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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

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The first trend from insidekino.de:

#1 Der Junge...300k
#2 Glass 275k (Split had 271k/with previews 294k) - a little bit under the expectations but not bad
#3 Second Act 125k
#4 Immenhof 125k - both Second Act and Immenhof with previews
#5 Aquaman 100k
#6 BR 80k

And some Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases:

Glass (released in 563 theaters): 34k/347k US$ - so at least #1 of all films yesterday
Second Act/Manhattan Queen (370): 10k
Immenhof – Das Abenteuer eines Sommers (581) 5.5k
Mary Queen of Scots (185): 4.4k → 45k OW in the first trend
The Front Runner (103): ?k → only 2.5k OW

The holdovers:

Der Junge muss an die frische Luft: 28k (actuals last Thursday 34k)
Aquaman: 9k (16k)

Edited by el sid
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On 1/12/2019 at 2:46 PM, Brainbug said:

 

Dont think so. The Oscars arent really relevant here. BR is probably just enjoying really good WOM.

That's one side. The other reason is a ridiculously bad schedule that literally has nothing to offer in what usually is a very busy time for german theaters. 

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3 hours ago, Poseidon said:

That's one side. The other reason is a ridiculously bad schedule that literally has nothing to offer in what usually is a very busy time for german theaters. 

 

Thats true. 2018's end of the year line-up was pretty weak all things considered.

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The second trend from insidekino.de:

#1 Der Junge 280k
#2 Glass 250k - it stays disappointing here :( 
#3 Immenhof 135k
#4 Second Act 130k - ok
#5 Aquaman 100k
#6 BR 80k
#7 Robin Hood 60k
#8 100 Dinge 50k
#9 Kalte Füße 50k
#10 Mary Queen of Scots 45k
#11 MPR 45k
#12 Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss 35k
#13 Polaroid 30k
#14 The Wife 27.5k

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1 hour ago, el sid said:

The second trend from insidekino.de:

#1 Der Junge 280k
#2 Glass 250k - it stays disappointing here :( 
#3 Immenhof 135k
#4 Second Act 130k - ok
#5 Aquaman 100k
#6 BR 80k
#7 Robin Hood 60k
#8 100 Dinge 50k
#9 Kalte Füße 50k
#10 Mary Queen of Scots 45k
#11 MPR 45k
#12 Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss 35k
#13 Polaroid 30k
#14 The Wife 27.5k

i'm sorry..this is admission or money???...

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The Monday update looks a little bit better for Glass:

#1 Glass 255k
#2 Der Junge...247.5k/2.2M
#3 Immenhof 120k/155k
#4 Aquaman 102.5k/1.755M
#5 Second Act 90k/130k
#6 BR 82.5k/2.820M
#7 Robin Hood 57.5k/220k
#8 Feuerwehrmann Sam 57.5/255k
#9 100 Dinge 50k/1.350M
#10 Kalte Füße 50k/155k
#11 Mary Queen of Scots 45k/50k
#12 MPR 42.5k/1.045M
#13 Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss 30k/320k
#14 Polaroid 30k/95k
#15 The Wife 25k/125k

#16 FB2 22.5k/3.850M
#17 The Grinch 20k/2.260M

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6 hours ago, el sid said:

The Monday update looks a little bit better for Glass:

#1 Glass 255k
#2 Der Junge...247.5k/2.2M
#3 Immenhof 120k/155k
#4 Aquaman 102.5k/1.755M
#5 Second Act 90k/130k
#6 BR 82.5k/2.820M
#7 Robin Hood 57.5k/220k
#8 Feuerwehrmann Sam 57.5/255k
#9 100 Dinge 50k/1.350M
#10 Kalte Füße 50k/155k
#11 Mary Queen of Scots 45k/50k
#12 MPR 42.5k/1.045M
#13 Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss 30k/320k
#14 Polaroid 30k/95k
#15 The Wife 25k/125k

#16 FB2 22.5k/3.850M
#17 The Grinch 20k/2.260M

FB2 basically fell of a cliff after the holidays...

