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BO Germany/Austria: Frozen2 #1 with massive OW

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, john2000 said:

where lion king will end in dollars ? 60 ?

Thinking $53-55M** (€48-50M* ≈ 5.15-5.375M admissions). $60M ≈ €54M ≈ 5.8M admissions, while that isn't impossible I'd say that has about a 5% chance of happening. Though obviously one great hold next weekend, TLK being flat suddenly could change quite something. If TLK really is at 4.4M after the weekend, than it could be at 4.5M after the weekdays and then with a great weekend hold helped by no major new openers it could be at 4.75M after the 6th weekend. So I don't see it ending below 5M anymore and would say that with about 90% certainty it will beat Endgame (5.13M).

Which is way ahead of what I initially thought before the OWend ($35-40M) which even after the OWend would have been a reasonable but slightly pessimistic expectations.

 

I also don't want to get to excited and than overshoot by quite some amount considering I thought Endgame could beat Spider-Man but now will fall short by only around 50-60k ad.

 

** ER €1 ≈ $1.11

* ATP €9.3 might be too low, ATP over the first 4 weekends was €9.4297 while it was €9.7039 for the 4th weekend. Thinking it will drop due to the higher 2D share for the rest of its run but not by too much as the gross will concentrate more on the weekends.

Edited by Taruseth
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23 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

And be at best mediocre

On a serious note: Being good doesn't prevent a movie from being big in Germany (LOTR :wub:). But it just doesn't really seem to help either...

 

There's really much crap doing good numbers here (After one of only14 movies to have more than 1M admissions yet :wacko:). But I really wonder what sort of movie could make people want to watch it massively.

 

Those are the biggest movies since 2010:

 

Admissions

Gross in €

 

OWeek

 

1

9.160.438

64.048.325

Intouchables

442.390

2012

2

9.060.311

102.576.103

SW7

3.269.814

2015

3

7.825.760

65.883.386

Skyfall

2.644.828

2012

4

7.734.265

63.040.489

Fack Ju Göhte 2

2.718.948

2015

5

7.411.899

54.997.906

Fack Ju Göhte

1.197.246

2013

6

7.274.964

58.506.360

Honig im Kopf

1.030.699

2014

7

7.089.386

67.400.030

Spectre

2.459.198

2015

8

6.945.769

57.929.442

Minions

1.353.739

2015

9

6.700.208

52.041.305

Ice Age 4

1.497.726

2012

10

6.689.410

68.909.540

TH1

1.542.460

2012

11

6.499.514

58.571.390

HP7.2

2.341.762

2011

12

6.136.279

53.347.812

Fack Ju Göhte 3

2.895.338

2017

13

6.098.029

64.831.146

TH2

1.671.133

2013

14

6.066.455

64.914.921

TH3

1.676.036

2014

http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/D2010-2019.htm

*Italic ones are German

 

Apart from it not being that many: 8 out of 14 are from 2012 and 2015 and since then there was just one in 2017 (I hope there's at least SW9 this year getting there). And 11 of them are sequels (or prequels), though that's probably a Trend everywhere...

 

And to answer your post: At least half of those aren't that bad ;)

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Posted (edited)
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1 hour ago, Aristis said:

On a serious note: Being good doesn't prevent a movie from being big in Germany (LOTR :wub:). But it just doesn't really seem to help either...

 

There's really much crap doing good numbers here (After one of only14 movies to have more than 1M admissions yet :wacko:). But I really wonder what sort of movie could make people want to watch it massively.

 

Those are the biggest movies since 2010:

 

 

 

Admissions

 

 

Gross in €

 

 

 

 

 

OWeek

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

9.160.438

 

 

64.048.325

 

 

Intouchables

 

 

442.390

 

 

2012

 

 

2

 

 

9.060.311

 

 

102.576.103

 

 

SW7

 

 

3.269.814

 

 

2015

 

 

3

 

 

7.825.760

 

 

65.883.386

 

 

Skyfall

 

 

2.644.828

 

 

2012

 

 

4

 

 

7.734.265

 

 

63.040.489

 

 

Fack Ju Göhte 2

 

 

2.718.948

 

 

2015

 

 

5

 

 

7.411.899

 

 

54.997.906

 

 

Fack Ju Göhte

 

 

1.197.246

 

 

2013

 

 

6

 

 

7.274.964

 

 

58.506.360

 

 

Honig im Kopf

 

 

1.030.699

 

