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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: FJG3 stays on top for 4th weekend, super hold for OrientExpress JL drops hard from BvS

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and here are first weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: It - 175k (-40%)

#2: BR - 125k (-30%)

#3: Snowman - 110k (incl. previews, prob. 100k fpr the weekend)

#4: Geostorm - 80k (also incl. previews)

#5: Cars3 - 65k (-24%)

 

remember that BR was way overestimated last Friday - might come in lower this time again.

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And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

Holdovers:
It: 20.200 (actuals last Thursday were 45k)
Blade Runner: 19.150 (30k)
Kingsman 2: 7k (13k)
So the three films are chronically overestimated in the estimates, annoying. BR with the best hold but as mentioned, it could lose some power over the weekend, seems to be a Thursday and Friday film, I don't know why. 

New Releases:
The Snowman: 14.100
Geostorm: 10.5k – unsurprisingly a bit up from estimates probably thanks to walk ups
The Square (only 100 theaters, good reviews): 4k → 27.5k OW predicted in the first trend
Borg/McEnroe: 1.200 → 25 OW predicted

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The second trend (better for almost every movie):

#1 It 175k (-40%)
#2 The Snowman 125k
#3 BR 110k (-30%)
#4 Geostorm 85k
#5 Cars 2 65k (-26%)
#6 Kingsman 2 55k (-33%)
#7 AA 32.5k (-35%)
#8 Ninjago 30k (-35%)
#9 The Square 30k
#10 Victoria & Abdul 25k (-13%)
#11 MLP 25k (-33%)
#12 Captain Underpants 25k (stays flat, +2.5%)
#13 Borg/McEnroe 25k

Edited by el sid
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well, that should put Snowman firmly over 100k for the 4day-weekend, at least something. And yes, for whatever reason, BR seems to be a Thruesday film. Maybe the audience is significantly older than for your usual SciFi actioner, which would explain the lower weekend share.

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The Monday update looks again a little bit better for most movies:

It 170k/2.845M
The Snowman 125k/135k
Blade Runner 117.5k/685k
Geostorm 100k/105k
Cars 3 100k/970k
Kingsman 2 60k/925k
Lego 45k/610k
My Little Pony 37.5k/210k
AA 32.5k/205k
The Square 32.5k/35k
Victoria & Abdul 30k/280k
Captain Underpants 25k/55k
High Society 22.5k/560k
Unter deutschen Betten 22.5k/135k
Happy Family 20k/495k

Edited by el sid
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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

It

170.103

701

243

2.856.873

27.004.428

-42

4

2

The Snowman

125.593

439

286

134.817

1.197.090

-

1

3

Blade Runner 2049

118.439

677

175

684.164

7.687.910

-24

3

4

Geostorm

100.693

440

229

103.976

1.066.073

-

1

5

Cars 3

99.906

675

148

970.403

7.440.712

+14

4

6

Kingsman 2

61.011

448

136

923.724

8.561.855

-25

5

7

The Lego Ninjago Movie

44.584

614

73

610.458

4.417.682

-4

5

8

My Little Pony

38.207

560

68

210.511

1.398.152

+2

3

9

American Assassin

33.181

339

98

126.638

1.012.651

-34

2

10

The Square

33.070

104

318

35.907

316.627

-

1

11

Victoria & Abdul

30.290

311

97

279.776

2.310.493

+5

4

12

Captain Underpants

26.260

454

58

56.689

406.435

+8

2

13

High Society

21.824

319

68

560.479

4.565.323

-16

6

14

Unter deutschen Betten

21.784

383

57

134.190

1.118.364

-10

3

15

Happy Family

19.280

278

69

496.023

3.454.642

+30

9

16

The Circle

18.649

208

90

489.281

4.056.569

-3

7

17

Die Pfefferkörner und der Fluch …

17.351

340

51

268.080

1.683.641

+43

7

18

Happy End

16.680

98

170

45.771

362.941

-9

2

19

Rock My Heart

15.372

366

42

142.781

1.010.725

+2

4

20

Bullyparade

11.992

224

54

1.883.068

15.191.503

-14

10

 

A lot of increases for holdovers, but the openers were too soft to make it an excellent weekend. It had the hardest drop and while it may still enjoy some nice helloween days, it will be at a disadvantage next weekend because of the big opener.

 

Next weekend: Fack Ju Göhte 3 may not make critics howl with joy but theaters are preparing for a monster opening, and while 2mil for the weekend are never easy  to reach, 1,5mil are the absolute bottom of expectations for the teen comedy. Jigsaw is timed for helloween but, same as It, there will be a considerable shortage of screens so the release date might not turn out as clever as it seemed. (Not only are screens at a premium, but I'd guess Jigsaw and FJG audiences are extremely overlapping).