Still should reach close to 3.9M admission and €39.25M≈$44.6M

 

 

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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Glass

256.309

564

454

256.309

2.431.176

-

1

2

Der Junge muss an die frische Luft

249.721

853

293

2.202.045

18.768.585

-27

4

3

Immenhof - Das Abenteuer eines Sommers

120.333

581

207

154.698

1.085.080

-

1

4

Aquaman

103.401

505

205

1.756.698

19.501.026

-39

5

5

Second Act

90.439

370

244

129.146

1.069.220

-

1

6

Bohemian Rhapsody

82.727

594

139

2.820.971

26.125.096

-27

12

7

Feuerwehrmann Sam - Plötzlich Filmheld!

57.693

614

94

256.771

1.628.547

-30

3

8

Robin Hood

57.395

434

132

218.112

1.793.947

-48

2

9

100 Dinge

50.039

489

102

1.352.410

11.504.476

-41

7

10

Kalte Füße

49.305

382

129

154.905

1.281.812

-43

2

11

Mary Queen Of Scots

44.001

185

238

49.973

456.593

-

1

12

Mary Poppins Returns

42.813

557

77

1.047.164

8.648.247

-49

5

13

Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss - Ab in den Dschungel

29.521

555

53

317.716

2.107.965

-37

4

14

Polaroid

29.442

212

139

92.363

808.658

-42

2

15

The Wife

26.407

158

167

124.938

1.017.210

-27

3

16

Fantastic Beasts 2

23.574

293

80

3.827.620

38.506.044

-51

10

17

The Grinch

21.045

432

49

2.259.349

17.626.795

-58

8

18

Bumblebee

18.279

388

47

669.358

6.599.375

-59

5

19

Yuli

15.957

72

222

20.309

161.695

-

1

20

Tabaluga

15.179

446

34

476.985

3.192.112

-38

7

Three new releases in the Top5 but overall the weekend was a bit disappointing; with such a variety of releases overall attendance should have been higher … Glass definitely on the lower end of expectations but still an ok number. Immenhof on the other side went higher than expected, never underestimate girls and horses!

Next weekend: Some more interesting releases, among them Creed 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet. The first Creed opened high but dropped steep, not a good sign - 100k OW would be ok I guesss. WiR was not that big too, 1mil total was underwhelming for a Disney CGI; maybe this year Ralph can do better, at least it should win the weekend!

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Only 100k OW for Creed II would be absolutely disappointing. The first movie opened (also only) to 142k (150k with previews) and had 341k total admissions, so factor 2.28. Creed II will again be frontloaded I guess.
But this time I hope for a Drago effect. I mean, every country saw an increase OW (often it doubled the result of the first one) why should Germany be the exception? Ok, it's Germany but a decrease?
Since one or two years almost all films have meager reservation numbers in the theaters I used to look at, so if a fan-driven film has decent reservation and sold ticket numbers, it doesn't automatically mean that it will have a great OW. Still, so far it looks good for Creed II in 'my' theaters (mathäser, Cinecitta, cinemaxx), much better than the sales and reservations for Ralph II (but e.g. mathäser is a twen and male dominated theater so a film like Creed II has to work here. Creed II already got a middle big instead of a small cinema hall on Thursday - „small“ means 200+ seats - and they added another show on Saturday).
In the mathäser Creed had reservations for Thursday at the same time: 162, Creed II has 451, in the Cinecitta it were 142 in 2016, this time it's 349 (and thanks to our diligent theater reporters I could look up all these numbers ;)).
I'm not sure how it looks for Ralph II. According to earlier theater reports at insidekino.de/forum it also had good presales but I can't assess what a family film would need. But this weekend could indeed become a bit interesting.
Ralph II will be released in 599 theaters (first one had 512) and Creed II in 350 theaters (the first one had 326 first week and 372 at a max). Instant Family was also scheduled but now it says 31.1., probably too much competition.

 

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As an exception, some Thursday estimates (because in 2016, the Creed estimates were not far off):
Back then, Creed was good for 18k admissions in the estimates and 22k was the actual Thursday number. Today the member of insidekino.de counted 30k admissions. Let's hope that this halfway holds which would be fine :).
Ralph II had - evening only - almost 10k estimated admissions. I have no idea if this is good, bad, mediocre.
Glass (actual Thursday number last week was 34k admissions) held ok with almost 20k estimated admissions.
The Favourite had 2.5k admissions and BR seeems to have another good hold with ca. 6k admissions (last Thursday 8k).

