BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[charlie Jatinder]

Hoping for $10M for SC. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Shang Chi first trend 150/400.

 

Just 20% drop from first weekend. Excellent. 800K ($10M) admissions might not be a too much to ask.

[IndustriousAngel]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Shang Chi first trend 150/400.

 

Just 20% drop from first weekend. Excellent. 800K ($10M) admissions might not be a too much to ask.

Yep, Top3 should stay the same as last weekend; with Don't Breathe 2 probably on #4 as the "best" opener.

Edited September 10, 2021 by IndustriousAngel

[el sid]

The second trend:

#1 SC 160k/410k total admissions
#2 After We Fell 110k/380k
#3 Paw Patrol 75k
#4 Don't Breathe 2 45k
#5 Beckenrand Sheriff 37.5k
#6 Kaiserschmarrndrama 35k/980k
#7 Free Guy 25k
#8 Tom & Jerry 25k
...
Der Rosengarten der Madame Vernet 17.5k
Stillwater 8k
 

Edited September 11, 2021 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Shang-Chi	164.702	451	365	413.755	4.222.990	-11	2
2	After We Fell	110.908	566	196	382.018	3.341.727	-31	2
3	Paw Patrol	97.173	681	143	1.046.266	7.349.601	+2	4
4	Beckenrand Sheriff	43.487	409	106	46.260	395.096	-	1
5	Kaiserschmarrndrama	40.383	448	90	988.497	8.455.538	-12	6
6	Don't Breathe 2	37.481	340	110	37.505	37.505	-	1
7	Tom & Jerry	32.927	510	65	507.854	3.578.824	+19	5
8	Free Guy	26.540	303	88	409.177	3.732.216	-16	5
9	Hilfe, ich hab meine Freunde geschrumpft	23.603	443	53	57.083	402.985	+36	2
10	The Father	23.427	267	88	121.452	1.091.138	+14	3
11	Escape Room 2	20.871	294	71	198.936	1.772.844	-24	4
12	Bekenntnisse des Hochstaplers Felix Krull	15.716	263	60	43.434	387.614	-9	2
13	Wickie und die starken Männer - Das magische Schwert	15.423	510	30	37.599	261.148	+33	2
14	La Fine Fleur	14.152	193	73	28.512	243.310	-	1
15	Ostwind 5	13.243	395	34	547.134	3.894.839	+5	7
16	Fast & Furious 9	12.754	227	56	1.942.820	18.524.680	-15	9
17	The Forever Purge	11.236	211	53	264.083	2.301.995	-34	5
18	The Suicide Squad 2	10.189	237	43	555.989	5.251.658	-35	6
19	Druk	9.584	152	63	320.641	2.717.315	+1	7
20	Die Unbeugsamen	9.532	155	61	50.795	426.154	+13	3

Another bad overall weekend; good holds or increases (especially for family fare) but a weak lineup of openers led to an overall decline at the BO. Shang-Chi led the chart; the fine hold seems to indicate good WOM - sadly, with Dune and later James Bond on the horizon, legs will still be limited I guess. Paw Patrol crossed 1mil admissions and Kaiserschmarrndrama is very close (in Austria, it has already crossed 200k total!). In Austria, the chart looks very similar, only Beckenrand Sheriff is much lower here.

Next weekend: Spiral from the Saw franchise follows some other horror sequels; I don't see much potential. The big opener will be Dune and that's a real conundrum to predict; presales are so-so at my cinema but it should win the weekend with ease, nontheless. If asked for a prediction for OW, I'd estimate it around 250-300k for Germany. Weather should be much friendlier for the movies, anyway, so let's hope for some good holds again!

[keysersoze123]

From Mark@InsideKino

 

Pre-sales for 007 in Germany are through the roof...

[el sid]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

From Mark@InsideKino

 

 

 

Looked at the mathäser and for that theater I wouldn't say "through the roof" but the pre-sales are indeed very decent, especially the evening shows look good.
Idk when the tickets went on sales, does anybody know? (Edit: 2 days ago). In total No Time to Die gets so far 12 shows on Thursday, 13 on Friday and 11 on Saturday which is a lot and therefore the capacity limits probably won't hurt (much).

