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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Good last weekend before cinemas re-lock

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8 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

 

 

 

title

 

admissions

 

th.

 

PTA

 

total adm.

 

total €

 

drop

 

week

 

1

 

Joker

 

841.002

 

690

 

1.219

 

940.402

 

8.945.477

 

-

 

1

 

2

 

Gemini Man

 

100.159

 

569

 

176

 

385.595

 

4.042.105

 

-53

 

2

 

3

 

Dem Horizont so nah

 

85.094

 

378

 

225

 

109.345

 

930.369

 

-

 

1

 

4

 

Shaun the Sheep 2

 

70.984

 

676

 

105

 

481.470

 

3.327.801

 

-61

 

3

 

5

 

Angry Birds 2

 

58.286

 

643

 

91

 

508.555

 

3.611.772

 

-59

 

4

 

6

 

Abominable

 

56.970

 

549

 

104

 

324.205

 

2.392.403

 

-53

 

3

 

7

 

Dora and the Lost City

 

53.302

 

336

 

159

 

53.302

 

377.149

 

-

 

1

 

8

 

Downton Abbey

 

45.345

 

511

 

89

 

527.934

 

4.798.867

 

-56

 

4

 

9

 

It 2

 

45.115

 

433

 

104

 

1.807.458

 

18.261.871

 

-61

 

6

 

10

 

Systemsprenger

 

39.285

 

380

 

103

 

293.679

 

2.353.649

 

-33

 

4

 

11

 

Eine ganz heiße Nummer 2.0

 

36.735

 

247

 

149

 

144.593

 

1.174.325

 

-52

 

2

 

12

 

Deutschstunde

 

35.998

 

136

 

265

 

119.746

 

1.043.706

 

-41

 

2

 

13

 

The Lion King

 

28.616

 

443

 

65

 

5.429.458

 

50.019.753

 

-61

 

13

 

14

 

Rambo - Last Blood

 

24.647

 

425

 

58

 

383.739

 

3.419.288

 

-62

 

4

 

15

 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

 

19.026

 

297

 

64

 

1.807.702

 

17.835.604

 

-63

 

9

 

16

 

47 Meters Down - Uncaged

 

17.082

 

162

 

105

 

28.522

 

209.999

 

-

 

1

 

17

 

The White Crow

 

16.442

 

142

 

116

 

113.381

 

967.462

 

-52

 

3

 

18

 

Ad Astra

 

15.464

 

308

 

50

 

306.733

 

2.804.254

 

-73

 

4

 

19

 

7. Kogustaki Mucize

 

15.402

 

31

 

497

 

15.402

 

140.332

 

-

 

1

 

20

 

Gut gegen Nordwind

 

15.085

 

374

 

40

 

374.698

 

3.188.648

 

-66

 

5

 

The excellent opening for Joker and steep drops for everything else made for an ok overall weekend. WOM seems good for Joker, it has a decent chance at 3mil total - an unexpected but welcome hit! (In Austria, 300k total seem very probable, too, after a nearly 100k OW)

Next weekend: Maleficent 2 is the widest opener but won't be able to reach #1 against this week's villain. A 250k OW would be decent I'd say. Also opening is domestic musical comedy "Ich war noch niemals in New York"; hard to predict but should top 100k OW. And a very interesting release: Parasite which is even harder to predict; OW not that big I'd say but might build WOM for the coming weeks.

 

8 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

 

 

 

title

 

admissions

 

th.

 

PTA

 

total adm.

 

total €

 

drop

 

week

 

1

 

Joker

 

841.002

 

690

 

1.219

 

940.402

 

8.945.477

 

-

 

1

 

2

 

Gemini Man

 

100.159

 

569

 

176

 

385.595

 

4.042.105

 

-53

 

2

 

3

 

Dem Horizont so nah

 

85.094

 

378

 

225

 

109.345

 

930.369

 

-

 

1

 

4

 

Shaun the Sheep 2

 

70.984

 

676

 

105

 

481.470

 

3.327.801

 

-61

 

3

 

5

 

Angry Birds 2

 

58.286

 

643

 

91

 

508.555

 

3.611.772

 

-59

 

4

 

6

 

Abominable

 

56.970

 

549

 

104

 

324.205

 

2.392.403

 

-53

 

3

 

7

 

Dora and the Lost City

 

53.302

 

336

 

159

 

53.302

 

377.149

 

-

 

1

 

8

 

Downton Abbey

 

45.345

 

511

 

89

 

527.934

 

4.798.867

 

-56

 

4

 

9

 

It 2

 

45.115

 

433

 

104

 

1.807.458

 

18.261.871

 

-61

 

6

 

10

 

Systemsprenger

 

39.285

 

380

 

103

 

293.679

 

2.353.649

 

-33

 

4

 

11

 

Eine ganz heiße Nummer 2.0

 

