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IndustriousAngel

BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

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11 hours ago, PKMLover said:

Is Germany a leggy market for animated movie? What can be the legs for F2?

Germany in general tends to be more leggy than the US for example (nowhere near as leggy as Japan though), but as @Poseidon pointed out weather plays a big part.

Pets 2 got those legs because the first weekend was really hot and that depressed the numbers greatly.

Frozen II opened on a rather cinema friendly weekend.

Only thing that might help Frozen II was the insane pressure that Sunday and Saturday had (a lot of almost sold out showings - that rarely if at all happens). I still have no actually idea what Sunday was worth but most things point towards the biggest day since quite some time:

Movies with days above 400k (apart from Frozen II):

Endgame (Saturday ~525k)

FJG III (Saturday and Sunday 475-525k)

TLJ (OD 425k probably Saturday below 450k)

TFA (562k OD Saturday most likely above 600k)

FJG II (Saturday most likely above TFA's).

 

And 6 movies above 4M, and last year and 2016 there wasn't a single movie above 4M.

 

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1 hour ago, Aristis said:

Thursday numbers:

 

Frozen2 70k (-36%) €575k/$630k

Geheimnis 30k (-30%) €265k/$290k

Hustlers 11,1k €95k/$105k

Last Christmas 10,8k (-10%) €90k/$100k

Joker 6,7k (-33%) €61,5k/$67,5k

First trend by insidekino.de:

 

Frozen II: 900k (-37% / -45%)   (2.78M total)* (best 2nd Wend this year above Endgame 871.3k)

Geheimnis: 275k (-34%) (3.74M total)**

Last Christmas: 95k (-12%) (460k total)***

Hustlers: 80k

Joker: 55k (-37.5%) (3.91M)****

 

* that would mean 245k over the weekdays, for a 1675k opening weekend (Thursday-Wednesday)

**If it holds well until christmas I would say it should get to around 4.5M

***That run, is kinda impressive, lol, didn't think it would get past 300k or so and now it looks like

****so Joker will definitely get above 4M.

Edited by Taruseth
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On 11/29/2019 at 12:27 PM, Aristis said:

I hope that is a rather low prediction since IM would be down from OW. I won't except anything lower than 950k :D

accept*

 

And looks like you need to settle for 900k.

Cause 2nd Trend looks like this (all but Frozen II are down from the 1st trend):

Frozen II: 900k

Geheimnis: 260k

Last Christmas: 85k

Hustlers: 77.5k

Joker: 52.5k

Le Mans 66: 40k

Zombieland: 32.5k

 

And I also have a theory why the predictions stayed at 900k, last Saturday and Sunday were insanely strong, especially Sunday was and it is most likely almost impossible to replicate that this weekend.

 

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6 hours ago, Aristis said:

Lol, don't know how that could happen :D

But maybe *Ich werde nicht, außer irgendetwas unter 950k* was what I wanted to say ;)

🤣

 

Let's hope for a better weekend.

 

Finally had the time to watch it, like it more than the first (even though songs overall are slightly weaker).

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5 hours ago, danhtruong5 said:

When will the final trend for this weekend come?

It's up; insidekino's 3rd Trend:

All but frozen are down (geheimnis by 20k, LC by 10k, Hustlers by 5k, the others three by 2.5k)

Frozen II: 900k

Geheimnis: 240k

Last Christmas: 75k

Hustlers: 72.5k

Joker: 50k

Le Mans 66: 37.5k

Zombieland: 30k

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9 hours ago, Aristis said:

Monday numbers:

F2 is up, the rest is pretty much the same.

 

Frozen 2 930k (-35%/-43%) 2,81M

Let's hope actuals come in a little higher (this btw. would barely be the 3rd best opening this year (6/8k above Geheimnis and TLK). Right now it's 700k ahead of TLK and 900k behind Avengers). During the next three days it should barely gain against Endgame (like 25-50k) and lose 200+k to TLK, but on the following weekend, it should gain 200k on Endgame and probably 50k (hopefully significantly more) on TLK.

With this weekend the target remains 6M (or more like 6.15M and the highest movie since TFA back in 2015). I hope for the best. With 2.81M after a 930k 2nd weekend 5M should be really certain. On Wednesday it should have passed 3M and after the weekend stand around 3.6M.

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Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

 

 

title

admissions

th.

