BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[el sid]

And the Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases:

Sauerkrautkoma: 33k (the predecessor "Grießnockerlaffäre" had 22k OD) → 150k OW with previews
The Meg: 30k - it went up!
The Guernsey Literary And Potato Peel Pie Society: 5.2k → 45k OW
Duck Duck Goose: 6.6k → 25k OW

The holdovers:

Missions: Impossible - Fallout: 36k (actuals last Thursday 50k)
Hotel Transylvania 3: 32k whole day (42k whole day)
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 31k (41k)

Edited August 10, 2018 by el sid

[el sid]

The second trend looks similar:

#1 M: I6 175k
#2 Sauerkrautkoma 170k
#3 HT3 140k

#4 MM2 140k
#5 The Meg 125k
#6 Ant-Man and the Wasp 80k
#7 Deine Juliet 47.5k
#8 The First Purge 25k
#9 Duck Duck Goose 25k

[IndustriousAngel]

So, Sauerkrautkoma will definitely NOT be #1 this weekend; still a great number. The last entry in the series (Grießnockerlaffäre) opened a year ago to about 135k including previews, so once more the franchise is showing an upwards trend, not bad for the 5th entry. However, last year there followed an increase on 2nd weekend (bad weather) so let's see if Sauerkrautkoma can get near its predecessor's total (>800k)

[miketheavenger]

The 3rd trend has almost everything increasing once more.  

 

#1 MI6: 200k

#2: Sauerkrautkoma: 170k

#3/4: HT3/MM2: 150k

#5: Meg: 140k

 

Also Ant-Man and the Wasp has now passed the first movie's total and continues the streak of every MCU sequel or threequel outperforming its predecessors.

[el sid]

The Monday update, as often it looks a bit better for most movies:

#1 M: I6 200k/600k (only -21% without previews)
#2 HT3 167.5k/1.525M

#3 Sauerkrautkoma 160k/180k (read that the 20k out of its previews were originated from only 20 screens!)
#4 MM2 157.5k/1.430M
#5 The Meg 155k - again an increase  

#6 Ant-Man and the Wasp 90k/585k
#7 The First Purge 27.5k/570k
#8 Deine Juliet 27.5k/52.5k
#9 Duck Duck Goose 27.5k
#10 JW2 22.5k/2.330M
#11 Catch Me! 20k/125k

Edited August 13, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Mission: Impossible 6	201.085	635	317	601.280	6.676.277	-21	2
2	Hotel Transylvania 3	168.993	762	222	1.524.051	11.418.236	-4	4
3	Mamma Mia! 2	168.361	724	233	1.441.178	12.147.087	-6	4
4	Sauerkrautkoma	163.373	196	834	184.420	1.495.810	-	1
5	Meg	154.203	333	463	154.203	1.610.751	-	1
6	Ant-Man 2	91.298	556	164	587.374	6.018.610	-23	3
7	The First Purge	28.679	329	87	569.993	4.937.049	-5	6
8	The Guernsey Literary And …	28.213	315	90	52.087	421.261	-	1
9	Duck Duck Goose	27.635	373	74	27.635	187.241	-	1
10	Jurassic World 2	23.009	313	74	2.332.006	25.192.939	-26	10
11	Tag	20.191	264	76	123.954	978.134	-18	3
12	Adrift	16.918	298	57	271.927	2.208.208	-19	5
13	Ocean's 8	12.216	126	97	750.024	6.259.546	-56	8
14	303	11.474	125	92	83.281	695.217	+14	4
15	Papst Franziskus	11.250	293	38	403.974	3.099.891	+8	9
16	Jim Knopf & Lukas	10.157	337	30	1.702.899	11.541.129	-30	20
17	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	9.991	335	30	250.996	1.681.575	-12	7
18	Skyscraper	8.100	206	39	332.227	3.384.150	-49	5
19	Three Billboards Outside …	7.417	35	212	767.150	6.105.663	+65	29
20	The Shape of Water	7.143	26	510	510.990	4.239.575	+84	26

Finally a weekend with overperforming openers (even if only slightly). Meg is selling better than expected, very good PTA. Sauerkrautkoma nearly doubles Meg's PTA but its potential for expansion is slim. Among holdovers, drops were mostly very soft, and thanks to open air shows some older releases have a comeback in the charts.

Next weekend: The Equalizer 2 has potential to become #1, even if it will probably drop from the first one's >200k opening. Disney's Christopher Robin has all the makings of a movie nobody was waiting for, but a place in the Top5 might still be possible, thanks to Disney's marketing power (I hope, personally I haven't seen any push). This week's openers should expand a bit, with Meg profiting more than Sauerkrautkoma thanks to the wider appeal.

Edited August 14, 2018 by IndustriousAngel

[Aristis]

On 8/14/2018 at 12:05 PM, IndustriousAngel said:

Finally a weekend with overperforming openers (even if only slightly). Meg is selling better than expected, very good PTA. Sauerkrautkoma nearly doubles Meg's PTA but its potential for expansion is slim. Among holdovers, drops were mostly very soft, and thanks to open air shows some older releases have a comeback in the charts.

