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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Frozen2 #1 with massive OW

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8 hours ago, lab276 said:

Good weekend it looks like? 

For holdovers it really is. Just the Gemini Man drop isn't great...

 

I hope Joker can surprise next WE!

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Posted (edited)

Don't know why Joker should be a success, really don't see any target audience (quality of the film doesn't matter much in that respect)

Edited by IndustriousAngel

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11 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Don't know why Joker should be a success, really don't see any target audience (quality of the film doesn't matter much in that respect)

Considering that it found a large audience everywhere even in places like Japan (where the market doesn't care about superhero movies outside of Spider-man and Avengers), I have a hard time believing it won't here.

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I hope so, the market sure needs some hits, I just can't see much interest atm but will be glad if proven wrong!

 

final weekend estimates again a bit down for family releases; positive surprise could be the Bavarian comedy.

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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Gemini Man

212.134

549

386

233.808

2.526.574

-

1

2

Shaun the Sheep 2

184.194

639

288

363.181

2.523.703

+40

2

3

Angry Birds 2

141.774

643

220

404.384

2.886.790

+37

3

4

Abominable

120.866

514

235

227.463

1.706.234

+45

2

5

It 2

115.393

537

215

1.738.809

17.596.965

-13

5

6

Downton Abbey

102.995

562

183

445.147

4.076.537

-4

3

7

Eine ganz heiße Nummer 2

76.344

244

313

85.857

715.662

-

1

8

The Lion King

72.550

443

164

5.379.078

49.615.170

+36

12

9

Rambo - Last Blood

65.620

450

146

341.877

3.062.751

-22

3

10

Systemsprenger

58.802

280

210

219.562

1.770.677

+24

3

11

Ad Astra

58.259

467

125

277.024

2.545.208

-20

3

12

Deutschstunde

56.238

127

443

60.658

536.523

-

1

13

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

51.880

389

133

1.777.144

17.535.485

+2

8

14

Gut gegen Nordwind

44.634

525

85

344.791

2.963.789

-12

4

15

The White Crow

34.169

131

261

82.976

712.319

+19

2

16

Paw Patrol

33.230

381

87

117.571

591.065

-61

2

17

Toy Story 4

31.046

370

84

816.753

6.092.988

+13

8

18

Good Boys

28.512

235

121

577.312

4.572.762

+6

7

19

Ugly Dolls

22.157

298

74

22.157

154.923

-

1

20

Ready or Not

21.306

233

91

75.602

603.354

-21

2

The weekend was ok, with the only wide opener Gemini Man doing a bit better than I expected and nice increases for family fare. Also a fine  PTA for Eine ganz heiße Nummer 2.0; it seems to be the year of the Bavarian comedy!

Next weekend: Joker should take the #1 spot; weather is predicted warmer so family releases will probably suffer. I have no idea how high Joker might go but if it doubles this week's opener I'll be satisfied.

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Hi,

 

Joker:

CineStar Bremen

Still closed!! (After more than a month) Expected date of reopening: Early November.

 

CinemaxX Bremen

Preview on Wednesday 9thOctober 2019 2D:

(T-1):

OV 20:00: 226 / 232 (6 rows in the front row (special row -3 wheelchair seats)

OV 20:15: 49 / 49 (Smallest room I track)

20:30: 249 / 342

23:10: 55 / 232

Total: 579 / 855 -> 67.7%!!

BUT!: This might overperform cause the CineStar is closed and it’s the closest cinema to it (apart from some Arthouse ones and a small in a small city somewhat close)

 

CineStar Metropolis Frankfurt

Preview on Wednesday 9thOctober 2019 2D:

(T-1):

OV 20:00: 524 / 624

OV 23:00: 97 / 624

20:00: 347 / 642

23:00: 54 / 642

Total: 1022 / 2532 -> 40.4%

 

Total:

(T-1):

 

Previews: XX + 579 + 1022 = 1601

 

Only calculating Previews with Previews numbers:

Aladdin: 200 => 187k 

John Wick 3: 399 => 180k 

Godzilla: 125 => 250k 

Rocketman: 89 => 408k 

Dark Phoenix: 58 => 256k

MIBI: 68 => 245k

Spidey: 985 => 91k

 

Tomorrow I will count the numbers for the weekend if I find the time.

