BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[Taruseth]

New trend by insidekino.de:

 

TROS: 1800-2000k

Frozen II: 360k

Jumanji: 275k

Geheimnis: 125k

Last Christmas: 75k

Rabe Socke: 27.5k

 

So he increased the lower end and decreased the higher end.

So looks like it could actually get a 1.5M 4-day.... (which in comparison wouldn’t be that awful - yeah it would be below Endgame but at least it would give TROS a decent chance to have a total above it).

 

maybe it can become the trilogy final with the highest admission count (would be fitting considering (ignoring DDR numbers) TFA and TLJ were the highest first and middle part. Therefore the necessary adm-count is ~5.6M.

 

 

Edited December 21, 2019 by Taruseth

[IndustriousAngel]

While SW9 is a bit meh (but still good), overall it's an excellent weekend because holdovers manage to stand their ground much better than expected!

[George Parr]

I'm surprised that the trend for TROS is still this big. All the numbers posted for the sales don't really seem to hint at such a high total. I mean, it would be awesome if the trends turned out to be true. It would make Germany a rather positive outlier as well, which is rather rare these days. But I don't think it will actually be the case.

[Bart Allen]

15 minutes ago, George Parr said:

I'm surprised that the trend for TROS is still this big. All the numbers posted for the sales don't really seem to hint at such a high total. I mean, it would be awesome if the trends turned out to be true. It would make Germany a rather positive outlier as well, which is rather rare these days. But I don't think it will actually be the case.

So, what do you think it'll be?

 

The Force Awakens

$110 million

 

The Last Jedi

$83 million

 

The Rise of Skywalker

[Rthmessiah]

19 hours ago, George Parr said:

I'm surprised that the trend for TROS is still this big. All the numbers posted for the sales don't really seem to hint at such a high total. I mean, it would be awesome if the trends turned out to be true. It would make Germany a rather positive outlier as well, which is rather rare these days. But I don't think it will actually be the case.

Yeah for 5 days wasn't seeing it getting as high as trend 1700 maybe, see how sat/sun end up

[IndustriousAngel]

final weekend estimates:

#1: SW9 - 1.700k admissions (incl. Wed)

#2: F2 - 375k (-20%)

#3: Jum2 - 300k (-22%)

#4: Geheimnis - 130k (-10%)

#5: LastChristmas - 70k (-5%)

 

SW9 looks meh to ok; 6mil are still possible but difficult to reach with this opening. Holdovers doing great, with the weekday alignment this was already more or less a holiday weekend.

[PKMLover]

50 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

final weekend estimates:

#1: SW9 - 1.700k admissions (incl. Wed)

#2: F2 - 375k (-20%)

#3: Jum2 - 300k (-22%)

#4: Geheimnis - 130k (-10%)

#5: LastChristmas - 70k (-5%)

 

SW9 looks meh to ok; 6mil are still possible but difficult to reach with this opening. Holdovers doing great, with the weekday alignment this was already more or less a holiday weekend.

Frozen 2 is still on track for 6M+ at the end? May approach 6.5M? 

[IndustriousAngel]

1 minute ago, PKMLover said:

Frozen 2 is still on track for 6M+ at the end? May approach 6.5M? 

definitely; the way it's (not) dropping it will end closer to 6,5 than 6

[IndustriousAngel]

according to insidekino.de, the weekend went even better than expected thanks to an extremely strong Sunday; especially holdovers did better than in latest estimates (some even with increases) - the same goes for Austria. SW9 slightly above 1,7mil in Germany; in Austria it came in lower while holdovers did much better than in Germany.

[Brainbug]

For what its worth, the audience at my showing for SW9 seemed to enjoy the film. Some even tried to applaud at the end. I still think the film could go over well with general audiences as its very entertaining for sure.

[LPLC]

Can Frozen 2 make 7 millions admissions ? Can we see an increase next week end for frozen 2 and like 500K admissions ?

 

And for TROS next week end, above 1 million admissions ?

[Aristis]

1 hour ago, LPLC said:

Can Frozen 2 make 7 millions admissions ? Can we see an increase next week end for frozen 2 and like 500K admissions ?