Being 20 WE in the Top20 is great for Jim Knopf - if the weather would have been worse it should have made it to 2M+ easily...

I had hoped for much more, I really liked the movie

[IndustriousAngel]

40 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Being 20 WE in the Top20 is great for Jim Knopf - if the weather would have been worse it should have made it to 2M+ easily...

I had hoped for much more, I really liked the movie

With open airs still running for about two weeks, it might yet reach 1,8mil, one of the bestselling domestic children's book adaptions (sadly also one of the most expensive ...)

[IndustriousAngel]

Among openers at my theater, The Darkest Minds is an instant flop, as is Christopher Robin. Equalizer2 does a little better but is lagging behind M:I6 and MM2. Only sellout situation is the Elvis 68 Comeback Special which is playing only today and only one show.

[titanic2187]

On 8/14/2018 at 6:05 PM, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Mission: Impossible 6	201.085	635	317	601.280	6.676.277	-21	2
2	Hotel Transylvania 3	168.993	762	222	1.524.051	11.418.236	-4	4
3	Mamma Mia! 2	168.361	724	233	1.441.178	12.147.087	-6	4
4	Sauerkrautkoma	163.373	196	834	184.420	1.495.810	-	1
5	Meg	154.203	333	463	154.203	1.610.751	-	1
6	Ant-Man 2	91.298	556	164	587.374	6.018.610	-23	3
7	The First Purge	28.679	329	87	569.993	4.937.049	-5	6
8	The Guernsey Literary And …	28.213	315	90	52.087	421.261	-	1
9	Duck Duck Goose	27.635	373	74	27.635	187.241	-	1
10	Jurassic World 2	23.009	313	74	2.332.006	25.192.939	-26	10
11	Tag	20.191	264	76	123.954	978.134	-18	3
12	Adrift	16.918	298	57	271.927	2.208.208	-19	5
13	Ocean's 8	12.216	126	97	750.024	6.259.546	-56	8
14	303	11.474	125	92	83.281	695.217	+14	4
15	Papst Franziskus	11.250	293	38	403.974	3.099.891	+8	9
16	Jim Knopf & Lukas	10.157	337	30	1.702.899	11.541.129	-30	20
17	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	9.991	335	30	250.996	1.681.575	-12	7
18	Skyscraper	8.100	206	39	332.227	3.384.150	-49	5
19	Three Billboards Outside …	7.417	35	212	767.150	6.105.663	+65	29
20	The Shape of Water	7.143	26	510	510.990	4.239.575	+84	26

Finally a weekend with overperforming openers (even if only slightly). Meg is selling better than expected, very good PTA. Sauerkrautkoma nearly doubles Meg's PTA but its potential for expansion is slim. Among holdovers, drops were mostly very soft, and thanks to open air shows some older releases have a comeback in the charts.

Next weekend: The Equalizer 2 has potential to become #1, even if it will probably drop from the first one's >200k opening. Disney's Christopher Robin has all the makings of a movie nobody was waiting for, but a place in the Top5 might still be possible, thanks to Disney's marketing power (I hope, personally I haven't seen any push). This week's openers should expand a bit, with Meg profiting more than Sauerkrautkoma thanks to the wider appeal.

for what event they bring back 3 billboard and the Shape of water???

[IndustriousAngel]

22 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

for what event they bring back 3 billboard and the Shape of water???

those are open air events (some of them with around 1.000 seats, so one sold out show may have quite an impact)

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates for the whole country (last Thursday most estimates were below the actual numbers):
The new releases:

The Equalizer 2 (released in 501 theaters, the first movie had 207k admissions OW and a total of 862k): 48.5k - would be a very good number, looks almost too good
Christopher Robin (498): 7.5k - evening only
The Darkest Minds (306): 3.5k
Breaking In (240): 2.5k
Ein Dorf zieht blank/Normandie Nue (100): under 1k

The holdovers:

Mission: Impossible - Fallout: 28.5k (36k) - nice
Sauerkrautkoma: 25k (33k) - also
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 16.5k (31k)
The Meg: 10k (30k) - was strongly underestimated last week

Ant-Man and the Wasp: 9k (estimated 13k)
The Guernsey Literary And Potato Peel Pie Society: 3k (5.2k)
Hotel Transylvania 3: 1k evening only (estimated 3k evening only, 32k whole day)

 

Sadly we get no South-West-reports in the next weeks which would be urgently needed as control measurement. If the estimates are too far away from the actuals I have to think about something else or to pause.

Mark_G from insidekino.de predicts 200k admissions for The Equalizer2 and 100k admissions for Christopher Robin.
The holds should again be nice with only -25% for each movie of the Top Ten. Only The Meg (-40%) and Ant-Man and the Wasp (-50%) could drop harder.
63% of the federal republic have school holidays.

