BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[el sid]

@Laurent K
Last year, with only 500k total admissions a film entered the Top 50 (Top 52 to be exact) of all movies released in the year. In 2017 600k were needed. So much for our cinema attendance-frequency .
 

And the worse second trend:

#1 Ralph II 375k
#2 Creed II 200k
#3 Der Junge 175k

#4 Glass 150k
#5 Immenhof 90k
#6 Second Act 65k
#7 Aquaman 57.5k
#8 BR 57.5k
#9 The Favourite 40k
#10 Mary Queen of Scots 32.5k
#11 A Dog's Way Home 32.5k
#12 100 Dinge 27.5k
#13 Robin Hood 25k
#14 Kalte Füße 25k
 

The biggest problem yesterday for most movies was the handball WM semifinal Germany-Norway which was broadcasted exactly in the evening prime time and which had almost 12M viewers (plus Public Viewings). Probably hurted especially films like Creed II and Glass. The only positive aspect about Germany not reaching the final is that the last game will be early in the afternoon on Sunday and not hurt much (maybe a little bit the family films, maybe).
I hope the Saturday estimates tonight show some big jumps for the films compared to Friday.

[Laurent K]

3 minutes ago, el sid said:

@Laurent K
Last year, with only 500k total admissions a film entered the Top 50 (Top 52 to be exact) of all movies released in the year. In 2017 600k were needed. So much for our cinema attendance-frequency .
 

And the worse second trend:

#1 Ralph II 375k
#2 Creed II 200k
#3 Der Junge 175k

#4 Glass 150k
#5 Immenhof 90k
#6 Second Act 65k
#7 Aquaman 57.5k
#8 BR 57.5k
#9 The Favourite 40k
#10 Mary Queen of Scots 32.5k
#11 A Dog's Way Home 32.5k
#12 100 Dinge 27.5k
#13 Robin Hood 25k
#14 Kalte Füße 25k
 

The biggest problem yesterday for most movies was the handball WM semifinal Germany-Norway which was broadcasted exactly in the evening prime time and which had almost 12M viewers (plus Public Viewings). Probably hurted especially films like Creed II and Glass. The only positive aspect about Germany not reaching the final is that the last game will be early in the afternoon on Sunday and not hurt much (maybe a little bit the family films, maybe).
I hope the Saturday estimates tonight show some big jumps for the films compared to Friday.

Is there any officiel response from the Industry heure in Germany regarding this global décline  ?

[el sid]

2 minutes ago, Laurent K said:

Is there any officiel response from the Industry heure in Germany regarding this global décline  ?

Not that I would know (maybe other members?). They mention it in articles, yes, but due to the much higher ticket prices than in earlier decades the gap looks smaller than it is. And theaters have to pay such high rental costs for the stand position that they make probably their profits only with the even more expensive snacks...Then people often just work so long that they miss the beginning of the films or the time when the parking garage closes (my problem ca. since one year, you can drive out but not in after a certain time) or they are just to tired to drive for an hour, at least on Friday.
Something has to happen, but you see, it's difficult.

[Laurent K]

32 minutes ago, el sid said:

Not that I would know (maybe other members?). They mention it in articles, yes, but due to the much higher ticket prices than in earlier decades the gap looks smaller than it is. And theaters have to pay such high rental costs for the stand position that they make probably their profits only with the even more expensive snacks...Then people often just work so long that they miss the beginning of the films or the time when the parking garage closes (my problem ca. since one year, you can drive out but not in after a certain time) or they are just to tired to drive for an hour, at least on Friday.
Something has to happen, but you see, it's difficult.

Also maybe Netflix starts to impact the industry...

[terrestrial]

In parts of the country the weather is also a problem again (here we had black ice from yesterday to today midday, followed by warning for slippery streets based on snow-water mix alarm till the evening / times a lot of the movies usually start)

I should have driven somewhere before midday, and cancelled it based on the street in front of the house....

[el sid]

44 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

In parts of the country the weather is also a problem again (here we had black ice from yesterday to today midday, followed by warning for slippery streets based on snow-water mix alarm till the evening / times a lot of the movies usually start)

I should have driven somewhere before midday, and cancelled it based on the street in front of the house....

Where I live it's ok at the moment...But that's also one of the problems of the cinema industry: In the winter streets are often slippery and it's too grey and in the summer, people want to get every sunbeam they can as a compensation .

