BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[Aristis]

1 hour ago, Feanor said:

So is 6M admissions still in play for Frozen 2? 

I'd say it's still more probable to reach 6M than not. It should be at 4,7M next WE at least after 300k WE. Holidays after that will get it there

[Poseidon]

1 hour ago, Feanor said:

So is 6M admissions still in play for Frozen 2? 

 

It's tough to miss tbh. Spies in Disguise is not the kind of movie to do well in Germany and SW is a different audience. 
"Als Hitler das Rosa Kaninchen stahl" doesn't look to do great business either and Cats seems well, Cats...

 

Looking at 2013 movies and looking at the 475k WE:

If it follows:

 

Frozen 1:  7m

Catching Fire: 6,6m

 

[Aristis]

Monday numbers:

 

#1 Frozen 2 470k (-34%) 4,3M (biggest 4th WE of the year)

#2 Jumanji 2 400k (Jumanji 1 220k i.P.)

#3 Geheimnis 140k (-31%) 4,185M (biggest 7th WE of the year)

#4 Last Christmas 72,5k (-17%) 675k

#5 Rabe Socke 3 50k

Edited December 16, 2019 by Aristis

[Giesi]

I think Frozen 2 will keep the yearly crown, I don’t see TROS getting more than 6M admissions, sadly. 

[PKMLover]

9 minutes ago, Giesi said:

I think Frozen 2 will keep the yearly crown, I don’t see TROS getting more than 6M admissions, sadly. 

Germany is big market for SW, TFA made $111M here.

[Taruseth]

41 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Germany is big market for SW, TFA made $111M here.

TFA was on another level here, TLJ has around 5.9M admissions so slightly below where Frozen II will most likely end up, and inside Germany crown is determined by admissions, so we would say the order currently is:

TLK

Endgame

Frozen II

Geheimnis

Joker.

 

 

but outside of Germany the list would go as follows:

Endgame

TLK

Geheimnis

Joker

Frozen II

(with the bottom three being really close to each other)

 

at the end of the year the first list should look as follows:

Frozen II

TLK

TROS (fearing it will end below TLK)

Endgame

Geheimnis

Joker

 

and the second list could look like this:

TROS

Endgame

Frozen II

TLK

Geheimnis

Joker

 

 

[Taruseth]

3 hours ago, Aristis said:

Monday numbers:

 

#1 Frozen 2 470k (-34%) 4,3M (biggest 4th WE of the year)

#2 Jumanji 2 400k (Jumanji 1 220k i.P.)

#3 Geheimnis 140k (-31%) 4,185M (biggest 7th WE of the year)

#4 Last Christmas 72,5k (-17%) 675k

#5 Rabe Socke 3 50k

I think Jumanji II will end probably around the first (1.8-2.2M, first one had 2M)

[charlie Jatinder]

What are chances of Endgame remaining biggest in gross.

[Aristis]

6 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

What are chances of Endgame remaining biggest in gross.

AEG is at €57,53M. F2 needs more than 6,85M admissions to reach that. So that shouldn't be the problem. But SW9 would have to be below 4,9M admissions to not get the yearly crown in gross. So AEG won't stay at the top.

[Aristis]

F1 vs F2:

 

WE	Frozen1			Frozen2
1st	572		654	1.430		1.635
2nd	577	1%	1.355	941	-34%	2.822
3rd	476	-18%	1.952	708	-25%	3.704
4th	433	-9%	2.499	468	-34%	4.307
5th	540	25%	3.242
6th	402	-26%	3.838
7th	158	-61%	4.091
8th	107	-32%	4.217
9th	81	-24%	4.311
10th	89	10%	4.412
			4.767M			6.000M

 

Spoiler

	Frozen1						Frozen2
WE	Weekend			Mid- week	Week		Weekend			Mid- week	Week
1st	572		654	124	696		1.430		1.635	246	1.676
2nd	577	1%	1.355	121	698	0%	941	-34%	2.822	174	1.115	-33%
3rd	476	-18%	1.952	114	590	-15%	708	-25%	3.704	135	843	-24%
4th	433	-9%	2.499	203	636	8%	468	-34%	4.307
5th	540	25%	3.242	194	734	15%
6th	402	-26%	3.838	95	497	-32%
7th	158	-61%	4.091	19	177	-64%
8th	107	-32%	4.217	13	120	-32%
9th	81	-24%	4.311	12	93	-23%
10th	89	10%	4.412
	00000	0000	4.767M	00000	00000	0000	00000	0000	6.000M	00000	00000	0000

 

Minions vs F2:

 