Edited August 16, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates from insidekino.de for Germany's weekend:

 

#1: Eq2 - 185k (>10% drop from the first one)

#2: M:I6 - 105k (-48%)

#3: MM2 - 100k (-40%)

#4: SKK - 95k (-42%)

#5: CR - 95k incl. previews

[el sid]

The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film (and sadly it just doesn't work with only one report, almost every bigger movie went down):
The new releases:

The Equalizer 2: 33k - the estimate looked too good . Still not bad, the first Equalizer had 32k OD and was released in October, a more favorable date
Christopher Robin: 16k
Breaking In: 3.5k → 27.5k OW
The Darkest Minds: 4k → 20k OW 
Ein Dorf zieht blank/Normandie Nue: 1.4k → 7.5k OW

The holdovers:

Mission: Impossible - Fallout: 20k (actuals last Thursday 36k)
Sauerkrautkoma: 20k (33k)

HT3: no Thursday numbers but 75k OW predicted in the first trend, -56%
The Meg: also no Thursday numbers, 70k OW predicted in the first trend, -55%
 

Edited August 17, 2018 by el sid

[Aristis]

Few increases with the 2nd Trend:

 

Eq2 195k

MI6 115k -43%

MM2 100k -40%

SKK 95k -42%/-48%

CR 95k

Meg 85k -45%

HT3 80k -53%

AMATW 40k -56%

Edited August 18, 2018 by Aristis

[IndustriousAngel]

Actuals tomorrow but numbers went up a bit once more!

[Aristis]

There are actuals for the first half of the year - and as expected they are bad.

 

It had 51M admissions, down 15% from the year before. Only 1992 was worse (49M). That year only had 106M admissions (last year had 122M and already was a bad one)... So this year will probably be the worst since 26 years.

[IndustriousAngel]

With weak line-up and the WorldCup I think that was never in question ... same as in Austria. But it's actually worse than expected, with even the few potential hits failing at the BO

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	ttile	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	The Equalizer 2	166.279	500	333	190.023	1.799.211	-	1
2	Mamma Mia! 2	123.143	698	176	1.675.838	14.063.900	-27	5
3	Mission: Impossible 6	118.552	653	182	825.151	9.015.936	-41	3
4	Hotel Transylvaniea 3	104.106	757	138	1.735.548	12.922.436	-38	5
5	Sauerkrautkoma	103.077	236	437	404.136	3.225.547	-37	2
6	Meg	90.730	365	249	307.455	3.106.044	-41	2
7	Christopher Robin	82.634	501	165	93.654	714.510	-	1
8	Ant-Man 2	45.392	417	109	683.539	6.926.814	-50	4
9	Breaking In	22.866	240	95	33.923	254.678	-	1
10	The Darkest Minds	21.031	306	69	21.797	178.909	-	1
11	Duck Duck Goose	15.644	421	37	64.541	420.271	-43	2
12	Jurassic World 2	14.994	239	63	2.359.855	25.461.424	-35	11
13	The First Purge	13.701	255	54	592.854	5.136.005	-52	7
14	The Guernsey Literary … Society	12.865	303	42	86.742	704.110	-54	2
15	Papst Franziskus	7.527	245	31	421.844	3.2334.889	-33	10
16	Jim Knopf & Lukas	7.369	300	25	1.716.890	11.628.757	-27	21
17	303	7.352	129	57	98.578	820.646	-36	5
18	Adrift	6.802	220	31	289.794	289.794	-60	6
19	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	6.434	288	22	264.817	1.771.174	-36	8
20	Normandie Nue	6.421	100	64	7.421	60.273	-	1

Five releases with >100k admissions but non above 200k, another sad weekend at the german BO. Sauerkrautkoma had the highest PTA again; thanks to the strong opening it's still ahead of last year's Grießnockerlaffäre even though that one increased in week 2. The Equalizer 2 did about what was expected, in fact better than I expected after the ridiculous first one.

Next weekend: No real big opener except maybe Slender Man which has a chance to win the weekend with nothing else for the horror crowd. A lot of medium-sized openers with such different offerings as Blackkklansman (don't see much interest), Crazy Rich Asians (neither), Action Point (Johnny Knoxville has some dedicated followers so maybe good PTA in its few theaters) or Terrence Hill starrer My Name is Thomas which should lure older moviegoers. Overall no standout, but with weather turning cold and rainy, and with such a wide gamut of offerings, we might finally see something like a really good weekend!

[George Parr]

It's kind of funny, the new Terence Hill movie on its own will probably not interest many people at all, but combine it with a visit from Terence Hill himself and the roof blows off. I guess the chance to actually see a legendary actor / childhood hero is too unique to ignore.

 

Reminds of the time when Bud Spencer visited bookshops to present his autobiography, you had people queueing up ten hours before he was supposed to arrive, clogging the whole area. I think in Berlin they even hadto shut things down because there were way too many people around, and they also ran out of books, even though they had more than 1000+ at the store. And this wasn't the usual hype-crowd, it was grown men and women of all ages, from the entire social spectrum.

 

*Sigh* the good old days

 

Edited August 23, 2018 by George Parr