BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[Taruseth]

Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt film)

 

Joker: 140k ≈ €1.3M ≈ $1.43M (100k Previews ≈ €0.9M ≈ $1M*)

Gemini Man: 16k ≈ €160k ≈ $175k

Dem Horizont so nah: 15.5k ≈ €130k ≈ $142.5k

Shaun: 14.3k ≈ €100k ≈ $110k

Abominable: 12.8k ≈ €91k ≈ $100k

 

#7 Dora: 12k ≈ €85k = $93.5k

 

#19: 47 Meters Down: 2.5k ≈ €21.5k ≈ $23.5k

#20: Les Invesibles: 2.5k ≈ €18.5 ≈ $20.xk 

 

*So for once I was right about the previews

 

Joker crushed the rest.

100k

140k

140k

180k

165k

 

So theoretically modest increases should be good enough for the 625k+100k Previews = 725k overall weekend.

 

[Aristis]

1st Trend:

 

Joker 710k (800k including previews), 3rd biggest OW of the year. That would mean €7,4M i.P. and $8,1M.

 

Horizont 105k

Gemini Man 85k (-60%/-64%)

Shaun2 75k (-59%)

Abominable 65k (-46%)

Edited October 11, 2019 by Aristis

[Aristis]

25 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Joker has a huge OD of 140k (€1,3M) and 100k in Wednesday previews!!!

 

The other movies have big drops after the holiday last Thursday.

Gemini Man 16k (-76%)

Dem Horizont so nah 15,5k

Shaun2 14,3k (-75%)

Abominable 12,8k (No numbers last Thursday but they probably weren't higher than 30k so the drop is better than -60%)

Dora 12k

Other recent DC OD:

 

BvS 140k

SSquad 115k

WW 60k

Aquaman 60k

JL 35k

[Wotad]

How is this doing in comparison to expectations its over performed everywhere else in Europe. I guess its doing better then every other DC Movie so that is good. 

[Aristis]

3 hours ago, Wotad said:

How is this doing in comparison to expectations its over performed everywhere else in Europe. I guess its doing better then every other DC Movie so that is good. 

I hope I understood what you said correctly. MarkG expected in his Octobre preview, weeks before Joker had opened anywhere, that it should get to 800k total - now it's looking to potentially get there in its first five days and should be able to become the biggest DC movie since TDKR (passing Aquamans 2M). So I'd say that's a big overperformance.

 

As for the numbers: The Friday estimates are seeing 227k. They were 127k for Thursday and actuals were 140k and other reports seem pretty good, too. It really shouldn't go below 200k today.

Edited October 11, 2019 by Aristis

[RJ 95]

1 minute ago, Aristis said:

I hope I understood what you said correctly. MarkG expected in his Octobre preview, weeks before Joker had opened anywhere, that it should get to 800k total - now it's looking to potentially get there in its first five days and should be able to become the biggest DC movie since TDKR (passing Aquamans 2M). So I'd that's a big overperformance.

 

As for the numbers: The Friday estimates are seeing 227k. They were 127k for Thursday and actuals were 140k and other reports seem pretty good, too. It really shouldn't go below 200k today.

With those 227k in friday estimates, do you think it can get better admission in Saturday or just get same number ( 227k )  ?

[Aristis]

6 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

With those 227k in friday estimates, do you think it can get better admission in Saturday or just get same number ( 227k )  ?

It's hard to say really. Since there are no daily numbers I don't really know the way the days behave apart from Thursday. But weather is improving on Sat and Sun so that might affect Joker a little, though as it mostly plays in the Evenings when it's dark this time of the year anyway, that effect might be small... Another point is that there are holidays in some parts of the country which probably inflate the weekdays a bit.

To sum up, we will have a clearer picture tomorow when MarkG publishes his 2nd Trend. I can't give you a satisfying answer unfortunately...

[Aristis]

2nd Trend:

 

Joker is up to 850k 5-day. MarkG stated that this is still cautious so it could be 100k higher on Monday!

 

Horizont 105k

Gemini Man 85k (-60%/-64%)

Shaun2 75k (-59%)

Abominable 65k (-46%)

AB2 60k (-58%)

Dora 57,5k

IT2 40k (-65%)

Downton Abby 40k (-61%)

Systemsprenger 40k (-32%)

...