 

And for TROS next week end, above 1 million admissions ?

This WE was already a little inflated by holidays so F2 won't increase by that much next WE. 425k (+8% from current estimate) would already be great I'd say. If it stayed flat that'd be the 9th highest 6th WE ever and therefore it's in awesome territory for the WE no matter if it increases or not.

Atm I don't think 7M will happen, 6,25M to 6,5M look good though.

 

As for SW9, 1M could be possible. Since SW movies are notoriously it could drop a bit higher though... Should do at least 900k (-35%) I'd say.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Star Wars 9	1.388.487	785	1.769	1.710.184	19.969.748	-	1
2	Frozen 2	393.458	691	569	4.807.902	39.929.079	-16	5
3	Jumanji 2	303.000	600	505	791.049	7.598.268	-27	2
4	Das perfekte Geheimnis	130.548	700	186	4.362.305	38.655.174	-9	8
5	Last Christmas	74.011	543	136	783.985	6.466.084	+0	6
6	Der kleine Rabe Socke 3	39.104	529	74	101.006	663.294	-15	2
7	Hustlers	19.071	244	78	247.625	2.126.824	-52	4
8	Black Christmas	16.178	302	54	55.335	476.947	-47	2
9	La Befana Vien Di Notte	15.115	271	56	79.688	451.310	+86	7
10	Joker	14.090	277	51	4.022.788	37.242.694	-44	11
11	The Peanut Butter Falcon	12.594	79	159	27.087	181.720	-	1
12	The Addams Family	11.461	288	40	559.802	4.024.839	-17	9
13	VIP Polizist 2	9.244	98	94	9.244	99.641	-	1
14	Mucize 2 - Ask	8.982	75	120	58.829	523.061	-42	3
15	The Farewell	8.603	80	108	16.162	111.611	-	1
16	Hors Normes	7.927	111	71	52.786	409.044	-27	3
17	A Rainy Day in New York	7.746	112	69	53.137	441.982	-34	3
18	Aman Reis Duymasin	6.573	45	146	19.498	176.902	-41	2
19	La belle époque	6.500	122	53	67.074	562.618	-34	4
20	Motherless Brooklyn	6.276	78	80	31.385	245.171	-41	2

StarWars9's opening was so-so; the weekend itself was lower than SW8's but the total until Sunday a bit higher. I really don't think this is a good sign, for now I'm staying with my estimate of 5,5mil total.

While this was kind of meh, holdovers stood their ground and made this an excellent overall weekend (biggest of the year I believe)  - Last Christmas has a shot at 1mil total, and with Holiday season starting, Jumanji2 might reach 2mil and Frozen2 6,5mil. Still very alive: Domestic comedy remake Geheimnis which might come close to 5mil total (won't profit that much from holidays though …)

Next weekend: SW9 will stay in front but can it drop less than 30% (from 1,39mil) ? We'll see but I suspect a steeper drop. A lot of kids releases but  Frozen2 will stay the most popular choice for families. And then there's Cats which, on the plus side, got a lot of media coverage. Maybe there'll be a few onlookers, a trainwreck of such dimensions is something you don't see every day.

[Aristis]

SW Disney Trilogy:

 

WE	SW7			SW8			SW9
1st	2.139		2.139	1.627		1.627	1.388		1.710
2nd	1.161	-46%	4.431	721	-56%	2.838
3rd	848	-27%	6.566	849	18%	4.393
4th	583	-31%	7.630	467	-45%	5.211
5th	324	-44%	8.094	202	-57%	5.503
6th	204	-37%	8.380	110	-46%	5.663
7th	145	-29%	8.582	70	-36%	5.761
8th	91	-37%	8.719	42	-40%	5.822
9th	66	-27%	8.819	24	-43%	5.857
10th	39	-41%	8.874	11	-54%	5.877
			9,060M			5,906M			5,500M

 

Frozen:

 

WE	Frozen1			Frozen2
1st	572		654	1.430		1.635
2nd	577	1%	1.355	941	-34%	2.822
3rd	476	-18%	1.952	708	-25%	3.704
4th	433	-9%	2.499	468	-34%	4.307
5th	540	25%	3.242	393	-16%	4.808
6th	402	-26%	3.838
7th	158	-61%	4.091
8th	107	-32%	4.217
9th	81	-24%	4.311
10th	89	10%	4.412
			4.767M			6.000M

