BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[pepsa]

59 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

FINALLY a good weekend ... how many bad ones in a row did we have? Frankly I don't want to start counting ...

Don't know, I am afraid I can't count that high  

[IndustriousAngel]

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de

 

#1: Mamma Mia 2 - 500k admissions

#2: HT3 - 275k for the weekend, >500k incl. weekdays

 

#3 around 50k (including Sicario2)

[el sid]

And some Thursday actuals from Blickpunkt:Film:

The new releases:

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 80k/ 785k US$ - as feared under the estimates which sounded just too good and the South-West report numbers were a bit suspicious; still finally a good number
Hotel Transylvania 3: 55k whole day - actually ok, you can guess what weekend numbers would be possible on a rainy weekend 
Sicario 2: 10.5k → 75k admissions OW predicted in the first trend including previews. The frst Sicario had 90k admissions OW. I don't remember the weather back then but it was October so I would say 75k now are quite ok.
 

The holdovers:

Skyscraper: 11k (actuals last Thursday 20.5k) → 55k OW predicted in the first trend
JW 2: 11k (20k) → 50k OW in the first trend
The First Purge: no actual number, but must have been under 10.5k (20k) → also 50k OW in the first trend
Adrift: also no actual Thursday number but ca. 45k OW in the first trend, a good hold counted without its previews (-21%)

Edited July 20, 2018 by el sid

[George Parr]

Second trend is up, quite a bit of movement. I'll leave out the # due to extented previews making things look so confusing:

 

Mamma Mia 2 425k

HT3 280k / 525k

JW2 65k

The First Purge 60k

Skyscraper 55k

Adrift 45k

Sicario 2 67.5k (with previews)

Ocean's 8 30k

[IndustriousAngel]

MM2 was a one-day wonder ... really more like an event it seems

[George Parr]

Yeah, it's definately dropping while HT3 is rising higher and higher. Everything else is increasing as well, here's the new trend:

 

Mamma Mia 2 415k

HT3 325k / 570k

JW2 70k (-23.5%)

The First Purge 70k (-33%)

Skyscraper 70k (-26% / -29% with previews)

Adrift 50k (-12% / -26%)

Sicario 2 72.5k

Ocean's 8 35k (-37%)

[IndustriousAngel]

Don't know about Germany but Austria has a non-outdoorsy weekend, so good for the movies. No big sports either except maybe the Tour de France and that's only in the afternoon.

[el sid]

The better looking Monday update (here in the South Saturday and Sunday were grey and often rainy):

#1 MM2 435k
#2 HT3 355k/600k since Monday
#3 Skyscraper 80k  - actually a good hold, counted without its previews last week only -15%
#4 The First Purge 77.5k

#5 Sicario 75k with previews
#6 JW2 72.5k
#7 Adrift 52.5k
 

Edited July 23, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Monday was worse than expected in Austria, too - not too much rain but far from BBQ weather, so family stuff is starting with a strong weekday

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Hotel Transylvania 3	355.667	685	519	602.691	4.599.427	-	1
2	Mamma Mia! 2	342.934	793	432	433.999	3.840.309	-	1
3	Skyscraper	79.318	517	153	219.883	2.308.264	-16	2
4	The First Purge	77.475	491	158	425.370	3.678.298	-26	3
5	Jurassic World 2	74.082	534	139	2.164.234	23.564.016	-19	7
6	Adrift	52.220	368	142	154.749	1.267.398	-8	2
7	Sicario 2	51.138	401	128	74.149	625.176	-	1
8	Ocean's 8	37.668	425	89	650.968	5.461.289	-32	5
9	Meine teuflisch gute Freundin	22.518	494	46	184.946	1.250.686	-27	4
10	Papst Franziskus	22.244	451	49	339.902	2.618.201	+4	6
11	303	21.606	123	176	26.117	217.827	-	1
12	Jim Knopf & Lukas	20.848	495	42	1.643.221	11.166.923	+73	17
13	Deadpool 2	15.412	264	58	2.187.768	19.854.354	-26	10
14	Love, Simon	11.196	342	33	197.264	1.413.881	-47	4
15	Solo	8.482	202	42	1.328.879	14.359.434	-37	9
16	How to Party with Mom	8.083	260	31	83.654	633.698	-47	3
17	Liliane Susewind	7.797	344	23	416.507	2.656.522	-33	11
18	Luis & die Aliens	7.217	350	21	239.617	1.561.970	-52	9
19	Landrauschen	7.005	54	130	8.394	60.345	-	1
20	Hereditary	4.967	138	36	109.663	955.215	-32	6

 

Thanks to attractive new releases and rainy weather, a good weekend - still far from excellent.