WE	Minions			Frozen2
1st	935		935	1.430		1.635
2nd	1.040	11%	2.394	941	-34%	2.822
3rd	760	-27%	3.598	708	-25%	3.704
4th	537	-29%	4.419	468	-34%	4.307
5th	366	-32%	5.147
6th	195	-47%	5.521
7th	242	24%	5.893
8th	111	-54%	6.160
9th	81	-27%	6.323
10th	125	54%	6.497
			6.946M			6.000M

 

 

 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany’s Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Frozen 2	467.726	723	647	4.307.158	36.007.104	-34	4
2	Jumanji 2	383.487	600	639	401.439	4.047.691	-	1
3	Das perfekte Geheimnis	143.728	757	190	4.184.894	37.148.827	-29	7
4	Last Christmas	73.707	587	126	676.158	5.602.682	-15	5
5	Der kleine Rabe Socke 3	45.949	478	96	49.795	332.962	-	1
6	Hustlers	40.104	374	107	217.950	1.879.373	-35	3
7	Black Christmas	30.770	315	98	30.770	273.550	-	1
8	Joker	25.164	360	70	4.002.062	37.053.001	-38	10
9	Ford vs. Ferrari	15.950	285	56	342.436	3.282.238	-48	5
10	Mucize 2	15.362	71	216	45.972	411.115	-34	2
11	The Addams Family	13.831	382	36	544.860	3.935.710	-31	8
12	Zombieland 2	13.213	320	41	453.732	3.841.398	-49	6
13	A Rainy Day in New York	11.817	111	106	40.045	333.226	-28	2
14	Aman Reis Duymasin	11.058	47	235	11.058	103.719	-	1
15	Jak poslubic Milionera	10.935	84	130	10.935	125.960	-	1
16	Hors normes	10.821	112	97	40.077	310.713	-31	2
17	Motherless Brooklyn	10.643	83	128	20.678	150.268	-	1
18	La Belle Epoque	9.810	130	75	56.555	476.809	-22	3
19	La Befana Vien di Notte	8.117	294	28	56.214	337.729	-7	6
20	Parasite	7.473	157	48	361.230	3.143.107	-10	9

Among openers, Jumanji2 did about what was expected while most others stayed below expectations (poor PTA for Motherless Brooklyn despite good reviews).

For holdovers, it was a good weekend – Frozen 2 still on ist way to >6mil, Das perfekte Geheimnis with another beautiful hold and Last Christmas is developing extraordinary legs. Joker crossed 4mil total, who would have thought that?!

Next weekend: Oh my god, the latest Star Wars movie!!!! Well, not so omg any longer, there’s a strong possibility it will miss the 2019 crown, with in-house competition F2 aiming for 6,5mil admissions. While the opening will be massive, it’s also a fact that Episode 8 left some stale aftertaste for a sizeable part of the audience. Let’s wait and see, but at least a 1,5mil OW should be possible.

Edited December 17, 2019 by IndustriousAngel

[Taruseth]

Star Wars - Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker

Spoiler

CineStar Bremen

Wednesday:

3D 14:00: 22 / 322

3D 16:00: 131 / 572

3D 17:00: 43 / 425

3D 18:00: 56 / 322

3D 20:00: 307 / 425

3D 20:30: 148 / 572

 

2D 15:00: 30 / 425

2D 19:00: 185 / 425

Total: 922 / 3488 -> 26.4%

 

Thursday:

3D 14:00: 0 / 322

3D 16:00: 45 / 572

3D 17:00: 11 / 425

3D 18:00: 20 / 322

3D 20:00: 230 / 425

3D 20:30: 55 / 572

3D 21:30: 4 / 322

3D 22:30: 4 / 296

 

2D 15:00: 8 / 425

2D 19:00: 140 / 425

2D 22:50: 5 / 425

Total: 522 / 4531 -> 11.52%

 

Friday:

3D OV 20:30: 68 / 279

 

3D 14:00: 1 / 322

3D 16:00: 69 / 572

3D 17:00: 3 / 425

3D 18:00: 16 / 322

3D 20:00: 267 / 425

3D 20:30: 69 / 572

3D 21:30: 8 / 322

3D 22:30: 8 / 296

 

2D 15:00: 11 / 425

2D 19:00: 176 / 425

2D 22:50: 5 / 425

Total: 701 / 4810 -> 14.57%

 

 

Saturday:

3D 12:15: 44 / 572

3D 13:15: 4 / 425

3D 14:00: 6 / 322

3D 16:00: 131 / 572

3D 17:00: 10 / 425

3D 18:00: 18 / 322

3D 20:00: 228 / 425

3D 20:30: 49 / 572

3D 21:30: 5 / 322

3D 22:30: 3 / 296

 