Maybe its good presales aren't that suprising because it's (with the exception of F9) the first real blockbuster since... I don't even remember when . As mentioned by other members the Marvel films find their fans here but they don't really dominate, e.g. BW is #5 of 2021 at the moment (the top 10 are: F9, Paw Patrol, Kaiserschmarrndrama, The Croods, BW, The Conjuring 3, Peter Rabbit 2, Catweazle, TSS and Ostwind 5).

By the way, I don't dare to predict anything for Dune but it started to rain where I live 1 hour ago. The weekend is still predicted to become mixed weather-wise.
The reviews for Dune are very good here and it gets 680 copies (and Spiral 336).

Edited September 15, 2021 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

first estimates for Germany's weekend on insidekino.de have Dune safely in front with about 400k admissions until Sunday (should be a >300k OW, better than I expected - yeah!); #2 and 3 undecided between Shang-Chi (-40%) and PawPatrol (no drop from last weekend)

 

weather is definitely good for the movies, rainy and cool

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Dune	340.964	680	501	396.256	4.378.934	-	1
2	Shang-Chi	102.526	461	222	558.995	5.625.624	-38	3
3	Paw Patrol	76.725	689	111	1.141.080	8.015.681	-21	5
4	After We Fell	69.737	563	124	488.865	4.265.049	-37	3
5	Spiral	50.702	338	150	51.820	469.507	-	1
6	Beckenrand Sheriff	35.173	420	84	94.769	794.210	-19	2
7	Tom & Jerry	28.203	456	62	540.437	3.805.492	-14	6
8	Kaiserschmarrndrama	27.719	378	73	1.033.130	8.834.099	-31	7
9	Don't Breathe 2	23.582	335	70	71.755	646.849	-37	2
10	Hilfe, ich hab meine Freunde geschrumpft	20.473	447	46	80.783	566.116	-13	3
11	The Father	19.945	312	64	152.832	1.363.128	-15	4
12	Free Guy	16.854	229	74	432.048	3.929.501	-36	6
13	Wickie und die starken Männer - Das magische Schwert	11.914	488	24	52.234	360.888	-23	3
14	Bekenntnisse des Hochstaplers Felix Krull	11.770	243	48	62.013	548.734	-25	3
15	Je suis Karl	11.313	140	81	19.030	147.145	-	1
16	Escape Room 2	11.087	175	63	214.039	1.906.206	-47	5
17	Die Unbeugsamen	10.011	165	61	68.594	573.943	+5	4
18	Ostwind 5	9.643	307	31	561.659	3.996.709	-27	8
19	Druk	7.884	143	55	334.257	2.830.000	-18	8
20	La Fine Fleur	7.262	183	40	41.444	350.122	-49	2

Good opening for Dune - not a blockbuster but better than I expected. While Dune's legs might be short thanks to 007 grabbing all the big screens in the near future, 1mil total should be safe with this opening. Among holdovers, family films escaped Dune's dominance and showed good holds - Paw Patrol might come pretty close to 1,5mil total in the end! (There are school holidays in some German regions in the near future).

Next weekend: The spot between Dune and 007 is NOT a pretty one, so, no surprise, distributors shied away from opening anything important. The biggest opener might be domestic literary adaption Schachnovelle which had a good trailer and should do a bit better than the Felix Krull movie still in release. With no big openers, and cool and rainy weather according to forecasts, expect some fine holds and the same Top3 as this week!

[charlie Jatinder]

15 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

1mil total

Just 1M? I was in impression, it may do 1.5-1.6M.

Edited September 22, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

I suppose NTTD should open 1M+ 5 days. Full run may be 4.5-5M.

[IndustriousAngel]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Just 1M? I was in impression, it may do 1.5-1.6M.

it might very well do so but NTTD's opening will be MASSIVE and it will grab nearly every big screen AND it's targeting nearly the same audience, that's why I'm lowballing Dune.