TLK 30k (-59%)

[IndustriousAngel]

excellent! Sadly, other releases suffer a bit - wanted to see AdAstra yesterday but the only show was at 23:00 ...

[Aristis]

One from the InsideKino forum said that after 500k this isn't too optimistic before Sat and Sun - did I understand it correctly that he has some more insight and knows that the movie did that much until Friday?

That would imply Wed 100k - Thu 140k - Fri 260k which would be great...

[RJ 95]

1 minute ago, Aristis said:

One from the InsideKino forum said that after 500k this isn't too optimistic before Sat and Sun - did I understand it correctly that he has some more insight and knows that the movie did that much until Friday?

That would imply Wed 100k - Thu 140k - Fri 260k which would be great...

Woah that's a big jump, If Joker hits 260 in Friday. It have possibility to reach 1m in 5 day weekend right ?

[Aristis]

8 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

Woah that's a big jump, If Joker hits 260 in Friday. It have possibility to reach 1m in 5 day weekend right ?

It's possible but with the improved weather it's still safer to expect maybe 900k to 950k. We will see what happens tomorow

[Taruseth]

3rd Trend:

Joker up 100k, It up 5k, Gemini up 10k, basically everything else down, downton Abby flat.

 

Joker 900k*

 

Horizont 105k

Gemini Man 95k (-55.2% / -59.4%)

Shaun2 70k (-62%)

Abominable 55k (-54.5%)

AB2 55k (-61.2%)

Dora 52,5k

IT2 45k (-61%)

Downton Abby 40k (-61.2%)

Eine ganz heiße Nummer 2.0 35k (-54.1% / -59.3%)

Systemsprenger 35k (-40.5%)

Deutschstunde 32.5k (-42.2% / - 46.5%)

TLK 27.5k (-62.1%)

47 Meters Down 27.5k

 

MarkG pointed out that it's the second best start icl Previews for DC in Germany only behind TDKR (1051k) and in front of TDK (869k).

Edited October 13, 2019 by Taruseth

[Aristis]

23 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

3rd Trend:

 

Joker 900k*

21 hours ago, Aristis said:

One from the InsideKino forum said that after 500k this isn't too optimistic before Sat and Sun - did I understand it correctly that he has some more insight and knows that the movie did that much until Friday?

That would imply Wed 100k - Thu 140k - Fri 260k which would be great...

The same Person said now that Joker had 750k admissions - he wrote those were the numbers from Thu to Sat but that seems impossible (it would mean 350k Sat...) so more probable it's from Wed to Sat?

Wed 100k - Thu 140k - Fri 260k - Sat 250k - Sun around 150k (it would also mean MarkG only expects 50k on Sun...)

 

http://www.forum.insidekino.de/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=4845&start=50

Spoiler

"die Zahlen von Do-Sa:

Gesamt waren ca. 1,4 Mio. im Kino, davon 750 T in Joker."

 

Translated that's:

"the numbers from Thu to Sat:

 

In total there were 1,4M in cinemas, 750k of which in Joker"

 

[Taruseth]

30 minutes ago, Aristis said:

The same Person said now that Joker had 750k admissions - he wrote those were the numbers from Thu to Sat but that seems impossible (it would mean 350k Sat...) so more probable it's from Wed to Sat?

Wed 100k - Thu 140k - Fri 260k - Sat 250k - Sun around 150k (it would also mean MarkG only expects 50k on Sun...)

 

http://www.forum.insidekino.de/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=4845&start=50

  Reveal hidden contents

"die Zahlen von Do-Sa:

Gesamt waren ca. 1,4 Mio. im Kino, davon 750 T in Joker."

 

Translated that's:

"the numbers from Thu to Sat:

 

In total there were 1,4M in cinemas, 750k of which in Joker"

 

No, Mark G expects 150k, I'd say. If he'd expect 50k on Sunday Joker would only get to 800k.

100 (total wo P / w P)

140 (140 / 240)

260 (400 / 500)

250 (650 / 750)

150 (800 / 900)

 

[Rthmessiah]

33 minutes ago, Aristis said:

The same Person said now that Joker had 750k admissions - he wrote those were the numbers from Thu to Sat but that seems impossible (it would mean 350k Sat...) so more probable it's from Wed to Sat?

