BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[el sid]

The Monday update (yes, MM2 wins but it's much closer than in the third trend):

#1 MM2 205k/820k
#2 HT3 200k/935k
#3 Ant-Man and the Wasp 200k/225k
#4 First Purge 40k/485k
#5 JW2 37.5k/2.235M
#6 Catch Me! 35k/40k
#7 Skyscraper 35k/285k
#8 Adrift 25k/205k
#9 Sicario2 20k/115k

[fastclock]

2 hours ago, el sid said:

The Monday update (yes, MM2 wins but it's much closer than in the third trend):

#1 MM2 205k/820k
#2 HT3 200k/935k
#3 Ant-Man and the Wasp 200k/225k
#4 First Purge 40k/485k
#5 JW2 37.5k/2.235M
#6 Catch Me! 35k/40k
#7 Skyscraper 35k/285k
#8 Adrift 25k/205k
#9 Sicario2 20k/115k

How much will Mamma Mia make?

The first one made $39M?

[el sid]

30 minutes ago, fastclock said:

How much will Mamma Mia make?

The first one made $39M?

The first one had 4.3M admissions, so the average ticket price was ca. 9 US$.

Mark_G's forecast last Tuesday was 2M total for MM2 but the hold this weekend is worse than predicted (he predicted -30% and it looks like -40%). So 2M are definitely in danger, maybe close to 1.5M? Would be 13.5M US$,  probably a bit more due to higher ticket prices now. But our last weekend was much too sunny for really good holds and maybe it develops better legs on the following weekends?

Edited July 30, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Mamma Mia! 2	205.697	804	256	821.971	7.070.593	-40	2
2	Hotel Transylvania 3	199.789	723	276	934.929	7.086.276	-44	2
3	Ant-Man 2	198.890	548	363	223.346	2.397.529	-	1
4	The First Purge	39.576	426	93	486.976	4.209.302	-49	4
5	Jurassic World 2	38.331	458	84	2.239.015	24.271.260	-48	8
6	Tag	34.520	254	136	48.292	366.718	-	1
7	Skyscraper	34.176	517	66	282.845	2.914.564	-57	3
8	Adrift	25.552	403	63	203.815	1.659.731	-51	3
9	Sicario 2	19.733	386	51	112.499	962.039	-61	2
10	Ocean's 8	18.617	278	67	686.788	5.743.827	-51	6
11	Papillon	17.996	308	58	22.159	180.884	-	1
12	303	12.549	118	106	47.210	394.954	-42	2
13	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	11.843	437	27	209.159	1.405.194	-47	5
14	Papst Franziskus	10.466	368	28	364.840	2.803.089	-53	7
15	Jim Knopf & Lukas	9.842	431	23	1.660.659	11.272.353	-53	18
16	Coexister	9.773	200	49	23.592	157.538	-	1
17	Deadpool 2	8.344	167	50	2.202.002	19.968.973	-46	11
18	Hotel Artemis	6.439	175	37	14.460	98.142	-	1
19	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	6.097	27	165	747.081	5.956.248	+457	27
20	Love, Simon	5.192	211	25	211.259	1.509.188	-54	5

Nothing noteworthy happend this weekend, the openers stayed on the low side of expectations, holdovers dropped hard and it's no fun commenting the BO this year.

Next weekend: While overall numbers will continue to disappoint, at least we will see a new nr.1 - the latest Mission: Impossible movie should open somewhere in the 300k area.

[John Rambo]

3 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

 