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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: Ralph2 - 375k (very good number considering the first one's OW)

#2: Creed2 - 225k, excellent

#3: Junge - 200k (-20% but was overestimated last Fri too)

#4: Glass - 175k (-32%, hmm)

No other release >100k admissions

Are you sure it's a good start for creed 2 ? No sarcasm. It's just that i don't know how German BO works. Thanks

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Ralph II is also doing much better than I thought after its muted presales!

And some Thursday actuals (source: Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases:
Creed II (released in 350 theaters): 30k/312k US$
Ralph Breaks The Internet: 21k/193k US$ (released in 599 theaters, first movie had 180k admissions OW)
The Favourite (102): 5k → 42.5k OW in the first trend
A Dog's Way Home (201): 1.6k → 32.5k OW in the first trend
Beautiful Boy (56): 1.1k

The holdovers:
Der Junge muss an die frische Luft: 23k (actuals last Thursday 28k)
Glass: 20k (actuals last Thursday 34k)
Aquaman: 6k (9k)

Edited by el sid
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9 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: Ralph2 - 375k (very good number considering the first one's OW)

#2: Creed2 - 225k, excellent

#3: Junge - 200k (-20% but was overestimated last Fri too)

#4: Glass - 175k (-32%, hmm)

No other release >100k admissions

With that hold shouldn't Junge be able to get to something around 3.3M...

Would be around 2450k (probably a little less after that weekend) And then add like 4x the weekend (that would mean adding 800k for 3.25M...

 

7 hours ago, Laurent K said:

Are you sure it's a good start for creed 2 ? No sarcasm. It's just that i don't know how German BO works. Thanks

It is. Nothing extraordinary of course.

If you take a look at the top movies last year (partly guesses for final number)

FB2 3.9M (Now: 3.828M)

IW: 3.4M

Junge: 3.25M (2.2M) (maybe I am overestimating it and it will end closer to 3M)

BR: 3.2M (2.82M)

Fifty S. 3M

HT3: 2.54M

JW2: 2.4

Grinch: 2.3 (2.26)

DP2: 2.24M

I2: 2.19M

MM2: 2.18M

Aqm: 2M

Jim Knopf: 1.81M

BP: 1.8M

 

Those are mainly  Superhero (IW, DP2, I2, Aqm and BP (this is btw really good for Superheros) or Animation (HT3, Grinch, I2) or they are some kind of Drama (BR, Junge, MM2, Jim Knopf) and Harry Potter (Germans tend to embrace Fantasy)

The only weird film is certainly FS...

In other words there isn't much interest for a movie like Creed here.

 

And in general Germany is about half dead right now, last year was one of the lowest ever, maybe even the lowest ever, with around 100M adm. in total.

Germany's numbers appear much bigger in international threads because of really high ticket prices compared to most countries but Scandinavia, GB and Japan (and USA)

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Taruseth said:

With that hold shouldn't Junge be able to get to something around 3.3M...

Would be around 2450k (probably a little less after that weekend) And then add like 4x the weekend (that would mean adding 800k for 3.25M...

 

It is. Nothing extraordinary of course.

If you take a look at the top movies last year (partly guesses for final number)

FB2 3.9M (Now: 3.828M)

IW: 3.4M

Junge: 3.25M (2.2M) (maybe I am overestimating it and it will end closer to 3M)

BR: 3.2M (2.82M)

Fifty S. 3M

HT3: 2.54M

JW2: 2.4

Grinch: 2.3 (2.26)

DP2: 2.24M

I2: 2.19M

MM2: 2.18M

Aqm: 2M

Jim Knopf: 1.81M

BP: 1.8M

 

Those are mainly  Superhero (IW, DP2, I2, Aqm and BP (this is btw really good for Superheros) or Animation (HT3, Grinch, I2) or they are some kind of Drama (BR, Junge, MM2, Jim Knopf) and Harry Potter (Germans tend to embrace Fantasy)

The only weird film is certainly FS...

In other words there isn't much interest for a movie like Creed here.

 

And in general Germany is about half dead right now, last year was one of the lowest ever, maybe even the lowest ever, with around 100M adm. in total.

Germany's numbers appear much bigger in international threads because of really high ticket prices compared to most countries but Scandinavia, GB and Japan (and USA)

 

 

 

 

I didn't know things were so bad in germany. Here in France, we had 200 M admissions last year. Thanks and let us know how Glass and Creed are doing in Germany, please.

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