BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Solo - A Star Wars Story	292.319	732	399	810.545	8.967.760	-12	2
2	Deadpool 2	250.235	700	357	1.646.746	15.097.505	-12	3
3	Avengers - Infinity War	78.136	471	166	3.223.334	36.220.547	+5	6
4	Truth or Dare	47.178	392	120	389.114	3.298.677	+19	4
5	Liliane Susewind - Ein tierisches …	40.625	666	61	264.945	1.724.028	+44	4
6	Luis & die Aliens	37.754	404	93	75.262	510.988	+62	2
7	Every Day	33.065	280	118	42.395	331.610	-	1
8	Jim Knopf & Lukas, der …	31.454	609	52	1.499.011	10.361.823	+11	10
9	I Feel Pretty	29.858	403	74	292.444	2.432.204	+7	4
10	Rampage	26.676	445	60	295.332	2.857.791	+13	4
11	In den Gängen	13.940	114	122	38.764	305.287	+6	2
12	Sherlock Gnomes	13.238	358	37	154.129	1.082.018	+36	5
13	Hostiles	10.728	81	132	27.889	188.839	-	1
14	Tully	10.385	180	58	21.375	146.169	-	1
15	Finding your Feet	8.910	145	61	11.259	91.859	-	1
16	Early Man	8.082	360	22	195.436	1.268.139	+40	6
17	Isle of Dogs	6.537	114	57	82.175	613.328	-0	4
18	Lady Bird	5.552	149	37	174.041	1.343.857	+49	7
19	Maria by Callas	5.330	88	61	32.207	261.918	-3	3
20	Augenblicke - Gesichter einer Reise	5.176	64	81	5.677	44.545	-	1

 

An ok weekend, at least far better than last week - weather conditions were more favourable for the movies. Still, Deadpool 2 and Solo dropped a bit - bad news for the Star Wars franchise; two full weekends and still far from 1mil total, dreadful! Family stuff improved a lot with rainy afternoons; Jim Knopf is now very near to 1,5mil total.

Next weekend: Jurassic World 2 will win the weekend but I have to say, at my theater presales don't look any better than they did for Solo … the next not-so-blockbuster in the making? I hope other theaters do better. And let's hope for rain once more …

[Brainbug]

At my theater the sales look rather good i must say. On par with Infinity Wars OW, maybe a bit more.

[IndustriousAngel]

19 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

At my theater the sales look rather good i must say. On par with Infinity Wars OW, maybe a bit more.

good to hear!

[George Parr]

Not sure how it shapes up in the rest of the country, but in the north the weather looks to be very hot and sunny again for the weekend. Drops might be harsher and openings be softer than usual.

[Brainbug]

Holy shit, presales for JW2 at my theater exploded in the last two days. Now its nearly as busy as TLJ, atleast in the evening shows 

 

I think my theater has to be an outlier. I dont think JW's appeal  -together with the sunny and warm weather - will allow the film to come anywhere near SW-level box office (main episodes i should add lol). Still, its great to see.

[George Parr]

On 4.6.2018 at 10:26 PM, IndustriousAngel said:

At my theater it starts Thursday afternoon, and only in 3D (Universal policy I think, in Germany there are also very few 2D shows - obviously they hope to milk this cow the fastest way possible but in admissions that's bound to be a problem)

This is just shitty behaviour by Universal. There are quite a few people who can't watch movies in 3D, alongside those who don't like 3D (especially of the conversion type), and they leave them with no choice to see it now. That's certainly not something that helps theaters reduce the admissions-drain that is going on.

 

The sales numbers I have seen don't look particularly impressive, but I don't think that JW was much of an early pre-seller either, so who knows how this will turn out.

 

You know things are weird when comic book movies hold the 1st, 3rd and 4th spot for the year so far (alongside the biggest and third biggest opening). And it's not like there is a big set of blockbusters the rest of the way. There is the sequel to Mamma Mia, which could be big or fall mostly flat. Then there Hotel Transsilvania 3 opening against it, which could be in the 1-2m range, Mission Impossible, which should also be in that area, and The Incredibles 2, which at this point may be the favourite to win the year. The other obvious candidate that could reach 3m+ is Fantastic Beasts.