 

2014

 

 

7

 

 

7.089.386

 

 

67.400.030

 

 

Spectre

 

 

2.459.198

 

 

2015

 

 

8

 

 

6.945.769

 

 

57.929.442

 

 

Minions

 

 

1.353.739

 

 

2015

 

 

9

 

 

6.700.208

 

 

52.041.305

 

 

Ice Age 4

 

 

1.497.726

 

 

2012

 

 

10

 

 

6.689.410

 

 

68.909.540

 

 

TH1

 

 

1.542.460

 

 

2012

 

 

11

 

 

6.499.514

 

 

58.571.390

 

 

HP7.2

 

 

2.341.762

 

 

2011

 

 

12

 

 

6.136.279

 

 

53.347.812

 

 

Fack Ju Göhte 3

 

 

2.895.338

 

 

2017

 

 

13

 

 

6.098.029

 

 

64.831.146

 

 

TH2

 

 

1.671.133

 

 

2013

 

 

14

 

 

6.066.455

 

 

64.914.921

 

 

TH3

 

 

1.676.036

 

 

2014

 

 

http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/D2010-2019.htm

*Italic ones are German

 

Apart from it not being that many: 8 out of 14 are from 2012 and 2015 and since then there was just one in 2017 (I hope there's at least SW9 this year getting there). And 11 of them are sequels (or prequels), though that's probably a Trend everywhere...

 

And to answer your post: At least half of those aren't that bad ;)

 

 

After is awful, haven't watched the movie but tried to read the books on wattpad...

 

Being good only helps if the movie is really exceptionally good like LOTR

No idea why Toy Story never worked here.

 

That are 3x Back Ju Göhte (a stupid light hearted comedy), 3x Hobbit, 2x James Bond, then two funny animation movies (minions and Ice Age 4).

 

Honestly thinking being light hearted and silly helps here, real life is sad and stressful enough no need to see that in movies too. 

Or on the other hand Intouchables is a rather emotional, heartfelt but still hopeful movie.

 

SW and Harry Potter is something different I guess, big fantasy/sci-fi movies (like Hobbit) tend to do well here too. 

the yearly winner this year are:

2010: HP7

2011: HP8

2012: Intouchables 

2013: Fack Ju Göhte

2014: Honig im Kopf

2015: SW - TFA

2016: SW - RO

2017: Fack Ju Göhte 3

2018: Fantastic Beast 2

2019: Endgame -> TLK -> RTOS (my expectations for the yearly winner).

That would be:

HP: 3x

SW: 3x

FJG: 2x

and then two other winners.

 

LOTR was in another dimension compared to movies today.

 

But I find it so weird that 2012 and 2015 were so strong (#1-4, #7-10) are from those two years only two movies not from those two years and this year won't change that. Frozen 2 and IX most likely won't get above 6.5M (for Frozen 2 grossing 5M admissions would be incredible).

For Germany to stay Germany, Frozen 2 and IX and TLK all need to get above 5.15M admissions so no superhero movie in the top 3.

Edited by Taruseth
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Posted (edited)

Saturday numbers (CS Bremen):

Hollywood:

2D 13:50: 25 / 322 (12:15: 6)

2D 16:30: 46 / 425 (12:15: 16)

2D 19:40: 173 / 572 (12:15: 91)

2D 20:15: 189 / 425 (12:15: 77)

2D 22:40: 45 / 425 (12:15: 6)

 

Total: 478 / 2169 (12:15: 177) +170.1%

Comp to yesterday: + 130 / nc => +37.4%!

 

 

Toy Story 4:

3D 14:10: 23 / 279 (12:15: 😎

3D 16:45: 31 / 279 (12:15: 4)

 

2D 14:30: 93 / 425 (12:15: 18 )

2D 17:10: 76 / 572 (12:15: 17)

2D 19:30: 79 / 279 (12:15: 24)

2D 22:30:  18 / 280 (12:15: 3)

 

Total: 320 / 2114 (12:15: 74) +332.4%

Comp to yesterday: + 177 / nc => +123.8%!

