BO Germany/Austria: Dune 2 fine 2nd weekend

[el sid]

Very stormy weather in large parts of Germany and also partly no rail traffic which very probably had an impact on the Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:
 

New Releases:

Hot Dog: 18k (a German crime comedy, released in 650 theaters, reviews between 1.5 and 6/10)
Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft: ?k (a German family-comedy sequel, some pretty bad and some ok reviews)
Downsizing: 8k (279, reviews mostly between 5-7/10, also a few very bad and some very good ones) – that seems a bit low; in other reports it was a closer race between this movie and Hot Dog and in my theaters at least from reservations it was doing better than Hot Dog but HD has probably more walk ups
Darkest Hour: 6k (145, good and very good reviews) – not bad
 

Holdovers (quite ok for the weather situation):
 

SW 8: 13.5k (actuals last Thursday 22.5k)
Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 11.5k (18.5k)

The Commuter: 11k (22.1k)
The Greatest Showman: 9k

Jumanji: 5.5k (12.5k)

Aus dem Nichts: 4k

Wonder Wheel: 2k (2.750)

Edited January 18, 2018 by el sid

[IndustriousAngel]

That's incredibly low for Hot Dog ... considering that holdovers are not that bad, a disappointment.

[Brainbug]

23 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

That's incredibly low for Hot Dog ... considering that holdovers are not that bad, a disappointment.

 

The trailer was extremely bad though. Cant imagine anyone getting interested in Hot Dog if they watch that trailer

[IndustriousAngel]

11 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

The trailer was extremely bad though. Cant imagine anyone getting interested in Hot Dog if they watch that trailer

Never saw it, german movies go a bit under our radar most of the time.

 

First estimates from insidekino.de:

 

#1: HotDog - 150k (ouchhh, even some previews included afaik)

#2: SW8 - 125k (-38%)

#3/4/5: DbH - Jum - Commuter with 100k each

#6: Hilfe - 125k incl. previews

[el sid]

Some Thursday actuals (source Blickpunkt:Film):

New Releases:

Hot Dog: 12k – even worse than the estimates, maybe the people who weren‘t sure if they really want to see it cancelled their reservations due to the weather
Downsizing: 8.5k → 90k OW predicted in the first trend, in line with expectations
Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft: 5k
Darkest Hour: 5k → 50 OW predicted in the first trend, a bit above the expectations

Holdovers:

The Commuter: 11.5k (actuals last Thursday 22.1k)
SW 8: 9.750 (22.5k)
Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 9k (18.5k)

[el sid]

Better late than never . The second trend shows some bigger changes and (sadly with two exceptions) nice improvements:

#1 Hilfe, ich meine Eltern geschrumpft 160k - a big jump!
#2 Hot Dog 150k - no increase here
#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 120k - also a pretty big improvement
#4 The Commuter 115k
#5 SW 8 - 100k
#6 Jumanji 100k
#7 Downsizing 85k
#8 The Greatest Showman 72.5k
#9 Insidious 4 50k
#10 Darkest Hour 50k
#11 Aus dem Nichts 40k
#12 Ferdinand 32.5k
#13 Coco 25k
#14 Pitch Perfect 3 25k

Edited January 20, 2018 by el sid

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, el sid said:

Better late than never . The second trend shows some bigger changes and (sadly with two exceptions) nice improvements:

#1 Hilfe, ich meine Eltern geschrumpft 160k - a big jump!
#2 Hot Dog 150k - no increase here
#3 Dieses bescheuerte Herz 120k - also a pretty big improvement
#4 The Commuter 115k
#5 SW 8 - 100k
#6 Jumanji 100k
#7 Downsizing 85k
#8 The Greatest Showman 72.5k
#9 Insidious 4 50k
#10 Darkest Hour 50k
#11 Aus dem Nichts 40k
#12 Ferdinand 32.5k
#13 Coco 25k
#14 Pitch Perfect 3 25k

 

[IndustriousAngel]

Final estimates up once more, obviously weather hadn't as much of an impact as feared.

