BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[el sid]

Yes, frustrating. The ticket prices are high but didn't rise that much in the last years to explain this decline. And it's also not that there were too many bad movies, too many sequels maybe, but enough smaller new films with good reviews also failed because there was just no interest.

The Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:
Kingsman: only 32k - so the estimates were completely worthless yesterday. I wonder what happened. The weather is absolutely not to blame as cold as it is in the evenings now...That it's at the same level as the first one is ok IMO too when you look at this disappointing and boring cinema-year.
Ninjago: 11k
Schloss aus Glass: 2k
Hereinspaziert!: 1.5k

Holdovers (at least the older films had definitely a lot of walk ups yesterday, hopefully also the films which were not mentioned in the report like Barry Seal and Lucky Logan):
High Society: 12k (actuals last Thursday 16k)
The Circle: 8k (11k)
mother!: 6.5k (10k)

There's another issue which won't help: On Sunday the federal election takes place in Germany and many people will prefer to sit in front of their TV or laptop in the afternoon and evening.

I also hope that „It“ will be a big hit. The reservations still look very good and it has caught a nice release date because of the legal holiday („Tag der Deutschen Einheit“) on Oct. the 3rd, a Tuesday.

Edited September 22, 2017 by el sid

[George Parr]

I'd say high ticket prices very much are the reason. Prices don't need to rise much, it is enough when they are constantly at a high level. High prices paired with nothing worth of interest leads to not a lot of people going to the movies. France takes the opposite approach, and it is succeeding with it. That isn't to say that moving to similar prices would have the same effect here, sometimes the damage is already done.

 

Simply put, the foreign releases didn't really offer much this year. Comic book movies don't matter all that much here, so that already takes away stuff like Wonder Woman, GotG, Spiderman or Logan. Though GotG did rather well for that kind of movie actually. Despicable Me 3 simply isn't Minions, which always have been the most popular part about that franchise, but it still improved over part 2. Beauty and the Beast is tough to judge, but these kind of remakes don't seem to raise much interest here either. BatB is already at the upper end, compared to a movie like Jungle Book. So more or less everything big that came out in the US doesn't really match the tastes of the german audiences. POTC, as a former popular franchise collapsed even more. The only biggish movies that probably held better in Germany than in the US were Fifty Shades Darker and FF8, with a surprisingly good number for Baywatch, compared to what it made elsewhere. In other words: the US didn't really offer anything of worth lately, which showed in Germany as well. And the times before that looked lacklustre because the movies that succeeded elsewhere simply aren't what the audiences like here.

 

It's not like the rest of the year is hopeless. It seems to have decent presales, and the two biggest movies of the year haven't come out yet either.

[el sid]

5 hours ago, George Parr said:

I'd say high ticket prices very much are the reason. Prices don't need to rise much, it is enough when they are constantly at a high level. High prices paired with nothing worth of interest leads to not a lot of people going to the movies. France takes the opposite approach, and it is succeeding with it. That isn't to say that moving to similar prices would have the same effect here, sometimes the damage is already done.

 

Simply put, the foreign releases didn't really offer much this year. Comic book movies don't matter all that much here, so that already takes away stuff like Wonder Woman, GotG, Spiderman or Logan. Though GotG did rather well for that kind of movie actually. Despicable Me 3 simply isn't Minions, which always have been the most popular part about that franchise, but it still improved over part 2. Beauty and the Beast is tough to judge, but these kind of remakes don't seem to raise much interest here either. BatB is already at the upper end, compared to a movie like Jungle Book. So more or less everything big that came out in the US doesn't really match the tastes of the german audiences. POTC, as a former popular franchise collapsed even more. The only biggish movies that probably held better in Germany than in the US were Fifty Shades Darker and FF8, with a surprisingly good number for Baywatch, compared to what it made elsewhere. In other words: the US didn't really offer anything of worth lately, which showed in Germany as well. And the times before that looked lacklustre because the movies that succeeded elsewhere simply aren't what the audiences like here.

 

It's not like the rest of the year is hopeless. It seems to have decent presales, and the two biggest movies of the year haven't come out yet either.

