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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Greenland opens to 1#, overall very poor business

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1st Trend:

 

#1 SW9 285k (-53%) 4,79M

#2 Knives Out 195k (-15%/-22% i.P.) 500k

#3 Frozen2 160k (-55%) 6,275M - biggest movie since SW7 (9,06M)

#4 Jumanji2 125k (-63%) 2,04M - passing J1 (2,01M) this WE

#5 Kaninchen 100k (-38%) 625k

#6 Zauberhafte Schwestern 110k (i.P)

Edited by Aristis
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Jumanji2 dropping harder than Frozen2 - hadn't seen that coming. Knives Out on#2, very good, excellent drop. SW9, expected hard drop but still in the "ok" range :)

Edited by IndustriousAngel

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42 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Jumanji2 dropping harder than Frozen2 - hadn't seen that coming. Knives Out on#2, very good, excellent drop. SW9, expected hard drop but still in the "ok" range :)

I'd actually say SW9 drop is good considering the circumstances (and even compared to drops like Hobbit 2 ones (which dropped 60.5% on this weekend back in 2013)) Though it in the end still will end more than 1M below Frozen 2.

Thinking that they are headed for:

Frozen 2: 6.65M (so back to what I though (don't know 2 weeks ago or so)

TROS: 5.4M (100k lower)

Jumanji TNL: 2.45M (a little below Pets)

Knives Out: 1.15M (going optimistic here)

Kaninchen: 1M (before edit: 900k)

Geheimnis: 5.1M (around Endgame)

Edited by Taruseth
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14 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Knives Out: 1.15M (going optimistic here)

I don't think that's very optimistic, it seems to generate very good WOM and next week's competition isn't too stiff (1917 and BadBoys3); atm I'd say 1.1mil sounds lika a sensible goal, 1.25mil would be optimistic.

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20 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

I'd actually say SW9 drop is good considering the circumstances (and even compared to drops like Hobbit 2 ones (which dropped 60.5% on this weekend back in 2013)) Though it in the end still will end more than 1M below Frozen 2.

Thinking that they are headed for:

Frozen 2: 6.65M (so back to what I though (don't know 2 weeks ago or so)

TROS: 5.4M (100k lower)

Jumanji TNL: 2.45M (a little below Pets)

Knives Out: 1.15M (going optimistic here)

Kaninchen: 1M (before edit: 900k)

Geheimnis: 5.1M (around Endgame)

F2: 6.65M is how much in USD?

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39 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

F2: 6.65M is how much in USD?

Around $60M I guess (~€54M)

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Second trend is up, Jumanji jumped up a bit, while Star Wars dropped, otherwise no changes:

 

#1 SW9 275k

#2 Knives Out 195k

#3 Frozen 2 160k

#4 Jumanji 2 145k

#5 Zauberhafte Schwestern 110k

#6 Kaninchen 100k

#7 Geheimnis 90k

#8 Spione Undercover 60k

#9 The Grudge 55k

#10 Queen & Slim 32.5k

Edited by George Parr
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Final estimates from insidekino.de have a 59% drop for SW9 so that's not so good ... Jumanji2 now in front of Frozen2

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8 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Final estimates from insidekino.de have a 59% drop for SW9 so that's not so good ... Jumanji2 now in front of Frozen2

Any change for Frozen 2?

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57 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

Any change for Frozen 2?

estimate 150k, so a bit down but one can't complain much; it's the first after-holidays-weekend and it's milked the market for all it's worth already

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btw, Austria's 2019 numbers are now final and even though quartals 3 and 4 were good, that wasn't able to save the year ... it's been the 2nd worst in recent times, only "beaten" by the dismal 2018 numbers.

