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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

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The weekdays for Frozen II were around 180k, so 5685k total as of New Years Day (source: Mark G on Insidekino.de forums), so a 315k weekend would lead to 6M by Sunday (5th Jan), but I am hoping for a higher weekend.

Let's see how close this gets to 7M, yesterday my prediction was 6.65M for the total, still thinking that is where it's most likely heading but maybe it can hold better.

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1st trend by insidekino.de:
TROS: 600k (4.36M total)

Frozen II: 340k (total 6.025M)

Jumanji TNL: 300k (1.81M)

Knives Out: 190k

Kaninchen: 130k (440k)

Geheimnis: 120k (4765k)

Spione Undercover: 120k (320k)

 

3 Engel: 70k

Edited by Taruseth
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Thursday numbers:

 

#1 SW9 145k (-27%) €1,6M /$1,78M

#2 F2 80k (-0%) €630k / $700k

#3 J2 70k (-12%) €650k / $725kk

#4 Knives Out 40k // €355k / $395k

#5 Geheimnis 30k (probably around -0%) €255k / $285k

#6 Kaninchen ~30k (~-12%)

 

The Thursday drops are awesome - much better than the projected WE numbers. I hope InsideKino is pessimistic.

Edited by Aristis
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2nd Trend:

 

#1 SW9 625k (-43%) 4,38M

#2 F2 350k (-28%) 6,035M *it needs only 10k more the have the 10th biggest 7th WE ever...

#3 J2 320k (-21%) 1,83M

#4 Knives Out 220k

#5 Kaninchen 145k (-21%/-37% i.P.)

#6 Geheimnis 140k (-8%)

#7 Spies 120k (+2%/-18% i.P.)

 

SW9 crossed 4M admissions yesterday as the 6th movie of the year.

Edited by Aristis
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2nd trend by insidekino.de:

TROS: 625k (-43%)*

Frozen II: 350k (-28%)**

Jumanji - TNL: 320k (-21%)

KO: 220k

Kaninchen: 145k (-21% / -37%)

Geheimnis: 140k (-8.5%)***

Spies Undercover: 120k (+1% / -18%)

Charlie's Angels: 80k

Cats: 37.5k (-55% / -65%)

Igel: 35k (+3% / -22%)

Rabe Socke: 27.5k (-36%)

Judy: 27.5k

 

*would only be the 2nd biggest third weekend for a 2019 movie (behind Frozen 2 with 708k).

**8k more to beat Aladdin for 10th biggest seventh weekend of all time, but obviously the biggest seventh weekend for a 2019 movie, right now that would be Geheimnis with 143k.

If those weekend are counted towards 2020 than we probably already have the biggest thirds and seventh weekend of the year. Baring a surprise of a Germany movie, I'd say that most of the top weekends this year theoretically should belong to TROS and Frozen 2. But they lucky for the movies this year will all be counted towards last year. 

*** easily the biggest tenth weekend of the year, more than two and a half times the previous one (TLK with 54k); to be the 10th biggest tenth weekend of the year it would need to beat Schindler's List (183,801 admissions on that weekend) , which won't happen.

 

Another weekend with 3 movies above 300k, the third in a row, before that I think the last weekend like that was in Weekend 52 - 2017 (28th-31st December) the 1st weekend of 2018 barely missed #3 had 298k admissions. Btw that weekend looked kinda similar to this, in first place was TLJ (849k) and in third Jumanji (314k), but between them was a German Movie - Dieses bescheuerte Herz with 318k.

Edited by Taruseth
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3rd trend by insidekino.de:

TROS: 600k (-45%)* (down 25k)

Frozen II: 375k (-23%)** (up 25k) (total around 6.06M)

Jumanji - TNL: 330k (-18%) (up 10k)***

KO: 250k (up 30k! from the last trend)****

Kaninchen: 160k (-13% / -30%) (up 15k)

Geheimnis: 155k (+1%!!!!!!)*+* (up 15k)

Spies Undercover: 140k (+18% / -4.5%) (up 20k)*+**

Charlie's Angels: 80k

Cats: 40k (-52% / -63%) (up 2.5k)

Igel: 40k (+18% / -11%) (up 5k)

Rabe Socke: 37.5k (-13%) (up 10k)

Judy: 32.5k (up 5k)

 

*drop is too harsh, 625k would have been better, especially if actuals would have come in above like last week, a 40% drop would be significantly nicer than a 45% one (I know the difference isn't big, but next two weekends most likely will have similar drops and after that with 3*40% drops the weekend would be 236k and 3*45% drops it would be 182k (so quite a difference).

