Jump to content
IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Sonic wins weekend

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de

 

#1: BadBoys3 - 450k (incl previews) - excellent!

#2: 1917 - 180k (incl previews) - also better than I expected, fine number!

#3: StarWars9 - 135k (-47%)

#4: KnivesOut - 120k (-35%)

#5: Lindenberg! - 130k (incl. previews)

 

I'd expect SW9 to drop harder than 50% in the end, but the good openers are making up for that, fine weekend!

I expected Bad Boys to open below 200k. lol (I know that insidekino predicted 400k, but I kinda thought it was dead), but it should get past 1M admissions pretty easily and end above 1.25M

 

I don't really know, but you are probably right, so 4.935-4.945M after the weekend... ->

Thinking that SW9 and Geheimnis will all end around endgame, so we probably will have 3 movies between 5.1M and 5.2M.

Knives would be at 665k after a 120k weekend. Thinking it will hit 1M but probably not get much further.

So end of the year list would look like this:

Frozen 2: 6.65M

TLK: 5.55M

TROS: 5.15M

Geheimnis: 5.15M

Endgame: 5.13M

Joker: 4.1M

Pets 2.48M

Jumanji: 2.48M

Edited by Taruseth
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3rd Trend:

Most movies increase!

 

#1 BB3 475k

#2 1917 180k

#3 Lindenberg 150k

#4 SW9 140k (-45%)

#5 Knives Out 140k (-25%)

#6 Frozen2 110k (-27%)

#7 Jumanji2 110k (-36%)

#8 Zauberhafte Schwestern 75k (-17%/-32% i.P.)

#9 Geheimnis 60k (-29%)

#10 Rosa Kaninchen 60k (-35%)

#11 Spies in disguise 55k (-11%)

#12 Weathering with you 50k

Edited by Aristis
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

very nice, cool weekend with 7 releases >100k, that's not shabby! While the overall outlook for 2020 is still pessimistic, at least we're off to a good start!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Aristis said:

3rd Trend:

Most movies increase!

 

#1 BB3 475k

#2 1917 180k

#3 Lindenberg 150k

#4 SW9 140k (-45%)

#5 Knives Out 140k (-25%)

#6 Frozen2 110k (-27%)

#7 Jumanji2 110k (-36%)

#8 Zauberhafte Schwestern 75k (-17%/-32% i.P.)

#9 Geheimnis 60k (-29%)

#10 Rosa Kaninchen 60k (-35%)

#11 Spies in disguise 55k (-11%)

#12 Weathering with you 50k

BB3 should considering all most all movies end up with a 3x get above 1.3M (a 3x of weekend WO Previews).

1917's trend hasn't changed.

Lindenberg does okay, it could have good legs.

SW9 is slightly above the first trend, that would be at least something. Hoping for 5.2M in the end.

 

Knives Out should leg it past 1M in the end, but that will only happen barely.

Frozen is 30k above the 2nd trend, should be around 6.4M after the weekend and considering it dropped so little despite 3 new releases it should surely get to 6.65M, hopefully even close 6.7M. This will be it's ninth weekend above 100k (only movie with more this year is Geheimnis which had 10.)*

Jumanji with a good drop too (higher than KO and FII, but that is okay after the holds it had before). Still should be around 2.22M after the weekend and so a final around Pets 2 still looks likely.

 

Geheimnis should pass 5M today. And I'd say a total barely above Endgame is still doable, meaning endgame would drop to #5 (below Frozen, TLK, TROS and Geheimnis).

Kaninchen around 700k after the weekend. 

Spies in Disguise with an amazing drop (probably thanks to now kids movies opening), probably around 475k after the weekend, total of 600k? Which would still be the lowest by far for an animated movie by Blu Sky.

 

 

And twelve movies above 50k, that's nice, seven above 100k is nice too. Overall I'd say January was of to a better start than I thought (especially considering SW9 performing below TLJ and not slightly above as I hoped).

 

Most weekends above 100k:

2019: Geheimnis 10; Frozen II 9; TLK 8; Green Book 7;

2018: Fantastic Beast II 8, BR 8 (5+3 in-between 2 weekends below); Junge...frische Life 7;

2017: Despicable Me III 7; TLJ & FJG III 6; La La Land 6 (5+1 in-between 2 weekends) - didn't really took a look probably a whole lot more of 6 week movies;

2016: Zoomania: 8; Hartmann: 8; (6+2); Pets 2: 7 (6+1) and Revenant, Finding dory, Ice Age 5 and Me Before You had 6 weekends.

