BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[IndustriousAngel]

Official numbers for Austria's June are now here; it was not the worst June in history and it wasn't even the worst 2nd quarter, but overall 2018 is still a disaster; less than 5mil admissions in the first half of the year is by far the worst result of the last years - 16% down from last year and 25-30% behind "good" years. Since CGI is always stong here, I have some hopes for I2, but basically the remaining schedule seems too weak to save 2018 from becoming the worst year since like forever.

[el sid]

As often, the Monday update looks better:

#1 The First Purge 155k
#2 JW2 122.5k/1.890M
#3 O8 80k/485k
#4 Meine teuflisch gute Freundin 35k/85k
#5 Love, Simon 32.5k/130k
#6 Pope Francis 30k/235k

#7 DP2 27.5k/2.130M

#8 How to Party with Mom 25k/35k
#9 Solo 20k/1.285M
...
Liebe bringt alles ins Rollen 6k/13k

[Taruseth]

59 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Official numbers for Austria's June are now here; it was not the worst June in history and it wasn't even the worst 2nd quarter, but overall 2018 is still a disaster; less than 5mil admissions in the first half of the year is by far the worst result of the last years - 16% down from last year and 25-30% behind "good" years. Since CGI is always stong here, I have some hopes for I2, but basically the remaining schedule seems too weak to save 2018 from becoming the worst year since like forever.

I don't fully know about Germany, but as it seems like the first half of the year is the worst this millennium (and probably the worst since 1992 or maybe even worse.

 

If the second half isn't at least somewhat okay, I think this year has a chance at becoming the first year since (before 1965 probably even before 1950) to have less than 100m admissions sold.

Right now I think it will end with about 105m adm.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	The First Purge	153.945	451	341	153.945	1.376.723	-	1
2	Jurassic World 2	122.964	641	192	1.887.907	20.781.953	-24	5
3	Ocean's 8	79.234	690	115	485.669	4.089.753	-23	3
4	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	34.596	482	72	85.606	591.453	+14	2
5	Love, Simon	32.466	437	74	128.614	904.464	-22	2
6	Papst Franziskus	29.564	597	50	251.012	1.945.829	-9	4
7	Deadpool 2	28.549	442	65	2.130.943	19.347.603	-27	8
8	How to Party with Mom	25.899	305	85	37.333	277.841	-	1
9	Solo	21.062	365	58	1.288.293	13.958.098	-32	7
10	Luis & die Aliens	13.963	459	30	197.241	1.298.971	+3	7
11	Liliane Susewind	10.527	516	20	377.576	2.420.308	+6	9
12	Hereditary	9.829	238	41	91.687	798.314	-38	4
13	Jim Knopf & Lukas	9.273	497	19	1.576.045	10.825.997	+22	15
14	WomanWalks Ahead	7.114	75	95	7.575	63.729	-	1
15	Avengers - Infinity War	6.778	162	42	3.351.115	37.522.321	-33	11
16	Tout le monde debout	6.215	132	47	13.329	90.007	-	1
17	Le Brio	4.102	101	41	51.694	372.675	-20	4
18	Die Wunderübung	3.808	76	50	17.391	126.558	-27	2
19	Peter Rabbit	3.728	339	11	1.505.314	10.005.107	+18	16
20	Candelaria	3.114	59	53	3.410	27.300	-	1

Some increases for family fare (Jim Knopf still showing some staying power, and Peter Rabbit has crossed 10mil €) and decent drops; among openers First Purge did ok while How to Party With Mom is flopping.

Next weekend: Skyscraper is the first really expensive opener since the start of the World Cup; while it may seem strange to open on the finals weekend, I think the idea is just of giving it one more weekend to breathe; it's the kind of stupid summer movie that can work with decent drops for many weekends. It should open to #1, despite the finals about 200k admissions should be possible.

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates for the whole country:
The new releases:

Skyscraper (released in 530 theaters): 16.5k – that's a bit meager
Adrift (346): 12.5k
 

The holdovers (overall good holds):

The First Purge: 21k (actuals last Thursday 32.5k) – hopefully this isn't a much too high estimate like it was the case last Thursday. In the South-West report beneath it looks like it will drop (a bit) more hefty.
Ocean's 8: 15k (17.5k) - a good hold again
JW 2: 12.5k (23k) - probably as always underestimated
Love, Simon: 4.5k (7.6k)

Pope Francis: 4.5k (estimated 6k) - so far it was always doing better in the actuals
DP 2: 4k (estimated 4.5k)
How to Party with Mom: 3.5k (5k)
 

The South-West report shows mediocre holds: For The First Purge it counted today 388 admissions (last Thursday 1.059), for JW2 264 (488), O8 had 222 (463), DP2 101 (152), Solo 31 (115, lost several screens).
And the biggest new release, Skyscraper attracted 292 moviegoers, Adrift 234 - they're surprisingly close together in this report too.
→ So in both reports, Skyscraper has to improve strongly over the weekend, otherwise it will for sure stay under the predictions.

Mark_G predicts moderate decreases for all holdovers of 20-25%, only The First Purge could decline by 35%. Skyscraper could open with around 175k admissions OW, Adrift with 75k.
50% of the federal republic have school holidays. But guess what, the weather forecast looks again very sunny.

[IndustriousAngel]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

Skyscraper (released in 530 theaters): 16.5k – that's a bit meager

you may say that again ... wow, what a poor number (and without any sports or other competition, too)

[Stewart]

11 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

you may say that again ... wow, what a poor number (and without any sports or other competition, too)

Based on my theaters in the UK, it's gonna open poorly here too.