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The Monday update (SW9 stayed flat compared to the third trend):

#1 SW9 250k/4.76M
#2 Knives Out 185k - only -19%
#3 Jumanji 170k/2.085M - overtook its predecessor
#4 Frozen2 150k/6.265M
#5 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 92.5k/615k
#6 Vier zauberhafte Schwestern 90k/110k
#7 Das perfekte Geheimnis 85k/4.915M
#8 Spies in Disguise 62.5k/410k
#9 The Grudge 52.5k (including previews)
...
Queen & Slim 20k/32.5k
Attraction II 12.5k (I think that's without previews)
Underwater 11.5k (without previews)

Edited by el sid
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I was sure Jumanji2 and Frozen2 would be battling for #2, didn't expect that kind of hold from Knives Out - definitely a good sign!

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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Star Wars 9

253.321

682

371

4.762.621

55.036.180

-58

4

2

Knives Out

187.296

538

348

495.641

4.482.777

-18

2

3

Jumanji 2

171.041

632

271

2.085.947

19.553.200

-49

5

4

Frozen 2

149.608

671

223

6.267.430

51.399.409

-58

8

5

Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl

92.925

598

155

617.096

5.242.617

-42

3

6

Vier zauberhafte Schwestern

89.885

469

192

110.209

757.006

-

1

7

Das perfekte Geheimnis

85.284

572

149

4.922.473

43.582.895

-44

11

8

Spies in Disguise

61.976

446

139

412.000

3.089.171

-52

3

9

The Grudge

52.596

227

232

52.596

473.610

-

1

10

Charlie's Angels

27.959

233

120

122.418

993.429

-54

2

11

Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein

20.903

347

60

131.512

859.289

-46

3

12

Der kleine Rabe Socke 3

20.399

536

38

253.094

1.640.961

-46

5

13

Queen & Slim

20.033

109

184

32.692

251.993

-

1

14

Judy

19.249

122

158

65.885

561.199

-21

2

15

Cats

18.145

488

37

218.928

1.879.162

-55

3

16

Attraction 2

12.257

112

109

12.257

133.806

-

1

17

Underwater

11.470

88

130

11.470

101.414

-

1

18

The Peanut Butter Falcon

10.229

97

105

89.086

687.606

-32

4

19

Parasite

8.657

96

90

406.448

3.525.835

+7

13

20

Joker

8.129

168

48

4.076.245

37.745.570

-43

14

Well, holidays are over … steep drops, epecially for family fare and Star Wars 9 (which will find it difficult to reach the 5,5mil). The more impressinve is Knives Out with a fine hold. Among openers, domestic girl film Vier zauberhafte Schwestern did what was expected; The Grudge had an ok PTA; but basically the slot was nearly unoccupied. By the way, in Austria, Star Wars 9 was only #3 last weekend behind Jumanji2 and Knives Out.

 

Next weekend: Three big openers: 1917 comes with good reviews but the theme is not very attractive, let's see if it can reach the Top5. A bigger opening is possible for Bad Boys 3 though the franchise is near forgotten; something like a 150-200k OW should be possible for any good popcorn actioner - maybe even a new #1? Also a contender is domestic music film Lindenberg!; the performer is still well-liked and if his fans can be bothered to watch him on the big screen, a >150k opening seems possible. Also, it will be interesting to watch if Knives Out can beat SW9 next weekend!

 

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Jumanji had a crazy difference between it's first trend and actuals 125k vs 171k (38% diff). And it's hold has been pretty great tbh.

5 weekends ago F2 had 468k and Jumanji had 383.5k.

Jumanji dropped only 55.5% from it's OW in it's 5th weekend. You would need 18% drop 4 weeks long to only drop 55.5% from OW to 5th weekend.

Doing the same for the holiday period with frozen it dropped 68% so about 25% drops for 4 weeks long.

 

Next week Jumanji shoud aim for a 25% drop or better. Frozen would be looking at around 32% I guess.

 

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Presales for Bad Boys are very Good. Easy #1 for the weekend. Would see 300k as the absolute minimum here. More like 400k+. 

 

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1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

Presales for Bad Boys are very Good. Easy #1 for the weekend. Would see 300k as the absolute minimum here. More like 400k+. 