 

 

Hobbs & Shaw:

2D 13:30: 0 / 296 (12:15: 0)

2D 16:50: 73 / 296 (12:15: 36)

2D 19:20: 180 / 425 (12:15: 52)

2D 22:10: 101 / 279 (12:15: 0)

 

Total: 354 / 1296 (12:15: 88) + 302.3%

Comp to yesterday: + 130 / +129 => +58%

 

 

The Lion King:

3D 13:40: 17 / 425 (12:15: 8 )

3D 16:20: 32 / 170 (12:15: 10)

3D 20:20: 104 / 322 (12:15: 20)

 

2D 14:20: 61 / 572 (12:15: 14)

2D 17:30: 82 / 322 (12:15: 9)

2D 20:00: 132 / 294 (12:15: 39)

2D 22:20: 28 / 156 (12:15: 4)

 

Total: 456 / 2261 (12:15: 104) +338.5%

Comp to yesterday: + 205 / +14 => +81.7%

Afternoon and evening showings (after 5pm: 346 that's just 22.2% behind the 3rd saturday and 23.1% behind the 2nd Saturday and just 35.3% behind the OWend Saturday)

 

Bold one is the show with the highest amount of admissions sold. Shows the stark difference between the other three and TS4. TS4 is stronger than the others during the day but the others get stronger during the late afternoon/early evening and all three have the strongest showing at 8pm. Furthermore it shows that TLK is skewing towards late afternoon and evening while Hollywood and H&S more towards evening and night.

 

The Friday and Saturday jumps are so good because school started on Thursday so they don't paint the general picture in Germany. None the less I am optimistic about all movies despite better weather in souther Germany, but I doubt that Hollywood will increase. Not certain about TLK could happen but not sold on it. Thinking TS4 might actually increase but probably by only 5k. H&S shouldn't change. Tomorrow won't be a nice day so because most parts of Germany are supposed to have warm weather, only the north is supposed to still be rather rainy. TLK needs to have had a really, really nice Friday and an incredible Sunday for it to still get to 325k.

 

Another interesting thing is that TLK got really close to Hollywood today, let's see what happens tomorrow when TLK and TS4 afaik get a morning showing too. And if that foreshadows what will happen next weekend. The next two weekends should have a single movie opening above 200k, actually I think all but Good Boys and Playmobil will even open above 100k and both of those could barely open above that.

What I want to say with that is, TLK could theoretically - if Hollywood is holding only good but TLK continues to hold really well -  return to the #1 for two more weeks before It 2 opens during the first September weekend. Next weekend we could be looking at a 255k vs 250k situation. Unless Hollywood gets good WoM then it could stay above 300k.

Or not weather forecast for next weekend actually looks warm, like really warm.

 

But now let's take a different look and only look at the showings before 3pm so only midday showings, no early afternoon and no afternoon/evening showings:

Hollywood: 25

TS4: 116

H&S: 0

TLK: 78

Total: 219

 

Afternoon showings (between 3pm and 6pm):

Hollywood: 46

TS4: 107

H&S: 73

TLK: 114

Total: 340

 

Evening showings (6pm - 10pm);

Hollywood: 362

TS4: 79

H&S: 180

TLK:  232

Total: 853

 

Night showings (after 10pm):

Hollywood: 45

TS4: 18

H&S: 101

TLK: 28

Total: 192

 

Bold one is strongest in the window, also shows that overall the evening showings are the most important part of the day.

What isn't reflected in the bold ones is that TLK and H&S peak in the evening showings too.

 

 

 

Edited by Taruseth
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Posted (edited)

TLK and H&S up again, this time by 15k and 20k and Leber down again by 15k.

3rd insidekino trend:

Hollywood: 405k+70k

TLK: 325k (Yes, actually looks like it will the 325k during the weekend)

TS4: 225k

H&S: 180k

Leber: 125k

Pets 2: 75k

Benjamin B.: 37.5k

Yesterday: 37.5k

Die drei !!!: 27.5k

Spidey: 27.5k

Und wer nimmt den Hund?: 25k

 

Counting today again, don't know if I will do all considering I already missed the morning showing of TLK but got both for TS4 which were really strong 90 tickets for TS4 in those two alone.

While today the weather is supposed to be really hot (like 33-34 °C) in southern Germany I still think that the rest will be able to make up for it and push TLK, TS4 and maybe Pets 2 a little higher. Maybe towards 335k, 235k and 80k or so. 

 

Damn, midday showings are insane for TS4 and TLK, both sold 200+ tickets for the 2pm 2d showing alone!.