 

However Incredibles 2 opens tomorrow, so it was bound to be slaughtered anyway

[Aristis]

This WE will be so bad again...

 

Skycraper 100k

JW2 100k (-19%) will cross 2M today or tomorow to be only the 4th(!) of the year to do so...

Purge 90k (-42%)

Adrift 75k

O8 60k (-24%)

HTPWM 40k (+14%) the third WE increase in a row, after the bad OW that's quite good...

[IndustriousAngel]

that's only half of what I expected Skyscaper to make ... at least some decent holds

[el sid]

And some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases:

Skyscraper: 20.5k/251k US$
Adrift: 15k
Foxtrot (50): 1.160
 

The holdovers:

JW 2: 20k (actuals last Thursday 23k)
The First Purge: 20k (32.5k)
Ocean's 8: 14k (17.5k)

[el sid]

Not much change in the second trend:

#1 The First Purge 100k

#2 JW 2 100k
#3 Skyscraper 100k
#4 Adrift 65k
#5 Ocean's 8 55k
#6 Meine teuflisch gute Freundin 30k

[IndustriousAngel]

The numbers may be shitty but at least the race for #1 is interesting close ... 🙁

[picores]

Skyscraper opening under JW sixth fucking weekend is kinda hilarious.

Edited July 14, 2018 by picores

[George Parr]

Monday numbers:

 

#1 The First Purge 105k

#2 Skyscraper 95k / 100k (with previews)

#3 JW 2 90k

#4 Adrift 57.5k / 67.5k (with previews)
#5 Ocean's 8 55k
#6 Meine teuflisch gute Freundin 30k

[IndustriousAngel]

In Austria, the weekend was a little better (same Top3 but better PTA) thanks mostly to rainier weather I guess.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top14 (>10k admissions) last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	The First Purge	104.911	483	217	312.047	2.714.858	-32	2
2	Skyscraper	94.575	531	178	99.262	1.078.328	-	1
3	Jurassic World 2	91.697	540	170	2.047.273	22.384.049	-25	6
4	Adrift	57.060	346	165	67.439	560.337	-	1
5	Ocean's 8	55.491	641	87	588.301	4.932.679	-30	4
6	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	30.829	529	58	147.788	1.002.152	-11	3
7	Papst Franziskus	21.445	420	51	297.834	2.297.773	-27	5
8	Love, Simon	21.196	462	46	172.962	1.233.811	-35	3
9	Deadpool 2	20.703	362	57	2.163.345	19.633.836	-27	9
10	How to Party with Mom	15.295	301	51	69.093	522.283	-41	2
11	Luis & die Aliens	15.171	462	33	228.829	1.497.606	+9	8
12	Solo	13.565	287	47	1.313.922	14.209.111	-36	8
13	Jim Knopf & Lukas	12.033	529	23	1.600.767	10.973.122	+30	16
14	Liliane Susewind	11.622	459	25	404.637	2.583.468	+10	10

 

Horrible numbers, Skyscraper just ridiculous … Family fare fared a bit better, some increases; Jim Knopf has now passed 1,6mil total and Jurassic World 2 sailed over 2mil with a surprisingly good hold.

Next weekend: Hotel Transylvania 3 is already in most theaters (it opened yesterday here) and is looking healthy; of course family stuff depends on weather conditions but even with sunny weather a 300k weekend should be doable.

[Aristis]

5 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Next weekend: Hotel Transylvania 3 is already in most theaters (it opened yesterday here) and is looking healthy; of course family stuff depends on weather conditions but even with sunny weather a 300k weekend should be doable.

You forgot Mamma Mia 2, which also opens this WE. This may finally be a bigger WE again.

[IndustriousAngel]

3 minutes ago, Aristis said:

You forgot Mamma Mia 2, which also opens this WE. This may finally be a bigger WE again.

You're right, opening tomorrow at my theater and presales look really strong - this is more like an event than a normal release and should work independent of weather!

[el sid]

The Thursday estimates for the whole country:
The new releases (a non-disappointing weekend coming?):

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (released in 793 theaters which is the largest release of the year so far): 115.5k – I really really hope that this number holds
Hotel Transylvania 3 (687): 8k (evening only, therefor that's quite good)
Sicario 2 (402): 11k - in line with expectations
 

The holdovers:

Skyscraper: 7.5k (actuals last Thursday 20.5k) - doesn't fit to the South-West report and it was underestimated in the estimates last week so I guess the actual number will go up
The First Purge: 10k (actuals last Thursday 20k)
JW 2: 7.5k (20k) - probably as always underestimated
Ocean's 8: 7k (14k) - not surprising, Mamma Mia 2 hurts this movie more than the other films
Adrift: 6.5k (15k)
 

The South-West report shows mixed holds: For Skyscraper it counted 212 admissions (last Thursday 292) and for Adrift 190 (234), so both did pretty good today, but for The First Purge only 132 (388), for JW2 139 (264) and O8 had 133 (222).
The biggest new release, Mamma Mia 2 had 1.096 admissions in the selected theaters (I expected a bit more after yesterday=the Wednesday previews were it had already over 3k) and Sicario 239, so a bit less than Skyscraper last week, fits to the 11k in the whole country.

According to Mark_G from insidekino.de both Mamma Mia 2 and HT 3 could open with ca. 600k admissions, Sicario 2 could gather 75k fans, fits to these estimates.
72% of the federal republic have school holidays. The weather is still pretty sunny but this time with a bit more rain.

[IndustriousAngel]

FINALLY a good weekend ... how many bad ones in a row did we have? Frankly I don't want to start counting ...