@Laurent K
Yes, I think so too. It's the comfortable, cheaper choice.
Personally I don't like this streaming services too much because if you're living more in a rural area or near montains it's often impaired. Heard from friends that they have the same problems. And it's just not the same as the big screen and also often not that cheap for a limited selection of costless films. At least it's that way with the streaming service I have because of other advantages (if you buy DVDs they're cheaper etc...).

[Aristis]

Great news in the 3rd Trend! Many movies are up.

 

WIR 450k (the first one opened to 200k...)

Junge 200k (-20%)

Creed2 185k (sadly down...)

Glass 160k (-37%)

Immenhof 95k (-21%/-39%)

BR 72,5k (-13%) Already more than 2,9M!

MQ 65k (-28%/-50%)

AQM 60k (-42%) Probably close to 1,85M - 2M will be close in the end...

 

BTS 40k

Edited January 27, 2019 by Aristis

[Taruseth]

15 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Great news in the 3rd Trend! Many movies are up.

 

WIR 450k (the first one opened to 200k...)

Junge 200k (-20%)

Creed2 185k (sadly down...)

Glass 160k (-37%)

Immenhof 95k (-21%/-39%)

BR 72,5k (-13%) Already more than 2,9M!

MQ 65k (-28%/-50%)

AQM 60k (-42%) Probably close to 1,85M - 2M will be close in the end...

 

BTS 40k

That's really nice.

Did it have previews on Wednesday or is that solely the weekend, no matter, that is a pretty impressive increase. Hope it will have a multiplier above 3 for 1.5M admissions in total.

 

Creed2 is down, but 185k is still way more than I expected.

 

 

 

I hope we see some really big movies this year. Really hoping TLK and IX are going to have monster openings (and I really hope Frozen 2 will be a monster too).

One day one move needs to dethrone HP1, but to be honest I think the biggest chance we ever got was TFA and even that failed. And we probably should be happy if TLK and IX open around 1.5M adm...

 

So...

What movies do you think have a chance at opening above 1M adm and which movies will end up above 3M adm in total.

I'd say OW:

IX: 1.8M

TLK: 1.4M

Endgame: 1M

 

Total:

TLK: 6M

IX: 5.5M

Frozen 2: 5M (#overprediction of the year)

Alladin 2: 3M

Pets 2: 3M

The untitled German movie in december?

Endgame: 3M?

 

 

 

[Aristis]

48 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

So...

What movies do you think have a chance at opening above 1M adm and which movies will end up above 3M adm in total.

I'd say OW:

IX: 1.8M

TLK: 1.4M

Endgame: 1M

 

Total:

TLK: 6M

IX: 5.5M

Frozen 2: 5M (#overprediction of the year)

Alladin 2: 3M

Pets 2: 3M

The untitled German movie in december?

Endgame: 3M?

I don't see TLK being that big in Germany actually. I really don't know why it should break out. I would be glad if it did though...

 

OW:

SW9 1,8M+ (it really should do more than SW8 1,63M)

Av4 1M+

TLK1M

 

Total (as I already wrote):

SW9 6,5M

TLK 4M

Frozen2 4M

Pets 3,5M

Av4 3,25M

 

After 2018 I'm really trying to do low predictions for Germany...

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, Aristis said:

I don't see TLK being that big in Germany actually. I really don't know why it should break out. I would be glad if it did though...

 

OW:

SW9 1,8M+ (it really should do more than SW8 1,63M)

Av4 1M+

TLK1M

 

Total (as I already wrote):

SW9 6,5M

TLK 4M

Frozen2 4M

Pets 3,5M

Av4 3,25M

 

After 2018 I'm really trying to do low predictions for Germany...

I don't either, but I really hope TLK will do great.