2D 11:20: 2 / 425

2D 15:00: 28 / 425

2D 19:00: 195 / 425

2D 22:50: 4 / 425

Total: 727 / 5953 -> 12.21%

 

 

Sunday:

3D OV 20:30: 22 / 279

 

3D 12:15: 34 / 572

3D 13:15: 3 / 425

3D 14:00: 16 / 322

3D 16:00: 119 / 572

3D 17:00: 7 / 425

3D 18:00: 9 / 322

3D 20:00: 154 / 425

3D 20:30: 29 / 572

3D 21:30: 5 / 322

3D 22:30: 1 / 296

 

2D 11:20: 2 / 425

2D 15:00: 94 / 425

2D 19:00: 108 / 425

2D 22:50: 3 / 425

Total: 606 / 6232 -> 9.72%

 

TFSS: 2556 / 21526

WTFSS: 3479 / 25014

 

 

 

CinemaxX Bremen

Wednesday:

3D 10:00: 58 / 232

3D 15:00: 19 / 297

3D 16:00: 139 / 342

3D 17:00: 71 / 186

3D 20:00: 252 / 342

3D 20:50: 67 / 186

3D 22:30: 17 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 135 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 45 / 186

 

2D 10:30: 14 / 186

2D 14:00: 12 / 186

2D 17:30: 94 / 186

2D 19:00: 208 / 297

2D 20:30: 92 / 163

2D 22:45: 20 / 145

 

OV 2D 19:30: 13 / 186

 

Total: 1243 / 3417 -> 36.38%

 

Thursday:

3D 14:15: 0 / 145

3D 16:00: 90 / 342

3D 17:00: 4 / 186

3D 20:00: 193 / 342

3D 20:30: 6 / 186

3D 22:30: 2 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 136 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 2 / 186

 

2D 15:00: 4 / 186

2D 17:30: 16 / 186

2D 19:00: 209 / 297

2D 22:00: 0 / 145

 

OV 2D 21:00: 15 / 186

 

Total: 677 / 2870 -> 23.59%

 

Friday:

3D 14:15: 4 / 145

3D 16:00: 117 / 342

3D 17:00: 15 / 186

3D 20:00: 224 / 342

3D 20:30: 26 / 186

3D 22:30: 2 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 131 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 186

 

2D 15:00: 6 / 186

2D 17:30: 15 / 186

2D 19:00: 196 / 297

2D 22:00: 18 / 145

 

OV 2D 21:00: 7 / 186

 

Total: 761 / 2870 -> 26.52%

 

Saturday:

3D 11:30: 0 / 297

3D 14:30: 0 / 145

3D 16:00: 127 / 342

3D 17:00: 15 / 186

3D 20:00: 165 / 342

3D 20:50: 22 / 186

3D 22:30: 35 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 90 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 1 / 186

 

2D 12:30: 0 / 342

2D 15:00: 20 / 297

2D 17:30: 17 / 186

2D 19:00: 194 / 297

2D 22:45: 0 / 145

 

OV 2D 16:20: 3 / 178

OV 2D 19:30: 8 / 186

 

Total: 697 / 3798 -> 18.35%

 

Sunday:

3D 11:30: 4 / 297

3D 14:30: 7 / 145

3D 16:00: 133 / 342

3D 17:00: 9 / 186

3D 20:00: 158 / 342

3D 20:50: 5 / 186

3D 22:30: 0 / 297

 

OV 3D 19:30: 104 / 186

OV 3D 23:00: 0 / 186

 

2D 12:30: 8 / 342

2D 15:00: 16 / 297

2D 17:30: 9 / 186

2D 19:00: 136 / 297

2D 20:30: 27 / 186

2D 22:45: 0 / 145

 

OV 2D 21:15: 7 / 186

 

Total: 623 / 3806 -> 16.37%

 

TFSS: 2758 / 13344

WTFSS: 4001 / 16761

 

 

Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt

Wednesday:

3D OV 12:30: 72 / 642

3D OV 14:00: 77 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 189 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 86 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 139 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 512 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 178 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 104 / 283

 

3D 12:00: 14 / 624

3D 14:15: 44 / 351

3D 16:00: 100 / 624

3D 17:00: 46 / 195

3D 18:00: 161 / 351

3D 20:00: 463 / 624

3D 21:30: 145 / 351

3D 22:30: 62 / 344

 

2D 10:30: 36 / 344

2D 15:30: 55 / 344

2D 19:30: 209 / 344

2D 19:30: 29 / 182

 