**This would be 10th best 7th weekend (beating Aladdin (357,222) and only 1k behind Harry Potter 2 (376,056) so it has a solid chance at 9th best 7th weekend of all time.

It should now definitely get past 6.5M (and 6.65M is rather likely as total, but it most likely won't get much further (might even fall short by like 10-20k).

*** Damn, this really can end up above Pets 2 as highest movie outside of the Disney four-punch (Frozen, TLK, TROS, Endgame), Geheimnis and Joker (so the 4+M movies)

****Nice opening (maybe with good legs and good WOM this could be the first Millionaire of the year (don't count on it) don't really know of a comp.

*+*I stay with my point from before the weekend this will end up above Endgame.

*+**Maybe this movie in the end miraculously will get above 1M like all other Blue Sky movies 

Edited by Taruseth
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The Monday update looks like that:

#1 SW9 610k/4.37M
#2 Frozen2 355k/6.04M 
#3 Jumanji2 335k/1.84M
#4 Knives Out 250k (229k without previews)
#5 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 160k/470k
#6 Das perfekte Geheimnis 150k/4.795M
#7 Spies in Disguise 130k/330k
#8 Charlie's Angels 80k (60k without previews)
...

Judy 32.5k (24k)
Thomas und seine Freunde 22.5k (18k)

Edited by el sid
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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Star Wars 9

610.231

768

795

4.371.861

50.634.243

-44

3

2

Frozen 2

356.485

614

581

6.041.858

49.669.540

-27

7

3

Jumanji 2

338.362

596

568

1.850.687

17.429.482

-16

4

4

Knives Out

229.590

399

575

248.682

2.253.682

-

1

5

Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl

161.254

576

280

474.452

4.050.863

-12

2

6

Das perfekte Geheimnis

152.560

620

246

4.799.786

42.478.872

-1

10

7

Spies in Disguise

129.741

421

308

318.512

2.426.637

+9

2

8

Charlie's Angels

61.052

217

281

80.799

641.053

-

1

9

Cats

40.744

504

81

186.107

1.615.239

-51

2

10

Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein

38.776

309

125

101.116

664.267

+14

2

11

Der kleine Rabe Socke 3

37.575

550

68

224.735

1.466.463

-13

4

12

Judy

24.431

113

216

34.030

291.875

-

1

13

Servant

22.825

110

208

22.825

243.323

-

1

14

Thomas & Friends

18.016

427

42

22.028

150.174

-

1

15

The Peanut Butter Falcon

15.152

87

174

74.046

567.121

-11

3

16

Joker

14.271

165

86

4.065.381

37.644.810

-7

13

17

Le Mystère Henri Pick

13.093

97

135

45.698

346.494

-21

2

18

Hustlers

10.287

92

112

285.886

2.459.810

-36

6

19

Parasite

8.092

109

74

392.682

3.410.040

+15

12

20

Miles Davis: Birth of the Cool

7.234

59

123

7.960

65.767

-

1

A good weekend, with Knives Out opening higher than expected - might well clear 1mil total given the target demo. Even Charlie's Angels was no complete flop given the only semi-wide release. Star Wars 9 had an ok hold; while it will probably become the lowest entry in the series (by admissions) it's still a success. And Family stuff in general had excellent holds during this last holiday weekend.

Next weekend: For some reason. distributors left this slot pretty empty. Domestic girl movie Vier zauberhafte Schwestern will probably be the biggest opener but #5 on next week's chart would already be a big success. For horror fans there's The Grudge and Underwater but the double opening will probably dilute the possible PTA. And as an Austrian, I have to mention Little Joe, the latest movie by Jessica Hausner, but that's strictly arthouse fare. So, the most interesting questions next weekend: What drop can SW9 manage? And can Jumanji2 (which is showing excellent legs) beat Frozen2 for #2?

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1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

[...]

Star Wars 9 had an ok hold; while it will probably become the lowest entry in the series (by admissions) it's still a success. And Family stuff in general had excellent holds during this last holiday weekend.

[...] What drop can SW9 manage? And can Jumanji2 (which is showing excellent legs) beat Frozen2 for #2?