36.735

 

247

 

149

 

144.593

 

1.174.325

 

-52

 

2

 

12

 

Deutschstunde

 

35.998

 

136

 

265

 

119.746

 

1.043.706

 

-41

 

2

 

13

 

The Lion King

 

28.616

 

443

 

65

 

5.429.458

 

50.019.753

 

-61

 

13

 

14

 

Rambo - Last Blood

 

24.647

 

425

 

58

 

383.739

 

3.419.288

 

-62

 

4

 

15

 

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

 

19.026

 

297

 

64

 

1.807.702

 

17.835.604

 

-63

 

9

 

16

 

47 Meters Down - Uncaged

 

17.082

 

162

 

105

 

28.522

 

209.999

 

-

 

1

 

17

 

The White Crow

 

16.442

 

142

 

116

 

113.381

 

967.462

 

-52

 

3

 

18

 

Ad Astra

 

15.464

 

308

 

50

 

306.733

 

2.804.254

 

-73

 

4

 

19

 

7. Kogustaki Mucize

 

15.402

 

31

 

497

 

15.402

 

140.332

 

-

 

1

 

20

 

Gut gegen Nordwind

 

15.085

 

374

 

40

 

374.698

 

3.188.648

 

-66

 

5

 

The excellent opening for Joker and steep drops for everything else made for an ok overall weekend. WOM seems good for Joker, it has a decent chance at 3mil total - an unexpected but welcome hit! (In Austria, 300k total seem very probable, too, after a nearly 100k OW)

Next weekend: Maleficent 2 is the widest opener but won't be able to reach #1 against this week's villain. A 250k OW would be decent I'd say. Also opening is domestic musical comedy "Ich war noch niemals in New York"; hard to predict but should top 100k OW. And a very interesting release: Parasite which is even harder to predict; OW not that big I'd say but might build WOM for the coming weeks.

Need indian movie collection in Germany from January 2019 pls. Otherwise where I can get the box office details . 

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On 10/14/2019 at 6:29 PM, Taruseth said:

If it would act like it does in most other markets Joker has a chance to be the only movie this year between 2.5M and (probably) 4M - I expect both Frozen II and TROS to be above 4M, actually I think TROS should be above 5M, I would want to say the same for Frozen II considering that Frozen had 4.8M adm, but that won't get past 5M.

That sounds extremely pessimistic towards SW9. If it wouldn't get to 5M+ it'd be disastrous...

I'd say either SW9 or Frozen2 will win the year. SW3 fell to 5,62M after 5,7M for SW2. With the same drop from SW8 (5,9M), SW9 would still get to 5,8M - around that should be the low end (I still believe it can increase to 6M+ again).

Frozen2 seems like the biggest wildcard of the year it could Minions numbers (6,95M) or just 4M...

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Updadet Top15 FSK16 OW:

 

Admissions

Theatres

Average

 

1

1.788.781

1.124

1.591

Matrix Reloaded (2003)

2

1.353.030

739

1.831

Fifty Shades of Grey (2015)

3

1.318.961

893

1.477

Mission: Impossible 2 (2000)

4

1.165.253

835

1.396

JB: Tomorow never dies (1997)

5

1.070.139

713

1.501

I Am Legend (2008)

6

1.031.758

474

2.177

Terminator 2 (1991)

7

976.476

873

1.119

Terminator 3 (2003)

8

947.575

734

1.291

Matrix (1999)

9

937.213

660

1.420

IT (2017)

10

868.763

754

1.152

The Dark Knight (2008)

11

848.703

648

1.310

Scary Movie (2000)

12

847.752

1.069

794

Matrix Revolutions (2003)

13

847.356

712

1.190

Fifty Shades of Grey 2 (2017)

14

841.002

690

1.219

Joker (2019)

15

780.837

663

1.178

Scary Movie 2 (2001)

http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DBOStartrekord16.htm

 

And TLK crossed €50M as the 32nd movie:

 

 

 

Admissions

ATP

 

 

 

21

58.506.360

7.274.964

8,04

Honig im Kopf (2014)

22

57.929.442

6.945.769

8,34

Minions (2015)

23

57.479.601

5.123.866

11,22

Avengers – Endgame (2019)

24

56.530.290

8.709.881

6,49

Ice Age 3 (2009)

25

55.683.049

11.899.893

4,68

The Lion King (1994)

26

55.468.003

9.272.424

5,98

Independence Day (1996)

27

54.997.906

7.411.899

7,42

Fack Ju Göhte (2013)

28

53.789.118

8.035.758

6,69

Harry Potter 4 (2005)

29

53.347.812

6.136.279

8,69

Fack Ju Göhte 3 (2017)

30 

52.041.305

6.700.208

7,77

Ice Age 4 (2012)

31

51.276.038

9.165.932

5,59

(T)Raumschiff Surprise (2004)

32

50.019.753

5.429.458

9,21

The Lion King (2019)

33

48.754.108

8.747.561

5,57

Ice Age 2 (2006)

34

48.415.306

9.395.450

5,15

Jurassic Park (1993)

http://www.insidekino.de/DJahr/DAlltime100bo.htm

 

It'll probably end around €50,6M+, above the original run of TLK (€50,38M).