2D OV 11:00: 60 / 202

2D OV 15:00: 59 / 202

2D OV 19:00: 163 / 202

2D OV 23:00: 34 / 195

 

Total: 3037 / 8790 -> 34.55%

 

Thursday:

3D OV 14:00: 22 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 126 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 3 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 19 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 459 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 14 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 102 / 283

 

3D 14:15: 24 / 351

3D 16:00: 134 / 624

3D 17:00: 6 / 195

3D 17:45: 12 / 351

3D 20:00: 414 / 624

3D 21:30: 20 / 351

3D 22:30: 39 / 344

 

2D 15:00: 11 / 344

2D 19:00: 199 / 344

2D 23:00: 3 / 182

 

2D OV 15:30: 6 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 144 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 2 / 195

 

Total: 1759 / 6978 -> 25.21%

 

Friday:

3D OV 14:00: 34 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 120 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 2 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 6 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 349 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 22 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 52 / 283

 

3D 14:15: 107 / 351

3D 16:00: 176 / 624

3D 17:00: 3 / 195

3D 17:45: 15 / 351

3D 20:00: 380 / 624

3D 21:30: 29 / 351

3D 22:30: 31 / 344

 

2D 15:00: 25 / 344

2D 19:00: 216 / 344

2D 23:00: 2 / 182

 

2D OV 15:30: 6 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 135 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 6 / 195

 

Total: 1716 / 6978 -> 24.595

 

Saturday:

3D OV 12:30: 0 / 642

3D OV 14:00: 75 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 180 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 0 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 18 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 223 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 9 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 20 / 283

 

3D 12:00: 7 / 624

3D 14:15: 49 / 351

3D 16:00: 202 / 624

3D 17:00: 4 / 195

3D 17:45: 9 / 351

3D 20:00: 285 / 624

3D 21:30: 7 / 351

3D 22:30: 25 / 344

 

2D 10:30: 2 / 344

2D 15:30: 11 / 344

2D 19:30: 139 / 344

2D 23:00: 0 / 182

 

2D OV 11:00: 10 / 202

2D OV 15:30: 18 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 84 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 4 / 195

 

Total: 1381 / 8790 -> 15.71%

 

Sunday:

3D OV 12:30: 8 / 642

3D OV 14:00: 68 / 273

3D OV 16:30: 132 / 642

3D OV 17:30: 2 / 273

3D OV 18:30: 0 / 283

3D OV 20:30: 153 / 642

3D OV 21:15: 2 / 273

3D OV 22:15: 2 / 283

 

3D 12:00: 19 / 624

3D 14:15: 64 / 351

3D 16:00: 235 / 624

3D 17:00: 3 / 195

3D 17:45: 9 / 351

3D 20:00: 137 / 624

3D 21:30: 2 / 351

3D 22:30: 10 / 344

 

2D 10:30: 3 / 344

2D 15:30: 5 / 344

2D 19:30: 81 / 344

2D 23:00: 0 / 182

 

2D OV 11:00: 1 / 202

2D OV 15:30: 5 / 202

2D OV 19:30: 95 / 202

2D OV 23:15: 0 / 195

 

Total: 1036 / 8790 -> 11.79%

 

TFSS: 5892 / 31536

WTFSS: 8965 / 40326

 

Total:

(T-0)

 

W: 1243 + 922 + 3073 = 5238 / 15695

Th: 677 + 522 + 1759 = 2958 / 14379

Fri: 761 + 701 + 1716 = 3178 / 14658

Sat: 697 + 727 + 1381 = 2805 / 18541

Sun: 623 + 606 + 1036 = 2265 / 18828

TFSS: 2758 + 2556 + 5892 = 11206 / 66406 -> 16.87%

WTFSS: 4001 + 3478 + 8965 = 16444 / 82101 -> 20.03%

 

In the following the italic ones are kinda useless (absolutely useless)

5-day comps (also taken on Tuesday evening):

TLK:

W: 2343 => 469k (only Wednesday)

TFSS: 1842 => 5608k (TFSS)

WTFSS: 4185 => 4445k (WTFSS)

 

Adjusted (only CS Bremen):

Endgame:

W w. P.: 1150 => 370k*

W: 585 => 728k

TFSS: 1848 => 2312k

WTFSS: 2998 => 2475k

 

All the following comps where are final ones(so Wednesday evening – 24 hours later than EP IX numbers)

Wend (wo Previews – only TFSS)

Aladdin: 493 => 6560k

John Wick 3: 967 => 3305k

Godzilla: 328 => 4797k

Rocketman: 175 => 7618k

Dark Phoenix: 333 => 4174k

MIBI: 221 => 5713k

Five Feet Apart: 85 => 13932k

Spider-Man FFH: 2058 => 2363k

TLK: 2755 => 3749k

H&S: 1058 => 5209k

Hollywood: 1774 => 2773k 

TS 4: 388 => 6883k

 

Adjusted comps – without CS Bremen:

TFSS: 8650

WTFSS: 12966

 

Comps:

It 2: 1880 => 2715k (TFSS)

Joker: 4819 => 1510k (TFSS)

Joker w. P: 7040 => 1732k (WTFSS)

 

 

Puh, what can I say?