 

Hollywood:

OV 2D 19:40: 52 / 280

2D 13:50: 69 / 322

2D 16:30: 112 / 425

2D 19:40: 91 / 572

2D 20:15: 71 / 425

 

Total: 395 / 2024

Comp to yesterday: - 83 / -145 => -17.4%

 

 

Toy Story 4:

3D 11:40: 16 / 279

3D 14:10: 46 / 279

3D 16:45: 30 / 279

 

2D 11:50: 74 / 572

2D 14:30: 228 / 425 (53.6% sold pretty insane)

2D 17:10: 77 / 572

2D 19:30: 13 / 279

 

 

Total: 484 / 2685

Comp to yesterday: + 164 / + 571 => +51.25%

 

 

Hobbs & Shaw:

2D 13:30: 14 / 296

2D 16:50: 98 / 296

2D 19:20: 89 / 425

 

 

Total: 201 / 1017

Comp to yesterday: - 153 / -279=> -43.2%

 

 

The Lion King:

3D 13:40: 101 / 425 (just a quick reminder yesterday this was 15 tickets)

3D 16:20: 115 / 170 (67.6% sold!!!!!)

3D 20:20: 43 / 322

 

2D 11:10: ??? / ??? (thinking this might have done well, probably missed 50-75 tickets here)

2D 14:20: 225 / 572 (3 tickets behind TS4)

2D 17:30: 118 / 322

2D 20:00: 45 / 294

 

 

Total: 647 / 2105 

Comp to yesterday: + 191 / -156=> +41.9%

I think the 11:10 show was in a 425 seats room so seat count would actually have increase by quite something today. So maybe 700 tickets on the whole days

 

 

morning showings (before noon)

Hollywood: 0

TS4: 90

H&S: 0

TLK: 50-75

Total: 140-165

 

midday showings (noon to 3pm):

Hollywood: 69

TS4: 274

H&S: 14

TLK: 326

Total: 683

 

Afternoon showings (between 3pm and 6pm):

Hollywood: 112

TS4: 107

H&S: 98

TLK: 233

Total: 550

 

Evening showings (6pm - 10pm);

Hollywood: 214

TS4: 13

H&S: 89

TLK:  88

Total: 404

 

Night showings (after 10pm):

No night showings on Sunday

 

 

TLK interestingly today had higher midday showings than TS4.

TLK won the day by a big margin. 

Today was a great day for TS4 and TLK, I think the family movies could end up a little higher.

 

Edited by Taruseth
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23 hours ago, Aristis said:

On a serious note: Being good doesn't prevent a movie from being big in Germany (LOTR :wub:). But it just doesn't really seem to help either...

 

There's really much crap doing good numbers here (After one of only14 movies to have more than 1M admissions yet :wacko:). But I really wonder what sort of movie could make people want to watch it massively.

 

Those are the biggest movies since 2010:

 

 

 

Admissions

 

 

Gross in €

 

 

 

 

 

OWeek

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

9.160.438

 

 

64.048.325

 

 

Intouchables

 

 

442.390

 

 

2012

 

 

2

 

 

9.060.311

 

 

102.576.103

 

 

SW7

 

 

3.269.814

 

 

2015

 

 

3

 

 

7.825.760

 

 

65.883.386

 

 

Skyfall

 

 

2.644.828

 

 

2012

 

 

4

 

 

7.734.265

 

 

63.040.489

 

 

Fack Ju Göhte 2

 

 

2.718.948

 

 

2015

 

 

5

 

 

7.411.899

 

 

54.997.906

 

 

Fack Ju Göhte

 

 

1.197.246

 

 

2013

 

 

6

 

 

7.274.964

 

 

58.506.360

 

 

Honig im Kopf

 

 

1.030.699

 

 

2014

 

 

7

 

 

7.089.386

 

 

67.400.030

 

 

Spectre

 

 

2.459.198

 

 

2015

 

 

8

 

 

6.945.769

 

 

57.929.442

 

 

Minions

 

 

1.353.739

 

 

2015

 

 

9

 

 

6.700.208

 

 

52.041.305

 

 

Ice Age 4

 

 

1.497.726

 

 

2012

 

 

10

 

 

6.689.410

 

 

68.909.540

 

 

TH1

 

 

1.542.460

 

 

2012

 

 

11

 

 

6.499.514

 

 

58.571.390

 

 

HP7.2

 

 

2.341.762

 

 

2011

 

 

12

 

 

6.136.279

 

 

53.347.812

 

 

Fack Ju Göhte 3

 

 

2.895.338

 

 

2017

 

 

13

 

 

6.098.029

 

 

64.831.146

 

 

TH2

 

 

1.671.133

 

 

2013

 

 

14

 

 

6.066.455

 

 

64.914.921

 

 

TH3

 

 

1.676.036

 

 

2014

 

 

http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/D2010-2019.htm

*Italic ones are German

 

Apart from it not being that many: 8 out of 14 are from 2012 and 2015 and since then there was just one in 2017 (I hope there's at least SW9 this year getting there). And 11 of them are sequels (or prequels), though that's probably a Trend everywhere...