 

Beyond that there is a bunch of stuff that may or may not work, but nothing that really screams "this cannot fail". There is Mogli, Mary Poppins and Bohemian Rhapsody. All in all, this looks like a worse version of 2016 unless TI2 really explodes.

Edited June 6, 2018 by George Parr

[Taruseth]

7 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Holy shit, presales for JW2 at my theater exploded in the last two days. Now its nearly as busy as TLJ, atleast in the evening shows 

 

I think my theater has to be an outlier. I dont think JW's appeal  -together with the sunny and warm weather - will allow the film to come anywhere near SW-level box office (main episodes i should add lol). Still, its great to see.

Wait what, at my theaters, this day looked incredibly bad, less than Solo's Previews, actually the 20pm show had just 15 seats blocked and that was 10minutes after the official starting time....

Thursday etc. look better, but not that much stronger than Solo, I would guess based on the presales it will end with roughly double what Solo did at the theater, because I think walk up's will be stronger and the weather is supposed to be really good tomorrow and on Friday (>30°C and like 27°C on Saturday and Sunday, so I guess this might be slightly backloaded at lest here.)

 

No where near RO (lightyears away from TLJ and TFA was in another universe), compared to those Solo did really bad at that theater.

Based on numbers, as far as I counted. Using TLJ as comparison, Solo should have opened with like 200k for the whole weekend.

Presales for TLJ Christmas Day (three showings in the morning) where higher than for opening Day of Solo (9 showings, I think)

 

[Brainbug]

Just now, Taruseth said:

Wait what, at my theaters, this day looked incredibly bad, less than Solo's Previews, actually the 20pm show had just 15 seats blocked and that was 10minutes after the official starting time....

Thursday etc. look better, but not that much stronger than Solo, I would guess based on the presales it will end with roughly double what Solo did at the theater, because I think walk up's will be stronger and the weather is supposed to be really good tomorrow and on Friday (>30°C and like 27°C on Saturday and Sunday, so I guess this might be slightly backloaded at lest here.)

 

No where near RO (lightyears away from TLJ and TFA was in another universe), compared to those Solo did really bad at that theater.

Based on numbers, as far as I counted. Using TLJ as comparison, Solo should have opened with like 200k for the whole weekend.

Presales for TLJ Christmas Day (three showings in the morning) where higher than for opening Day of Solo (9 showings, I think)

 

 

My theater must be a big outlier. I looked at some others here in the region and things look a lot more silent there. Kinda crazy. Though if i remeber correctly, the first JW was also extremely succesfull here, so maybe theres just lots of Dino fanatics here

[Thrylos 7]

16 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

My theater must be a big outlier. I looked at some others here in the region and things look a lot more silent there. Kinda crazy. Though if i remeber correctly, the first JW was also extremely succesfull here, so maybe theres just lots of Dino fanatics here

Maybe you have discovered a secret substance that lures more people in your theater to watch your favourite films. 

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Maybe you have discovered a secret substance that lures more people in your theater to watch your favourite films. 

 

I very much doubt that. The theater went crazy with Fuck ju goethe 3 and Fifty Shades Freed as well and both these films can burn in hell.

[IndustriousAngel]

I was waiting for late bookings because JW has a Thursday start in Austria, but frankly, it's looking even worse than Solo. 15% sold for the 8pm show, and the afternoon shows nearly empty. Friday even worse.

[Rthmessiah]

Ger wed should be looking at least 70k admits 

[ZeeSoh]

On 6/19/2015 at 4:41 PM, el sid said:

 

Yes, JW should have a very good hold but 1M is the best-case scenario.

Admissions for JW yesterday: 105k.

Last week (also Thursday): 145k.

So down 28%, but of course the last Thursday was the start day.

And the weather should help. I don't know exactly about the rest, but here in Bavaria it is pretty cold and not too good.