It doesn’t have Preview screenings, Endgame had really big ones.

Presales would be out of this world insane for every other movie, but for SW they are okay, I guess.

Right now, I’d hope for a 5-day opening above Endgame, but thinking it will open below and and probably just around Frozen II.

And thinking that the 4-day might be below both.

 

So maybe something like this:

OD: 375k

TFSS: 1250k

WTFSS: 1625k

 

(obviously hoping for something like this):

OD: 400k

TFSS: 1750k

WTFSS: 2150k

 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Taruseth

[LPLC]

I heard that this SW could not reach 6 millions admissions in Germany , what are your expectations ?

[IndustriousAngel]

12 hours ago, LPLC said:

I heard that this SW could not reach 6 millions admissions in Germany , what are your expectations ?

Opening day is looking very strong but presales for the rest of the weekend make me think <1,5mil OW; 6mil total would be above my expectations (5,5mil) - it's all depending on legs and that's hard to predict.

Reviews are not favourable, I've skimmed 5 or 6 papers and not a single  good one - most calling it uninspired, hollow or without a heart, derivative ...

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Opening day is looking very strong but presales for the rest of the weekend make me think <1,5mil OW; 6mil total would be above my expectations (5,5mil) - it's all depending on legs and that's hard to predict.

Reviews are not favourable, I've skimmed 5 or 6 papers and not a single  good one - most calling it uninspired, hollow or without a heart, derivative ...

Won't be doing a count this evening for the weekend presales cause I am seeing it at 8:30 pm - but I might take a quick look into the CS Bremen (but! this might lead to the movie looking more weekend heavy than it actually is - yesterday evening Saturday in % of Wednesday (todays) resales - CM Bremen 56.1%, CS Frankfurt 44.9% but CS Bremen 78.9%)

 

So locally (Bremen) it seems to be spread out more.

Quick note regarding the cinemas the CM Bremen is located directly beside the Main Trainstation. The CS Frankfurt is located directly north of the city center, but the CS Bremen is located at the very east side of the city on the same ground as a shopping centre (but in different buildings), this might have something to do with everything.

And I think that especially for the leggy movies presales were sometimes focused even more on OD. SW has great presales for all days, so walkup factor probably changes a lot less compared to most other movies.

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Taruseth

[Poseidon]

On 12/18/2019 at 5:00 AM, LPLC said:

I heard that this SW could not reach 6 millions admissions in Germany , what are your expectations ?

I see it having trouble even reaching 5m. 

 

OD is pretty underwhelming, 5D-Opening should come in under Frozen. That's a shocker. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

I see it having trouble even reaching 5m. 

 

OD is pretty underwhelming, 5D-Opening should come in under Frozen. That's a shocker. 

What is the OD?

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

What is the OD?

Consulting the title, they are .....

[Poseidon]

39 minutes ago, Menor said:

What is the OD?

About 300k according to Mark G. of Insidekino:

 

http://forum.insidekino.de/viewtopic.php?f=11&p=71651#p71649

 

That's about 70% of TLJ. Of course keep in mind, that TLJ started on a regular thursday with midnights, while TROS opened on a full wednesday without midnights.

 

 

[Aristis]

I'm not yet sold on the idea of SW9 not reaching 5M, I mean if so AEG remaining at the top wouldn't be that far away 😬

On 12/16/2019 at 2:32 PM, Aristis said:

AEG is at €57,53M. F2 needs more than 6,85M admissions to reach that. So that shouldn't be the problem. But SW9 would have to be below 4,9M admissions to not get the yearly crown in gross. So AEG won't stay at the top.

 

But this looks extremely weak for a SW movie. I've counted some numbers for the first time and in only one cinema (so this could be just an anecdote) but it actually lost presales from yesterday to today...

This movie will probably have to fight to become even 2nd of the year. Awful. But we don't have actuals yet for Germany so maybe we should wait...

Edited December 19, 2019 by Aristis