Yes, partly it's the ticket prices. But often there's no interest in general. Everytime I walk through Munich on my way into the cinema I'm a bit "angry" to see the large amount of people who sit in the many lounges, pubs and cafés around where a single drink costs almost as much as a ticket (2D). And as said in earlier talks, cinema itself was never that popular here and now with many possibilities to see a film not long after its release comfortable at home it has become even more difficult. Obviously the quantity of fans who are willing to pay more for a theater experience is limited no matter which topics the films have.
But of course we also need fresh new ideas especially when it comes to the blockbusters and bigger films, that's true.
Let's see, the autumn could indeed make up for the summer and hopefully 2018 will offer more films that connect with the audience.

[el sid]

The second trend (every film stays either flat or did improve):

#1 Kingsman 2: 225k
#2 Ninjago: 150k
#3 High Society: 100k (-20%)
#4 The Circle 55k (-28%)
#5 Bullyparade: 50k (-52%)
#6 mother!: 45k (-35%)
#7 Annabelle 2: 37.5k (-43%)
#8 Lucky Logan 35k (-50%)
#9 Barry Seal: 32.5k (-50%-> not the holds I hoped for )
#10 Happy Family: 27.5k (-42%)
#11 Die Pfefferkörner: 25k (-39%)
 

Edited September 23, 2017 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

ugh, that's a 50% drop for Cruise ... mother! also with a drop in the 35% range despite the arthousey appeal. But Circle and High Society are holding well.

[Aristis]

With 3rd Trend Kingsman2 is now down to 210k...

 

Ninjago 150k

High Society 90k -28%/-41%

The Circle 52,5k -31%

Bully 52,5k -50%

mother! 42,5k -39%

Annabelle 40k -35%

Edited September 24, 2017 by Aristis

[KeepItU25071906]

1 hour ago, Aristis said:

With 3rd Trend Kingsman2 is now down to 210k...

Annabelle 40k -31%

Kingsman 

 

 

Annabelle has solid WOM, as I see.

[Aristis]

1 hour ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

Kingsman 

 

 

Annabelle has solid WOM, as I see.

Annabelle has great WOM for a Horror movie (even if I calculated a wrong drop...)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Kingsman 2	196.625	601	327	216.579	2.076.762	-	1
2	The Lego Ninjago Movie	157.515	558	282	163.695	1.224.829	-	1
3	High Society	90.294	482	187	282.327	2.321.404	-28	2
4	Bullyparade	55.315	633	87	1.729.509	13.957.871	-47	6
5	The Circle	50.308	343	147	312.092	2.575.335	-34	3
6	mother!	41.609	358	116	133.069	1.194.709	-41	2
7	Annabelle 2	36.807	438	84	561.138	5.003.434	-40	5
8	Happy Family	32.928	575	57	357.824	2.550.464	-30	5
9	American Made	31.513	493	64	281.902	2.367.821	-51	3
10	Logan Lucky	30.964	356	87	152.196	1.201.009	-70	2
11	Die Pfefferkörner und der Fluch …	26.198	524	50	144.493	930.236	-36	3
12	Despicable Me 3	22.659	450	50	4.486.335	36.864.244	-36	12
13	The Glass Castle	15.881	102	156	20.808	155.953	-	1
14	Grießnockerlaffäre	15.478	256	60	773.362	6.075.865	-53	8
15	Jugend ohne Gott	15.236	254	60	180.337	1.403.654	-31	4
16	A Teströl és Lélekröl	14.902	83	180	16.052	123.955	-	1
17	Emoji	14.825	369	40	623.456	4.483.764	-36	8
18	Ostwind 3	14.499	430	34	1.036.363	6.942.955	-38	9
19	The Hitman's Bodyguard	12.876	268	48	267.496	2.295.805	-62	4
20	À bras ouverts	12.417	194	64	23.310	163.706	-	1

 

Depressing weekend once more … Kingsman 2 didn't reach the first one's numbers (but at least is having something like a decent opening); The LEGO Ninjago Movie dropped hard from the prior LEGO movies (which were not too bestselling in the first place). Drops were bad, too … ugly, ugly weekend.

Next weekend: No way next weekend will be as depressing as this one - with two big openers, Cars 3 and It, business is bound to go up, but let's see if those releases live up to expectations. Even if Cars 2 was not that well received, an opening in the 500k range seems possible for the Pixar release, and the King adaption might soar to similar levels (I don't really believe so but with good presales and a final marketing push, 300k should be the absolutely lowest limit).