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Mamma Mia! 2	205.697	804	256	821.971	7.070.593	-40	2
2	Hotel Transylvania 3	199.789	723	276	934.929	7.086.276	-44	2
3	Ant-Man 2	198.890	548	363	223.346	2.397.529	-	1
4	The First Purge	39.576	426	93	486.976	4.209.302	-49	4
5	Jurassic World 2	38.331	458	84	2.239.015	24.271.260	-48	8
6	Tag	34.520	254	136	48.292	366.718	-	1
7	Skyscraper	34.176	517	66	282.845	2.914.564	-57	3
8	Adrift	25.552	403	63	203.815	1.659.731	-51	3
9	Sicario 2	19.733	386	51	112.499	962.039	-61	2
10	Ocean's 8	18.617	278	67	686.788	5.743.827	-51	6
11	Papillon	17.996	308	58	22.159	180.884	-	1
12	303	12.549	118	106	47.210	394.954	-42	2
13	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	11.843	437	27	209.159	1.405.194	-47	5
14	Papst Franziskus	10.466	368	28	364.840	2.803.089	-53	7
15	Jim Knopf & Lukas	9.842	431	23	1.660.659	11.272.353	-53	18
16	Coexister	9.773	200	49	23.592	157.538	-	1
17	Deadpool 2	8.344	167	50	2.202.002	19.968.973	-46	11
18	Hotel Artemis	6.439	175	37	14.460	98.142	-	1
19	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	6.097	27	165	747.081	5.956.248	+457	27
20	Love, Simon	5.192	211	25	211.259	1.509.188	-54	5

Nothing noteworthy happend this weekend, the openers stayed on the low side of expectations, holdovers dropped hard and it's no fun commenting the BO this year.

Next weekend: While overall numbers will continue to disappoint, at least we will see a new nr.1 - the latest Mission: Impossible movie should open somewhere in the 300k area.

300k for MI6 means close to 3.5-4m USD gross?

[IndustriousAngel]

5 hours ago, John Rambo said:

300k for MI6 means close to 3.5-4m USD gross?

With 3D, it might rather come close to 5mil including previews

[el sid]

The worst first: It's still hot and sunny here. So M: I 6 comes a bit too early but is at least anticipated by many fans.
The Thursday estimates for the whole country look like that:
The new releases:

Mission: Impossible – Fallout (released in 600 theaters, mostly very good reviews; M: I had 1.181M in its first week/3.31M total admissions (#7 of the year) and M: I II 1.762M in its first week/4.448M total admissions (#2 of the year). Mission: Impossible III decreased with 441k in its first week/1.246M total admissions, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (a winter release) could again improve with 324k OW/1.585M total admissions and Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation had 288k OW/1.418M total admissions): 65.5k - would be in line with expectations
Destination Wedding (ca. 65 theaters, mixed reviews but overall pretty ok): 1k

The holdovers:
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 32.5k (actuals last Thursday 45k)
Ant-Man and the Wasp: 22.5k (50k)
Hotel Transylvania 3: 5.5k evening only (5k evening only, 40k whole day) - maybe the holidays everywhere helped
The First Purge: 4k (estimated 7k)
Catch Me!: 3k (actual 6k)
Skyscraper: 3k (estimated 6.5k)
JW2: 2.5k (estimated 4k)
Papillon: 2.5k (actual 3k)

Unfortunately exactly today we get no South-West report as surveillance of these estimates, so this is very thin.

And Mark_G from insidekino.de didn't give us his opinion of the OW of M: I 6 either. In his monthly evaluation he predicted a total of 1.6M for M: I 6 which would mean an OW of a bit more than 300k admissions like IndustriousAngel already guessed. Of course the summer weather could make an impact on that but OTOH cause a better multiplier.
The other new movies will very probably stay under 50k.
He thinks Ant-Man and the Wasp could hold quite well with -30% and MM2 and HT3 even better with a minus of only 20%. By the way his forecast for MM2 is still 2M admissions.
All remaining movies could drop harder, namly 50%.
100% of the federal republic have school holidays.

[IndustriousAngel]

Thursday numbers - MI6 in the expected range, AntMan2 gets hit hard, MM2 with a good hold.

 

edit: just saw that you posted the report already in longer form, tyvm!

Edited August 2, 2018 by IndustriousAngel

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates ... not so good:

#1: MI6-275k (incl previews)

#2/3: MM2 and HT3 175k each

#4: Ant2 - 125k (-37%)

[el sid]

Some Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

Mission: Impossible – Fallout: 50k/662 US $ - this summer destroys every movie, not really much fun to report
Destination Wedding (88 theaters): 2k

The holdovers (with the exeption of Ant-Man very nice holds):

Hotel Transylvania 3: 42k (actuals last Thursday 40k whole day) - very good

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 41k (45k) - same
Ant-Man and the Wasp: 25k (actuals last Thursday 50k)
JW 2: 6.5 k (estimated 4k) - also good→ Blickpunkt:Film predicts an OW of 40k but they aren't the best projectors

[IndustriousAngel]

Saturday estimates even lower except MM2

[Taruseth]

17 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Saturday estimates even lower except MM2

If the weather predictions hold the holds next weekend could be really good.

