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BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

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58 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

The original TLK had over 11m admission in 1994 german, while before EG, none of the avengers film hit 4m admission in german. Marvels franchise isn't a monster here in germany.   To think that TLK will be open below EG is insane. Yet we are here..

Aladdin (1993) had 6,35M admissions, BATB (1992) had 5,18M. The remakes switched places though and BATB (2016) did 3,43M and Aladdin (2019) may get to 1,85M. It's not just the originals numbers that determine the remakes. To a big part it's the circumstances.

A:IW already opened to 1,075M and even though I doubted for a long that A:EG would top its predecessor a 1M+ OW was pretty certain. As for TLK an opening in that range wasn't assured, the BATB remake had the biggest OW at 864k...

 

So I have to agree to Taruseth, opening lower has always been probable. It's the possible end result below A:EG that is quite shocking. But a big part of that is the huge overperformance by the last Avengers.

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1 hour ago, john2000 said:

i mean endgame made almost 30 million on ow even bigger than tfa

Wrong, Endgame opened below TFA no matter how you look at it.

Endgame vs TFA:

adm: 1672k vs. 2139k

€: 19.224m vs 25.345m

$: 21.427m vs 27.227m

 

5-day OWend for Endgame vs TFA (4-day)

adm: 2134k vs 2139k

€: 24.322m vs 25.345m

$: 27.109m vs 27.227m

 

 

Yep, ATP over the run: TFA: €11.32 and Endgame: €11.25.

Why? Summer vs Winter and lower 3d share is likely and on top of that CinemaxX and Cinestar at least offer tickets for €5.95/5.5 + 3d/name/lenght since the beginning of last year.

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

 

The original TLK had over 11m admission in 1994 german, while before EG, none of the avengers film hit 4m admission in german. Marvels franchise isn't a monster here in germany.   To think that TLK will be open below EG is insane. Yet we are here..

Not really, TLK 1994 opened with around 980k adm, it just had really great legs. IW opened with more than 1m.

I guess Marvel slowly is getting bigger here too, or maybe the other movies are just falling apart.

 

16 minutes ago, john2000 said:

any idea about final total ?

Totally depends on leg, 10m on 4-day OWend should point towards a total above 35m as that would need just a 3.5x which would be not really good for a family  movie. And theoretically it could do above 50m too if the holds are good and the OWend comes in higher.

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5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Wrong, Endgame opened below TFA no matter how you look at it.

Endgame vs TFA:

adm: 1672k vs. 2139k

€: 19.224m vs 25.345m

$: 21.427m vs 27.227m

 

5-day OWend for Endgame vs TFA (4-day)

adm: 2134k vs 2139k

€: 24.322m vs 25.345m

$: 27.109m vs 27.227m

 

 

Yep, ATP over the run: TFA: €11.32 and Endgame: €11.25.

Why? Summer vs Winter and lower 3d share is likely and on top of that CinemaxX and Cinestar at least offer tickets for €5.95/5.5 + 3d/name/lenght since the beginning of last year.

Not really, TLK 1994 opened with around 980k adm, it just had really great legs. IW opened with more than 1m.

I guess Marvel slowly is getting bigger here too, or maybe the other movies are just falling apart.

 

Totally depends on leg, 10m on 4-day OWend should point towards a total above 35m as that would need just a 3.5x which would be not really good for a family  movie. And theoretically it could do above 50m too if the holds are good and the OWend comes in higher.

oh that was for the 4day ? i am so sorry :(

 

is 5 multi for family movies normal ?

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2 hours ago, john2000 said:

oh that was for the 4day ? i am so sorry :(

 

is 5 multi for family movies normal ?

Even Endgame's 5-day was barely below TFA's 4-day (and multi for Endgame is 3.025x and 4.235x for TFA).

 

No, not quite I'd say multi for family movies is normally around 4.5 and around 3.5x for other movies, multis rarely dip below a 3x, only movie that I can remember (out of the top movies) is F&F8 with a 2.8x. But there obviously can be outliners in both directions like Aladdin (will end with something above 6.4x) or Pets 2 which had an absolutely dead OWend and that means it will end around a 12x or Endgame which due to its high OWend had a rather meh multi.

 

Live action multis:

On 7/4/2019 at 1:44 PM, Aristis said:

I hope Aladdin can get to 1,6M this WE. InsideKino predicts it to final at 1,75M.

 

 

Title

Total

OW

Multipler

1

BATB

3,430

0,864

x3,97

32,98

2

AiW

2,968

0,544

x5,46

28,00

3

TJB

1,877

0,460

x4,08

17,63

4

Aladdin

1,750

0,289

x6,06

16,00

5

Maleficent

1,467

0,359

x4,09

13,61

6

Oz

1,147

0,273

x4,20

11,62

7

Nutcracker

1,091

0,259

x4,21

9,10

8

Cinderella

1,068

0,274

x3,90

7,24

9

AiW2

0,831

0,199

x4,18

7,72

10

Dumbo

0,705

0,155

x4,55

5,30

*All numbers in Mio. Thanks to Taruseth I now have all OW actuals.