So overall 3 movies with nice legs last year, I don't think this year has that strength.

outside of a german surprise we are in for a grim year, because:

What big franchise opens a movie outside of James Bond:

If one looks at the top franchises (above 20M) of the past 21 years (1999-2019) or so:

(above 10M, above 9M, above 6M, above 5M, above 3M)

HP: 69.948M (10 movies - 1, 2, 7, 8, 10)

LotR/Hobbit: 51.811M (6 movies - 3, 3, 6, 6, 6)

SW: 45.808M (8 movies - 0, 1, 2, 6, 7 - one at 1.364M)

Marvel: 37.983M (21 movies - 0, 0, 0, 1, 2 - 4 more above 2M)***

007: 35,131M (6 movies - 0, 0, 2, 4, 6)

Ice Age: 34.377M (5 movies - 0, 0, 4, 4, 4 - one at 2.925M)

PotC: 26.559M (5 movies - 0, 0, 3, 3, 4 - one at 2.694M)

FJG: 21.282M (3 movies - 0, 0, 3, 3, 3)

F&F: 20.620M (9 movies - 0, 0, 0, 0, 2)**

 

Despicable Me: 17.788M (4 movies - 0, 0, 1, 1, 3 - one at 2.522M)

Madagascar: 16.751M (3 movies - 0, 0, 2, 2, 3)*

 

*Had this in and then realised this only had 3 movies.

**Two outliners with average of 1.808M (Marvel) & 2.291M (F&F). Only other franchise below a 5M average is Despicable Me at 4.447M.

Might try to look for all franchises above 10M, though that theoretically would include Avatar (1 movie) and above 10M would also be the movie Schuh des Manitus. And probably a lot of other movie franchises. Even the likes of Frozen would qualify (around 11.15M right now - so average of 5.58M)

 

 

 

Edited by Taruseth
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IHi everyone, someone know how much admissions Avatar and Titanic made without her re-release (I know how much they did with re-release)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

very nice, cool weekend with 7 releases >100k, that's not shabby! While the overall outlook for 2020 is still pessimistic, at least we're off to a good start!



Tbh, January is a fair bet in Germany after christmas trailering. That's why it's even more frustrating, that they wasted that Jan 9th weekend. 

 

And that's only the start of questionable scheduling issues to come. 

On Feb 20th, we have "The Call of The Wild" vs. "Lassie" and "Fantasy Island" vs. "The Boy 2". 
On March 26th we have Mulan, "Trolls 2"and "Peter Rabbit 2" opening against each other.

Mark G, of Insidekino wrote another great blog after finishing his visit at the "Münchener Filmwoche", the german Cinema Con.

http://www.blog.insidekino.de/?p=8628

 

Edited by Poseidon
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The late but nice Monday update:

#1 Bad Boys for Life 480k
#2 1917 185k (170k without previews)
#3 Lindenberg! 160k (140k)
#4 SW9 140k/4.970M
#5 Knives Out 137.5k/680k
#6 Frozen II  110k/6.400M 
#7 Jumanji 2 110k/2.220M
#8 Vier zauberhafte Schwestern 80k/200k
#9 Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl 62.5k/715k
#10 Das perfekte Geheimnis 60k/5.000M
#11 Weathering with You 60k (edit: Mark_G writes that it had only showtimes on Thursday and Sunday so no Wednesday previews and it is #10 or #11 of the chart; Your Name opened similar with 64.830 admissions two years ago).
#12 Spies in Disguise 55k/475k

Edited by el sid
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Bad Boys 3

439.289

584

752

481.653

4.605.772

-

1

2

1917

171.001

416

411

192.079

1.675.402

-

1

3

Lindenberg!

141.701

475

298

167.283

1.574.309

-

1

4

Star Wars 9

140.441

562

250

4.966.534

57.275.784

-45

5

5

Knives Out

138.157

606

228

682.007

6.154.124

-26

3

6

Jumanji 2

110.500

602

184

2.221.459

20.771.494

-35

6

7

Frozen 2

108.891

665

164

6.399.577

52.397.806

-27

9

8

Vier zauberhafte Schwestern

81.433

485

168

201.434

1.372.076

-9

2

9

Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl

62.735

544

115

714.123

6.023.470

-32

4

10

Tenki No Ko

61.391

217

283

61.391

731.688

-

1

11

Das perfekte Geheimnis

60.881

529

115

5.003.638

44.329.282

-29

12

12

Spies in Dusguise

55.526

439

126

473.089

3.511.559

-10

4

13

The Grudge

28.162

233

121

90.205

799.477

-46

2

14

Psy 3

24.405

108

226

24.405

280.600

-

1

15

Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein

22.145

383

58

155.667

1.011.114

+6

4

16

Der kleine Rabe Socke 3

16.909

478

35

271.429

1.755.577

-17

6

17

Judy

12.671

134

95

87.615

739.646

-34

3

18

Charlie's Angels

10.630

208

51

138.943

1.131.735

-62

3

19

It Must be Heaven

10.508

73

144

12.520

95.850

-

1

20

Queen & Slim

10.489

104

101

49.306

404.486

-48

2

Three strong openers and fine holds especially for domestic productions - nice weekend! I was surprised how big Bad Boys 3 became, I had thought the predecessors were too long ago. 1917 should have good legs with Oscars buzz and Lindenberg! is the kind of movie which usually has great legs, too - so expect all three of them to stay in the charts for quite a while.