Next weekend: Tag and the second Ant-Man movie are the big releases - Marvel sequels tend to increase, so maybe 200k admissions for A&W? Don't know about Tag, there's not much competition in the comedy market but the same was true for HTPWM and that bellyflopped so who knows? With very little buzz, everything >50k OW has to be considered a success.

[George Parr]

Not that weather can truly be predicted more than 3-6 days in advance, but the trends for the next few weeks are truly bonkers. The "worst" day in my city is predicted to be at 28° celsius while being somewhat cloudy, every other day over the next 16 days sits at mostly sunny to sunny, ranging from 29 to 36°, with just one further exception at 27° and sunny!

 

Summer up to now was truly nice. It was often sunny but not too hot, and even the few bad days had nice temperatures, but what is happening now is really too much. It's too hot to do anything outside, and inside it tends to be even worse. Mostly sunny and temperatures in the low to mid 20s is pretty much perfect, this however is not.

 

This might lessen the impact on the box office though. If it's too hot, people might prefer to be inside, and if the weather is great all the time, you don't really need to take advantage of the good weather anymore, because you have it every single day anyway. And at worst, there won't be any huge drops, because all weekends prior to that already had great weather 😁

[Taruseth]

On 7/25/2018 at 11:40 AM, George Parr said:

Not that weather can truly be predicted more than 3-6 days in advance, but the trends for the next few weeks are truly bonkers. The "worst" day in my city is predicted to be at 28° celsius while being somewhat cloudy, every other day over the next 16 days sits at mostly sunny to sunny, ranging from 29 to 36°, with just one further exception at 27° and sunny!

 

Summer up to now was truly nice. It was often sunny but not too hot, and even the few bad days had nice temperatures, but what is happening now is really too much. It's too hot to do anything outside, and inside it tends to be even worse. Mostly sunny and temperatures in the low to mid 20s is pretty much perfect, this however is not.

 

This might lessen the impact on the box office though. If it's too hot, people might prefer to be inside, and if the weather is great all the time, you don't really need to take advantage of the good weather anymore, because you have it every single day anyway. And at worst, there won't be any huge drops, because all weekends prior to that already had great weather 😁

Too hot.

We had

34 °C on tuesday and 35 °C yesterday and today.

And Prediction for tomorrow is 35 °C and 34 °C for Saturday. So we would have 3 days above 35 °C this year, normally we have 3 days over 30 °C (and like 0.3 days above 35 °C).

 

At 8 this morning the temperature in the laboratory was already 29 °C.

Edited July 26, 2018 by Taruseth

[Brainbug]

Its so hot that many here where i live dont even want to go outside or move in general.

[el sid]

Yes, not even the (short) way into the cool and pleasant theaters as it looks at the moment. At least the Thursday estimates for the whole country aren't very existing:
The new releases:

Ant-Man and the Wasp (released in 548 theaters, the first Ant-Man movie had 140.809 OW/547.133 total admissions): 41k – not too bad but I don't know how frontloaded it will be and in general I don't trust these estimates for bigger new releases much more after several too high estimates in the last weeks (it worked much better for the holdovers)
Papillon (305): 3k
Catch Me! (254): 5k
Ein Lied in Gottes Ohr/Coexister (200): 1.5k
Hotel Artemis (175): 1k

The holdovers (almost all mediocre or worse):

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 44k (actuals last Thursday 80k)
Hotel Transylvania 3: 5k evening only (8k evening only, 55k whole day)
The First Purge: 7k (estimated 10k) – quite good
Skyscraper: 6.5k (actual number last Thursday 11k) – was underestimated last week
Adrift: 4.5k (estimated 6.5k)
Sicario 2: 4.5k (actual number last Thursday 10.5k)
JW 2: 4k (actual number last Thursday 11k) – so far not once not underestimated but lost screens this week

