BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[el sid]

The Monday update from insidekino.de is looking much nicer for some films! The new releases are always with previews:

#1 It 575k/2.170M
#2 BR 250k
#3 Cars 190k/715k

#4 Kingsman 2 135k/715k

#5 My Little Pony 105k (82.5k without previews)
#6 Ninjago 90k

#7 Unter deutschen Betten 60k (50k without previews)
#8 Victoria & Abdul 52.5k
#9 High Society 47.5k
#10 The Circle 30k

Edited October 9, 2017 by el sid

[titanic2187]

If IT can passes The sixth sense to become the highest grossing supernatural horror film of all time WW, german will have the credit

[IndustriousAngel]

Was travelling over the weekend ...

Austria's chart for September is online; it's looking horrible (of course, It is not included, as well as Cars3 which is doping better in Austria than in Germany)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	It	573.367	710	808	2.174.318	20.655.942	-39	2
2	Blade Runner 2049	247.588	610	406	247.588	2.872.014	-	1
3	Cars 3	188.855	636	297	712.691	5.539.133	-28	2
4	Kingsman 2	136.596	635	215	713.414	6.649.187	-14	3
5	The Lego Ninjago Movie	89.274	627	142	479.256	3.510.921	-20	3
6	My Little Pony	83.121	519	160	104.137	705.302	-	1
7	Victoria & Abdul	51.637	323	160	179.369	1.505.519	-16	2
8	Unter deutschen Betten	50.122	310	162	60.309	518.084	-	1
9	High Society	46.508	435	107	486.195	3.971.716	-36	4
10	The Circle	30.972	258	120	432.037	3.585.315	-25	5
11	Rock My Heart	28.394	382	74	96.764	696.627	-4	2
12	Happy Family	28.269	361	78	446.392	3.141.712	+15	7
13	Bullyparade	27.524	326	84	1.842.606	14.873.333	-24	8
14	Die Pfefferkörner und der Fluch …	24.847	414	60	224.836	1.427.709	+13	5
15	Dirty Dancing	19.898	201	98	19.898	175.202	-	1
16	Despicable Me 3	19.335	258	75	4.550.460	37.335.480	+4	14
17	Jugend ohne Gott	12.321	118	104	223.452	1.622.935	+5	6
18	The Glass Castle	10.540	105	100	64.614	520.544	-21	3
19	Ostwind 3	10.432	224	47	1.072.765	7.180.080	+10	11
20	A Teströl és Lélekröl	9.422	84	112	55.167	423.635	-21	3

 

A very fine weekend, the openers did ok and holdovers (including smash-hit It) showed strong holds, family stuff even increases! What more could we want? (Look at that hold from Kingsmen 2, WOM must be good indeed - maybe 1mil total is still possible)

 

Next weekend: With Captain Underpants, there's something new for the CGI kids after the rather disappointing numbers for The LEGO Ninjago Movie but I guess Captain's numbers will be even lower. What Happened To Monday opens with very little noise, both might land in the 100-150k range. Actioner American Assasin will probably come in even lower, can't see it reaching the 100k mark.

[Giesi]

Is anybody else having problems with getting Star Wars tickets at Cinestar?

 

nvm, I got my IMAX tickets.

Edited October 10, 2017 by Giesi

[el sid]

In all shortness: The new releases look pretty weak but American Assassin is at least not doing totally bad with estimated 7k admissions today.
Very positive are the holds of It (58k admissions estimated for today, actuals last Thursday 75k) and especially Blade Runner could surprise: actuals last Thursday were 40k, estimated admissions today are 41k! Even if the estimates are not completely exact BR should have a nice hold.

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates:

#1: It - 300k admissions (-48%)

#2: BR2049 - 175k (-30%, good)

#3: Kingsmen2 - 90k (-35%)

#4: Cars3 - 70k (-63%)

Contrary to my expectations, American Assasin will be the "biggest" opener (about 85k incl. previews, <70k for the weekend) - Monday and Underpants flop.

[el sid]

Ok, that 41k estimate for BR was too beautiful to be true. But it had actually 30k admissions yesterday (-25% compared to last Thursday/its opening day).
Kingsman 2 held also well with 13k moviegoers (18k last Thursday).
Cars 3 had 14k admissions (19k last Thursday). I wonder if Mark_Gs predictions of 70k isn't too conservative (but unfortunately in this case normally he is right). 

And the new released films:
American Assassin (330 theaters, so a middle big start): 8.5k
Captain Underpants (406 theaters): 5k only, the first trend number is ca. 1/3 of what the members of insidekino averaged thought it would fetch
What Happened to Monday (211): 3k
Happy End (released in only 79 theaters): 2.9k
Vorwärts Immer! (164 theaters): 2.3k
 

[miketheavenger]

2nd trend:

#1: IT: 300k

#2: BR2049: 160k

#3: Kingsman 2: 85k

#4: AA: 80k

#5: Cars 3: 70k

[IndustriousAngel]

final estimates - family releases go up, BR down (that Friday estimated seemed too good to be true, now it's a 40% drop)

[el sid]

The unspectacular Monday update (insidekino.de):

#1 It 292.5k/2.610M
#2 BR 155k/505k
#3 Cars 3 87.5k/455k
#4 Kingsman 2 82.5k/845k  - so now it has overtaken the first movie which had 785k total admissions, with luck it could reach 1M
#5 AA 50k/80k
#6 Ninjago 45k/555k
#7 Pony 37.5k/165k
#8 Victoria & Abdul 30k/235k

#9 High Society 25k/530k
#10 Captain Underpants 25k
 

[Giesi]

Mark G released his October Preview today, and he estimates Fack Ju Göhte 3 with around 7mil admissions. Do you think this is a reasonable estimation? Personally, I don‘t think it‘ll be this successful, although the first week is gonna be nuts for sure.