 

And to answer your post: At least half of those aren't that bad ;)

The decline of German cinema cannot be clearer with this chart when none of them hit 10m admission and you have 6 of them in 2000s and 3 of them in 1990s(Pretty woman got 10m in Germany!). I can only find 1980s as another decade that feature zero 10m hit. 

 

The worst is, the top non-hollywood film isn't a German film either!

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3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

The decline of German cinema cannot be clearer with this chart when none of them hit 10m admission and you have 6 of them in 2000s and 3 of them in 1990s(Pretty woman got 10m in Germany!). I can only find 1980s as another decade that feature zero 10m hit. 

 

The worst is, the top non-hollywood film isn't a German film either!

The early 2000 were really strong, 3 movies above 10m in 2001.

The first year to have a higher number in total sold than 2001 is 1969.

The german cinema has always been in the 100-140 dam corridor the 1980s were an awful decade for cinemas as out of the 10 lowest years (below 115m) 1984-1990+1992 are part of it, only years outside of that time are 2018 and 1976.

From 1992 to 2001 the adm count increase from 106M to 178M, I still don't know what lead to a growth like that. And dropped back to 105M in 2018 again.

But after cinema got slowly killed by higher ticket prices, changing international taste, television, streaming services and I don't know what.

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Monday morning estimates (Blickpunkt:film and insidekino):

Hollywood:435k (€4500k ≈ $4920k) +70k

TLK: 330k* (€3100k ≈ $3390k) (Total above 4400k adm.**)

TS4: 245k (€2000k ≈ $2185k)

H&S: 195k (€1850k ≈ $2025k)

Leber: 132.5k (€1100k ≈ $1200k)

Pets 2: 82.5k 

 

*best 5th weekend of the year and as the previous best week was 249k its also the best 5th week already. Should be the best 5th weekend since Fack Ju Göhte 2 in October 2015 (359k), a bit above TFA's of 324k.

 

** in € it should have entered the Top50 this weekend, needs 40M for that. Most likely (like 98% likely) it won't enter the Top 100 ever in admissions because therefore it would need 5.863M.

Edited by Taruseth
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13 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

The decline of German cinema cannot be clearer with this chart when none of them hit 10m admission and you have 6 of them in 2000s and 3 of them in 1990s(Pretty woman got 10m in Germany!). I can only find 1980s as another decade that feature zero 10m hit. 

 

The worst is, the top non-hollywood film isn't a German film either!

 

9 hours ago, Taruseth said:

The early 2000 were really strong, 3 movies above 10m in 2001.

The first year to have a higher number in total sold than 2001 is 1969.

The german cinema has always been in the 100-140 dam corridor the 1980s were an awful decade for cinemas as out of the 10 lowest years (below 115m) 1984-1990+1992 are part of it, only years outside of that time are 2018 and 1976.

From 1992 to 2001 the adm count increase from 106M to 178M, I still don't know what lead to a growth like that. And dropped back to 105M in 2018 again.

But after cinema got slowly killed by higher ticket prices, changing international taste, television, streaming services and I don't know what.

The thing is, in the 80s it's just the western German numbers and the 90s had some economical problems. Being that bad now while economy is quite good is even worse.

(Btw. does anybody know since when it's the united German numbers?

1989 [101,2M], 1990 [102,5M], 1991 [120M], 1992 [105,9M]

I would suspect that it's since 1991 but I really don't know... Finding numbers for the eastern Germany isn't easy)

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4 minutes ago, Aristis said:

 

The thing is, in the 80s it's just the western German numbers and the 90s had some economical problems. Being that bad now while economy is quite good is even worse.

(Btw. does anybody know since when it's the united German numbers?

1989 [101,2M], 1990 [102,5M], 1991 [120M], 1992 [105,9M]

I would suspect that it's since 1991 but I really don't know... Finding numbers for the eastern Germany isn't easy)

70s and 60s were just western germany's numbers too... But not as bad as the 80s.