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Sounds like sales for FjG3 are finally picking up. Presales had been a bit lackluster, but the same had been true for the last one as well. It isn't really a franchise that counts all that much on presales, or even stuff like midnight previews.

 

Regardless of what happens, there will finally be really really big numbers to follow again. Even if the opening would "disappoint", it would still be decisively larger than any opening of the recent past. Well, at least since TFA and FjG2.

 

Looking back at 2015, wow what a year that was in terms of opening weekends. TFA with 2.14m, FjG2 with 2.115m, Spectre 1.68m, Fifty Shades of Grey 1.35m, FF7 1.33m, and finally Mockingjay 2 with 1.14m. Six movies opening above 1m admisions, two even above 2m. Comparing that to the recent past: 2013 had three above 1m, 2014 had two, 2016 barely one, and 2017 so far only has one as well.

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Friday estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: FJG3 - 1.6mil admissions

#2: Jigsaw - 110k

#3: It - 80k (-55%)

#4: Snowman - 70k (-45%)

#5: BR2049 - 65k (-45%)

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FJG3 below the second film, which was expected, but it's still a monster and maybe it will increase over the weekend. Also solid for Jigsaw. The holdovers are obviously dying, but that's what happens when you have a mega opener.

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On 10/25/2017 at 7:38 PM, George Parr said:

Sounds like sales for FjG3 are finally picking up. Presales had been a bit lackluster, but the same had been true for the last one as well. It isn't really a franchise that counts all that much on presales, or even stuff like midnight previews.

 

Regardless of what happens, there will finally be really really big numbers to follow again. Even if the opening would "disappoint", it would still be decisively larger than any opening of the recent past. Well, at least since TFA and FjG2.

 

Looking back at 2015, wow what a year that was in terms of opening weekends. TFA with 2.14m, FjG2 with 2.115m, Spectre 1.68m, Fifty Shades of Grey 1.35m, FF7 1.33m, and finally Mockingjay 2 with 1.14m. Six movies opening above 1m admisions, two even above 2m. Comparing that to the recent past: 2013 had three above 1m, 2014 had two, 2016 barely one, and 2017 so far only has one as well.

2015's awesome was roughly on par with 2001, when 3 movies in that year passed 10m admission 

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The website wasn‘t available for me in the last two days. Damn.
 

These were the Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film). A really long weekend including Wednesday has begun, so there wasn‘t much pressure on the Thursday.

Fack ju Göhte 3 (released in 808(!) theaters, and no, critics do not howl with joy ;) and the score is a little bit under the last two films so let‘s see if WOM is also worse; FJG 2 had 403k admissions on its opening day, FJG counted 871.911 moviegoers OW, FJG2 had 2.115.200 fans OW): 280k – so remarkable under part II but as mentioned above, the very long weekend may cause that people prefer other days than the opening day
Jigsaw (355, #2-4 had very similar admissions and made ca. 7.5M US$, then the numbers decreased but Saw 3D followed the worldwide trend and made again 11M US$ and had 180k/800k admissions): 20k – not bad. I wonder how frontloaded it is but in the few theaters where I looked, the reservations were quite stable over the next days.

The Little Vampire 3D: (291, mixed reviews): 2.850
Maudie (75, mostly good reviews): 3.150
no numbers so far for God‘s Own Country (ca. 30 theaters, good and very good reviews)
 

Holdovers:

It: 11k (actuals last Thursday 20k)
BR: 10.5k (19k)
The Snowman: 10k (14k)
Ok holds given the large competition and also the lose of cinema halls because FJG3 captured almost all.
By the way I noticed that PotC5 is still playing in a few theaters and also had some reservations ;) .

 

And the rest of the second trend (including Sunday as usual, not the long weekend till Wednesday):
Cars 3: 50k -50%
Geostorm: 42.5k -58%
The Little Vampire 3D: 40k (up from 27.5k)
Kingsman 2: 30k -51%
Maudie: 25k

Edited by el sid
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The final trend (better for almost all movies):

#1 FJG3 1.6M
#2 Jigsaw 130k
#3 It 85k
#4 The Snowman 80k
#5 BR 60k
#6 Cars 3 60k
#7 Geostorm 50k
#8 Der kleine Vampir 45k
#9 Kingsman2 30k
#10 Ninjago 27.5k
#11 The Square 25k
#12 Maudie 25k
 

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Sunday seems to have been excellent, 1.725 mil admissions are reported for FJG3 and most other releases went up from estimates, too. And with strong weekdays and Thor3 opening tomorrow, theaters are bound to stay packed - finally a relief after the horrible summer!