Wed 100k - Thu 140k - Fri 260k - Sat 250k - Sun around 150k (it would also mean MarkG only expects 50k on Sun...)

 

http://www.forum.insidekino.de/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=4845&start=50

  Reveal hidden contents

"die Zahlen von Do-Sa:

Gesamt waren ca. 1,4 Mio. im Kino, davon 750 T in Joker."

 

Translated that's:

"the numbers from Thu to Sat:

 

In total there were 1,4M in cinemas, 750k of which in Joker"

 

Splits are little off but you have general idea w-s, sat may end up at least close to  300

[IndustriousAngel]

fantastic, didn't see that coming! Nice surprise in a not-so-nice year!

[Aristis]

Monday numbers:

 

Joker opens to 835k (4-day) and 925k. That's the 3rd biggest OW of the year, the 9th biggest ever in October and the 14th biggest FSK 16.

 

Gemini Man 100k (-53%/-57%) 385k

Horizont 107,5k (i.P.)

Shaun 70k (-62%) 480k

AB2 57,5k (-60%) 510k

Abominable 57,5k (-52%) 325k

Dora 52,5k

[Taruseth]

5 hours ago, Aristis said:

Monday numbers:

 

Joker opens to 835k (4-day) and 925k. That's the 3rd biggest OW of the year, the 9th biggest ever in October and the 14th biggest FSK 16.

 

Gemini Man 100k (-53%/-57%) 385k

Horizont 107,5k (i.P.)

Shaun 70k (-62%) 480k

AB2 57,5k (-60%) 510k

Abominable 57,5k (-52%) 325k

Dora 52,5k

If it would act like it does in most other markets Joker has a chance to be the only movie this year between 2.5M and (probably) 4M - I expect both Frozen II and TROS to be above 4M, actually I think TROS should be above 5M, I would want to say the same for Frozen II considering that Frozen had 4.8M adm, but that won't get past 5M.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Joker	841.002	690	1.219	940.402	8.945.477	-	1
2	Gemini Man	100.159	569	176	385.595	4.042.105	-53	2
3	Dem Horizont so nah	85.094	378	225	109.345	930.369	-	1
4	Shaun the Sheep 2	70.984	676	105	481.470	3.327.801	-61	3
5	Angry Birds 2	58.286	643	91	508.555	3.611.772	-59	4
6	Abominable	56.970	549	104	324.205	2.392.403	-53	3
7	Dora and the Lost City	53.302	336	159	53.302	377.149	-	1
8	Downton Abbey	45.345	511	89	527.934	4.798.867	-56	4
9	It 2	45.115	433	104	1.807.458	18.261.871	-61	6
10	Systemsprenger	39.285	380	103	293.679	2.353.649	-33	4
11	Eine ganz heiße Nummer 2.0	36.735	247	149	144.593	1.174.325	-52	2
12	Deutschstunde	35.998	136	265	119.746	1.043.706	-41	2
13	The Lion King	28.616	443	65	5.429.458	50.019.753	-61	13
14	Rambo - Last Blood	24.647	425	58	383.739	3.419.288	-62	4
15	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	19.026	297	64	1.807.702	17.835.604	-63	9
16	47 Meters Down - Uncaged	17.082	162	105	28.522	209.999	-	1
17	The White Crow	16.442	142	116	113.381	967.462	-52	3
18	Ad Astra	15.464	308	50	306.733	2.804.254	-73	4
19	7. Kogustaki Mucize	15.402	31	497	15.402	140.332	-	1
20	Gut gegen Nordwind	15.085	374	40	374.698	3.188.648	-66	5

The excellent opening for Joker and steep drops for everything else made for an ok overall weekend. WOM seems good for Joker, it has a decent chance at 3mil total - an unexpected but welcome hit! (In Austria, 300k total seem very probable, too, after a nearly 100k OW)

Next weekend: Maleficent 2 is the widest opener but won't be able to reach #1 against this week's villain. A 250k OW would be decent I'd say. Also opening is domestic musical comedy "Ich war noch niemals in New York"; hard to predict but should top 100k OW. And a very interesting release: Parasite which is even harder to predict; OW not that big I'd say but might build WOM for the coming weeks.