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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

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I don't know if 700k would be all that realistic. The Hobbit 2 dropped from 1.075k to 620k.

 

I think if the current numbers hold, the two might be really close to each other after the third weekend (in terms of total, not weekend number). But TLJ should have a much better set of weekdays following that, and also a better 4th weekend, as that was the tail-end of the holidays in at least part of the nation for TLJ while being a regular one for TROS.

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2 hours ago, George Parr said:

I don't know if 700k would be all that realistic. The Hobbit 2 dropped from 1.075k to 620k.

 

I think if the current numbers hold, the two might be really close to each other after the third weekend (in terms of total, not weekend number). But TLJ should have a much better set of weekdays following that, and also a better 4th weekend, as that was the tail-end of the holidays in at least part of the nation for TLJ while being a regular one for TROS.

Never said it was, just that with a weekend above that I‘d say a total around TLJ is possible.

I am obviously hoping for it to end as #2 this year (don’t think anything can top Frozen 2)

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1 hour ago, Plunsch said:

The second Trend is even better for SW and F2. 

SW now at 1.15 Mio and F2 at 500k. 

Which would be the fifth best 6th weekend of all time only below Titanic (854k), HP1 (787k), Avatar (593k), TLK (549k).

Above Intouchables, Schindlers list and the first frozen.

 

 

1 hour ago, Plunsch said:

I think it will not top SW8. Yes, the second weekend looks very good for SW9, but SW8 started a week earlier and increased on weekend three. SW will drop harshly on its third weekend. 

 

http://insidekino.de/Y/DuellSWD.htm

most likely to around 600k (but that would still make a total of at least close to TLJ possible (which compared to most other countries would be a success.

 

but right now I am thing 5.5-5.6M right around TLK in admissions (but due to ATP slightly above Endgame) it will end the year as highest grossing movie.

 

And Frozen II will become the Movie with the highest admission count since bloody TFA in 2015.

And will be above 5.5M admission tomorrow and above 6M on 5th January (so final total around 6.6M?) (with a tiny, tiny (0.001%) chance at 7M)

 

 

so at the end of the year the highest grossing movie of all time will be 5th in Germany, behind Frozen II, TLK, TROS and Geheimnis fo this year and in € 2nd (unless Frozen II surprises and goes even further, lol - 7M admission would translate to roughly €57M right around Endgame).

Edited by Taruseth
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10 hours ago, LPLC said:

Insidekino predict 3,5 millions admissions by Sunday with that result, can TROS surpass SW8 in Germany, someone can make comparaisons ?

I will make one (most likely tomorrow) am on vacation right now and flying back home today.

Most likely movies are

TFA

TLJ

RO

Hobbit 1-3 

 

Lord of the Rings were out of this world as was Avatar.

Edited by Taruseth
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I didn't even notice this before, but the current trend for TROS is just 10k behind TFA for the best second weekend of all Star Wars movies.

Not that that really means much, as it comes from the nature of the current release schedule (TLJ also beat TFA's third weekend by 1k or so).

 

Won't help much against the losses over the weekdays of the next two weeks though. The movie should be roughly were Episodes II, III and VIII were after its third weekend. There's an odd amount of consistency in that. II sat at 4.43m after three weekends, III at 4.37m, VIII at 4.39m.

 

In the end, Germany might actually end up the core Star Wars market that holds the best compared to the last one, even if it finishes below all of II, III and VIII. The only market that might do better is Japan.

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2 hours ago, George Parr said:

I didn't even notice this before, but the current trend for TROS is just 10k behind TFA for the best second weekend of all Star Wars movies.

Not that that really means much, as it comes from the nature of the current release schedule (TLJ also beat TFA's third weekend by 1k or so).

 

Won't help much against the losses over the weekdays of the next two weeks though. The movie should be roughly were Episodes II, III and VIII were after its third weekend. There's an odd amount of consistency in that. II sat at 4.43m after three weekends, III at 4.37m, VIII at 4.39m.

 

In the end, Germany might actually end up the core Star Wars market that holds the best compared to the last one, even if it finishes below all of II, III and VIII. The only market that might do better is Japan.

Is there a chance for TROS to reach 6 millions admissions or surpass TLJ ?

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It's really hard to find a proper comp for TROs considering all three hobbit movies opened a week prior, which leads to the insane constellation that they all three had three weekends around 1M admissions, which won't happen for TROS as it's 3rd weekend will surely drop quite a bit from it's 2nd weekend, the other SW movies had really different holiday schedules and outside of Hobbit and Star Wars no big movie with a blockbuster opening was started around christmas this decade and even looking at the prior decade won't help considering that Avatar and the three lord of the rings (which had a first and a second weekend around 2M) are the main blockbusters that started around christmas.