 

Spoiler

Frozen2 vs. Minions:

WE	Minions			Frozen2
1st	935		935	1.430		1.635
2nd	1.040	11%	2.394	941	-34%	2.822
3rd	760	-27%	3.598	708	-25%	3.704
4th	537	-29%	4.419	468	-34%	4.307
5th	366	-32%	5.147	393	-16%	4.808
6th	195	-47%	5.521
7th	242	24%	5.893
8th	111	-54%	6.160
9th	81	-27%	6.323
10th	125	54%	6.497
			6.946M			6,250M

 

	Frozen1						Frozen2
WE	Weekend			Mid-week	Week		Weekend			Mid-week	Week
1st	572		654	124	696		1.430		1.635	246	1.676
2nd	577	1%	1.355	121	698	0%	941	-34%	2.822	174	1.115	-33%
3rd	476	-18%	1.952	114	590	-15%	708	-25%	3.704	135	843	-24%
4th	433	-9%	2.499	203	636	8%	468	-34%	4.307	108	576	-32%
5th	540	25%	3.242	194	734	15%	393	-16%	4.808
6th	402	-26%	3.838	95	497	-32%
7th	158	-61%	4.091	19	177	-64%
8th	107	-32%	4.217	13	120	-32%
9th	81	-24%	4.311	12	93	-23%
10th	89	10%	4.412
		0	4.767M			0		0	6,250M			0

 

 

[IndustriousAngel]

At least in my theater Cats doesn't look that bad ... maybe it can reach 50-75k OW in Germany?

Book adaption Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl looks very weak here but I guess Austria is not the main market for it, should do much better in Germany.

Star Wars 9 is uneven ... some shows (4DX or English) are selling like crazy, but those are mostly on smaller screens, while the standard shows on bigger screens make me think of a 40% drop.

Edited December 25, 2019 by IndustriousAngel

[Poseidon]

25 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

At least in my theater Cats doesn't look that bad ... maybe it can reach 50-75k OW in Germany?

Book adaption Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl looks very weak here but I guess Austria is not the main market for it, should do much better in Germany.

Star Wars 9 is uneven ... some shows (4DX or English) are selling like crazy, but those are mostly on smaller screens, while the standard shows on bigger screens make me think of a 40% drop.

Cats should open well into the 100ks. Very solid opening in Germany. Compared to some afternoon numbers of 2013, both Cats and Kaninchen should open to 200k+ over 5 days. 

 

We'll see how it goes from here. 

[Poseidon]

Well, it didn't go too well from there.

Cats is dropping like a rock and Kaninchen is doing mediocre at best. 

Let's hope they can recover, but this was a pretty sad christmas in terms of broad appeal at the german BO. 

[Taruseth]

1st trend by insidekino.de:

TROS 1050k (3.34M total)

Frozen II: 450k* (5.45M total!)

Jumanji: 425k** (1.375M total)
Kaninchen: 200k (5 day)

Geheimnis: 135k (4.55M total)

 

*sixth best sixth weekend!
**WTF - Best weekend of it‘s run - shoul clearly get above 2M (and above J1 (1.9M))

Edited December 27, 2019 by Taruseth

[IndustriousAngel]

that's a 25% drop for SW9, excellent! Most other holdovers even with increases, more excellent! Openers not so excellent ...

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

that's a 25% drop for SW9, excellent! Most other holdovers even with increases, more excellent! Openers not so excellent ...

I‘d be cautious with the trend, Thursday was Boxing Day.

some Thursday numbers:

TROS: 200k (€2.4M)

Frozen II: 80k

Jumanji: 80k

Kaninchen: 34k

Spione (Animation): 21k

Cats: 17k

 

And don‘t compare TROS to TLJ (different holiday frames) so the bigger 2nd weekend means close to nothing.

if next weekends stays around 700k than we might start talking about a total close to TLJ.

Edited December 27, 2019 by Taruseth