[Kramerica1975]

On 27.9.2017 at 8:36 AM, IndustriousAngel said:

Next weekend: No way next weekend will be as depressing as this one - with two big openers, Cars 3 and It, business is bound to go up, but let's see if those releases live up to expectations. Even if Cars 2 was not that well received, an opening in the 500k range seems possible for the Pixar release, and the King adaption might soar to similar levels (I don't really believe so but with good presales and a final marketing push, 300k should be the absolutely lowest limit).

I think It will be huge here with more than 600k. first weekend admission.

Edited September 28, 2017 by Kramerica1975

[IndustriousAngel]

that would be excellent! At least marketing is working hard, there's reviews in every paper and even some clowns in the streets, they're really pushing this! Would be a nice relief from the horrible summer.

[Aristis]

I don't think it will miss 500k. Early numbers seem to be great. If it won't be frontloaded it could reach 3xKingsman (or more considering Kingsman was frontloaded), I think...

 

I wan't the Thursday numbers!

[el sid]

Some Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

New releases:

It: 145.5k (released in 660 theaters, mostly reviews around 7/10, some are (even) better) - a great start! And the member of insidekino who counts and posts these estimates says it's a conservative estimate 
Cars 3 - Evolution: 4k evening only! (614, with one exception ok and good reviews)
Rock My Heart: ?k (365, mostly ok reviews, some are very good)
Victoria und Abdul: 6k (300, ok and good reviews)
Tal der Wölfe: Vaterland: ?k (ca. 70, no reviews so far)

Holdovers:

Kingsman - The Golden Circle: 21k (actuals last Thursday 32k) - would be a good hold
High Society: 6k (12k)
The Circle: 3.5k (8k) - probably again higher in actuals
mother!: 2k (6.5) - the same
Schloss aus Glas: 1k (2k)
Hereinspaziert! / À bras ouverts: 1.5k (1.5k)

Edited September 28, 2017 by el sid

[TalismanRing]

On 9/23/2017 at 6:32 AM, IndustriousAngel said:

ugh, that's a 50% drop for Cruise ... mother! also with a drop in the 35% range despite the arthousey appeal. But Circle and High Society are holding well.

 

The Circle?  Why????????????????????????????

 

 

 

 

[MinaTakla]

Austria Yearly Box Office

Rank	Movie Title	Distributor	Gross	Release
1	Despicable Me 3	UPI	$4,883,728	7/7
2	Fifty Shades Darker	UPI	$4,449,808	2/10
3	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	Disney	$4,173,297	3/16
4	The Fate of the Furious	UPI	$4,159,760	4/14
5	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales	Disney	$3,717,328	5/25
6	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	Disney	$3,450,633	4/27
7	Baywatch	PPI	$3,443,070	6/1
8	The Boss Baby	Fox	$2,259,646	3/30
9	Spider-Man: Homecoming	Sony	$1,755,851	7/14

Edited September 29, 2017 by MinaTakla

[IndustriousAngel]

Oh wow, Friday estimates arew online and it's looking much better than I thought; It is on its way to a 750k+ weekend! Cars3 otoh is behind my expectations with only 275k, but finally a really good overall weekend! Kingsman2 is estimated at 150k, that would be a 24% drop - nice after the not so great opening!

[el sid]

It looked like "It" has a 3-4 multiplier compared to Kingsman yesterday so I'm not surprised. But let's hope it's not too frontloaded. Reservations look very good for today and Saturday but Sunday could be better. Monday is often used as a bridge day and Tuesday is a legal holiday.

And some Thursday actuals (source as always Blickpunkt:Film):

It: 130k / 1.2M Euro / 1.4M US$ - a little bit disappointing compared to yesterday, even lower than the conservative estimate
Cars 3: 20k
Kingsman 2: 20k - very nice (32k last Thursday)
High Society: 7.5k
Victoria und Abdul: 7.3k -> 60k OW predicted in the first trend, in line with expectations
Tal der Wölfe: Vaterland: 3.150 admissions
Rock My Heart: 2k -> 27.5k OW predicted, underperforming

Edited September 29, 2017 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

I saw Victoria & Abdul yesterday, well received but not a big seller - should have some legs though. With the big marketing push, a bit of frontloading for It seems only natural, let's see how it plays out but with those numbers it should still be doing fine until helloween.

[Giesi]

Mark G has to delay the Saturday Update, but he says in the forum that IT has risen to 850k on the low-end already

It‘s just getting bigger and bigger, 2nd biggest opening weekend of 2017 should be reachable.

[the beast]

So How is IT's weekend looking in terms of dollars?