That would be based on what you consider the series (or if you count only BRD or add DDR numbers too), if you only mean the sequel trilogy then you would be correct. But if you'd look at BRD numbers only and all 9 movies (so all Episodes) it would only be the third lowest, ESB and ROTJ had only 5.05M admissions (within 2k of each other incl. their 1997 reissue). And it falling short of AOC and ROTS has been what was predicted since OD. As they ended with 5.7M and 5.6M. But I'd still say TROS should get too around 5.5M.

I'd say Jumanji has a solid shot as it's probably less Christmas heavy compared to Frozen (I know not Christmas themed but still has a kinda christmasy vibe to it).

 

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What's kind of funny is how TROS and ROTS compare at this specific point in time:

 

ROTS: 612k 3rd weekend, 4.368m total

TROS: 610k 3rd weekend, 4.372m total

 

Just 2k apart on the weekend, and less than 4k in total. What are the odds of that?

ROTS should move ahead over the next few weeks though.

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SW vs SW:

Spoiler

WE

SW7

SW8

SW9

1st

2.139

 

2.139

1.627

 

1.627

1.388

 

1.710

2nd

1.161

-46%

4.431

721

-56%

2.838

1.092

-21%

3.384

3rd

848

-27%

6.566

849

18%

4.393

610

-44%

4.372

4th

583

-31%

7.630

467

-45%

5.211

     

5th

324

-44%

8.094

202

-57%

5.503

     

6th

204

-37%

8.380

110

-46%

5.663

     

7th

145

-29%

8.582

70

-36%

5.761

     

8th

91

-37%

8.719

42

-40%

5.822

     

9th

66

-27%

8.819

24

-43%

5.857

     

10th

39

-41%

8.874

11

-54%

5.877

     
     

9,060M

   

5,906M

   

5,500M

 

Frozen vs Frozen:

Spoiler
 

Frozen1

Frozen2

WE

Weekend

Mid-week

Week

Weekend

Mid-week

Week

1st

572

 

654

124

696

 

1.430

 

1.635

246

1.676

 

2nd

577

1%

1.355

121

698

0%

941

-34%

2.822

174

1.115

-33%

3rd

476

-18%

1.952

114

590

-15%

708

-25%

3.704

135

843

-24%

4th

433

-9%

2.499

203

636

8%

468

-34%

4.307

108

576

-32%

5th

540

25%

3.242

194

734

15%

393

-16%

4.808

212

605

5%

6th

402

-26%

3.838

95

497

-32%

485

23%

5.505

181

666

10%

7th

158

-61%

4.091

19

177

-64%

356

-27%

6.042

 

 

 

8th

107

-32%

4.217

13

120

-32%

 

 

 

 

 

 

9th

81

-24%

4.311

12

93

-23%

 

 

 

 

 

 

10th

89

10%

4.412

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

0

4.767M

   

0

 

0

6,750M

   

0

 

F2 missed the 10th biggest 7th WE by only 1k... But it had the 7th biggest 6th week after the 5th biggest 6th WE.

 

WE

Minions

Frozen2

1st

935

 

935

1.430

 

1.635

2nd

1.040

11%

2.394

941

-34%

2.822

3rd

760

-27%

3.598

708

-25%

3.704

4th

537

-29%

4.419

468

-34%

4.307

5th

366

-32%

5.147

393

-16%

4.808

6th

195

-47%

5.521

485

23%

5.505

7th

242

24%

5.893

356

-27%

6.042

8th

111

-54%

6.160

     

9th

81

-27%

6.323

 

 

 

10th

125

54%

6.497

 

 

 
     

6.946M

   

6,750M

 

I hope F2 gets close to 6,3M next WE and should therefore lead the comparison for at least two more weeks.

 

And the new one, Jumanji vs Jumanji:

Spoiler

WE

Jumanji 1

Jumanji 2

1st

198

 

198

383

 

401

2nd

314

59%

681

303

-21%

791

3rd

299

-5%

1.273

404

33%

1.355

4th

168

-44%

1.484

338

-16%

1.851

5th

113

-33%

1.623

     

6th

88

-22%

1.729

     

7th

63

-28%

1.809

     

8th

49

-22%

1.875

     
     

2,009M

   

2,500M

 

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Thursday numbers:

Holidays are over so there are huge drops, for the WE they are much lower:

 

#1 SW9 30k (-79%)

#2 Knives Out 20k (-50%)

#3 Jumanji2 12,5k (-82%)

#4 Kaninchen 10,6k (?)

#5 Frozen2 9,5k (-88%)

#6 Geheimnis 7,5k (-75%)

Edited by Aristis
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