 

would be nice, another (small) hit after the holidays!

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SW vs SW:

Spoiler

WE

SW7

SW8

SW9

1st

2.139

 

2.139

1.627

 

1.627

1.388

 

1.710

2nd

1.161

-46%

4.431

721

-56%

2.838

1.092

-21%

3.384

3rd

848

-27%

6.566

849

18%

4.393

610

-44%

4.372

4th

583

-31%

7.630

467

-45%

5.211

253

-58%

4.763

5th

324

-44%

8.094

202

-57%

5.503

 

 

 

6th

204

-37%

8.380

110

-46%

5.663

 

 

 

7th

145

-29%

8.582

70

-36%

5.761

 

 

 

8th

91

-37%

8.719

42

-40%

5.822

 

 

 

9th

66

-27%

8.819

24

-43%

5.857

 

 

 

10th

39

-41%

8.874

11

-54%

5.877

 

 

 
     

9,060M

   

5,906M

   

5,200M

 

Frozen vs Frozen:

Spoiler
 

Frozen1

Frozen2

WE

Weekend

Mid-week

Week

Weekend

Mid-week

Week

1st

572

 

654

124

696

 

1.430

 

1.635

246

1.676

 

2nd

577

1%

1.355

121

698

0%

941

-34%

2.822

174

1.115

-33%

3rd

476

-18%

1.952

114

590

-15%

708

-25%

3.704

135

843

-24%

4th

433

-9%

2.499

203

636

8%

468

-34%

4.307

108

576

-32%

5th

540

25%

3.242

194

734

15%

393

-16%

4.808

212

605

5%

6th

402

-26%

3.838

95

497

-32%

485

23%

5.505

181

666

10%

7th

158

-61%

4.091

19

177

-64%

356

-27%

6.042

75

431

-35%

8th

107

-32%

4.217

13

120

-32%

150

-58%

6.267

 

 

 

9th

81

-24%

4.311

12

93

-23%

 

 

 

 

 

 

10th

89

10%

4.412

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

0

4.767M

   

0

 

0

6,700M

   

0

 

WE

Minions

Frozen2

1st

935

 

935

1.430

 

1.635

2nd

1.040

11%

2.394

941

-34%

2.822

3rd

760

-27%

3.598

708

-25%

3.704

4th

537

-29%

4.419

468

-34%

4.307

5th

366

-32%

5.147

393

-16%

4.808

6th

195

-47%

5.521

485

23%

5.505

7th

242

24%

5.893

356

-27%

6.042

8th

111

-54%

6.160

150

-58%

6.267

9th

81

-27%

6.323

 

 

 

10th

125

54%

6.497

 

 

 
     

6.946M

   

6,700M

 

 

Jumanji vs Jumanji:

Spoiler

WE

Jumanji 1

Jumanji 2

1st

198

 

198

383

 

401

2nd

314

59%

681

303

-21%

791

3rd

299

-5%

1.273

404

33%

1.355

4th

168

-44%

1.484

338

-16%

1.851

5th

113

-33%

1.623

171

-49%

2.086

6th

88

-22%

1.729

 

 

 

7th

63

-28%

1.809

 

 

 

8th

49

-22%

1.875

 

 

 
     

2,009M

   

2,500M

 

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#1 seems to be very very safe for BadBoys3 ... StarWars3 is dropping extremely hard (at my theater, only 7 (seven) tickets sold for tomorrow (Friday) - ugh 🤒

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First weekend estimates from insidekino.de

 

#1: BadBoys3 - 450k (incl previews) - excellent!

#2: 1917 - 180k (incl previews) - also better than I expected, fine number!

#3: StarWars9 - 135k (-47%)

#4: KnivesOut - 120k (-35%)

#5: Lindenberg! - 130k (incl. previews)

 

I'd expect SW9 to drop harder than 50% in the end, but the good openers are making up for that, fine weekend!

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