 

Actually, as seen in context of all movies, Aladdin numbers are quite well. With worse weather it would have made more than 2M easily, though it was massively helped by the lack of competition.

Most of them end with a multi around 4x. With AiW and Aladdin being the outliners, Dumbo and AiW2 are below TLK's 4-day OWend so not a comp I would use.

 

Hope this is heading for a 4x too.

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Seems like TLK did around 640k (Thu to Sat) and 850k since Wed. That makes reaching close to 1M 4-day and 1,2M 5-day really hard. There's no 3rd Trend yet but it may be down to 900k and 1,1M... Still a great result, especially with the weather.

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3 hours ago, Aristis said:

Seems like TLK did around 640k (Thu to Sat) and 850k since Wed. That makes reaching close to 1M 4-day and 1,2M 5-day really hard. There's no 3rd Trend yet but it may be down to 900k and 1,1M... Still a great result, especially with the weather.

3rd Trend:

MarkG still thinks TLK can do 1,2M till Sun, though he says that it's up to the weather.

 

No big changes for other movies, FFH down to 140k though.

Aladdin 32,5k (-62%) probably around 1,8M.

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4 hours ago, Aristis said:

3rd Trend:

MarkG still thinks TLK can do 1,2M till Sun, though he says that it's up to the weather.

 

No big changes for other movies, FFH down to 140k though.

Aladdin 32,5k (-62%) probably around 1,8M.

If he thinks 1.2M than it either would mean a 350k Sunday after 210, 175k, 215k, 240k over the first 4-days or Saturday was better and it looks more like 210k, 175k, 215k, 275k, 325k. The former won't happen, the later is possible, I'd say (number in brackets are from the 17:00 count):

 

Cinestar Bremen:

2D 17:00: 163

2D 19:30: 146 (17:00: 100 -> +46)

 

3D 17:30: 109 (17:00: 94 -> +15)

3D 20:20: 173 (17:00: 105 -> +68)

 

OV 3D 20:20: 72 (17:00: 67 ->+5)

 

Total: 591/663 (462/529) (Without OV/With OV)

 

And the whole days has been sunny (22-23 °C while yesterday was rainy around 5-6 pm) numbers are final count so in the last 15 minutes before show began, sorry only counted those showings:

2D 17:00: 95

2D 19:30: 121

 

3D 17:30: 85

3D 20:20: 183

3D 22:30: 51

 

So total: 535

 

So counting the shows after 17:00 today would be even with yesterday despite worse weather and probably slightly better midday shows, will try to update this post through out the evening.

 

19:56:

Now including the 19:30 2D showing I am 95% certain that Bremen is an outliner or I fucked up the counting yesterday and yesterday actually was more like 700 total.

 

20:30:

Well, today evening showings were 10.5%/23.9% above yesterday, yeah, that's not happening. Of off a 240k Saturday would be 265.2/297.4 for Sunday and a 895.2-927.4k admissions. No idea how this should get a 990k 4-day unless Saturday truly was around 275k and that would mean Sunday would be around 304k-340k which would put the Wend at 934-970k over the Wend.

 

 

Probably it over performed here today by quite something.

 

Edited by Taruseth
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Monday morning estimates:

 

TLK: 920k (+210k = 1130k)

 

FFH: 145k (Cume 1240k)

Pets 2: 145k (Cume: 1450k)

Yesterday: 70k

Annabelle 3: 50k

 

920k*3 = 2760k (disaster) (unlikely)

920k*3.5 = 3220k (meh)

920k*3.75 = 3450 (okay)

Most likely to land hear if the past is anything to go by.

920k*3.9 = 3588k (somewhat good) 

920k*4 = 3680k (nearly good)

920k*4.1 = 3772k (good)

920k*4.25 = 3910k (good) (highly unlikely)

920k*4.5 = 4140k (really good)

920k*5 = 4600k (incredibly good)

 

Second weekend will be really important, if it's below 500k its more likely headed towards less than 3500k, if it's better its probably headed towards more than that. If it's, which is almost totally impossible, above 700k than I'd say it's headed to a total north of 4M.

 

Most likely will land around 490-510k, though obviously WOM and weather can push this in both direction, hot and bad WOM and we could be looking at a Wend below 400k, bad weather, great WOM and we could be looking at 600+k, which is also why this is hard to predict.