The South-West report shows mixed holds: Fine for Mamma Mia 2 with 925 admissions (last Thursday it were 1.096) and again for Adrift 162 (190), The First Purge even increased with 143 (132). But mediocre for Skyscraper with 88 admissions (last Thursday 212) and even worse for Sicario with 76 (239) and JW 2 with 49 (139, lost many screens which would also explain the bigger drop in the estimates above).
The biggest new release, Ant-Man and the Wasp had 825 admissions in the selected theaters (below the number of The First Purge e.g. ), Catch Me! had 174, Papillon 54 and Hotel Artemis 19.
→ So in both reports Catch Me! is in front of Papillon, The First Purge and Adrift have nice holds but Sicario 2 struggles. Ant-Man and the Wasp is in line with the (not very big) expectations.

According to Mark_G from insidekino.de we shouldn't expect big breakouts. He thinks Ant-Man and the Wasp could have around 220k admissions OW (which would at least be a pretty big increase from the last Ant-Man), Papillon and Catch Me! will probably start with under 50k moviegoers.
The holdover could lose between 30% (Mamma Mia 2) and 40-50% (the rest).
85% of the federal republic have school holidays.

Edited July 26, 2018 by el sid

[George Parr]

First trend is up, and it looks like a three-way competition for first place at this point:

 

#1 Ant Man 200k / 225k with previews

#2 HT3 200k (-44% / -67% if one counts the Mon-Wed numbers as previews)

#3 Mamma Mia 2 200k (-42% / -54% with previews)

 

Nothing else above 50k, Tag / Catch Me is on course for 37.5k so far.

[el sid]

Some Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt: Film):

The new releases:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: 50k/585k US$ (Ant-Man in 2015 had 30k OD)
Catch Me!: 6k
Papillon: 3k → 17.5k OW predicted in the first trend
Ein Lied in Gottes Ohr/Coexister: 1.6k → 15k OW predicted
Hotel Artemis: under 1k → 12.5k OW predicted

The holdovers:

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again: 45k (actuals last Thursday 80k)
Hotel Transylvania 3: 40k whole day (55k whole day) - actually nice if there weren't our sunny weekends

[el sid]

The second trend shows no change at the top and some bigger drops:

#1Ant-Man and the Wasp stable with 225k (incl. previews)
#2 HT3 200k
#3 MM2 also 200k
#4 JW2 42.5k
#5 Catch Me! 40k - a little improvement at least
#6 Skyscraper 35k, a drop of 55%
#7 The First Purge 32.5k
#8 Adrift 25k
...
Papillon 20k - also a bit up

[George Parr]

Now the 3rd trend is up, and the top movies all drop. The only movie to rise a bit is The First Purge:

 

#1 Ant-Man 205k with previews

#2 Mamma Mia 2 195k (-43% / -55% with previews)

#3 HT3 190k (-47% / -68% counting Mon-Wed as previews)

#4 Catch Me 40k

#5 JW2 37.5k (-49%)

#6 The First Purge 37.5k (-52%)

#7 Skyscraper 32.5k (-59%)

#8 Adrift 25k

[Taruseth]

2 hours ago, George Parr said:

Now the 3rd trend is up, and the top movies all drop. The only movie to rise a bit is The First Purge:

 

#1 Ant-Man 205k with previews

#2 Mamma Mia 2 195k (-43% / -55% with previews)

#3 HT3 190k (-47% / -68% counting Mon-Wed as previews)

#4 Catch Me 40k

#5 JW2 37.5k (-49%)

#6 The First Purge 37.5k (-52%)

#7 Skyscraper 32.5k (-59%)

#8 Adrift 25k

Wouldn't that mean that MM2 won the weekend and Ant-Man started in third! place (with around 180k).

 

The thunderstorm yesterday around 3 pm helped a little, the temperature in the night was like 14-15 °C outside and not 22-24 °C.

But it's predicted to get really hot again (34 °C tomorrow and on Tuesday)

Normally three days a year above 30 °C, this week Tuesday to Saturday all above 30 °C and Monday around 30 °C, with tomorrow and Tuesday that are just eight days and just seven days above 30 °C before that..

so just 15 days this year after Tuesday (if today stays below, I really hope it does)

[IndustriousAngel]

yep MM2 is the winner on the weekend proper (if estimates are correct)