 

TROS

Hobbit 2

 

adm.

total

adm.

total

Wend 1

1388k

1710k

1259k

1259k

Wdays 1

580k

2290k

412k

1671k

Wend 2

1075k

3365k

982k

2653k

Wdays 2

500k

3865k

444k

3097k

Wend 3

600k

4465k

1072k

4169k

Wdays 3

200k

4665k

348k

4517k

Wend 4

300k

4965k

619k

5136k

Wdays 4

75k

5040k

145k

5282k

Wend 5

150k

5190k

244k

5525k

Wdays 5

25k

5215k

59k

5584k

Wend 6

75k

5290k

138k

5721k

Wdays 6

10k

5300k

53k

5753k

Wend 7

50k

5350k

78k

5832k

Wdays 7

10k

5360k

21k

5853k

Wend 8

30k

5390k

52k

5904k

Wdays 8

5k

5395k

15k

5919k

Wend 9

15k

5410k

29k

5949k

Wdays 9

5k

5415k

7k

5955k

Wend 10

10k

5425k

19k

5974k

Wdays 10

5k

5430k

5k

5980k

 

 

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Monday numbers:

 

#1 SW9 1,08M (-22%/-37%) 3,37M - biggest 2nd WE of the year

#2 Frozen 2 480k (+22%) 5,5M - fifth biggest 6th WE ever, biggest 6th WE of the year

#4 Jumanji 2 400k (+32%) 1,35M - J1 299k / 1,27M

#5 Kaninchen 180k (4-day), 215k (5-day)

#6 Geheimnis 155k (+18%) 4,57M - biggest 9th WE of the year

#7 Spies in Disguise 116k (4-day),135k (5-day)

#8 Cats 81k (4-day), 105k (5-day)

Edited by Aristis
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13 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Monday numbers:

 

#1 SW9 1,08M (-22%/-37%) 3,37M - biggest 2nd WE of the year

#2 Frozen 2 480k (+22%) 5,5M - fifth biggest 6th WE ever, biggest 6th WE of the year

#4 Jumanji 2 400k (+32%) 1,35M - J1 299k / 1,27M

#5 Kaninchen 215k (5-day)

#6 Geheimnis 155k (+18%) 4,57M - biggest 9th WE of the year

#7 Spies in Disguise 135k (5-day)

#8 Cats 105k (5-day)

This is the numbers after the weekend 27th-29th Dec, right? Can F2 pass 6M after the 5th Jan weekend? 

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In Germany it today got above the admissions count of TLK, so it's #1 for the year in admissions. In the end it will have the highest admissions count since TFA in 2015. For the decade it will probably end at #11 with a small chance at beating #10 Hobbit (6.69M), then it would only need 10k more to beat Ice Age 4 (6.70M).

So it will definitely be third best animation this decade:

#1 Minions: 6.945M (€57.9M)

#2 Ice Age 4: 6.7M (€52M)

#3 Frozen 2: 6.5M (>€52M) (at 5.5M right now)

#4 Frozen 1: 4.767M (€35.8M)

#5 Despicable Me 3: 4.651M (€37.9M)

 

 

I don't wanna give up the hopes yet for Frozen II to get higher than 6.5M, maybe with a strong week now and a not so big drop it has a chance at a higher total, I am hoping for at least above Ice Age 4.

 

Jumanji could end up above 2.5M and with that as #7 of the year and highest grossing film that didn't got above 4M.

In the end I am rather certain that we will have 5 movies above 5M, one above 4M and all others below 3M.

Edited by Taruseth
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15 hours ago, Taruseth said:

In Germany it today got above the admissions count of TLK, so it's #1 for the year in admissions.[...]

Mark G. confirmed and posted roughly 5.6M admissions. I am rather certain now that it should get to 6M during the next weekend. Which should move the final target above 6.5M.

 

Furthermore, after questions in their forum he pointed out that it's the first weekend in 6! years with three movies above 400k (1st Weekend of 2014):

Der Medicus: 631k (a german movie)

Hobbit 2: 619k

Frozen: 402k

 

So a funny additional information is that a Frozen movie was part of those three movies both times.

Edited by Taruseth
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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Star Wars 9