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates from insidekino.de for Germany's weekend have Dune at about 300k which would be a fantastic 12% drop, I hope it's true! Shang-Chi is estimated at 65k, that would be a 37% drop.

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First estimates from insidekino.de for Germany's weekend have Dune at about 300k which would be a fantastic 12% drop, I hope it's true! Shang-Chi is estimated at 65k, that would be a 37% drop.

Pray for the big rainfall this weekend for Germany....

[charlie Jatinder]

Austria

17-19 Sep
 

Rank	Title	Dist	WIR	Weekend	Total
1	Dune	Warner Bros	1	32.416	44.162
2	Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings	Disney	3	11.191	77.482
3	Spiral: From the Book of Saw	Const/STCanal	1	8.627	10.024
4	After Love	Constantin	3	7.809	69.509
5	Paw Patrol - Der Kinofilm	Const/PPI	5	8.247	139.157
6	Kaiserschmarrndrama	Constantin	7	4.440	213.121
7	Free Guy	Disney	6	3.437	71.844
8	Hilfe, ich hab meine Freunde geschrumpft 1/	Filmladen	3	3.821	14.606
9	Tom & Jerry	Warner Bros	6	3.614	89.071
10	Don't Breathe 2	Sony	2	2.510	8.516

 

 

Dune is slightly less impressive than I was hoping for. Shang Chi drop was 40%. Probably 115K full run, a bit behind Black Widow 148k.

Edited September 24, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

255K 2nd weekend Dune. Election Day on Sunday cost 15k ish.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top14 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Dune	258.434	686	377	792.248	8.652.741	-24	2
2	Shang-Chi	68.445	462	148	655.859	6.542.582	-33	4
3	Paw Patrol	53.718	679	79	1.209.127	8.490.495	-30	6
4	After We Fell	45.319	542	84	551.168	4.800.655	-35	4
5	Spiral	37.321	357	105	103.389	925.958	-26	2
6	Beckenrand Sheriff	24.612	420	59	131.189	1.089.646	-30	3
7	Tom & Jerry	23.985	465	52	568.445	4.001.982	-15	7
8	Schachnovelle	19.903	131	152	20.264	177.721	-	1
9	Don't Breathe 2	18.333	340	54	96.819	863.864	-22	3
10	Kaiserschmarrndrama	17.382	331	53	1.062.244	9.085.346	-37	8
11	Hilfe, ich hab meine Freunde geschrumpft	17.013	465	37	100.934	703.653	-17	4
12	Free Guy	14.090	188	75	450.380	4.086.031	-16	7
13	The Father	13.374	330	41	178.422	1.577.612	-33	5
14	Helden der Wahrscheinlichkeit	11.649	168	69	25.282	175.158	-	1

Not a good weekend, only 14 releases >10k admissions. Sunday was election day which seems poisonous for the BO … despite no big openers, drops all around. Dune had a nice hold compared to other releases, and among openers Schachnovelle stayed behind my (already low) expectations …

Next weekend: No Time to Die will be the first real blockbuster since the Covid crisis began, the question is - with still somewhat restricted seating and access - if it can manage a 1mil+ OW. I sure hope it will do so! In Austria, there are less restrictions and more seats/capita so something like a 150k OW should be doable. Though I must say that presales don't look that strong …

Among other releases, the bigger ones are family films which don't collide with the 007 shows; for evening holdovers it will be very difficult - let's hope Dune can stay in the 6-digit-range! For Shang-Chi the drop might become even worse, PTA was already pretty low so it will lose a lot of shows …

[titanic2187]

 

 

Why not this come 2 weeks earlier for Dune....

[IndustriousAngel]

first estimates for Germany's weekend from insidekino.de: Bond 1,1mil admissions, Dune 110k

 

(still with a lot of uncertainity)

[el sid]

The second trend:

 

#1 NTTD 1.025M

#2 Dune 125k

#3 Die Pfefferkörner 45k

#4 Paw Patrol 30k

#5 SC 27.5k