 

Edited by Aristis
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6 hours ago, Aristis said:

That sounds extremely pessimistic towards SW9. If it wouldn't get to 5M+ it'd be disastrous...

I'd say either SW9 or Frozen2 will win the year. SW3 fell to 5,62M after 5,7M for SW2. With the same drop from SW8 (5,9M), SW9 would still get to 5,8M - around that should be the low end (I still believe it can increase to 6M+ again).

Frozen2 seems like the biggest wildcard of the year it could Minions numbers (6,95M) or just 4M...

Wasn't meant that way, just wanted to point out that there is nothing between 4M and 2.5M right now and there is always the chance for it to fall a little harsher than SW3 cause TLJ dropped harder than SW2 did (TPM had 8M, TFA 9M but the follow up almost the same number). Not that I think it will end below that, hoping for 6M.

Hoping for 5+M for Frozen II because cinemas etc. need strong movies.

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1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Joker-101,173

Maleficent 2-24,688

Well, those are just estimates that can be off quite a bit (last week the estimate was 128k and the actual 140k). But the numbers indicate around 20% drop for Thursday which should lead to ~110k.

We will see tomorow.

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Thursday:

 

#1 Joker 115k (-18%) €1,05M/$1,17M

#2 Maleficent 50k, €500k/$550k

 

#3 Ich war noch niemals... 15k

#4 Gemini Man 12k (-25%)

#5 Horizont 11k (-29%)

 

#10? Parasite 7k

Edited by Aristis
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5 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

4mil seem feasible, yes - with drops like this week even easily! Next week Terminator will drain some tickets but this franchise seemed pretty dead so probably no serious threat for #1,

Agree with you, especially considering it has a higher 2nd weekend than TLK (of a slightly lower opening weekend - have my doubts about it being above TLK next weekend - a 560k third weekend isn't that easy to get). Still lower than Avengers but that movie got most of it's admissions in it's first 12 days (72.4%) compared to TLK which got 38.5% (2116k after 12 days and a 5500k total - should get slightly higher was at 5430k after the past weekend, 10k weekdays and 25k this weekend would be 5465k and adding the rest should be kinda easy so it could end with close to 5500k) in it's first 12 days. If Joker get's roughly 2M in it's first 12 days (for Joker that kinda includes Monday due to a Thursday and not Wednesday start) it finishing with 4M would mean 50% in that time frame so still quite a stretch till TLK (=> would need 5.2M).

Edited by Taruseth
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Just noticed that Star Wars will start on Wednesday the 18th and not on Thursday like it is normally the case. Have they mentioned this earlier or is this a recent change?

 

Anyway, tickets will go on sale this Tuesday, so they are pretty much following the American schedule in that regard.

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3 hours ago, George Parr said:

Just noticed that Star Wars will start on Wednesday the 18th and not on Thursday like it is normally the case. Have they mentioned this earlier or is this a recent change?

 

Anyway, tickets will go on sale this Tuesday, so they are pretty much following the American schedule in that regard.

This is new, but they have done the same with Endgame and TLK already and I seriously don't get why they do that. A four day opening weekend is already kinda long, no need to make it a 5-day especially considering that deflates the four day weekend and those people that even bother to read numbers tend to know that a movie starts on Thursday and not on Wednesday.

 

 

 

Also I was interested in how well The Lion King is doing in Hamburg and I looked at the seat chart and thought fuck, only like 100-300 out of 2046 seats sold for tomorrow 2pm/6:30pm and then it took me a few seconds to realise, that it's actually the other way around, only 100-300 seats are still available, kinda impressive for a musical running for more than 7000 showings

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I guess in this particular case they are trying to prolong the big holiday-period a bit, to maximize the earning potential. The first few days will be big anyway, and afterwards you are getting the holidays. This should in theory give you a slightly better schedule than if you start on Thursday.

Not to mention that it makes a comparison to past starts more difficult. After all, you had an additional day, so it is only natural that the weekend will be lower, but you can't say how the weekend would have fared if the start had happened normally. That way you could kind of hide a weaker start if one should happen.

 

In other news, the third trend is up, mostly minor changes though:

#1 Joker 700k

#2 Maleficent 2 300k

#3 IwnniNY 115k

#4 Shaun the Sheep 77.k

#5 Gemini Man 77.5k

#6 Dem Horizont so nah 65k

#7 Everest 62.5k

#8 Parasite 62.5k

#9 Angry Birds 2 60k

#10 Dora 55k

 

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