Next weekend: Til Schweiger's Die Hochzeit is a strong contender for #1 but with BB3 having obviously good WOM, that cake isn't eaten yet. Also opening: Jojo Rabbit.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de have BB3 in lead with 300k admissions (-32%); Die Hochzeit on #2 with 200k (a little disappointing) and 1917 on #3 with 165k admissions (that would be a <%5 drop, wow)

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First weekend estimates from insidekino.de have BB3 in lead with 300k admissions (-32%); Die Hochzeit on #2 with 200k (a little disappointing) and 1917 on #3 with 165k admissions (that would be a <%5 drop, wow)

TROS, Frozen II and Jumanji TNL all with 80k, movies, that are in weekend 6, 10 and 7.

Totals according to insidekino.de:

TROS: 5080k (so got above 5M on Wednesday)

Frozen II: 6495k

J - TNL: 2320k

So they probably will end with something like 5.2M, 6.7M and 2.5M

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As I'm a bit later I already put in the WE projection in Italics:

 

SW:

Spoiler

WE

SW7

SW8

SW9

1st

2.139

 

2.139

1.627

 

1.627

1.388

 

1.710

2nd

1.161

-46%

4.431

721

-56%

2.838

1.092

-21%

3.384

3rd

848

-27%

6.566

849

18%

4.393

610

-44%

4.372

4th

583

-31%

7.630

467

-45%

5.211

253

-58%

4.763

5th

324

-44%

8.094

202

-57%

5.503

140

-45%

4.967

6th

204

-37%

8.380

110

-46%

5.663

80

-43%

5.080

7th

145

-29%

8.582

70

-36%

5.761

 

 

 

 

 

8th

91

-37%

8.719

42

-40%

5.822

 

 

 

 

 

9th

66

-27%

8.819

24

-43%

5.857

 

 

 

 

 

10th

39

-41%

8.874

11

-54%

5.877

 

 

 

 

 
     

9,060M

   

5,906M

   

5,250M

 

Frozen:

Spoiler

WE

Minions

Frozen2

1st

935

 

935

1.430

 

1.635

2nd

1.040

11%

2.394

941

-34%

2.822

3rd

760

-27%

3.598

708

-25%

3.704

4th

537

-29%

4.419

468

-34%

4.307

5th

366

-32%

5.147

393

-16%

4.808

6th

195

-47%

5.521

485

23%

5.505

7th

242

24%

5.893

356

-27%

6.042

8th

111

-54%

6.160

150

-58%

6.267

9th

81

-27%

6.323

109

-27%

6.400

10th

125

54%

6.497

80

-27%

6.495

     

6.946M

   

6,700M

They will still be very close after this WE...

 

 

Frozen1

Frozen2

WE

Weekend

Mid-week

Week

Weekend

Mid-week

Week

1st

572

 

654

124

696

 

1.430

 

1.635

246

1.676

 

2nd

577

1%

1.355

121

698

0%

941

-34%

2.822

174

1.115

-33%

3rd

476

-18%

1.952

114

590

-15%

708

-25%

3.704

135

843

-24%

4th

433

-9%

2.499

203

636

8%

468

-34%

4.307

108

576

-32%

5th

540

25%

3.242

194

734

15%

393

-16%

4.808

212

605

5%

6th

402

-26%

3.838

95

497

-32%

485

23%

5.505

181

666

10%

7th

158

-61%

4.091

19

177

-64%

356

-27%

6.042

75

431

-35%

8th

107

-32%

4.217

13

120

-32%

150

-58%

6.267

24

174

-60%

9th

81

-24%

4.311

12

93

-23%

109

-27%

6.400

15

124

-29%

10th

89

10%

4.412

     

80

-27%

6.495

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

0

4.767M

   

0

 

0

6,700M

   

0

Who would have thought F2 could be this close to the leggy first so late in the run...

