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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Lion King opens strong

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6 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Monday numbers are up quite a bit. And while it isn't a good WE (2nd worst of the year probably despite some holidays in the south) it's much better than feared first.

 

Aladdin 140k (-27%) 1,255M

MIB:I 122,5k

JW3 70k (-44%) crossed 900k

DP 60k (-52%/-55%)

Rocketman 60k (-29%)

 

AEG is at 4,985M, so it did around ~47k in 7 days compared to 43k last 4-day WE.

This is bad or good sign? 

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15 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

This is bad or good sign? 

I edited my post with a better comparison:

 

AEG is at 4,985M, so it did around ~46k in 7 days compared to 56k the 7 days before, a drop of just 18%.

 

But I think the 4-day didn't drop as well as that suggests (still better than -50%) because the midweek seems to have been strong (Aladdin for example had ~145k midweek and 140k WE).

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Posted (edited)

AEG excellent trending ... Aladdin doing well too .. rest all poor 

Edited by Sunny Max

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Aristis said:

I edited my post with a better comparison:

 

AEG is at 4,985M, so it did around ~46k in 7 days compared to 56k the 7 days before, a drop of just 18%.

 

But I think the 4-day didn't drop as well as that suggests (still better than -50%) because the midweek seems to have been strong (Aladdin for example had ~145k midweek and 140k WE).

Monday was Pentecost, Aladdin did 75k on Monday, 70k on Tuesday and Wednesday combined. Same goes for AEG, so of those 46k adm. about half are the weekdays so weekend probably was around 22-24k.

 

 

2 hours ago, Sunny Max said:

AEG excellent trending ... Aladdin doing well too .. rest all poor 

Rocketman dropped just 29% that's just slightly worse than Aladdin and even JW3's hold is okay.

And DP had a better hold than in most other countries just a 52/55% drop.

And AEG had a drop of ~50% that's not excellent trending.

Edited by Taruseth
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1 hour ago, Taruseth said:

Monday was Pentecost, Aladdin did 75k on Monday, 70k on Tuesday and Wednesday combined. Same goes for AEG, so of those 46k adm. about half are the weekdays so weekend probably was around 22-24k.

 

 

Rocketman dropped just 29% that's just slightly worse than Aladdin and even JW3's hold is okay.

And DP had a better hold than in most other countries just a 52/55% drop.

And AEG had a drop of ~50% that's not excellent trending.

Ok thank you ..  

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6 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Monday was Pentecost

Of course it was :slaphead: I really forgot that...

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Five Feet Apart:

Spoiler

Monday 17thJune 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-2) Cinestar Bremen

Wednesday – Preview:

2D 19:45: 77 / 572 -> 13.46% (+9)

 

Thursday:

2D 15:00: 0 / 322

2D 17:40: 0 / 322

2D 19:50: 2 / 425

2D 22:45: 0 / 425

 

Total: 2 / 1494 -> 0.13%

 

Friday:

2D 15:00: 0 / 322

2D 17:40: 0 / 322

2D 19:50: 2 / 425

2D 22:45: 0 / 425

 

Total: 2 / 1494 -> 0.13%

 

Saturday:

2D 15:00: 2 / 322

2D 17:40: 0 / 322

2D 19:50: 0 / 425

2D 22:45: 0 / 425

 

Total: 2 / 1494 -> 0.13%

 

Sunday:

2D 12:10: 0 / 322

2D 15:00: 0 / 322

2D 17:40: 0 / 322

2D 19:50: 0 / 425

 

Total: 0 / 1391 -> 0%

 

Total without Preview: 6 / 5873 -> 0.1%

Total with Preview: 83 / 6445 -> 1.29%

 

Monday 17thJune 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-2) CinemaxX Bremen

Wednesday – Preview:

2D 20:00: 9 / 228 -> 2.59% 

 

Thursday:

2D 14:00: 0 / 288

2D 17:00: 0 / 454

2D 20:00: 2 / 454

2D 23:00: 0 / 454

 

Total: 2 / 1650 -> 0.12%

 

Friday:

2D 14:00: 0 / 288

2D 17:00: 0 / 454

2D 20:00: 0 / 454

2D 23:00: 0 / 454

 

Total: 0 / 1650 -> 0%

 

Saturday:

2D 11:45: 0 / 228

2D 14:00: 0 / 288

2D 17:00: 0 / 288

2D 20:00: 0 / 454

2D 23:00: 0 / 454

 

Total: 0 / 1712 -> 0%

 

Sunday:

2D 12:00: 0 / 505

2D 14:00: 0 / 288

2D 17:00: 0 / 288

2D 20:00: 0 / 454

2D 23:00: 0 / 454

 

Total: 0 / 1989 -> 0%

 

Total without Preview: 2 / 7001 -> 0.03%

Total with Preview: 11 / 7229 -> 0.15%

 

 

 

(T-2)

Previews: 77 + 9+ 29 = 115

Thursday: 2 + 2 + 0 = 4

Friday: 2 + 0 + 3 = 5

Saturday: 2 + 0 + 2 = 4

Sunday: 0 + 0 + 0 = 0

Total wo Previews: 6 + 2 +5 = 13

Total w Previews: 83 + 11 + 34 = 128

 

Absolutely overindexed for the Previews at the Cinestar Bremen.

Comps for this: 

 

Previews:

Aladdin: 227 => 158k OWend incl. Previews

John Wick 3: 412 => 92k OWend incl. Previews

Godzilla: 146 => 126k OWend incl. Previews

Rocketman: 112 => 145k OWend incl. Previews

Dark Phoenix: 59 => 260k OWend incl. Previews

MIBI: 44 => 320k OWend incl. Previews

 

Probably almost all of them are useless, while this probably will have nice Previews I think the weekend will be rather bad, considering the good hold for Aladdin and the small holiday in southern Germany (about 30% of the population) I think Aladdin has a small chance at 100k 5thweekend and with that probably a chance at #1 for the fifth time in a row but right now I’d say FFA should do a little more maybe something around 120k (Godzilla)

 

Wend:

Aladdin: presales went on sale on Tuesday so a full day later

John Wick 3: presales went on sale on Tuesday so a full day later

Godzilla: 97 => 18.8k incl. Previews

Rocketman: 48 => 32k incl. Previews 

Dark Phoenix: 53 => 30k invl. Previews

MIBI:

 

This were so few showings and all basically sold nothing that I just quickly looked through them.

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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Aladdin

140.490

658

214

1.258.225

11.667.176

-27

4

2

Men in Black - International

112.677

628

179

123.085

1.240.666

-

1

3

John Wick 3

70.986

549

129

930.812

8.670.241

-43

4

4

X-Men - Dark Phoenix

59.269

597

99

258.789

2.683.280

-52

2

5

Rocketman

59.048

606

97

381.287

3.497.592

-31

3

6

Godzilla 2

38.353

486

79

342.410

3.569.902

-48

3

7

Pokémon Detektive Pikachu

36.303

568

64

1.286.794

11.008.800

-30

6

8

TKKG

29.024

517

56

110.366

734.432

-4

2

9

Avengers - Endgame

22.922

289

79

4.986.437

56.167.001

-47

8

10

Ma

22.875

300

76

143.533

1.240.059

-44

3

11

The Dead Don't Die

20.590

131

157

37.528

277.361

-

1

12

The Hustle

17.865

282

63

620.756

5.116.721

-40

6

13

A Dog's Journey

15.122

256

59

15.122

112.045

-

1

14

The Queen's Corgi

9.657

341

28

237.394

1.601.251

+12

7

15

Der Fall Collini

6.159

229

27

717.937

6.276.012

-63

9

16

Buh-Ning

5.609

63

89

19.550

173.007

-33

2

17

Qu'est-ce qu'on a encore fait au Bon Dieu?