But quick look based on showing time.

2pm: Train wreck

5pm: Ouch

8pm: Blockbuster (shows >1/2 full or so for Thursday and Friday)

10+pm: Mmmh, not bad, but nothing great either.

 

I think 60k previews + 400k weekend should be considered a success for a DC movie.

Though the Spidey preview comp would suggest 90k previews which should lead to a 500+k weekend which would be rather big (6thbiggest this year), 400k would be 10thbiggest, I think.

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I have a veeery good feeling about this movie now. Previews and bookings for tomorow seem to be great (according to the InsideKino forum, Joker http://www.forum.insidekino.de/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=4845 and SSquad http://www.forum.insidekino.de/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=2671&start=25)

 

For example:

SSquad: 3k

Joker: 2,8k

 

SSquad opened to 500k, so to top that is totally possible. I'm hyped to see it tomorow :excited:

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Posted (edited)

Joker:

Spoiler

Wednesday 10thOctober 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) CinemaxX Bremen

Wednesday Previews:

OV 20:00: 226 / 232 

OV 20:15: 49 / 49 

20:30: 328 / 342 

23:10: 101 / 232

Total: 704 / 855 -> 82.3%!!

 

Thursday:

2D 14:30: 17 / 342

2D 17:00: 88 / 186

2D 20:30: 261 / 342

2D 22:30: 33 / 297

 

OV 2D 19:30: 162 / 297

OV 2D 23:00: 14 / 186

Total: 575 / 1650 -> 34.85% 

 

Friday:

2D 14:00: 0 / 342

2D 17:30: 40 / 342

2D 20:30: 216 / 342

2D 22:30: 51 / 297

 

OV 2D 19:30: 135 / 297

OV 2D 23:00: 13 / 186

Total: 455 / 1806 -> 25.19% 

 

Saturday:

2D 11:30: 0 / 85

2D 14:00: 4 / 342

2D 17:00: 49 / 186

2D 20:30: 154 / 297

2D 22:30: 27 / 342

 

OV 2D 20:00: 64 / 186

OV 2D 23:00: 5 / 186

Total: 303 / 1624 -> 18.66% 

 

Sunday:

2D 11:30: 0 / 85

2D 14:15: 15 / 342

2D 17:00: 23/ 186

2D 20:30: 87 / 342

2D 22:30: 0 / 297

 

OV 2D 19:30: 22 / 297

OV 2D 23:00: 0 / 186

Total: 147 / 1735 -> 8.47% 

 

Total: 1480 / 6815 -> 21.72%

Total wP: 2184 / 7670 -> 28.47%

 

Wednesday 10thOctober 2019 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt

Wednesday Previews:

OV 20:00: 586 / 624

OV 23:00: 237 / 624

20:00: 430 / 642

23:00: 264 / 642

Total: 1517 / 2532 -> 59.9%

 

Thursday:

2D 14:15: 13 / 344

2D 17:15: 112 / 344

2D 20:15: 389 / 642

2D 23:15: 50 / 642

 

OV 2D 14:00: 47 / 624

OV 2D 17:00: 99 / 624

OV 2D 20:00: 498 / 624

OV 2D 23:00: 37 / 624

 

Total: 1245 / 4468 -> 27.9%

 

Friday:

2D 14:15: 13 / 642

2D 17:15: 59 / 642

2D 20:15: 329 / 642

2D 23:15: 56 / 642

 

OV 2D 14:00: 47 / 624

OV 2D 17:00: 99 / 624

OV 2D 20:00: 396 / 624

OV 2D 23:00: 40 / 624

 

Total: 1039 / 5064 -> 20.5%

 

Saturday:

2D 14:15: 16 / 642

2D 17:15: 39 / 351

2D 20:15: 155 / 351

2D 23:15: 43 / 351

 

OV 2D 14:00: 34 / 624

OV 2D 17:00: 108 / 624

OV 2D 20:00: 289 / 624

OV 2D 23:00: 31 / 624

 

Total: 715 / 4191 -> 17.1%

 

Sunday:

2D 14:15: 12 / 642

2D 17:15: 62 / 642

2D 20:15: 63 / 642

2D 23:15: 0 / 642

 

OV 2D 14:00: 27 / 624

OV 2D 17:00: 90 / 624

OV 2D 20:00: 84 / 624

OV 2D 23:00: 2 / 624

 

Total: 340 / 5064 -> 6.7%

 

Total TFSS: 3339 / 18787 -> 17.77% 

Total PTFSS: 4856 / 21319 -> 22.78% 

 

(T-0):

 

Previews: XX + 704 + 1517 = 2221

Th: XX + 575 + 1245 = 1820

Fri: XX + 455 + 1039 = 1494

Sat: XX + 303 + 715 = 1018

Sun: XX + 147 + 340 = 487

TFSS: XX + 1480 + 3339 = 4819 / 25602 -> 18.82%

PTFSS: XX + 2184 + 4856 = 7040 / 28989 -> 24.29%

 

Adjusted adm. (without CS Bremen) only TFSS:

Wend (wo Previews):

Aladdin: 339 => 4102k

John Wick 3: 522 => 2633k

Godzilla: 184 => 3677k

Rocketman: 128 => 4479k

Dark Phoenix: 236 => 2533k

MIBI: 162 => 3352k

Five Feet Apart: 59 => 8632k

Spider-Man FFH: 1672 => 1251k

TLK: 2142 => 2074k

H&S: 625 => 3792k

Hollywood: 1585 => 1335k

TS4: 280 => 4101k

It: 1880 => 1513k

 

WOW

 

The presales are way stronger than I expected. (In this list the different presales multis can be seen, Hollywood, It 2 and Spidey had the worst. TLK’s is surprisingly bad too and Five Feet Apart had an insane one. Shows that besides genre it’s also important how big the hype is.

None the less are the preview numbers 2221 tickets at two theatres so big that I think previews alone should be close to 100k (I know that it starts in 690 theatres but not all have previews and the two I counted tend to – I think – overperform for superhero related movies and one is in the top 10 cinemas in Germany and the other should be somewhere around #30 or so) so thinking they together make up 2.2% or a little more is probably reasonable. (might be a higher share for previews).

 

Even if I say that due to the hype the presale multi is worse than Spidey’s by quite a margin (let’s say presales multi is only half) that would still be 625k (+100k previews = 725k PTFSS).

 

As the Cinemaxx might have overindexed a little due to the Cinestar Bremen still being closed none the less I am going to go with 625k for the true weekend* could obviously go both ways, comps suggest a way stronger opening or the hype and the press could make it come down from this high.

 

Quick note at the end – previews might be overestimated – I have no idea how they behave. I find them the hardest to determine – I suck at predicting the rest but previews is always pure luck.

 

*I really hope that after the weekend I can say damn, why didn’t I go with what I initially wrote (850k +100k). But right now I decide against it because I have no comps from movies with comparable hype and I think this might turn out to be really, really presales heavy.

AND it's Germany... so it will disappoint. "disappoint" (obviously the best DC opening (540+k wouldn't be disappointing in any way).

 

EDIT: The presales are also kinda spread out through the weekend - obviously really strong for Thursday and Friday but even Sunday is good.

Edited by Taruseth
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Awesome. I was sure Germany will be on board. Any chance for 1million admissions for OW?

 

I see Mark@IK is predicting 725K. I hope it goes higher.

Edited by keysersoze123
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5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Awesome. I was sure Germany will be on board. Any chance for 1million admissions for OW?

 

I see Mark@IK is predicting 725K. I hope it goes higher.

I wouldn't expect 1M+ just yet - Joker would only be the 7th FSK16 (german counterpart of R rating) movie to get there, bigger than IT or TDK...