[Aristis]

Monday numbers:

 

Hot Dog 150/160
Hilfe 147,5/177,5
DBH 132,5/1650 (-31%)
Commuter 115/355 (-38%/-48%)
Jumanji 112,5/1625 (-33%)
SW8 110/5665 (-46%) Hopefully it can reach 6M without Triples...
Downsizing 77,5/92,5
Showman 75/470 (-34%)
Darkest Hour 60/62,5
Ferdinand 55/845 (-23%) Should get to 1M too (31. in 2017)
Insidious 52,5/375 (-43%)
Coco 42,5/1195 (-33%)
Aus dem Nichts 40/460 (-17%)
PP3 32,5/955 (-58%) (Even after the big drop it should get to 1M, 32. in 2017)
Deliha2 25
Vincent 22,5/195 (-27%)
Paddington II 22,5/1175 (-34%)
Your Name 20/90 (Calculating a drop doesn't make much sense since it's an event with few showtimes)

 

 

Edited January 22, 2018 by Aristis

[Aristis]

InsideKino has its (very optimistic...) 2018 forecast:

 

1	4,0	Han Solo	BV
1	4,0	Jurassic World 2	U
1	4,0	The Incredibles 2	BV
4	3,5	Fantastic Beasts 2	WB
5	3,0	Avengers 3	BV
5	3,0	Deadpool 2	FOX
5	3,0	Mamma Mia 2	U
5	3,0	The Grinch	U
9	2,8	FSOG3	U
10	2,5	Jim Knopf und Lukas der Lokomotivführer	WB
11	2,2	Hotel Transylvania 3	COL
12	2,0	Smallfoot	WB
13	2,0	Mary Poppins Returns	BV
14	2,0	Der Junge muss an die frische Luft	WB

 

I hope his forecast isn't too optimistic but to me every movie except FSOG3 seems to high...

[IndustriousAngel]

6 hours ago, Aristis said:

I hope his forecast isn't too optimistic but to me every movie except FSOG3 seems to high...

That FSOG3 number caught my eye, too ... I see no reason why it shouldn't hit 3mil. Incredibles2 is the big wild card this year I think; might go either way but if it's family-friendly AND funny it might win the year.

[George Parr]

I had thought about listing what I thought would be the top 10 movies of the year, but I was away over the weekend so I didn't have the time for it

 

I think Han Solo is too high, it's not going to reach 4m if Rogue One didn't reach that mark. Especially this close after the last Star Wars movie.

 

The Incredibles 2 I would have a bit higher. It should have a really good chance at finishing first this year. There are quite a few sequels to movies that landed in the 3m to low 4m range. Makes it kind of tough to really place them. The year might run a lot like 2016, nothing really big, but a ton of stuff bunched together in the top 10.

[IndustriousAngel]

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Hot Dog	150.359	650	231	161.422	1.401.260	-	1
2	Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft	147.015	539	273	176.232	1.172.832	-	1
3	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	132.085	700	189	1.647.142	13.673.391	-31	5
4	The Commuter	114.793	458	251	375.990	3.263.956	-38	2
5	Jumanji	113.251	587	193	1.623.559	15.670.345	-33	5
6	Star Wars 8	110.406	513	215	5.662.962	66.781.197	-45	6
7	Downsizing	78.893	279	283	92.347	798.518	-	1
8	The Greatest Showman	76.240	534	143	474.500	4.091.053	-33	3
9	The Darkest Hour	58.768	144	408	61.808	554.652	-	1
10	Ferdinand	54.150	666	81	844.332	5.984.053	-24	6
11	Insidious 4	52.644	385	137	371.929	3.306.205	-43	3
12	Coco	41.780	551	76	1.191.110	9.126.570	-34	8
13	Aus dem Nichts	40.983	350	117	464.387	3.806.722	-15	9
14	Pitch Perfect 3	31.955	388	82	955.661	7.853.202	-58	5
15	Deliha 2	24.244	45	539	24.244	222.652	-	1
16	Loving Vincent	22.820	167	137	191.629	1.501.640	-25	4
17	Paddington 2	21.643	492	44	1.155.520	7.805.506	-37	9
18	Your Name	19.535	169	116	84.365	1.022.641	-70	2
19	The Leisure Seeker	17.769	161	110	118.673	932.325	-37	3
20	Murder on the Orient Express	16.059	231	70	1.462.310	12.811.715	-46	11

 

A very wide selection of successful releases; and three domestic ones on top! That's a reason for celebration even if overall attendance was a bit low.