 

Jumanji:

Spoiler

WE

Jumanji 1

Jumanji 2

1st

198

 

198

383

 

401

2nd

314

59%

681

303

-21%

791

3rd

299

-5%

1.273

404

33%

1.355

4th

168

-44%

1.484

338

-16%

1.851

5th

113

-33%

1.623

171

-49%

2.086

6th

88

-22%

1.729

111

-35%

2.221

7th

63

-28%

1.809

80

-28%

2.320

8th

49

-22%

1.875

 

 

 

 

 
     

2,009M

   

2,500M

 

Edited by Aristis
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Monday numbers:

 

#1 BB3 305k (-31%/-37%) 885k

#2 Hochzeit 165k (4-day), 205k (i.P.)

#3 1917 140k (-18%/-27%) 400k

#4 Lindenberg 105k (-26%/-37%) 325k

#5 Knives Out 95k (-31%) 810k

#6 SW9 80k (-43%) 5,085M

#7 Frozen2 80k (-27%) 6,495M

#8 Jumanji2 75k (-32%) 2,310M

...

Jojo Rabbit 70k

 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Bad Boys 3

307.653

610

504

888.215

8.404.742

-30

2

2

Die Hochzeit

166.207

580

287

209.200

1.834.644

-

1

3

1917

142.421

430

331

399.876

3.481.832

-17

2

4

Lindenberg!

106.811

520

205

325.827

3.043.609

-25

2

5

Knives Out

95.513

591

162

810.183

7.281.551

-31

4

6

Star Wars 9

82.111

448

183

5.086.123

58.577.313

-42

6

7

Frozen 2

79.161

692

114

6.494.114

53.094.472

-27

10

8

Jumanji 2

74.851

520

144

2.312.954

21.587.793

-32

7

9

Die Wolf-Gäng

60.614

396

153

61.437

427.907

-

1

10

Vier zauberhafte Schwestern

56.646

535

106

266.607

1.808.549

-30

3

11

Das geheime Leben der Bäume

55.434

275

202

62.873

531.775

-

1

12

Jojo Rabbit

49.778

176

283

70.658

552.676

-

1

13

Als Hitler das rosa Kaninchen stahl

43.038

493

87

781.788

6.538.049

-31

5

14

Das perfekte Geheimnis

42.107

473

89

5.057.974

44.843.984

-31

13

15

Spies in Disguise

40.225

458

88

518.159

3.818.800

-28

5

16

Latte Igel und der magische Wasserstein

18.012

375

48

175.490

1.136.918

-19

5

17

The Grudge

15.193

232

65

110.562

974.723

-46

3

18

Les Misérables

13.493

84

161

22.059

165.505

-

1

19

Der kleine Rabe Socke 3

12.933

385

34

285.434

1.841.966

-24

7

20

Tenki no Ko

11.352

223

51

72.752

861.227

-82

2

Bad Boys 3 had a better drop than expected while wider opener Die Hochzeit stayed behind expectations, so overall an ok wekend. 1917 seems to have good WOM but it got more theaters, too - let's see how it keeps up the following weekends.

Next weekend: Dolittle will be the big opener but it's questionable if it can get to #1. With little new competition, most releases should see healthy drops.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So, with that weekend SW9 has actually passed Endgame for no. 1 of the year in terms of currency. And it might just have enough steam left to top the 60m mark.

 

Kind of weird when a movie is ahead by 1.5m admissions but ends up with less money made. The third and fifth (provided Das perfekte Geheimnis makes it past Endgame, which it should) ranked movie ending up no. 1 and 2 in terms of currency makes for a weird looking chart. Then again, last year the 4th placed movie in admissions ended up second in terms of currency as well.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At least Dolittle isn't dumped here in Germany. I saw surprisingly many TV-spots for it, it has 8 or 9 showtimes each day in e.g. the mathäser (in medium-sized or even big cinema halls) and gets 570 copies (which is a big start). The reservations are not overwhelming so far but this is normal for this type of film.
It's a bit unclever that a film about Heinzelmännchen/brownies starts on the same weekend but still Mark_G sees at the moment 800k total admissions for Dolittle.

Edited by el sid

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thursday number:

 

#1 BB3 23k (-34%) €210k / $230k

#2 1917 15k (-21%) €125k / $138k

#3 Hochzeit 13k (-19%) €110k / $120k - I would have hoped for a worse hold... :ph34r:

#4 Dolittle 12,5k (-) $125k / $138k

#5 Little Women 10k (-) €90k / $100k

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The first trend:

#1 or 2 Bad Boys for Life (will have 1M admissions including today) with 200k and
              Dolittle with 220k (including previews)
#3 Die Hochzeit 135k
#4 1917 105k
#5 Die Heinzels - Rückkehr der Heinzelmännchen 85k
...
Countdown 55k
Kartoffelsalat 3 (Mark_G joked that there wasn't any demand for a sequel so we just got part three ;)) 7.5k

Edited by el sid
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.