5.443

173

31

1.241.421

10.150.605

-48

11

18

Britt-Marie var här

5.416

100

54

7.872

58.250

-

1

19

Wonder Park

4.989

226

22

501.575

3.490.878

+4

10

20

Hollywoodtürke

4.897

53

92

4.897

41.945

-

1

 

Not too bad - at least, more than 10 movies with >10k admissions - but with MiB International near flopping, the overall weekend left a bitter aftertaste. I also expected a bit more from The Dead Don't Die

Next weekend: Three releases that might be positive surprises - Long Shot, Brightburn and Tolkien - but none of them with real hit potential; Aladdin might spend a 5th weekend on the throne. Also opening: Au bout des doigts, a french feel-good movie that might catch on - no big opener for sure but could have excellent legs. And there are quite a few previews for Pets2 which might hurt other family stuff a bit.

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So AEG is all set to cross 5 M admissions ... Nice ...

 

Aladdin life time adm ... ?? any estimate 

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

So AEG is all set to cross 5 M admissions ... Nice ...

 

Aladdin life time adm ... ?? any estimate 

 

Insidekino does estimates every week, the current one for Aladdin is 1.55M.

Edited by Tower
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1 hour ago, Sunny Max said:

So AEG is all set to cross 5 M admissions ... Nice ...

well, after the opening, 6mil seemed possible, so a bit underwhelming in that respect but still excellent result, btw, in Austria Endgame has already crossed 600k total, so it does better here than in Germany, and accordingly, Austrias May numbers are not too shabby - still far from satisfying but better than 2018 and 2017. (we had a really nasty May here, nearly three weeks of rain and cold ...)

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2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

well, after the opening, 6mil seemed possible, so a bit underwhelming in that respect but still excellent result, btw, in Austria Endgame has already crossed 600k total, so it does better here than in Germany, and accordingly, Austrias May numbers are not too shabby - still far from satisfying but better than 2018 and 2017. (we had a really nasty May here, nearly three weeks of rain and cold ...)

hmmm yeah still excellent result .. but was expecting more .. 

 

thank you   :) 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

well, after the opening, 6mil seemed possible, so a bit underwhelming in that respect but still excellent result, btw, in Austria Endgame has already crossed 600k total, so it does better here than in Germany, and accordingly, Austrias May numbers are not too shabby - still far from satisfying but better than 2018 and 2017. (we had a really nasty May here, nearly three weeks of rain and cold ...)

 

4 hours ago, Sunny Max said:

hmmm yeah still excellent result .. but was expecting more .. 

 

thank you   :) 

During OWend I don't think 6m was really thought to be possible:

On 4/25/2019 at 10:32 PM, Taruseth said:

No, with better exchange rates surely.

$50M are locked and $60M likely.

for $70M ≈ €63 -> 5.5M (avg ticket price €11.46) that's a little too high.

[...]

 

 

 

 

On 2nd Friday when insidekino said 1+m 2nd Wend I went a little overboard and then 6m appeared to might be possible:

On 5/3/2019 at 10:12 AM, Taruseth said:

Wow,

1.05m Second Weekend, damn. Would mean like €12m ≈ $13.4m

IW added 2.325m after OW, that would mean 6.2m final, but I guess that 1st May already was and that Endgame might drop when the weather get's better again will prevent it from getting that far, but it at least has a chance to get to that (which would make it the highest attended movie since TFA...)

Right now I'd say realistic target is 5.7m.

[...]

3

Even stayed a little too optimistic during the end of the 2nd Wend and saw a chance for it to go higher:

On 5/5/2019 at 12:42 PM, Taruseth said:

Wouldn't bet on it yet, but i'd say yes.

$65m ≈ €58.3m ≈ 5.2m adm and it should get that without too many problems and actually could, approach 70m, so I won't go that far without knowing the drop next weekend.

