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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

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44 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

A:EG was 462k.

 

200k sounds really good, who had holiday apart from Saxony though?

Like it should have a shot at a 1M 4-day opening and hopefully a total close to the first.

 

Schools were off in Bavaria, but no official holiday. It was a normal workday for parents, 

 

Maybe something like

 

210k Wed

120k Thur

200k Fri

450k Sat

400k Sun

Edited by Poseidon
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3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

A:EG was 462k.

 

200k sounds really good, who had holiday apart from Saxony though?

Like it should have a shot at a 1M 4-day opening and hopefully a total close to the first.

 

Yeah, I changed it as soon as I saw what I did 😬

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So, the InsideKino prediction is online and... crazy high. I really hope this might come true, but we should still be very cautious (he's known as optimistic):

 

 

 

 

WE

 

 

 

Cume

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1.500.000

---

1.725.000

7.000.000

1

Frozen 2

2

440.000

-25%

3.325.000

4.250.000

4

Das perfekte Geheimnis

3

90.000

-30%

295.000

600.000

2

Last Christmas

4

87.000

-40%

3.820.000

4.000.000

7

Joker

5

75.000

---

75.000

200.000

1

Doctor Sleep

http://www.insidekino.de/DProg/ProgNOV212019.htm

 

So he thinks

OD: 225k

OW: 1,5M (4-day), 1,725M (5-day)

Total: 7M

 

This would be awesome!

Edited by Aristis
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3 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

let's just say a >1 million OW is looking very realistic and 5mil total are nearly a lock from there on with holiday season on the horizon. a 1.5mil OW makes even 6mil look possible.

Yeah, it's better not to get too excited too soon...

 

The OD is indeed the 3rd biggest of the year with around 204k

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7 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Original was $48mn. With 7mn, it could be $80mn. :ohmygod:

Don't forget this is more a kids movie - Germany has high TP but not that high for kids. It'd probably be more like $60M to $63M. And this is a very early prediction without even knowing the WE. I think $50M would be a better target first...

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11 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Original was $48mn. With 7mn, it could be $80mn. :ohmygod:

nop, ER dropped (even compared to Frozen I quite a lot) and I wouldn't get to optimistic. For now I'd say an opening weekend slightly above TLK and a final total of the first would already be pretty great for it, considering most movies didn't perform that well this year and a lot of sequels dropped (apart from Endgame obviously). (And for that it would probably need 10% more admissions as animations have a lower ATP than live action movies.)

For now I'd say:

1.05M 4-day

4.85M total would be nice (probably translates to $48M TP-increase and ER-drop equaling each other out).

Obviously could see it getting higher, but I try to remain cautious.

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Thursday Numbers:

 

#1 Frozen 2 110k // €935k/$1,04M - 2-day total 315k / ~€2,68M / ~€2,97M

#2 Geheimnis 43k (-31%) €375k/$415k

#3 Last Christmas 12k (-11%) €100k/$110k

#4 Joker 10k (-41%) €90k/$100k

Edited by Aristis
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1st Trend:

 

Frozen 1,245M (4-day), 1,45M (5-day)

   4-day ~$11,7M, 5-day ~$13,7M

   This would be the 2nd biggest OW of the year (#1 A:EG 1,67M, #3rd Geheimnis 924k, #4th TLK 921k).

 

Geheimnis 375k (-36%) 3,3M

Joker 85k (-41%) 3,825M

Last Christmas 85k (-34%/-50%)

Le Mans 66 / FvF 65k (-30%/-41%)

Edited by Aristis
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5 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Is this good for more than $50M final?

$50M is a good target, probably needs around 4,5x multipler from 4-day OW. Animation often has great legs, this year for example Pets2 has 12,5x, AB2 over 7x and Abominable over 6x.

And Minions (that opened on a very hot WE with 935k) got to 6,95M with 7,4x despite the big OW. So, if F2 isn't extremely frontloaded, 4,5x should be easy.

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11 minutes ago, Aristis said:

$50M is a good target, probably needs around 4,5x multipler from 4-day OW. Animation often has great legs, this year for example Pets2 has 12,5x, AB2 over 7x and Abominable over 6x.

And Minions (that opened on a very hot WE with 935k) got to 6,95M with 7,4x despite the big OW. So, if F2 isn't extremely frontloaded, 4,5x should be easy.

What is the ceiling for it? 6x? 7x?

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57 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

What is the ceiling for it? 6x? 7x?

A 6x and 7x would mean totals (multi is of the 4-day (which I will put at 1.2M)) of 7.2M/ 8.4M, that would be absolutely mind-blowing crazy, 7.2M would place it at #7 this decade and 8.4 as #3 (only behind TFA and Intouchables).

I'd say we stay cautious and the target is above TLK (and maybe above 6.15M, so it would be the movies with the highest number of admissions since TFA back in 2015).

And seriously Frozen 2 beating Endgame (5.13M) would be great already. Anything below 4M after such a promising looking OWend would be underwhelming though.

Edited by Taruseth
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So, the second trend is up at insidekino. Though the comment about Frozen 2 is basically ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Could be 1.85m 5-day if based on the multipliers of other animated movies, or it could be lower than expected due to the good weather or the question about capacities. For now that means: same trend as before.

 

#1 Frozen 2: 1.45m (5-day)

#2 Geheimnis: 375k

#3 Last Christmas: 100k

#4 Joker: 85k

#5 Ford vs. Ferrari: 65k

#6 Zombieland: 55k

#7 Depeche Mode: 45k

#8 Doctor Sleep: 45k

#9 Recep Ivedik 6: 35k

Edited by George Parr
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