[el sid]

The final trend (almost no change from the second trend, MM2 a bit down):

#1 M: I 6 still 260k
#2 MM2 160k
#3 HT3 150k
#4 Ant-Man 110k
#5 The First Purge 27.5k
#6 JW 25k

The weather predictions look promising as Taruseth already mentioned, at least compared to this weekend. More clouds and often much colder temperatures. Holds should be good and The Meg gets a chance.
By the way, it looks like The Meg is often playing in the biggest cinema halls (I saw advertisement for it) but M: I 6 has a really good WOM and the competition overall isn't that big as you can see when you look at our measly charts.
 

Edited August 5, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Actuals tomorrow but it seems estimates were too pessimistic. Still not a good weekend

[el sid]

Still not too great but I'm always glad to report some improvement .The Monday update:

#1 M: I 6 245k/280k - up 20k from yesterday
#2 MM2 175k - up 15k
#3 HT3 175k - up 25k
#4 Ant-Man and the Wasp 120k - up 10k
#5 The First Purge 30k
#6 JW 2 30k
#7 Catch Me! 25k
#8 Adrift 20k

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Mission: Impossible  6	253.482	600	422	287.735	3.282.269	-	1
2	Mamma Mia! 2	179.358	832	216	1.153.055	9.788.043	-13	3
3	Hotel Transyvania 3	176.142	742	237	1.251.354	9.424.606	-12	3
4	Ant-Man 2	118.677	547	217	438.381	4.555.287	-40	2
5	Jurassic World 2	31.020	372	83	2.293.458	24.802.164	-19	9
6	The First Purge	30.221	375	81	531.094	4.594.033	-24	5
7	Ocean's 8	27.703	205	135	724.961	6.045.273	+49	7
8	Tag	24.725	263	94	90.688	707.432	-28	2
9	Adrift	20.769	388	54	242.572	1.970.573	-19	4
10	Skyscraper	16.002	352	45	316.266	3.230.345	-53	4
11	Jim Knopf & Lukas	14.548	407	36	1.686.216	11.436.450	+48	19
12	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	11.406	398	29	231.720	1.554.962	-4	6
13	Papst Franziskus	10.436	333	31	383.896	2.946.756	-0	8
14	Sicario 2	10.306	373	28	131.818	1.130.363	-48	3
15	303	10.086	122	83	65.350	544.665	-20	3
16	Papillon	8.145	312	26	39.187	317.360	-55	2
17	Coexister	7.237	177	41	37.748	262.058	-26	2
18	Egal was kommt	6.873	110	62	10.218	87.166	-	1
19	Destination Wedding	6.244	92	68	16.329	123.666	-	1
20	Deadpool 2	5.376	108	50	2.213.830	20.068.522	-36	12

 

 

 

Not a good weekend - despite a big opener only slightly above last weekend. M:I6 should have a good run over the next weeks however.

Next weekend: Domestic comedy Sauerkrautkoma might take the top spot, the series has shown a high degree of consistence over the years, with openings getting bigger and drops harder. And for the water fans, Meg will try to generate some splash - maybe there's some demand for it, but I would be surprised if it made it into the Top3. With weather being predicted a bit rainier, holds should be good once more.

Edited August 7, 2018 by IndustriousAngel

[Taruseth]