After that, the target was Spider-Man 1 (5.19m) with the realistic scenario being below it.

On 5/10/2019 at 11:47 AM, Taruseth said:

Endgame slightly worse than I thought:

  Reveal hidden contents
 

Endgame vs TLJ  (In brackets are the totals) - Final for TLJ was 5906k

Before Weekend: 462k vs 0k -> +462k

OWend: 1672k (2134k) vs 1627k -> +45k (+507k)

OWdays: 707k (2841k) vs 490k (2117k) ->+217k (+724k)

2nd Wend: 871k (3712k) vs 721k (2838k) -> +150k (+874k)

2nd Wdays: 163k (3875k) vs 706k (3544k) -> -548k (+326k)

3rd Wend: 425k (4300k) vs 849k (4393k) -> -424k (+93k)

3rd Wdays: 90k (4390k) vs 351k (4744k) -> -261k (-354k)

4th Wend: 275k (4665k) vs 467k (5211k) -> -192k (-546k)

4th Wdays: 60k (4725k) vs 91k (5302k) -> -31k (-577k)

5th Wend: 150k (4875k) vs 202k (5504k) -> -52k (-629k)

5th Wdays: 35k (4910k) vs 49k (5553k) -> -14k (-643k)

6th Wend: 90k (5000k) vs 110k (5663k) -> -20k (-663k)

6th Wdays: 25k (5025k) vs 28k (5691k) -> -3k (-666k)

 

TLJ had 215k more admissions after that, if Endgame would add that it would get to 5240k, which is probably the highest it could go, would mean a little below €60m, translating to ~$67m. It would also mean that it would beat Spider-Man 1 (5186k) in adm.

 

More realistic would probably a finish closer to 5m adm and with that slightly below Spider-Man 1.

2

And from there on it always was around 5m, some bad drops made me lower the final one to a little below 5m but then holidays made it rise above 5m again but not by much.

 

I'd say that the 2nd and 3rd Wend drop basically pointed towards something around 5m (I thought it might be able to develop somewhat better legs) but for a movie that increased that much compared to the other movies in an almost dead market, I think that's really impressive.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Taruseth
Changed a small part in the beginning because I hope it sounds better now
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5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

During OWend I don't think 6m was really in the room:

On 4/26/2019 at 1:32 AM, Taruseth said:

Hmmm okkk .. but still its excellent result .. 5 M admissions .. 

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Posted (edited)

 Five Feet apart:

Spoiler

Wednesday 19thJune 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Bremen

Thursday:

2D 15:00: 0 / 322

2D 17:40: 0 / 322

2D 19:50: 12 / 425

2D 22:45: 0 / 425

 

Total: 12 / 1494 -> 0.8% (+10)

 

Friday:

2D 15:00: 0 / 322

2D 17:40: 0 / 322

2D 19:50: 6 / 425

2D 22:45: 0 / 425

 

Total: 6 / 1494 -> 0.4% (+4)

 

Saturday:

2D 15:00: 2 / 322

2D 17:40: 0 / 322

2D 19:50: 2 / 425

2D 22:45: 2 / 425

 

Total: 6 / 1494 -> 0.4% (+4)

 

Sunday:

2D 12:10: 0 / 322

2D 15:00: 2 / 322

2D 17:40: 0 / 322

2D 19:50: 0 / 425

 

Total: 2 / 1391 -> 0.26% (+2)

 

Total without Preview: 26 / 5873 -> 0.48% (+20)

 

Wednesday 19thJune 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) CinemaxX Bremen

Thursday:

2D 14:00: 0 / 288

2D 17:00: 4 / 454

2D 20:00: 2 / 454

2D 23:00: 0 / 454

 

Total: 6 / 1650 -> 0.12% (+4)

 

Friday:

2D 14:00: 0 / 288

2D 17:00: 0 / 454

2D 20:00: 0 / 454

2D 23:00: 0 / 454

 