But the late 90s, early 2000s weren't the best time economically either, none the less cinema was doing well. And even 2008/2009 weren't that bad despite a bad economy.

 

Question is when will we have the first year below 100M? 2020?

 

 

I think 1991 would be the first year.

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6 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

70s and 60s were just western germany's numbers too... But not as bad as the 80s.

But the late 90s, early 2000s weren't the best time economically either, none the less cinema was doing well. And even 2008/2009 weren't that bad despite a bad economy.

 

Question is when will we have the first year below 100M? 2020?

 

 

I think 1991 would be the first year.

I know about that, numbers are just western Germany for 50s to 80s. It was just to compare the 80s to today.

 

I found some of the DDR numbers. Though sadly only some mentioned in articles and no full statistics...

year / BRD / DDR / whole Germany

1988 / 108,9M / ~70M / ~178,9M

1989 / 101,2M / 65M / 166,2M

 

So if 120M in 1991 is the number for united Germany than it'd be quite a big drop that is probably mostly due to much lower numbers in the east (much higher TP in united Germany, depressed market...). Maybe the growing numbers in late 90s and early 00s are partly eastern German recovery? Though that would probably just be 10M more or something like that. But I think it's quite interesting that 2001 is around as big as 1988 accounting for whole Germany.

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1 hour ago, Aristis said:

I know about that, numbers are just western Germany for 50s to 80s. It was just to compare the 80s to today.

 

I found some of the DDR numbers. Though sadly only some mentioned in articles and no full statistics...

year / BRD / DDR / whole Germany

1988 / 108,9M / ~70M / ~178,9M

1989 / 101,2M / 65M / 166,2M

 

So if 120M in 1991 is the number for united Germany than it'd be quite a big drop that is probably mostly due to much lower numbers in the east (much higher TP in united Germany, depressed market...). Maybe the growing numbers in late 90s and early 00s are partly eastern German recovery? Though that would probably just be 10M more or something like that. But I think it's quite interesting that 2001 is around as big as 1988 accounting for whole Germany.

DDR was a lot stronger than I thought (due to low TP but none the less).

 

Thinking the 90s and early 00s numbers might have been more because Germany as a whole recovered, the east from the shock of reuniting and the west from the somewhat weaker economy in the late 80s. Even if there were some crisis around that time. 

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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

438.998

610

720

509.962

5.198.077

-

1

2

The Lion King

331.868

642

517

4.404.538

41.180.256

-18

5

3

Toy Story 4

238.309

542

440

240.359

1.927.139

-

1

4

Fast & Furious - Hobbs & Shaw

196.177

638

307

1.269.633

11.836.873

-31

3

5

Leberkäsjunkie

133.781

311

430

761.172

6.113.802

-18

3

6

Pets 2

83.248

699

119

2.214.973

16.994.889

-14

8

7

Benjamin Blümchen

46.770

581

80

279.566

1.835.953

-9

3

8

Yesterday

41.222

450

92

647.382

5.421.672

-13

6

9

Die drei !!!

34.986

529

66

296.344

1.943.580

-11

4

10

Spider-Man - Far From Home

32.541

352

92

1.711.319

16.779.342

-39

7

11

Und wer nimmt den Hund?

28.726

121

237

82.167

681.187

+1

2

12

Annabelle

18.389

273

67

527.173

4.646.740

-24

7

13

Dolor y gloria

15.697

127

124

150.816

1.275.999

-19

4

14

Aladdin

13.963

191

73

1.933.605

17.476.773

-12

13

15

Fisherman's Friends

12.226

139

88

65.049

489.530

-23

2

16

Bohemian Rhapsody

11.501

94

122

3.656.052

33.567.552

-14

42

17

Five Feet Apart

10.302

194

53

625.180

4.920.922

-35

9

18

Der Junge muss an die frische Luft

7.870

73

108

3.717.295

30.803.043

-39

34

19

Celle que Vous Croyez

7.624

64

119

21.181

169.205

+1

2

20

Rocketman

5.973

107

56

659.292

5.902.546

-49

12

Some people had very high expectations but I think overall this was a good weekend. With the exception of Toy Story 4, but as mentioned, somehow this franchise never made it big in German-speaking markets, and with strong in-house comptetition it never stood a chance - Lion King otoh is doing great and will blow past the 5mil mark. Once Upon a Time … has a (slim) chance at 2mil total, it seemed to generate very good WOM. Leberkäsjunkie still strong, about 180k ahead of  last year's release in the franchise at the same point which means 1mil total is nearly locked and it has a good chance at becoming the highest-grossing entry in the series.

