taruseth said:

OV 2D 19:30: 34 (11:30: 12) (/156 = 21.8%)

 

2D 17:30: 107 (11:30: 11) (/572 = 18.7% )

2D 19:30: 98 (11:30: 17) (/425 = 23.1%)

 

 

3D 17:00: 126 (11:30: 26) (/322 = 39.1%)

3D 20:20: 84 (11:30: 14) (/572 = 14.7%)

 

Total: 449 (11:30: 80) (/2047 =21.9%)

 

BELOW yesterday by ONE freaking ticket, damn, damn, damn, counted each of them like five times but couldn't find that one extra admissions.

So here today is flat with yesterday, for whatever it's worth.

Taking a middle approach to yesterday would mean:

90k

120k

180k

180k

 

Would be 570k. But as in the south today was significantly stronger than yesterday I also could see something like

90k

120k

180k

225k

 

for 615k

 

I really hope that it did even better than this, but probably the 600k will turn out rather correct.

It did even better.

Monday morning estimates for the Wend:

TLK: 630k (-31.7% / -44.3%) (Total 2110k -> Mon-Wed = 350k)

Pets 2: 130k (-12.1%) (Total: 1650k)

Spidey: 105k (-27.6%) (Total 1410k so about 40% above final for Homecoming)

Yesterday: 60k (-14.2%)

Die Drei !!! (55k)

Pain and Glory: 32.5k

 

 

Abikalypse: 10k

 

So TLK probably €5850k ≈ $6600k

 

 

 

Edited by Taruseth
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I was checking Inglorious Basterds numbers, it did huge in Germany. How come so?

I mean it is anti-Nazi and have many German killings, so how do it fare that well. In fact, how do anti-Nazi films do there? What's general preception of people towards Hitler.

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8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I was checking Inglorious Basterds numbers, it did huge in Germany. How come so?

I mean it is anti-Nazi and have many German killings, so how do it fare that well. In fact, how do anti-Nazi films do there? What's general preception of people towards Hitler.

Was the biggest foreign market for Schindler List as well

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22 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I was checking Inglorious Basterds numbers, it did huge in Germany. How come so?

I mean it is anti-Nazi and have many German killings, so how do it fare that well. In fact, how do anti-Nazi films do there? What's general preception of people towards Hitler.

Uhh. The mainstream opinion is that Hitler was the worst person to ever exist and the 1930s to 1945 is the greatest shame Germany will ever have.

 

But there are pockets that will kind of sort of not hate Hitler. If you look at the partial mockumentary "Er ist Wieder Da". Look Who's Back.


There was a period after Hitler's dictatorship that Germany was kind of taciturn about Nazi atrocities. But then American media such as the Holocaust miniseries in the 1970s reached Western Germany, and many people were shocked to learn historical truths about their own country, from the recent past.

 

I personally am not of German nationality, but I have known a German person in my lifetime, who was my language teacher. And I used to live there when I was young.

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