 

Those are the 30 biggest OW for FSK16 (IT2 this year would be 31st with 590k). Joker should land anywhere among them:

 

Admissions

Theatres

Average

 

1

1.788.781

1.124

1.591

Matrix Reloaded (2003)

2

1.353.030

739

1.831

Fifty Shades of Grey (2015)

3

1.318.961

893

1.477

Mission: Impossible 2 (2000)

4

1.165.253

835

1.396

JB: Tomorow never dies (1997)

5

1.070.139

713

1.501

I Am Legend (2008)

6

1.031.758

474

2.177

Terminator 2 (1991)

7

976.476

873

1.119

Terminator 3 (2003)

8

947.575

734

1.291

Matrix (1999)

9

937.213

660

1.420

IT (2017)

10

868.763

754

1.152

The Dark Knight (2008)

11

848.703

648

1.310

Scary Movie (2000)

12

847.752

1.069

794

Matrix Revolutions (2003)

13

847.356

712

1.190

Fifty Shades of Grey 2 (2017)

14

780.837

663

1.178

Scary Movie 2 (2001)

15

765.413

779

983

Bad Boys II (2003)

16

749.735

482

1.555

Django Unchained (2013)

 17

749.059

826

907

Scream 3 (2000)

 18

746.528

630

1.185

Ransom (1997)

 19

745.709

602

1.239

300 (2007)

 20

713.887

523

1.365

Deadpool (2016)

 21

710.656

696

1.021

Gladiator (2000)

 22

709.972

545

1.303

Ted (2012)

 23

700.424

500

1.401

Die Hard with a vengeance (1995)

 24

690.651

720

959

Live Free or Die Hard (2007)

 25

689.727

695

992

Unbreakable (2000)

 26

649.104

557

1.165

The Sixth Sense (1999)

 27

633.153

814

778

End of Days (1999)

 28

618.257

788

785

Gone on 60 seconds(2000)

 29

602.597

725

831

Air Force One (1997)

 30

601.566

794

758

Red Dragon(2002)

http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekord16.htm

 

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Terminator 2 with the biggest average! :D

Edited by Omni

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8 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Thursday:

Joker 127k admissions. 

IT 2 did 147k.

Can it reach 725k weekend with that Thursday ?

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25 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

Can it reach 725k weekend with that Thursday ?

That seems very difficult (but I guess it has got a lot more early shows than It2 so might not be impossible)

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18 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

That seems very difficult (but I guess it has got a lot more early shows than It2 so might not be impossible)

Any sense of the WOM yet?

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1 hour ago, RJ 95 said:

Can it reach 725k weekend with that Thursday ?

On the true weekend highly unlikely, with previews still possible but right now I'd say it comes in slightly below that.

127k OD would mean that 1% of that was presales at the CS FRA. For Spidey it were 2/3% and for TLK (Wednesday) 0.6%. So a rather bad multi.

 

 

57 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

That seems very difficult (but I guess it has got a lot more early shows than It2 so might not be impossible)

Yeah, apparently Warner Brothers demanded a 2 pm showing everywhere and from what I saw that happened everywhere and those shows are selling rather bad. Might be better on Saturday and Sunday.

 

32 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

Any sense of the WOM yet?

No, I'd say that its legs might not be too good. Movies almost never fail to get a 3x so it should get that at least (3x of the 4-day without previews), and from that point forward I have no idea.

 

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41 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

Any sense of the WOM yet?

Good WOM at filmstarts (3.6 of 5) and overall very good WOM at moviepilot with some people saying that they expected more. But the majority liked it very much.
Edit: That doesn't mean that Taruseth couldn't be right with being conservative about its legs. But I think the great results WW alone have caused a lot of curiosity. And a fine first weekend here will carry further that effect.

Reservations for tomorrow at e.g. the mathäser look very good. It gets no less than 4 evenings shows (of course in the biggest cinema halls) which are already very crowded. The Friday in this theater is for sure good enough for 750k+ admissions but let's see how it develops over the weekend.
The only thing that is a bit sad is that it crushes the other movies which get so few showtimes if at all...
PS: Joker started in 690 theaters, a big number.

Edited by el sid
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Joker has a huge OD of 140k (€1,3M) and 100k in Wednesday previews!!!

 

The other movies have big drops after the holiday last Thursday.

Gemini Man 16k (-76%)

Dem Horizont so nah 15,5k

Shaun2 14,3k (-75%)

Abominable 12,8k (No numbers last Thursday but they probably weren't higher than 30k so the drop is better than -60%)

Dora 12k

Edited by Aristis
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