Next weekend: Crawl, Good Boys, Gloria Bell, Stuber, Aardvark, some local releases - a lot of interesting stuff but nothing to dethrone OuaTiH as the leader I'd say except a stellar hold from LionKing. Good Boys might make the Top3.

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1 minute ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

[...]

Some people had very high expectations but I think overall this was a good weekend. With the exception of Toy Story 4, but as mentioned, somehow this franchise never made it big in German-speaking markets, and with strong in-house comptetition it never stood a chance - Lion King otoh is doing great and will blow past the 5mil mark. Once Upon a Time … has a (slim) chance at 2mil total, it seemed to generate very good WOM. Leberkäsjunkie still strong, about 180k ahead of  last year's release in the franchise at the same point which means 1mil total is nearly locked and it has a good chance at becoming the highest-grossing entry in the series.

Next weekend: Crawl, Good Boys, Gloria Bell, Stuber, Aardvark, some local releases - a lot of interesting stuff but nothing to dethrone OuaTiH as the leader I'd say except a stellar hold from LionKing. Good Boys might make the Top3.

Agree with you, the weekend overall was good, Hollywood did good (nothing great, but good). TLK really wants to top Endgame.

 

As the weather report for next weekend looks really sunny and hot I'd say Hollywood will stay #1 quite comfortably, with meh weather TLK might have had a tiny chance but not with great weather as Hollywood will probably be a little less weather dependent.

 

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Germany Weekend 33 2019.8.16-8.18 Euro

Rank Name WKBO WKAD Scr TOBO TOAD
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood €4,513,095  438,998 720 €5,198,077  509,962
2 The Lion King €3,073,365  331,868 517 €41,180,256  4,404,538
3 Toy Story 4 €1,909,800  238,309 440 €1,927,139  240,359
4 Hobbs & Shaw €1,853,361  196,177 307 €11,836,873  1,269,633
5 Leberkäsjunkie €1,129,562  133,781 430 €6,113,802  761,172
6 The Secret Life of Pets 2 €592,392  83,248 119 €16,994,889  2,214,973
7 Yesterday €351,660  41,222 92 €5,421,672  647,382
8 Benjamin Blümchen €310,718  46,770 80 €1,835,953  279,566
9 Spider-Man: Far from Home €301,358  32,541 92 €16,779,342  1,711,319
10 Und wer nimmt den Hund? €251,781  28,726 237 €681,187 

82,167

 

India film Mission Mangal got €33,509 and 2,793 in 27 theaters 103 screens.
Avengers: Endgame cume to €57,386,670 and 5,113,182 AD.
BTS - Bring the Soul: The Movie have a -98% huge flop ,now total €590,804 and 48,262
Iceland blockbuster Under the Tree close in €78,141 and 12,192AD.
 

Austria Weekend 33 2019.8.16-8.18 Euro

Rank Name WKBO WKAD Scr TOBO TOAD
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood €443,035  39,463 88 €810,099  73,059
2 The Lion King €242,945  23,188 95 €6,966,819  675,537
3 Hobbs & Shaw €179,782  16,987 69 €1,949,806  185,840
4 Leberkäsjunkie €155,782  16,745 88 €1,435,668  162,243
5 Toy Story 4 €128,668  13,421 73 €207,579  21,694
6 The Secret Life of Pets 2 €27,360  3,171 73 €2,349,055  276,638
7 Spider-Man: Far from Home €20,579  1,964 38 €2,513,819  234,773
8 Annabelle Comes Home €17,142  1,691 34 €911,003  95,455
9 Yesterday €15,007  1,641 51 €885,024  100,932
10 Benjamin Blümchen €12,581  1,740 62 €183,899  24,905
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Posted (edited)

With yesterday's numbers, the Top 3 should be OuTiH (-20%), LionKing (-35%) and Leberkäs (-5% ?!?!); TS4 seems to implode (no detailed numbers but might drop >50%) - strange; let's see what insidekino reports; have to go now.

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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Posted (edited)

Great weather, awful first Trend, I hope it gets better...