 

[el sid]

The Monday update - better for most movies:

#1 Ralph II 370k/440k
#2 Der Junge...205/2.505M
#3 Creed II 195k
#4 Glass 170k/480k
#5 Immenhof 100k/275k
#6 BR 75k/2.925M
#7 Second Act 65k/220k
#8 Aquaman 62.5k/1.840M
#9 Feuerwehrmann Sam 52.5k/310k
#10 The Favourite 40k
#11 BTS World Tour 37.5k
#12 A Dog's Way Home 37.5k

#13 Mary Queen of Scots 35k/105k
#14 100 Dinge 32.5k/1.4M
#15 Kalte Füße 30k/195k
#16 Robin Hood 27.5k/260k
#17 MPR 22.5k/1.090M
#18 The Wife 20k/155k
#19 Schindlers Liste 20k

Edited January 28, 2019 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Ralph 2	369.307	599	617	438.984	3.437.670	-	1
2	Der Junge muss an die frische Luft	206.772	828	250	2.507.797	21.294.500	-17	5
3	Creed 2	195.230	343	569	216.539	1.931.322	-	1
4	Glass	169.298	567	299	483.999	4.495.029	-34	2
5	Immenhof - Das Abenteuer eines Sommers	100.983	616	164	273.591	1.907.768	-16	2
6	Bohemian Rhapsody	74.179	537	138	2.924.608	27.092.585	-10	13
7	Second Act	64.110	386	166	217.698	1.817.147	-29	2
8	Aquaman	61.900	400	155	1.839.867	20.382.629	-40	6
9	Feuerwehrmann Sam	53.731	632	85	310.726	1.972.094	-7	4
10	The Favourite	42.215	100	422	51.766	399.474	-	1
-	BTS World Tour	37.944	219	173	37.944	481.170	-	1
11	A Dog's Way Home	36.930	201	184	36.930	267.718	-	1
12	Mary Queen of Scots	35.520	189	188	103.864	931.389	-19	2
13	100 Dinge	32.530	370	88	1.396.489	11.874.191	-35	8
14	Kalte Füße	29.920	392	76	195.361	1.600.410	-39	3
15	Robin Hood	27.903	420	66	258.358	2.126.456	-51	3
16	Der kleine Drache Kokosnuss - Ab in den Dschungel	26.142	523	50	347.730	2.297.196	-11	3
17	Womit haben wir das verdient?	23.115	115	201	31.864	224.524	-	1
18	Mary Poppins Returns	21.506	421	51	1.075.904	8.865.911	-50	6
19	The Wife	21.094	185	114	158.493	1.289.932	-20	4
20	Schindler's List	20.164	458	44	20.164	184.434	-	1

Good overall weekend with good openers and and good holds! Ralph Breaks the Internet is starting a lot stronger than the first one, as does Creed2. A lot of good PTAs for smaller releases, too - The Favourite did well! With last week's openers, there's a lot of fresh blood in the Top10 but Bohemian Rhapsody continues its streak of stellar drops and is now very close to that 3mil goal necessary for the "Goldene Leinwand" aka official blockbuster status!

Next weekend: The only big opener will be Instant Family which had a good start here in Austria two weeks earlier, taking our number we might see a 150k OW in Germany which might be enough for the Top3.

[IndustriousAngel]

First estimates for Germany's weekend from insidekino.de :

 

#1: Ralph2 - 260k admissions (-30%, not too good)

#2: Junge - 160k (-23%, ok)

#3: Creed2 - 125k (-36%)

#4: Glass - 110k (-35%)

 

Instant Family seem off to a worse start than here in Austria, but might top 100k with previews included. Surprisingly good start for Green Book, might also come close to 100k (saw it yesterday, people loved it, but it has few screens - hopefully strong PTA!).

 

edit: and Bohemian Rhapsody will cross the 3mil line this weekend - that's the best bit of news this weekend I guess.

Edited February 1, 2019 by IndustriousAngel

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, IndustriousAngel said:

First estimates for Germany's weekend from insidekino.de :

 

#1: Ralph2 - 260k admissions (-30%, not too good)

#2: Junge - 160k (-23%, ok)

#3: Creed2 - 125k (-36%)

#4: Glass - 110k (-35%)

 

Instant Family seem off to a worse start than here in Austria, but might top 100k with previews included. Surprisingly good start for Green Book, might also come close to 100k (saw it yesterday, people loved it, but it has few screens - hopefully strong PTA!).

 

edit: and Bohemian Rhapsody will cross the 3mil line this weekend - that's the best bit of news this weekend I guess.

BR finally did it.

So there at least will have been 5 blockbusters last year (Junge being the fifth one).

 

[el sid]

Creed II (so it will surpass the predecessor already including Sunday) and Glass with (much) better holds than I thought and reservations for Green Book looked indeed pretty good but over 100k admissions OW is also a surprise to me .

