BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[Aristis]

This 90M yearly admissions number doesn't really seem right - the weekly Top10 has a drop of 17% which would (with 122,3M in 2017) lead to 101,5M. The real number should be around that. Still awful...

But if there's anything positive with that number, than that this will lead to around €880M for the year which would be the worst since 2008 - they couldn't even say something like "2nd biggest year ever", which they did last year referring to €€€... There has to be some kind of wake up!

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday estimates very stable. Here in Austria, weather might seriously dampen the weekend since there's so much snow, many multiplexes catering to the suburbs will be hard to reach.

[Taruseth]

20 hours ago, Aristis said:

This 90M yearly admissions number doesn't really seem right - the weekly Top10 has a drop of 17% which would (with 122,3M in 2017) lead to 101,5M. The real number should be around that. Still awful...

But if there's anything positive with that number, than that this will lead to around €880M for the year which would be the worst since 2008 - they couldn't even say something like "2nd biggest year ever", which they did last year referring to €€€... There has to be some kind of wake up!

Yeah, I agree with you, pointed out the same thing in the international topic.

[miketheavenger]

3rd trend:

 

#1: Der Junge...: 420k

#2: Aquaman: 275k

#3: Mary Poppins: 200k

#4: 100 DInge: 155k

#5: The Grinch: 150k

#6: Bumblebee: 125k

#7/8: Fantastic Beasts 2/Feuerwehrmann Sam 3: 115k

#9: Bohemian Rhapsody: 100k

#10: Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss: 85k

[Aristis]

1 hour ago, miketheavenger said:

#7/8: Fantastic Beasts 2/Feuerwehrmann Sam 3: 115k

That's pretty great for FB2 again, FB1 had 88k the same WE and 3,34M total. So FB2 is nearly 400k in front.

[IndustriousAngel]

actuals tomorrow but it seems domestic biodrama DJmadfL had an excellent hold; 440k is a 19% drop, excellent! Aquaman also better than in estimates, 290k means a 31% drop.

[Taruseth]

10 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

actuals tomorrow but it seems domestic biodrama DJmadfL had an excellent hold; 440k is a 19% drop, excellent! Aquaman also better than in estimates, 290k means a 31% drop.

And BR really above 100k, apparently. YEAAAAAAH.

[IndustriousAngel]

BR has a realistic shot at 3mil total, with awards season as fuel it just might crawl over that mark!

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Der Junge muss an die frische Luft	446.312	773	577	1.340.463	11.606.140	-18	2
2	Aquaman	291.522	503	580	1.393.951	15.591.675	-33	3
3	Mary Poppins Returns	191.771	632	303	880.380	7.346.838	-29	3
4	100 Dinge	154.981	537	289	1.170.833	9.964.763	-28	5
5	The Grinch	145.044	694	209	2.170.003	16.984.172	-42	6
6	Bumblebee	126.518	506	250	580.194	5.772.816	-29	3
7	Fantastic Beasts 2	116.961	475	246	3.728.160	37.546.195	-35	8
8	Bohemian Rhapsody	104.643	583	179	2.546.802	23.553.189	-16	10
9	Feuerwehrmann Sam - Filmheld	89.447	531	168	116.653	734.765	-	1
10	Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss - Dschungel	82.666	517	160	228.284	1.530.897	-15	2
11	Spider-Verse	55.016	462	119	304.985	2.532.869	-13	4
12	Tabaluga	52.039	619	84	430.261	2.895.793	-22	5
13	Mortal Engines	47.180	404	117	394.441	4.309.009	-42	4
14	The Wife	28.888	101	286	30.340	252.682	-	1
15	Colette	27.641	96	288	32.091	254.645	-	1
16	Astrid	25.653	195	132	199.551	1.631.684	-27	5
17	Unknown User 2	25.485	244	104	239.506	2.074.088	-20	5
18	Shoplifters	20.773	92	226	56.416	470.651	-9	2
19	25 km/h	20.332	212	96	880.296	7.216.616	-15	10
20	The Nutcracker	19.458	328	59	1.074.729	8.952.098	-38	10

Very nice weekend with 8 releases >100k admissions, all of them holdovers! (In Austria, business was not bad but "Der Junge …" doesn't work here at all so overall a lot weaker).