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, Giesi said:

Mark G released his October Preview today, and he estimates Fack Ju Göhte 3 with around 7mil admissions. Do you think this is a reasonable estimation? Personally, I don‘t think it‘ll be this successful, although the first week is gonna be nuts for sure.

 

This is just my observation, but i cant see it getting any hype like the last two films. Also, whenever the trailer is shown, people around me (and i) are a bit speechless how dumb it looks. Really, i dont want to make a prediction because what do i know, maybe FJG has now a loyal fanbase? But 7M seems way too high.

[IndustriousAngel]

I'm nearly 50 and the movies I mostly watch are for grownups, so naturally the reaction to the FJG3 trailer was reserved (to be polite) - but I wouldn't hazard a guess how it's playing for the target demo. 7mil do seem like a stretch for a comedy threquel, though.

[el sid]

2 hours ago, Giesi said:

Mark G released his October Preview today, and he estimates Fack Ju Göhte 3 with around 7mil admissions. Do you think this is a reasonable estimation? Personally, I don‘t think it‘ll be this successful, although the first week is gonna be nuts for sure.

Spontaneously I would say the same. Unless the film doesn‘t get fantastic reviews (which I doubt given the ratings of the other two films) or very good WOM me neither thinks that it could reach 7M. The first movie was something new, a surprise hit and well liked and the sequel wasn‘t unpopular but I also think the hype is partly over.

Other predictions from insidekino for movies released in October:
Geostorm: 300k
The Snowman: 500k (I'm also surprised and disappointed that the reviews are not better so far, maybe here in Germany. The story sounds interesting and many said they liked the trailer)
Jigsaw: 400k

[titanic2187]

any chance still for IT to pass 3m admission? will month-end holiday frame help? 

[el sid]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

any chance still for IT to pass 3m admission? will month-end holiday frame help? 

Yes and yes. 3M is easy. Mark_Gs latest prediction for It's total admissions was 3.25M.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	It	293.028	720	407	2.617.954	24.764.553	-49	3
2	Blade Runner 2049	156.481	643	243	504.514	5.707.054	-37	2
3	Cars 3	87.980	670	31	853.667	6.586.946	-53	3
4	Kingsmen 2	81.564	586	139	839.781	7.783.524	-40	4
5	American Assassin	50.365	333	151	79.224	612.755	-	1
6	The Lego Ninjago Movie	46.349	615	75	557.538	4.052.266	-48	4
7	My Little Pony	37.345	544	69	164.753	1.098.102	-55	2
8	Victoria & Abdul	28.945	327	89	234.362	1.944.305	-44	3
9	High Society	25.934	371	70	530.978	4.325.653	-44	5
10	Captain Underpants	24.384	409	60	24.384	182.134	-	1
11	Unter deutschen Betten	24.159	358	67	102.921	863.622	-52	2
12	What Happened to Monday?	19.907	211	94	47.381	329.141	-	1
13	The Circle	19.208	221	87	463.519	3.843.751	-38	6
14	Happy End	18.333	101	82	19.672	157.759	-	1
15	Rock My Heart	15.009	394	38	124.084	882.635	-47	3
16	Happy Family	14.840	307	48	474.344	3.314.041	-48	8
17	Bullyparade	13.973	276	51	1.868.125	15.072.581	-49	9
18	Vorwärts immer!	12.448	162	77	26.316	179.851	-	1
19	Die Pfefferkörner und der Fluch …	12.167	377	32	247.840	1.559.967	-51	6
20	Despicable Me 3	8.710	208	42	4.565.985	37.440.828	-55	15

A mediocre weekend with no big openers and bigger-than-usual drops. Bah.

 

Next weekend: Again. no big openers - maybe Fassbender starrer The Snowman can attract some business since this week's competition is not very competitive at all. At least it should come in with >100k admissions! Other noteworthy openers: Geostorm (little buzz. seems like an instant flop) and Borg/McEnroe which has got a lot of reviews but a very limited demo - at least the PTA should be good!

[el sid]

Some Thursday estimates:

New releases (the Tuesday prospect seems to come true):

The Snowman (released in 435 theaters, some bad, some mediocre and a few good reviews): 14.5k – not that bad if it holds but below the possibilities given the once really interested crowd
Geostorm (425, just bad reviews): 7.5k – if it holds that would be ca. the opening day of AA and for such an expensive film of course not good
Borg/McEnroe (103 theaters) is mostly well liked by critics: 1.5k - indeed a niche film

Mark_G predicts good holds this weekend and the Thursday estimates also suggest that:

It: 27k (45k last Thursday)
Blade Runner: 24.5k (30k) – again a nice surprise
Kingsman 2: 10.5k (13k) - also fine

It and BR were overestimated last Thursday but even if it‘s the same this week it looks like they will hold pretty well, especially with the tame competitors.

Edited October 19, 2017 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

that's a disaster for the openers ... especially Borg/McEnroe, that PTA is not half of what I thought it should do.