Total: 0 / 1650 -> 0%

 

Saturday:

2D 11:45: 0 / 228

2D 14:00: 3 / 288

2D 17:00: 0 / 288

2D 20:00: 0 / 454

2D 23:00: 0 / 454

 

Total: 3 / 1712 -> 0% (+3)

 

Sunday:

2D 12:00: 0 / 505

2D 14:00: 0 / 288

2D 17:00: 0 / 288

2D 20:00: 0 / 454

2D 23:00: 0 / 454

 

Total: 0 / 1989 -> 0%

 

Total without Preview: 9 / 7001 -> 0.13% (+7)

 

Wednesday 19th June 2019 23:59 MESZ (T-0) Cinestar Metropolis Frankfurt

Thursday:

2D 14:00: 8 / 273

2D 16:50: 9 / 273

2D 19:45: 16 / 273

2D 22:40: 4 / 273

Total: 37 / 1092 -> 3.39 % (+37)

 

Friday:

2D 14:00: 2 / 273

2D 16:50: 5 / 273

2D 19:45: 3 / 273

2D 22:40: 0 / 273

Total: 10 / 1092 -> 0.92 % (+7)

 

Saturday:

2D 14:00: 3 / 273

2D 16:50: 0 / 273

2D 19:45: 0 / 273

2D 22:40: 0 / 273

Total: 3 / 1092 -> 0.27 % (+1)

 

Sunday:

2D 14:00: 0 / 273

2D 16:50: 0 / 273

2D 19:45: 0 / 273

2D 22:40: 0 / 273

Total: 0 / 1092 -> 0 % (+0)

 

Total without Previews: 50 / 4368 -> 1.14% (+45)

 

(T-0)

Thursday: 12 +6 + 37 = 55

Friday: 6 + 0 + 10 = 16

Saturday: 6 + 3 + 3 = 12

Sunday: 2 + 0 + 0 = 2

Total wo Previews: 26 + 9 +50 = 85

 

Wend:

Aladdin: 493 => 50k + 7k = 57k

John Wick 3: 967 => 25k + 4k = 29k

Godzilla: 328 => 36 k + 6k = 42k

Rocketman: 175 => 58k + 8k = 66k

Dark Phoenix: 333 => 32k + 5k = 37k 

MIBI: 221 => 43k + 7k = 50k

 

So 60k??? (No idea) 

These look awful I only did a quick check for Long Shot I’d say Long Shot looks somewhat similar to this movie and Brightburn has basically sold nothing, not even tomorrow, I guess that movie could open below 25k.

If these would turn out true Aladdin would defend #1 for a fifth! week

The last movie to be #1 for five weekends was Despicable Me 3 (1st-4th weekend and 6th weekend).

The last movie to do that consecutive was Minions in 2015! with 5 (1st-5th and 7th and 10th, yeah Germany loved that movie)

Not even TFA did 5 weekends at #1.

 

 

Though I guess that this might be rather walkup heavy and in the end will be able to top 100k or maybe (probably more likely) Long Shot is actually the winner and has more than 100k adm over the Wend.

Edited by Taruseth
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Pets 2:

 

(T-3)

Sold: 95 / 2768 -> 3.43%

Comps.:

Rocketman ~90

Godzilla ~110

John Wick 3: 326

Aladdin: 173

Dark Phoenix: 47

MIBI: 43

Five Feet Apart: 100

 

So looks okay I’d say nothing big but this is also for a Sunday so I think that it still has the chance to out open every other Summer movie (but Endgame) on the true weekend even though preview numbers don’t suggest it

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Early weekend estimates from insidekino.de: Aladdin stays on top with 150k admissions (increase!!!), best opener Five Feet Apart with 125k; overall good holds.

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Bad weather?

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1 hour ago, Omni said:

Bad weather?

Weather is not much different from last weekend I'd say but it's a kind of long weekend (Thu a holiday in many regions and Austria) which does help a lot.

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