Next weekend: Der Junge muss an die frische Luft should stay safely on top but there are two releases aiming for >100k admissions - domestic thriller comedy Kalte Füße (I liked the trailer, would be nice if this could break out) and the lamtest Robin Hood - let's see if one of them can reach #2.

[IndustriousAngel]

in other news, Austria's December numbers are final and it was one of the worst in recent history (2007 was lower) which makes the 4th quarter the worst one in recent history, as was the whole year 2018. We were down:

-13% from 2017

-16% from 2016

and -22% from 2015 ...

while we could say that it can only go upwards from here (and there is some more blockbuster potential) the industry stays strangely quiet - no alarm bells ringing, no big push for wider audiences - it seems as if everybody has decided simply to let the cinemas die slowly.

 

[Aristis]

Some news to the yearly numbers from InsideKino:

The Top10 WE, which normally accounts for around 76% to 79% of the whole yearly admissions, had a total of 77,3M admissions. That would lead to 98M to 102M admissions in 2018. However, since the OpenAir Season was great last year MarkG believes the yearly numbers could be a bit more than that. We will get actuals in February.

 

With those numbers 2018 admissions would be down around 17% from 2017, which itself already was pretty bad...

[Aristis]

As my last post was about 2018 this one is dedicated to 2019, so it's time to wipe away the tears and to be optimistic since it can't get much worse 🤐

 

I tried to guess which movies could be the most successfull of the year and made a list of all (potential) 2M+ movies. And to me it seems 2019 will be better again!

 

SW9 should be the biggest among 2018 movies. The 8th fell 35% from SW7. This one, being made by JJ againd and being the last of the new Trilogy, should increase again. After SW7 9,06M and SW8 5,91M this one should do around 6,5M or more.

 

TLK is one of some movies I find extremely hard to predict. WW it seems predictions are extremely high, for Germany I don't see it doing that great. Among other Disney LA-remakes BATB (3,43M) - the biggest of the remakes - and TJB (1,87M) - one that contains talking animals - may be the best comparison.

TJB (the Original, including re-releases, has 27,4M admissions and is the biggest movie ever) didn't connect to German moviegoers, maybe because the original is rather light toned with widely known and beloved songs. TLK, probably not being that different from the original, may therefore fare better. With 11,9M admissions the 1994 TLK is the 8th biggest movie ever.

Maybe it can have 4M, though I could see everything from 2M to 6M. But maybe hype will reach even Germany.

 

Frozen2 is the next one I find hard. The first legged itself to 4,77M. Elsa and Anna are still present in advertisement and seem to be beloved by children. I see it doing around 4M too, though if children (teens and parents) go crazy for this it could even do something like Minions (6,95M). It could be not stupid enough for Germany though .

 

With Pets2 there'll be another big animation movie. The first with 3,85M was one of three animations being very close to each other in 2016. Since many Illumination sequels increased and Pets was well recieved I think, it may be able to reach 4M too. However, since Germany almost always disappoints, I'll be a bit more conservative and say around 3,5M.

 

Av4. The Avengers movies increased with every following part (2,25M - 2,42M - 3,4M). However, the 3rd one even surpassed SM2&3 and may have found a ceiling. Av4 will probably land close to that, and even though it could reach 3,5M I'll say it may do just 3,25M.

 

F&F9. After the 7th hitting the Top of its Franchise with 4,19M, F&F8 decreased to 3,24M. The 9th part of the series should decrease again and should get somewhere around 2,5M.

 

It2. It was huge in 2017 and surpassed all expectations with 3,17M. The 2nd should decrease but will still be big for a horror movie. It may land around 2,25M.

 

HttyD3 will be another animation that should surpass 2M. The 2nd had a big increase from the 1st (2,73M vs 1,63M). The 3rd is now opening against The Lego Movie 2 (I really don't know why...). Therefore it may not reach the 2nd part but it should be able to reach 2,25M too.

