BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[George Parr]

Monday numbers are in, and things look better than expected:

 

#1 Jurassic World 2 325k (-43% / -49% with previews)

#2 Deadpool 2 72.5k (-41%)

#3 Solo 65k (-51%)

#4 Papst Franziskus 45k

#5 Hereditary 25k

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, George Parr said:

Monday numbers are in, and things look better than expected:

 

#1 Jurassic World 2 325k (-43% / -49% with previews)

#2 Deadpool 2 72.5k (-41%)

#3 Solo 65k (-51%)

#4 Papst Franziskus 45k

#5 Hereditary 25k

 

Maybe some germans stopped watching the rather disappointing game and chose to go to the movies instead

[Taruseth]

What's up with BOM Germany's numbers, the one for Solo is to low, the one for JW2 is to high after the first weekend.

JW2: 8.06M (TFSS) and WTFSS (10.9M) the TFSS number is correct, the 10.9M number is the one for the first full week with the Wednesday (so WTFSSMTW)

 

And for Solo the Wednesday-previews are still missing

They say it's at $12M while it actually is at $13M (as of June 10th)

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany’s Top10 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Jurassic World 2	343.239	734	468	1.142.693	13.045.906	-40	2
2	Deadpool 2	72.220	592	122	1.954.926	17.815.321	-42	5
3	Solo	66.337	611	109	1.128.284	12.337.163	-50	4
4	Papst Franziskus	43.879	566	78	45.018	368.055	-	1
5	Hereditary	24.888	158	158	24.888	225.854	-	1
6	Avengers - Infinity War	18.764	366	51	3.304.876	37.064.550	-45	8
7	Luis & die Aliens	18.371	516	36	122.237	823.601	-10	4
8	Liliane Susewind	17.372	610	28	311.429	2.013.282	-16	6
9	Truth or Dare	14.443	315	46	444.966	3.765.501	-42	6
10	Every Day	13.044	321	41	90.867	701.556	-31	3

 

Not good at all but expected. Family stuff with good holds on a low level (further down the chart, Isle of Dogs had an increase!)

Next weekend: Oceans 8 might be sensible counterprogramming to the World Cup, let’s see if it can deliver! Otherwise, Germany’s Saturday game will destroy that evening.

[el sid]

The Saturday will become brutal, everyone who is at least slightly interested will watch the football match. At first sight you might think that boxoffice-wise it would be better if Germany loses but maybe then people are too depressed to do something else than sitting in the sun etc. At least for one or two weeks...
And if they win, which I hope and think, maybe people are in a much better mood and are also in the right mood for some entertaining summer movies. As mentioned the third match of the German team is on the next Wednesday so no real problem.

The Thursday estimates for the whole country look like that:
The new releases:

Ocean's 8: 30k – I would say that number is pretty ok or would be pretty ok with another weekend situation
The Strangers 2: 1k
Nicht ohne Eltern/Momo: under 1k

The holdovers (mediocre):

JW2: 22k (actuals last Thursday 45k)
Solo: 7.5k (11k)

DP2: 6.5k (13k)
Pope Francis - A Man of His Word: 5k (10k)
Hereditary: 2.5k (5k)
Overboard: under 1k (1.5k)
 

The South-West report counted today for JW2 504 admissions (last Thursday 967), for Solo 101 admissions (last week 245), DP2 had 122 admissions (312), A: IW had 34 (41) and Hereditary 49 (150) in the selected theaters.
And the new releases: Ocean's 8 300, Momo 25 and The Strangers 2 20.
→ So JW 2 loses in both reports ca. 50%, with that Saturday that's not so good. The smaller new releases look very muted in this report too.

Mark_G from insidekino.de predicts a minus of only 20% for JW 2, -35% for DP 2 and each 25% for Solo and A: IW this weekend. Ocean's 8 could have ca. 250-275k admissions. Both looks optimistic to me but maybe O8 had a lot of preview shows.