1.092.063

787

1.388

3.383.673

39.366.662

-21

2

2

Frozen 2

485.101

674

720

5.504.736

45.474.573

+23

6

3

Jumanji 2

404.150

601

672

1.355.231

12.866.614

+33

3

4

Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl

183.655

538

341

230.212

1.986.773

-

1

5

Das perfekte Geheimnis

153.440

637

241

4.571.863

40.522.716

+18

9

6

Spies in Disguise

118.491

409

290

146.593

1.128.868

-

1

7

Cats

82.631

502

165

107.943

958.633

-

1

8

Der kleine Rabe Socke 3

43.016

565

76

167.804

1.098.819

+10

3

9

Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein

33.886

277

122

44.967

300.680

-

1

10

Last Christmas

30.559

354

86

847.103

6.989.071

-59

7

11

The Peanut Butter Falcon

17.108

82

209

50.459

375.392

+36

2

12

Le Mystère Henri Pick

16.535

95

174

24.916

179.964

-

1

13

Hustlers

16.179

129

125

270.270

2.323.144

-15

5

14

Joker

15.309

199

77

4.044.405

37.449.821

+9

12

15

Black Christmas

10.939

249

44

73.491

635.738

-32

3

16

Mucize 2

9.087

57

159

74.911

664.036

+1

4

17

The Farewell

8.650

80

108

29.017

215.842

+1

2

18

Pavarotti

8.150

102

80

13.310

117.390

-

1

19

Parasite

7.048

82

86

380.593

3.305.087

+19

11

20

7500

6.952

74

94

22.492

141.923

-

1

An extremely satisfying weekend, good drops and at least one good opener with Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl which should have some staying power. (Cats also came in a bit above my low expectations …). Drops (resp. increases) were excellent; Star Wars 9 will not miss 5mil total, that at least is locked. Frozen 2 is now the #1 2019 release and will stay so.

Next weekend: Still a holiday weekend but steeper drops will happen; but the openers don't look strong - the latest Charlie's Angels comes with nearly no buzz; Knives Out has got good reviews and some starpower but I doubt the wide appeal, too. Even with heftier drops, this week's Top3 should stay in lead.

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2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

... and a Happy New Year and many (hopefully better) movies to everyone here! There was no 9/10 (or even 10/10) for me in 2019, and only a few 8/10ers ... not a good vintage.

 

Have you seen the following?

 

The Lighthouse

Parasite

Shadow (2018 movie, but released in the west in 2019)

 

All 10/10 movies for me.

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SW vs SW:

WE

SW7

SW8

SW9

1st

2.139

 

2.139

1.627

 

1.627

1.388

 

1.710

2nd

1.161

-46%

4.431

721

-56%

2.838

1.092

-21%

3.384

3rd

848

-27%

6.566

849

18%

4.393

 

 

 

4th

583

-31%

7.630

467

-45%

5.211

 

 

 

5th

324

-44%

8.094

202

-57%

5.503

 

 

 

6th

204

-37%

8.380

110

-46%

5.663

 

 

 

7th

145

-29%

8.582

70

-36%

5.761

 

 

 

8th

91

-37%

8.719

42

-40%

5.822

 

 

 

9th

66

-27%

8.819

24

-43%

5.857

 

 

 

10th

39

-41%

8.874

11

-54%

5.877

 

 

 
     

9,060M

   

5,906M

   

5,500M

 

F1 vs F2:

WE

Frozen1

Frozen2

1st

572

 

654

1.430

 

1.635

2nd

577

1%

1.355

941

-34%

2.822

3rd

476

-18%

1.952

708

-25%

3.704

4th

433

-9%

2.499

468

-34%

4.307

5th

540

25%

3.242

393

-16%

4.808

6th

402

-26%

3.838

485

23%

5.505

7th

158

-61%

4.091

 

 

 

8th

107

-32%

4.217

 

 

 

9th

81

-24%

4.311

 

 

 

10th

89

10%

4.412

 

 

 
     

4.767M

   

6,500M

 

And again more detailed as Spoiler:

Spoiler
 

Frozen1

Frozen2

WE

Weekend

Mid-

week

Week

Weekend

Mid-

week

Week

1st

572

 

654

124

696

 

1.430

 

1.635

246

1.676

 

2nd

577

1%

1.355

121

698

0%

941

-34%

2.822

174

1.115

-33%

3rd

476

-18%

1.952

114

590

-15%

708

-25%

3.704

135

843

-24%

4th

433

-9%

2.499

203

636

8%

468

-34%

4.307

108

576

-32%

5th

540

25%

3.242

194

734

15%

393

-16%

4.808

212

605

5%

6th

402

-26%

3.838

95

497

-32%

485

23%

5.505

 

 

 

7th

158

-61%

4.091

19

177

-64%

 

 

 

 

 

 

8th

107

-32%

4.217

13

120

-32%

 

 

 

 

 

 

9th

81

-24%

4.311

12

93

-23%

 

 

 

 

 

 

10th

89

10%

4.412

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

0

4.767M

   

0

 

0

6,500M

   

0

 

The Minions comparison still looks good:

WE

Minions

Frozen2

1st

935

 

935

1.430

 

1.635

2nd

1.040

11%

2.394

941

-34%

2.822

3rd

760

-27%

3.598

708

-25%

3.704

4th

537

-29%

4.419

468

-34%

4.307

5th

366

-32%

5.147

393

-16%

4.808

6th

195

-47%

5.521

485

23%

5.505

7th

242

24%

5.893

 

 

 

8th

111

-54%

6.160

 

 

 

9th

81

-27%

6.323

 

 

 

10th

125

54%

6.497

 

 

 
     

6.946M

   

6,500M

 

Frozen will lead after next WE again. After that Minions has its advantage of bigger weekdays again and F2 must get some good WE holds...

 

Und ich wünsche auch allen ein frohes neues Jahr, happy new year to everyone :)

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