Edited by Taruseth
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With Monday numbers TLK is down to 920k (4-day) and 1,13M (5-day) now. Still a great result (bigger that BATB OW [864k] despite opening on Wed already and facing great weather). It's up to legs now. But even if it had the lowest of all multiplers it could get to 3,5M+ so that should be the goal which would be enough to become the biggest of the Disney Remakes in Germany.

 

SM:FFH 145k (-53%) 1,24M

Pets2 145k (-59%) 1,45M

Yesterday 70k (-48%/-58%)

Annabelle 50k (-52%)

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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

The Lion King

921.781

746

1.236

1.131.362

11.215.340

-

1

2

Spider-Man - Far From Home

147.732

661

223

1.235.876

12.401.852

-52

3

3

Pets 2

145.103

721

201

1.454.805

11.601.990

-59

4

4

Yesterday

69.694

394

177

292.520

2.491.875

-48

2

5

Annabelle 3

49.651

443

112

364.468

3.230.220

-53

3

6

Aladdin

29.796

455

65

1.806.308

16.435.982

-66

9

7

Five Feet Apart

28.759

423

68

489.748

3.877.958

-60

5

8

Anna

22.810

236

97

40.841

311.869

-

1

9

Rocketman

15.734

258

61

592.814

5.354.883

-28

8

10

Child's Play

14.265

225

63

22.574

184.808

-

1

11

Made in China

12.639

176

72

24.586

164.745

-

1

12

John Wick 3

10.118

244

41

1.139.690

10.618.356

-62

9

13

Bohemian Rhapsody

8.966

98

91

3.581.614

33.063.281

+109

38

14

Der Junge muss an die frische Luft

7.661

62

124

3.644.089

30.247.263

+97

30

15

TKKG

6.162

377

16

229.195

1.487.351

-66

7

16

Kleiner Aladin und der Zauberteppich

5.567

354

16

30.898

199.505

-67

2

17

Pokémon Detektive Pikachu

5.319

248

21

1.398.212

11.824.595

-60

11

18

Qu'est-ce qu'on a encore fait au Bon Dieu?

5.140

33

156

1.279.462

10.418.450

+9

16

19

Green Book

5.053

47

108

1.503.454

13.135.899

+29

25

20

Kroos

5.044

172

29

54.833

463.361

-65

3

Strong opening for Lion King, less so for the other openers. Thanks to open-air shows, some longrunning favourites are back in the charts.

Next weekend: No strong openers, and fine weather - next weekend should see a steep decline (except those open-air shows of course)

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Germany is very strange when it comes to TS...

TS1 2,62M

TS2 2,85M (opened in February)

TS3 1,59M (opened in July)

TS4 1,5M?

 

Like Taruseth said, I wouldn't expect much - at best 1,5M (~$12,5M). Maybe, if the weather is very bad, it could do more than that...

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4 hours ago, Aristis said:

Germany is very strange when it comes to TS...

TS1 2,62M

TS2 2,85M (opened in February)

TS3 1,59M (opened in July)

TS4 1,5M?

 

Like Taruseth said, I wouldn't expect much - at best 1,5M (~$12,5M). Maybe, if the weather is very bad, it could do more than that...

So lower than Incredibles 2 and How to Train Your Dragon 3? 😕

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That wouldn't exactly be surprising. The first Incredibles was bigger than any Toy Story movie (3.5m admissions), and How to Train your Dragon 2 was also quite a bit bigger than Toy Story 3 (2.73m compared to 1.59m). Toy Story never really caught on here, especially when you look at what other franchises managed to do at that time (Ice Age, Madagascar, Shrek, etc.)

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5 hours ago, Aristis said:

Germany is very strange when it comes to TS...

TS1 2,62M

TS2 2,85M (opened in February)

TS3 1,59M (opened in July)

TS4 1,5M?

 

Like Taruseth said, I wouldn't expect much - at best 1,5M (~$12,5M). Maybe, if the weather is very bad, it could do more than that...

 

Ähm

 

EAEqjOgXkAAaiQc.png

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13

 

Bohemian Rhapsody

 

8.966

 

98

 

91

 

3.581.614

 

33.063.281

 

 

+109

 

 

38

 

19

 

Green Book

 

5.053

 

47

 

108

 

1.503.454

 

13.135.899

 

+29

 

 

25

 

For a second i thought i was in the wrong page, why are these 2 oscar movies suddenly come back alive?

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2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

13

 

Bohemian Rhapsody

 

8.966

 

98

 

91

 

3.581.614

 

33.063.281

 

 

+109

 

 

38

 

19

 

Green Book

 

5.053

 

47

 

108

 

1.503.454

 

13.135.899

 

+29

 

 

25

 

For a second i thought i was in the wrong page, why are these 2 oscar movies suddenly come back alive?

 

8 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Strong opening for Lion King, less so for the other openers. Thanks to open-air shows, some longrunning favourites are back in the charts.

 

As Industrious said, open air season begun.

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