[Giesi]

What do you guys think for I2 bo potential? Over/under Dory?

[Aristis]

1 hour ago, Giesi said:

What do you guys think for I2 bo potential? Over/under Dory?

I'd like to say I have the feeling it could do more than 4M and actually increase from the 3,5M of the first one (it seems like a rare big Animation this year). But as you know, Germany likes underperforming, so I'd say under...

[Aristis]

But, to talk about the only bigger movie overperforming this year (maybe beside BP, that did great too):

AIW with 3,305M is the third biggest SH-movie in Germany in admissions only behind SM1 5,19M and Superman (1979) 4,15M.

It'll probably end with about 3,35M and €37,5M (up 38% and 33% from AoU). Its TP is actually down from €11,7 to €11,2 which is quite surprising...

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates are online, JW2 manages to stay on top if true:

#1: JW2 - 175k admissions (-49%)

#2: O8 - 160k incl. previews (don't know about Germany but we had some "Lady's Nights"

#3: Solo - 45k

#4: DP2 - 40k

strange that Solo should overtake DP2 but on this low level estimates are unreliable ... 160k for Ocean's 8 seem mediocre, I was hoping it could take the top spot.

[el sid]

The Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

Ocean's 8 (released in 636 theaters): 26.5k/255k US$
The Strangers 2 (210): 2.3k -> 15k OW predicted in the first trend
Nicht ohne Eltern/Momo (109): under 1k -> only 2.5k OW

The holdovers:

JW2: 29k (actuals last Thursday 45k) - better than in the estimates
DP2: 8k (13k)
Solo: 7.2k (11k)

Pope Francis - A Man of His Word: 7.1k (10k)

[HH84]

On 6/22/2018 at 8:24 AM, IndustriousAngel said:

First estimates are online, JW2 manages to stay on top if true:

#1: JW2 - 175k admissions (-49%)

#2: O8 - 160k incl. previews (don't know about Germany but we had some "Lady's Nights"

#3: Solo - 45k

#4: DP2 - 40k

strange that Solo should overtake DP2 but on this low level estimates are unreliable ... 160k for Ocean's 8 seem mediocre, I was hoping it could take the top spot.

I guess, it's because DP2 is a night movie and Germany plays tonight at 8 pm. Solo probably will be less effected by it.

[George Parr]

2nd trend is up, with some improvements:

 

#1 JW2 200k

#2 Ocean's 8 175k

#3 Solo 45k

#4 Deadpool 2 42.5k

#5 Papst Franziskus 35k

 

As for Solo over Deadpool, I think Marc_G said something along the lines of Solo running better in the afternoon, while Deadpool works better in the evening. With Saturday evening destroyed by the Germany World Cup game, this would make it tougher for Deadpool compared to Solo.

 

edit: ha, what a timing

Edited June 23, 2018 by George Parr

[George Parr]

3rd trend sees little change in the numbers. Deadpool 2 and Solo switch places and numbers, JW2 is up slightly:

 

#1 JW2 210k

#2 Ocean's 8 175k

#3 Deadpool 2 45k

#4 Solo 42.5k

#5 Papst Franziskus 35k

Edited June 24, 2018 by George Parr

[IndustriousAngel]

Actuals tomorrow but overall much better than estimates; while Sat evening was a disaster, a rainy Sunday helped limit the damage:

#1 JW2 245k

#2 Ocean's 8 190k (incl. prreviews)