 

edit: Austria had excellent numbers, too - FJG3 seems to have scored the biggest opening day ever with >66k admissions on Thursday (including midnight shows)

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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Fack Ju Göhte starts at #1 with 1.725.872 admissions

> best start of the year by quiet a margin

> best start in the month of October

> 3rd best opening weekend ever for a german movie (Traumschiff Surprise 2.164.909, FJG2 2.155.200)

> people in the inside.kino forum are pointing out that it‘s in fact backloaded compared to FJG2, tomorrow we have a national holiday and today a lot of people use this day as a bridge day. One of the top 10 biggest opening weeks is possible.

 

I swear, if this movie ends up being the most successful movie of the year.....

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32 minutes ago, Giesi said:

Fack Ju Göhte starts at #1 with 1.725.872 admissions

> best start of the year by quiet a margin

> best start in the month of October

> 3rd best opening weekend ever for a german movie (Traumschiff Surprise 2.164.909, FJG2 2.155.200)

> people in the inside.kino forum are pointing out that it‘s in fact backloaded compared to FJG2, tomorrow we have a national holiday and today a lot of people use this day as a bridge day. One of the top 10 biggest opening weeks is possible.

 

I swear, if this movie ends up being the most successful movie of the year.....

 

One the one hand, im glad that this movie proves theres still life left in the german box office. Otoh, i dislike this series and hope, that SW8 can top it.

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51 minutes ago, Giesi said:

Fack Ju Göhte starts at #1 with 1.725.872 admissions

> best start of the year by quiet a margin

> best start in the month of October

> 3rd best opening weekend ever for a german movie (Traumschiff Surprise 2.164.909, FJG2 2.155.200)

> people in the inside.kino forum are pointing out that it‘s in fact backloaded compared to FJG2, tomorrow we have a national holiday and today a lot of people use this day as a bridge day. One of the top 10 biggest opening weeks is possible.

 

I swear, if this movie ends up being the most successful movie of the year.....

and we have 31/10 and 1/11 holidays to come

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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Fack Ju Göhte 3

1.725.872

808

2.136

1.725.872

15.402.670

-

1

2

Jigsaw

137.252

355

387

137.252

1.254.366

-

1

3

It

90.514

609

149

2.993.245

28.274.142

-47

5

4

The Snowman

84.481

442

191

257.071

2.246.919

-33

2

5

Cars 3

77.059

662

116

1.078.196

8.212.124

-23

5

6

Blade Runner 2049

66.650

479

139

798.903

8.941.462

-44

4

7

Geostorm

53.148

441

121

186.982

1.874.829

-47

2

8

Der kleine Vampir

50.702

294

172

50.702

344.468

-

1

9

Kingsmen 2

31.374

328

96

972.896

9.018.088

-49

6

10

The Lego Ninjago Movie

30.774

525

59

658.583

4.745.347

-31

6

11

The Square

28.579

108

265

79.828

689.223

-14

2

12

My Little Pony

26.922

541

50

250.104

1.655.122

-30

4

13

Maudie

19.510

80

244

31.367

225.167

-

1

14

Victoria & Abdul

18.089

254

71

314.586

2.575.982

-40

5

15

Happy Family

18.056

257

70

523.031

3.630.757

-6

10

16

Captain Underpants

17.980

454

40

86.074

598.853

-32

3

17

Mathilde

13.007

88

148

13.007

142.221

-

1

18

Die Pfefferkörner und der Fluch …

12.546

273

46

290.066

1.814.784

-28

8

19

Django - Ein Leben für die Musik

12.477

86

145

15.567

120.914

-

1

20

Die Unsichtbaren - Wir wollen leben

11.082

54

205

16.313

124.962

-

1

 

Fantastic weekend, with this opening FJG3 should be on ist way to safely more than 6mil admissions! Not that bad for Jigsaw either, considering the competition.

 

Next weekend: Thor3 is already in theaters and is doing ok, the first ones managed 1,1 and 1,4 mil admissions, maybe the 3rd one can cross 1,5 (Germany likes comedy stuff so this should be doing fine but of course it's up against a monster in the same demo ...). Other releases are short on screens …

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FJG3 stands at 2.175mio admissions after 5 days, so around 450k adm on Monday. The midweek record (Monday-Wednesday) of SW7 (over 1,27mio adm) could be in danger. Even though SW8 is in a good position to bring the record back into the family with 25.12. / 26.12. on Monday/Tuesday this year.

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