And the Thursday actuals (Blickpunkt:Film):

The new releases:

Green Book (released in only 173 theaters): 12k → 120k admissions OW predicted in the first trend of insidekino.de, probably sees an expansion next week
Instant Family (407): 10k → 135k OW
Mia And The White Lion (425): 9k → 120k OW
The Possession of Hannah Grace (200): 6k → 57.5k OW
Checker Tobi und das Geheimnis unseres Planeten (265): 3.5k → 62.5k OW
The Mule (yesterday in 85 theaters, 105 at a max this weekend): 2.150k → 17.5k OW
Belleville Cop (138, at a max 145): 1.5k → 20k OW

The holdovers - nice holds:

Der Junge...: 21k (actuals last Thursday 23k)
Ralph II: 21k whole day (actuals last Thursday whole day 21k) - stayed flat, hopefully Mark_G is too pessimistic
Creed II: 17k (30k)
Glass: 14.5k (20k)

Edited February 1, 2019 by el sid

[el sid]

The nice second trend, most movies increased:

#1 Ralph II 260k

#2 Der Junge...170k

#3 Instant Family 145k (all new releases counted with previews)
#4 Creed II 140k - on par with the predecessor but on its first weekend

#5 Green Book 135k - even better than yesterday
#6 Glass 120k

#7 Mia And The White Lion 115k
#8 Checker Tobi 65k
#9 BR 62.5k
#10 The Possession 62.5k
#11 Immenhof 60k
#12 Second Act 45k
#13 Aquaman 40k
#14 The Favourite 32.5k
#15 Mary Queen of Scots 25k
... Belleville Cop 22.5k
    The Mule 20k
 

[IndustriousAngel]

Never thought Green Book could go that high, nice!

Saw The Favourite yesterday, similar crowd as Green Book and everybody seemed to like it but of course it's less feel-good so probably no big expansion next weekend.

[terrestrial]

Insidekino.de seems to have done a questionnaire about 2019 ww BO guesses

 

Quote

InsideKino‏ @MarkGInsideKino 2h2 hours ago

More

Das sind Eurer Meinung nach die größten weltweiten Hits 2019:

$2.123.750.000 Avengers - Endgame

$1.714.062.500 Der König der Löwen (The Lion King)

$1.389.375.000 Star Wars IX

$1.357.187.500 Die Eiskönigin 2 (Freeze 2)

$1.032.333.333 Toy Story 4

 

admission Germany guesses

Quote

Das sind Eurer Meinung nach die größten Hits 2019 in Deutschland (Besucher):

5.800.000 Der König der Löwen (The Lion King)

5.560.000 Star Wars IX

4.430.000 Die Eiskönigin 2 (Freeze 2)

3.585.000 Avengers - Endgame

3.380.000 Pets 2

 

and more to find here (in German)

http://www.insidekino.com/TALK/Thema70.htm

 

 

 

[Taruseth]

21 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Insidekino.de seems to have done a questionnaire about 2019 ww BO guesses

 

 

admission Germany guesses

 

and more to find here (in German)

http://www.insidekino.com/TALK/Thema70.htm

 

 

 

they seem pretty optimistic about TLK and Avengers.

 

Don't think TS4 will be able to gross a billion.

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

they seem pretty optimistic about TLK and Avengers.

 

Don't think TS4 will be able to gross a billion.

I have no idea about TLK (not a movie I'd watch and as such no interest to look into background...), the same counts for TS4.

Avengers 4 is a possibility if:

- the quality is at least equal to Avenger 3 or preferable better

- the mood in the movie supports the wish to re-watch it (a lot), sad ending stories usually/mostly get not equally re-watched. Ppl that re-watch push often their friends / family to go with them, a few of those can do the same later on too.

- the marketing is very good

- the translations are very good

- no local event.... hinders in one of the big earner countries the interest

- no scandal....

 

1

Avengers: Infinity War

BV

$2,048.4

$678.8

33.1%

$1,369.5

66.9%

2018

 

It would be an increase of less than 5%

 

+ or -

- Exchange rates.... might be a problem, we do not know how those will be in April, May,.... so if it is final sum in $ friendly...

ot the other way around, can hinder

 

-

the rumoured runtime can be a bit of a problem too (not a must, can) as the screen-times possible per cinema is during the usual operating times reduced. Average films I feel like are around 2 hours mostly (not the average out of all movies!), If it is really 3 hours long.....

Extra fees for over-length does not counter-balance the missed screen times if the run time is that long

-