#3/4 DP2 / Solo 50k each

#5 Papst Franziskus 45k 

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top12 (>10k adm.) last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Jurassic World 2	246.359	735	335	1.470.649	16.491.875	-28	3
2	Ocean's 8	161.893	636	255	197.013	1.707.529	-	1
3	Solo	49.444	509	97	1.204.720	13.115.678	-25	5
4	Deadpool 2	49.078	518	95	2.031.734	18.484.477	-32	6
5	Papst Franziskus	45.326	577	79	129.345	1.025.502	+3	2
6	Luis & die Aliens	32.418	524	62	158.572	1.060.354	+76	5
7	Liliane Susewind	30.921	588	53	345.642	2.229.234	+78	7
8	Hereditary	18.367	202	91	53.585	471.154	-26	2
9	Jim Knopf & Lukas	16.945	479	35	1.550.661	10.675.542	+94	13
10	The Strangers: Prey at Night	13.878	210	66	16.810	136.658	-	1
11	Avengers - Infinity War	13.244	261	51	3.324.982	37.266.440	-29	9
12	Every Day	10.373	284	37	106.553	816.336	-20	4

 

Well, it turned out better than expected - even a slight overall increase from last weekend thanks mainly to rainy weather and accordingly strong family shows. Ocean's 8 stayed a bit behind expectations but did basically ok. Holds were generally good, Jurassic World 2 has every chance to top 2mil total with no competition. Domestic children's book adaption Jim Knopf is showing excellent staying power, with end-of-school shows and possibly a good run during the OpenAir-season, it might crawl to 1,7mil total.

Next weekend: No big openers, this week's two leaders should stay on top with hopefully good holds.

[George Parr]

Should be interesting too see what has the bigger impact. On the positive side there is no Germany game next weekend, as Germany would play Monday or Tuesday if it advances. In theory that should ease the drop or lead to a slight boost compared to last Saturday. On the negative side, the weather seems to go into summer-mode again, and there still should be some decent World Cup games on the weekend, with the knockout-round starting.

[el sid]

With Germany not joining the round of 16, the theaters become more interesting again of course. Today also the weather is helpful; here in Bavaria it rained the whole day and overall it was mostly mixed I think. Unfortunately the weekend is predicted to become more sunny. Still, with Germany out I guess watching other teams on TV also has become rather unattractive for quite a few people.

The Thursday estimates for the whole country (really not bad):
Only numbers for one new release:
 

Love, Simon (starting in 366 theaters): 6.5k

The holdovers:

Ocean's 8: 27k (actuals last Thursday 26.5k)
JW2: 18k (29k) - maybe again underestimated
DP2: 5.5k (8k)
Solo: 5k (7.2k)

Pope Francis - A Man of His Word: 4k (7.1k) - so far it was always underestimated so probably today too
Hereditary: 1.5k (estimated 2.5k)
The Strangers 2: 1k (2.3k)
 

The South-West report of today looks nice for all movies: it showed an increase for O8 with 544 admissions (last Thursday 300), JW2 stayed almost flat with 494 (504), Solo had 102 (last week 101), DP2 206 (122) and A: IW also increased with 52 admissions (34) in the selected theaters.
And the biggest foreign new release - Love, Simon - had 180 which is at least better than the number for Hereditary on its day of release, that movie had 150.
→ Very good holds, even several increases and for Love, Simon it's also looking quite ok.

Mark_G from insidekino.de predicts a minus of 40% for O8, JW 2 and DP 2; Solo could drop 50% this weekend. Maybe the holds will be even a bit better with the new constellation; the predictions were made on early Wednesday, so before the match. 27% of the federal republic have school holidays.

Edited June 28, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

I think family movies have profited these weekdays from school shows (at least that's the case in Austria) so even if the weekend turns sunny weekly  numbers will be ok. Otherwise, Germany's early demise from the WorldCup is surely a plus for the BO but not by that much - Austria did not qualify at all and still our BO is suffering ... with the knockout rounds starting, matches will be even more interesting, Germany or no Germany.

[George Parr]

Uh, the first trend sure doesn't look pretty, lets hope things pick up a lot...

 

#1 JW2 100k (-59%)

#2 Ocean's 8 80k (-50% / -59% with previews)

#3 Love, Simon 57.5k

#4/5 Papst Franziskus 25k (-44%)

#4/5 Deadpool 2 25k (-49%)

[IndustriousAngel]

Solo not in the Top5 any longer ... O8 with a decent drop considering the market.