 

Aladdin is a wild card. It could do something like Cinderella (1,07M) or get closer to BATB (3,43M). I think it'll fall just around 2M. That may be conservative since the original Alladin was the most successfull Disney animation beside TLK and therefore bigger than BATB92 (6,35M vs 6,18M).

 

The last, and maybe the biggest wild card, I think will reach 2M is the sequel of the french 2014 movie Qu'est-ce qu'on a fait au Bon Dieu? (Known as Monsieur Claude und seine Töchter in Germany or maybe Serial (Bad) Weddings in english speaking countries). The first one was a surprise hit in Germany with 3,93M admissions. You could argue that nobody needed a sequel to that movie and this one could be something niche. But its issues are still important (maybe even more than 2014) and it'll probably be a better racism-centered comedy again than Willkommen bei den Hartmann's was. I see it doing anything 2M+. I could be totally wrong and it'll bomb or it'll do even better than this.

 

[Aristis]

Continuation:

There are some more movies that may have the potential to reach the mark of 2M (Not all those that will reach 1M though). I'll just list them and add my prediction and comparable movies admissions:

 

Jumanji2 1,75M (Jumanji1, 2M)

Ralph2 1,75M (Ralph 1,04M) If most other countries would not have been that disappointing I'd say it'll do 2M+...

Toy Story 4 1,75M (TS1 2,53M, TS2 2,85M, TS3 1,6M) This is hard to predict...

Dumbo 1,5M

The Lego Movie 2 1,5M (LM1 1,31M, Lego Batman 0,9M) I would wish for this to reach 2M - I really loved the 1st - but as I wrote, it opens alongside Ralph2 and Lego Batman didn't do great either...

  Isn't it romatic? Edit: I thought it could do great but as I learned it isn't released in german cinemas...

Glass 1,5M? (Split 1,22M)

Alita 1,5M?

 

Most of those probably won't though... So that's my forecast

Edited January 8, 2019 by Aristis

[Poseidon]

9 minutes ago, Aristis said:

 

Isn't it romatic? 1,5M? (I don't know why, but such comedies tend to do well )

 

 

Amazing that you mention it, because I thought this movie might do quite well in Gemrany.

 

So guess what? Warner sold it to Netflix and the movie is not getting a theatrical release.

This is getting beyond ridiculous.

They do everything to keep the female crowd from coming to theaters.

Edited January 8, 2019 by Poseidon

[Giesi]

Why did Toy Story never click with the german audience?

[Taruseth]

20 hours ago, Giesi said:

Why did Toy Story never click with the german audience?

Don't really know, I just don't really the think the films are that great, yeah, they are good, really good, but that's it.

[el sid]

Saw the trailer for "Kalte Füße" today, really not bad, quite funny. Reviews are also ok so far, not overwhelming, but not hurting if the film connects with the audience. And we know that the aspiration level of the audience here is not the highest .
My guess is that it will have more admissions than Robin Hood, especially in total admissions.

[IndustriousAngel]

first weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: DJmadfL - 350k (-22%)

#2: Aquaman - 160k (-45%)

#3: RobinHood - 130k (ok)

#4: BR - 100k (-4%, wow)

[el sid]

And some very unspectacular Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases:

Robin Hood (released in 432 theaters): 12k/116k US$
Kalte Füße / Colt Feet (a German comedy, 373): 7k → 75k OW predicted in the first trend, I hoped for more
Polaroid (210): 5.5k → 52.5k OW predicted
Heavy Trip (under 100): 2.8k
Ben Is Back (75): 1.3k

The holdovers (no school holidays anymore so the drops look worse than they will be over the whole weekend):

Der Junge muss an die frische Luft: 34k (actuals last Thursday 85k)
Aquaman: 16k (60k)

BR: 10k (?k)
100 Dinge: 7k (32k)

[Omni]

On 1/8/2019 at 10:43 PM, Giesi said:

Why did Toy Story never click with the german audience?

Because the movies are great. The 3rd in particular, and that is - in fact - the lowest grosser.