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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

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4 minutes ago, IceFire9yt said:

IW staying flat from last Thursday seems ridiculously good.  Are there mitigating factors around that number?

Unfortunately yes, school holidays. And probably the weather wasn't very good in most states today.

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Just now, pepsa said:

Doesn't that make Solo's OD even worse?

Let's say it can be lucky that this state has holidays.

I doubt that Solo has that many walk ups but maybe it looks better tomorrow with the actuals. OTOH the first actual numbers from France are surprisingly bad too.

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If this holds Solo is litteraly done for. You can't go -70% in France (7.5% of total OS boxoffice of RO) -60% in Germany (9% of total boxoffice) -70-75% in China (13.4% of TOT) and -50% UK (15.5% of TOT). Not speaking about it's legs. Cause solo had decent legs in China. (2.25 multi) Last jedi had 1.5 multi. 

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8 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

Total? Or just this weekend?

 

Total, the drops atm are looking horrible. I don't expect that it will drop 70% in france even though OD did. But let's say 50% drop-China from RO on OW and no winter holidays. RO-China was 454m OS so take 50% away, thats $227m + $15m China and you get $242m OS.

 

Btw: 

Hong Kong OD -80%

SK OD -85%

France OD -67%

Germany OD -60% (not final)

Italy OD -40%

 

And no Christmas. It does have a stronger Euro.

Edited by pepsa
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There's absolutely no fuckin way that LF isn't panicking. one can spin this as that spin-offs will always do worse than the Saga, but they saw enormous OS drop for TLJ from TFA already and there's no reason for IX to go up. Also, Solo is only the second spin-off and it has catastrophic drop from the first spin-off. Not to mention that China is a dead market for SW which is a market that lesser franchises comfortably penetrated. 

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2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

There's absolutely no fuckin way that LF isn't panicking. one can spin this as that spin-offs will always do worse than the Saga, but they saw enormous OS drop for TLJ from TFA already and there's no reason for IX to go up. Also, Solo is only the second spin-off and it has catastrophic drop from the first spin-off. Not to mention that China is a dead market for SW which is a market that lesser franchises comfortably penetrated. 

If it does less than $250m OS, they will panick big time. If this does let's say $240m OS that is only $40m OS than a movie like Exodus: Gods and Kings.

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4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

SW movies cannot be physically made under 200M. Therefore they need OS markets cause they cannot count on a breakout like TFA every time to earn profit from domestic release. And OS interest is steadily declining. 

Of course they can be made for under 200m, the prequels all cost around 115m each ;)

There is a reason why Lucas loved digital shooting and CGI so much, and why the terchnological developments for TPM were so extremely important. it was what made it possible to keep the costs far lower than what a movie with so many effects should cost.

 

To keep things below 200m with today's circumstances, they'd probably need to shift the focus more towards that approach, which may not be something they would like to do, but in theory it should be doable.

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12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

SW movies cannot be physically made under 200M. Therefore they need OS markets cause they cannot count on a breakout like TFA every time to earn profit from domestic release. And OS interest is steadily declining. 

I think we should take this to the main Thread, we are interupting the German thread with things that don't really belong here. (This is abouisly also my fault)

 

Btw: Steadily???? :wintf:

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First weekend estimates:

#1: Solo - 400k admissions (wow, just wow)

#2: DP2 - 250k (-62%)

#3: A-IW - 75k (-59%)

 

Overall a very depressed weekend, obviously weather is playing a big part so we might see great holds next weekend. But that's just terrible for Solo.

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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Just now, IndustriousAngel said:

Weekend trend:

#1: Solo - 400k admissions (wow, just wow)

#2: DP2 - 250k (-62%)

#3: A-IW - 75k (-59%)

 

Overall a very depressed weekend, obviously weather is playing a big part so we might see great holds next weekend. But that's just terrible for Solo.

Wow thats bad for everyone.

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