 

OUATIH 200k (-54%/-61%) 895k

TLK 110k (-67%) 4,64M

Leberkäs... 90k (-33%) 920k

Good Boys 95k

TS4 60k (-75%) Well... :(

H&S 60k (-69%)

 

Edit: Thursday numbers aren't that bad (OUATIH 50k, TLK 26k) so those predictions have extremely low multiplers...

Edited by Aristis
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Aristis said:

Great weather, awful first Trend, I hope it gets better...

 

OUATIH 200k (-54%/-61%) 895k

TLK 110k (-67%) 4,64M

Leberkäs... 90k (-33%) 920k

Good Boys 95k

TS4 60k (-75%) Well... :(

H&S 60k (-69%)

 

Edit: Thursday numbers aren't that bad (OUATIH 50k, TLK 26k) so those predictions have extremely low multiplers...

So weekdays for TLK were 125k.

 

Some further thursday numbers and €/$ for Hollywood and TLK:

Hollywood: 50k (€450k ≈ $500k)

TLK: 26k (€230k ≈ $255k)

Leberkäs: 23k (€200k ≈ $220k)

Good Boys: 20k (€155k ≈ $170k)

H&S: 14.5k (€130k ≈ $145k)

 

Crawl: 4k (€35k ≈ $39k)

Stuber: 3.6k (€30k ≈ $33k)

Gloria: 2k (€13.5k ≈ $15k)

I am Mother: 1k (8.6k ≈ $9.55k)

 

This are the comps to last Thursday:

On 8/16/2019 at 7:39 AM, Taruseth said:

Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt:film):

Hollywood: 100k (€1000k ≈ $1110k)

TLK: 75k (€660k ≈ $732.5k) (-11.7%)

TS4: 55k (€435k ≈ $482.5k)

Leber...: 50k (€385k ≈ $427.5k) (+61%)

H&S: 40k (€350k ≈ 390k) (-27.3%)

 

Apparently TLK barely dropped and locally the drops a lot harsher than overall.

Not certain the Leberk. number is correct, that would be an insane increase.

I think the movies will end the weekend in this order too.

 

So Hollywood dropped 50%, TLK dropped 65%, Leberkäs doesn't matter as it had a holiday last week in Bavaria and Bavaria already had really hot weather last Saturday and Sunday so the IM last weekend was like a 2.5 or so.

As you see TS4 wasn't even reported so it isn't part of the top 5, so probably around 12-13k, which would be a drop of 76%.

 

 

Thinking that Hollywood and TLK might have some hope ending up a little higher, I have my doubts about TS4. What makes it even worse, TS4. TS4 was probably around 305k after it's first week, so after it's 2nd weekend it would be at 365k (that would be the opening weekend of TS3). It would also mean that it might loose screens faster as cinemas will try to rather keep TLK, so we might be looking at a final total below 800k. Needs to increase nicely next weekend for that to happen considering if it would fade away after this weekend the target would be 500k and let's not talk about that considering it would be a 70% dropped compared to TS3 and something like 75% drop in $.

TLK's chance of getting higher than Endgame have been greatly hurt this weekend, none the less if it is able to increase next weekend there would still be a really solid chance. Problem for TLK is that so many movies are opening and it's in its 6th weekend.

 

Furthermore this weekend for TS4 will be the first 2nd weekend ever to be below 100k, previously it was Arlo & Spot with 118k which was the first 2nd weekend below 150k. Highly likely that it will replace Arlo&Spot as the lowest grossing Pixar movie, unless it is able to jump back up next weekend, none the less it would only pass Arlo&Spot and as the 2nd worst.

Edited by Taruseth
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Small correction for September 2015-August 2019 the actual list would need to be:

SW TFA: 9.1M

FJG2: 7.7M

Spectre: 7.1M

FJG3: 6.1M

SW TLJ: 5.9M

 

FJG opened in 2013. And if you carefully look at this list you will release that the top 3 are from 2015, at the end of May Minions would have been in fourth place, another 2015 movie, shows how strong that was compared to the last three and a half year.

#4 and #5 are both from 2017.

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Posted (edited)

Sadly only a few changes and Leber even dropped 10k, H&S is the only that increased by 5k.

Hollywood: 200k

TLK: 110k

Good Boys: 95k

Leber: 80k

H&S: 65k

TS4: 60k

Crawl: 32.5k

Stuber: 25k

 

Common wisdom would point towards TS4 still finishing around 700-800k which would be roughly a 3x so not good. But after this weekend it would need to add 5.7 times the past weekend and I honestly don't really see that happening.

Edited by Taruseth
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