 

 

15 minutes ago, Rthanos said:

Ger wed should be looking at least 70k admits 

This is what I could find about JW1s OD. If this is correct then OD seems to be down about 51.7%. But it’s Thursday vs Wednesday. 

 

German experts, do these numbers for JW OD seem right to you?

Edited June 7, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[Taruseth]

9 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

This is what I could find about JW1s OD. If this is correct then OD seems to be down about 51.7%. But it’s Thursday vs Wednesday. 

 

German experts, do these numbers for JW OD seem right to you?

Based on local theaters?

That number seems incredibly high.

[ZeeSoh]

8 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Based on local theaters?

That number seems incredibly high.

Which number seems high? I was asking about the 145k OD for JW1 number. 

 

Anyways IW had an OD of 225k so 145k for JW1 is true. So yeah a 25% drop on OD but as I had said it is Thursday for JW1 vs Wednesday for JW2 so I dont know how that skews performance. 

Edited June 7, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[el sid]

I didn't remember that I wrote something about JW. So I don't have to search for the OD actual of JW for comparison . 
Edit: 145k was indeed the actual Thursday number, not an estimate. But I also think it makes a difference that the OD was a Wednesday this time.

So far I couln't find an actual Wednesday number for JW 2, neither in the insidekino forum nor from Blickpunkt:Film. But the number seems right. Mark_G predicts 650k admissions OW and 725k for the five days which would mean 75k on Wednesday. But that estimate was from yesterday, maybe he had already some matinée numbers and maybe not.

Reservations in my theaters look ok but not really good. On par with Solo. But maybe that changes over the next days and JW 2 will probably have more walk ups than Solo e.g. Plus it's more of a family film which will help on Saturday and Sunday. JW was broadcasted on TV yesterday (free TV premiere), could have caused some interest too. 4.68M people watched it, it was #1 of the day.
 

Edited June 7, 2018 by el sid

[Taruseth]

6 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Which number seems high? I was asking about the 145k OD for JW1 number. 

 

Anyways IW had an OD of 225k so 145k for JW1 is true. So yeah a 25% drop on OD but as I had said it is Thursday for JW1 vs Wednesday for JW2 so I dont know how that skews performance. 

Sorry, It opened with 900k admissions, so 145k on Thursday are possible if it was slightly backloaded compared to IW etc.

[Brainbug]

For a Wednesday, i think its a very good number since thats not a typical moviegoing-day at all, there is no holidays in the country right now and JW isnt a brand that has a rush-out-and-see-it-fanbase. I think that bodes rather well for the weekend.

 

Next weekend, it will crash though, like all movies. Germany has its first game on Sunday.

Edited June 7, 2018 by Brainbug

[John Marston]

12 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

For a Wednesday, i think its a very good number since thats not a typical moviegoing-day at all, there is no holidays in the country right now and JW isnt a brand that has a rush-out-and-see-it-fanbase. I think that bodes rather well for the weekend.

 

Next weekend, it will crash though, like all movies. Germany has its first game on Sunday.

 

 

I thought this release was to help avoid that. They should have waited then

[George Parr]

Looking back at old charts, JW started with 903k over a regular 4-day weekend that had really good weather, and followed that up with another 903k on the next weekend. Opening day was indeed somewhere around 140-145k or so. Saturday and Sunday were apparently quite big back then, causing an increase with the later trends.

 

With Rth confirming something around 70k for Wednesday, that's quite the drop from the last one, even if it is not a great comparison due to the different days.

 

Should be quite a significant drop for the weekend as well, even with the additional day. And seeing how JW ended up matching its OW with its second weekend, the difference between the two could get quite big early on. Could be that JW2 will be at a two week total that only matches the one week total of JW. You never know, especially when the weather is like it is now, but if the early numbers are any indication for the opening, the movie might have a tough time getting to a 3m total. On the other hand, there is little competition in the near future because studios try to avoid the World Cup, so it should stay the prime option for movie-goers for quite some time.

 

That's my wishy-washy analysis for the day

Edited June 7, 2018 by George Parr