Next weekend: One more domestic release, thriller Nur Gott kann mich richten (will hurt Commuter), and some interesting smaller releases, among them Three Billboards and Wonder. No blockbusters but we should see a similar result as this week, with many coexisting releases.

[Taruseth]

18 minutes ago, IndustriousAngel said:

Germany's Top20 last weekend:

 

 

	title	admissions	th.	PTA	total adm.	total €	drop	week
1	Hot Dog	150.359	650	231	161.422	1.401.260	-	1
2	Hilfe, ich hab meine Eltern geschrumpft	147.015	539	273	176.232	1.172.832	-	1
3	Dieses bescheuerte Herz	132.085	700	189	1.647.142	13.673.391	-31	5
4	The Commuter	114.793	458	251	375.990	3.263.956	-38	2
5	Jumanji	113.251	587	193	1.623.559	15.670.345	-33	5
6	Star Wars 8	110.406	513	215	5.662.962	66.781.197	-45	6
7	Downsizing	78.893	279	283	92.347	798.518	-	1
8	The Greatest Showman	76.240	534	143	474.500	4.091.053	-33	3
9	The Darkest Hour	58.768	144	408	61.808	554.652	-	1
10	Ferdinand	54.150	666	81	844.332	5.984.053	-24	6
11	Insidious 4	52.644	385	137	371.929	3.306.205	-43	3
12	Coco	41.780	551	76	1.191.110	9.126.570	-34	8
13	Aus dem Nichts	40.983	350	117	464.387	3.806.722	-15	9
14	Pitch Perfect 3	31.955	388	82	955.661	7.853.202	-58	5
15	Deliha 2	24.244	45	539	24.244	222.652	-	1
16	Loving Vincent	22.820	167	137	191.629	1.501.640	-25	4
17	Paddington 2	21.643	492	44	1.155.520	7.805.506	-37	9
18	Your Name	19.535	169	116	84.365	1.022.641	-70	2
19	The Leisure Seeker	17.769	161	110	118.673	932.325	-37	3
20	Murder on the Orient Express	16.059	231	70	1.462.310	12.811.715	-46	11

 

 

 

A very wide selection of successful releases; and three domestic ones on top! That's a reason for celebration even if overall attendance was a bit low.

Next weekend: One more domestic release, thriller Nur Gott kann mich richten (will hurt Commuter), and some interesting smaller releases, among them Three Billboards and Wonder. No blockbusters but we should see a similar result as this week, with many coexisting releases.

SW8 finished #6 in admissions and #1! in €!

[IndustriousAngel]

Going by my theater, Wonder should win the weekend but overall admissions are extremely low (German releases not doing that well in Austria)

[FantasticBeasts]

This thread's titles can really change your outlook on life but not in a positive way.

[IndustriousAngel]

7 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

This thread's titles can really change your outlook on life but not in a positive way.

yes, sadly those meagre weekends keep chasing one another ... I really hope for an upwards trend in 2018 but that's just hope. Realistically, we might drop behind 2017

[George Parr]

I'd be very surprised if that weren't the case. The whole year has very little in terms of blockbusters, even more so in the early stages of the year, and the World Cup should once again hurt as well. There isn't really much that screams "this year is going to be a good one!".

 

Now if 2019 falls flat, then we will have problems. Not sure if that lineup will work as well as it should in the US, but it definately looks a whole lot more promising than the one of 2018.

[el sid]

Some Thursday estimates from insidekino.de/forum:

New Releases:

Wonder: 10k (released in 462 theaters, mostly good reviews) – that number seems a bit low measured against several better looking reports, but it's a weekend film, let's see
Nur Gott kann mich richten: 5k (a German action-thriller, 158, several ok and also several good reviews)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 5.5k (128, almost only good and very good reviews including some 10/10) – not bad at all, the nominations help

Holdovers:

SW 8: 6.5k (9.750)
The Commuter: 6.5k (11.5k)
Hot Dog: 6k (12k) - should be better
Dieses bescheuerte Herz: 6k (9k)
The Greatest Showman: 5.5k (estimated 9k last Thursday)
Darkest Hour: 5k (5k) - very good
Jumanji: 3.5k plus walk ups as always
Downsizing: 3.5k (8.5k) - no good WOM if that number holds

[IndustriousAngel]

An mentioned, Wonder should win the weekend but it's looking like a very weak winner, indeed ... 12 people in my 20:30 show