23 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Mission: Impossible  6	253.482	600	422	287.735	3.282.269	-	1
2	Mamma Mia! 2	179.358	832	216	1.153.055	9.788.043	-13	3
3	Hotel Transyvania 3	176.142	742	237	1.251.354	9.424.606	-12	3
4	Ant-Man 2	118.677	547	217	438.381	4.555.287	-40	2
5	Jurassic World 2	31.020	372	83	2.293.458	24.802.164	-19	9
6	The First Purge	30.221	375	81	531.094	4.594.033	-24	5
7	Ocean's 8	27.703	205	135	724.961	6.045.273	+49	7
8	Tag	24.725	263	94	90.688	707.432	-28	2
9	Adrift	20.769	388	54	242.572	1.970.573	-19	4
10	Skyscraper	16.002	352	45	316.266	3.230.345	-53	4
11	Jim Knopf & Lukas	14.548	407	36	1.686.216	11.436.450	+48	19
12	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	11.406	398	29	231.720	1.554.962	-4	6
13	Papst Franziskus	10.436	333	31	383.896	2.946.756	-0	8
14	Sicario 2	10.306	373	28	131.818	1.130.363	-48	3
15	303	10.086	122	83	65.350	544.665	-20	3
16	Papillon	8.145	312	26	39.187	317.360	-55	2
17	Coexister	7.237	177	41	37.748	262.058	-26	2
18	Egal was kommt	6.873	110	62	10.218	87.166	-	1
19	Destination Wedding	6.244	92	68	16.329	123.666	-	1
20	Deadpool 2	5.376	108	50	2.213.830	20.068.522	-36	12

 

 

 

Not a good weekend - despite a big opener only slightly above last weekend. M:I6 should have a good run over the next weeks however.

Next weekend: Domestic comedy Sauerkrautkoma might take the top spot, the series has shown a high degree of consistence over the years, with openings getting bigger and drops harder. And for the water fans, Meg will try to generate some splash - maybe there's some demand for it, but I would be surprised if it made it into the Top3. With weather being predicted a bit rainier, holds should be good once more.

MM2 and HT3 holding so well are basically saving these weekends, with help first from Ant-Man and now from MI6.

 

I really look forward to tomorrow, finally a cooler day again.

We had like 37 °C yesterday and at 8 pm it was still 34.6 °C outside.

[IndustriousAngel]

At my theater, Sauerkrautkoma, MM2 and M:I6 are the biggest movies tonight (about head-to-head), while Meg's opening night is looking like a disaster despite having the biggest screen.

Edited August 9, 2018 by IndustriousAngel

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates for the whole country look like that:
The new releases:

The Meg (to my disappointment it gets only 333 theaters; the reviews are very mixed, some are really bad, some ok (e.g. from the biggest moviewebsite) and some critics liked it): 21k, at least slightly above Skyscraper and that with far less screens
The Guernsey Literary And Potato Peel Pie Society (319): 6.5k
Sauerkrautkoma (197 because it's only released in the South of Germany like all of these local color crime comedies based on books of Rita Falk): 28.5k – good number and bad weather already now and tomorrow in Bavaria, fits .
Duck Duck Goose (373): ?k

The holdovers:
Mission: Impossible – Fallout: 41.5k (actuals last Thursday 50k) - very nice
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 20.5k (41k) - seems a bit low, was underestimated last Thursday
Ant-Man and the Wasp: 13k (25k) 
The First Purge: 3.5k (estimated 4k)
Hotel Transylvania 3: 3k evening only (5.5k evening only, 42k whole day)
JW2: 2.5k (6.5k)
Catch Me!: 2k (estimated 3k)

The South-West report was missing last week, so now I have no comparisons.
The new releases had in the selected theaters 612 (Sauerkrautkoma) and 798 (The Meg) admissions (e.g. Skyscraper had only 292 on its first day, The First Purge 1.059). Strange, here The Meg looks much better than Skyscraper. I hope the actuals will go up a bit.
And the holdovers: M:I 6 had today 1.065 admissions (1.767 last Friday, so I guess that number too shows a good hold), MM2 697, Ant-Man and the Wasp 415, The First Purge 123 abd JW2 91.

Mark_G from insidekino.de predicts 150k admissions for Sauerkrautkoma and 100k admissions for The Meg. I hope both will come in a bit higher.
Despite that the weather is only tomorrow and only in the South predicted to become bad the holds should be nice with only -20% for M:I 6, MM2, HT3, JW2 and -30% for Ant-Man and the Wasp.
73% of the federal republic have school holidays.

Edited August 9, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de:

#1: M:I6 with 175k admissions (-30%)

#2-5 not sure, a lot of releases with around 130-140k incl. new opener Sauerkrautkoma

#6: Meg with 125k (better than expected I have to admit)