PTA

total adm.

total €

drop

week

1

Frozen 2

940.941

747

1.260

2.822.300

23.857.701

-34

2

2

Das perfekte Geheimnis

244.594

736

332

3.706.978

32.902.706

-42

5

3

Last Christmas

78.709

515

153

441.826

3.666.134

-27

3

4

Hustlers

71.054

350

203

74.166

654.512

-

1

5

Joker

53.247

488

109

3.907.240

36.177.546

-39

8

6

Ford vs. Ferrari

38.188

362

105

270.470

2.593.070

-42

3

7

Zombieland 2

31.946

368

87

399.371

3.368.225

-40

4

8

Doctor Sleep

22.598

364

62

81.242

757.526

-50

2

9

The Addams Family

20.584

483

43

505.498

3.675.113

-33

6

10

Recep Ivedik 6 (KS)

17.283

113

153

352.193

2.979.745

-52

4

11

La Belle Epoque

16.418

101

163

20.924

174.536

-

1

12

Parasite

11.883

174

68

335.226

2.928.997

-30

7

13

Maleficent 2

11.301

295

38

1.033.719

9.956.183

-50

7

14

The Lighthouse

11.095

83

134

14.171

112.970

-

1

15

Lara

10.108

143

71

142.326

1.143.750

-46

4

16

Shaun the Sheep 2

9.409

401

23

844.412

5.696.678

-37

10

17

The Good Liar

8.511

103

83

8.607

71.303

-

1

18

Aretha Franklin - Amazing Grace

7.622

81

94

7.622

63.099

-

1

19

Angry Birds 2

7.410

224

33

769.208

5.378.679

-33

11

20

Proceder

7.054

79

89

7.054

81.373

-

1

While Frozen2 continued its market domination, the weekend went worse than we hoped … steep drops and only two releases >100k admissions and even some with <10k admissions on the chart, nearly like a summer weekend.

Next weekend: No danger for the Top2 …

Edited by IndustriousAngel
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Like I did in the France Thread, here's a comparison of F1 and F2:

 

WE

Frozen1

Frozen2

1st

572

 

654

1.430

 

1.635

2nd

577

1%

1.355

941

-34%

2.822

3rd

476

-18%

1.952

     

4th

433

-9%

2.499

     

5th

540

25%

3.242

     

6th

402

-26%

3.838

     

7th

158

-61%

4.091

     

8th

107

-32%

4.217

     

9th

81

-24%

4.311

     

10th

89

10%

4.412

     
     

4.767M

   

6.000M

 

Since I hope F2 might get around Minions number it's interesting to compare those runs too:

 

WE

Minions

Frozen2

1st

935

 

935

1.430

 

1.635

2nd

1.040

11%

2.394

941

-34%

2.822

3rd

760

-27%

3.598

 

 

 

4th

537

-29%

4.419

 

 

 

5th

366

-32%

5.147

 

 

 

6th

195

-47%

5.521

 

 

 

7th

242

24%

5.893

 

 

 

8th

111

-54%

6.160

 

 

 

9th

81

-27%

6.323

 

 

 

10th

125

54%

6.497

 

 

 
     

6.946M

   

6.000M

Minions run was just crazy. It was first from 1st to 5th WE and then again on the 7th and 10th. It's the 5th biggest CGI-animated movie in admissions and the biggest in gross (€57,93M). Frozen getting there too would be awesome!

 

 

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1 hour ago, Aristis said:

Minions run was just crazy. It was first from 1st to 5th WE and then again on the 7th and 10th. It's the 5th biggest CGI-animated movie in admissions and the biggest in gross (€57,93M). Frozen getting there too would be awesome!

 

Minions was in summer, F2 can have a fell in W3/4, then a rise in W5/6/7 thanks to holiday (at least I hope).

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1 hour ago, edroger3 said:

Minions was in summer, F2 can have a fell in W3/4, then a rise in W5/6/7 thanks to holiday (at least I hope).

A rise on weekend 5 seems highly unlikely. It is not part of the holidays yet. Frozen didn't manage to increase on that weekend back in 2013 either. Fack ju Göhte! did increase, but it was the only movie. And back then it was the weekend after The Hobbit 2 started, while this time around it is the weekend Star Wars starts, which will capture most ofthe audience and get the largest screens, meaning there was a better chance for a good hold back then than there is now due to how the competition is scheduled (dropping from facing a huge opener to dropping against a huge opener).

 

Weekend six could see an increase though. Almost everything improved or had a tiny drop, even with two pretty big starts happening at the same time.

 

Frozen's 7th weekend was below but at least broadly in the same range as the 5th weekend. Most movies were down quite a bit from the 5th and obviously even more from the 6th weekend. Apart from Fack ju Göhte! which was pretty close to its 6th weekend and above its 5th one. With Frozen 2 being a sequel, and burning off more demand right now, it might just see a bump on weekend 6 before dropping below weekend 5 on weekend 7 again.

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1st Trend:

 

#1 Frozen 2 600k (-36%) 3,56M - it got past 3M yesterday, if it reaches 586k+ this WE it'll have the biggest 3rd WE of the year.

#2 Geheimnis 160k (-35%) 3,945M

#3 Last Christmas 75k (-5%) 550k

#4 Hustlers 55k (-23%/-26%)

#5 Joker 35k (-34%) 3,96M

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