WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[John Marston]

Remember Lightyear has a 200m budget. I think we are heading to flop territory here 

[TwoMisfits]

Since almost all the trackers had higher previews, I will assume that Lightyear did not play as a "full country" movie and that the middle of the country and rural areas just didn't show up at all (and I'd also be interested in demos, since Philly seemed to lag a lot and almost be more on point for this preview number, and so, this may be a movie that is only pulling certain demos in strongly vs the normal 4 quad for everyone Pixar)...

[M37]

[Liiviig 1998]

13 minutes ago, ScareLol said:

 

 

oof . Going to need a good friday. 

[EmpireCity]

Let the complete overreactions on BOT begin!!

 

Right on schedule.  

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Like I said before, Disney+ is a huge problem in turning families away from Lightyear, as well as the concept being a real "who asked for this".

 

But I have been thinking the past week or so that the recent inflation issues are a huge problem as well. I can't prove this per se, but inflation and costs are the worst it's ever been. $5 per gallon and food prices being the way that they are has already made me rework my own budgets and work from home a lot more, just so I can avoid spending on gas more. I'm sure a lot of people, especially families, are struggling right now and they will look over their entertainment budgets and consider that going to buy movie tickets just aren't worth it since there's so much entertainment at home.

 

This could of course be wrong, and this obviously does not excuse Lightyear's box office, but if the next couple weeks begin to see underperformances, we might need to rethink about the box office for the rest of the year, and I think this is something worth talking about.

 

(As an aside, this isn't an invitation to debate about Joe Biden and his presidency. We have a politics forum for that kind of stuff, so don't even try.)

 

You may have a point, entertainment and theaters is one of the first things people cut from budgets. Especially if it's not a hyped up movie and it's available in a month or so on streaming.

 

Lightyear looked and felt like a cash grab, even by Disney standards, from when it was announced. And the promos and reviews haven't done much to change that view, especially with reviews being the "it's fine" variety for the most part.

[YM!]

Guys 5.2m is a resounding success, it’ll do a a whopping 10x multiple at best. It’s doing a 50m opening at best, look at how powerful that is even though another family film did like $73m opening a few months ago. It’s doing over Sing 2, so we should be happy. Forget about the fact that it’s looking likely to not do 200m domestic or 400m worldwide (the latter of which would be under Sing 2). Theaters would be happy one of the supposed biggest hit of the summer is a wet fart at the box office. And if you think any ramifications comes from Lightyear’s performance for Disney/Pixar or if it’s cause for concern you are a hater. Be blindly happy.

Edited June 17, 2022 by YourMother

[titanic2187]

Is this a typo? I seldom see BOT tracker team have so many misses.

[Jake Lockley]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't believe it include WED. $5M+ THU is worst based on all the data.

It fair to assume that it will be corrected to match the 6m range we were hearing yesterday?

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Let the complete overreactions on BOT begin!!

 

Right on schedule.  

 

Calling a bad preview number bad isnt overreacting i think.

[Eric Duncan]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

Let the complete overreactions on BOT begin!!

 

Right on schedule.  

At best this is getting low 60s, and with audience WOM already looking bad (sub-90 on RT's Verified Aud score), who knows if that's possible. How is earth is this number excusable?

[filmlover]

I mean, for all the handwringing, this is still likely going to beat Sing 2 to become the biggest animated movie of the pandemic era (and the biggest gross of any animated movie since Frozen II), so that's one bar that will be cleared.

 

(unless of course Minions beats it in two weeks, but I'm still not convinced that The Curse of Franchise Fatigue isn't lurking around the corner for that series)

[wildphantom]

Inflation is a massive shout. 
 

Families aren’t going to afford everything this summer, and their suspicions Lightyear will be on tv in two months are only ignited by the ‘Doctor Strange June 22’ banner they get every time they log on to Disney+. 
 

People aren’t stupid. If they’re picking what they can skip to be able to see everything they want as quickly as possible, Lightyear is one that fits the bill. 
 

I saw it earlier. It’s good. 
What it isn’t however is a Toy Story film and you can bet plenty of parents will be realising that within ten minutes when their little ones are faced with an intense sci-fi mission movie. 

Edited June 17, 2022 by wildphantom

[YM!]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I mean, for all the handwringing, this is still likely going to beat Sing 2 to become the biggest animated movie of the pandemic era (and the biggest gross of any animated movie since Frozen II), so that's one bar that will be cleared.

 

(unless of course Minions beats it in two weeks, but I'm still not convinced that The Curse of Franchise Fatigue isn't lurking around the corner for that series)

Yeah be happy with the powerful 175m best case scenario, it’s just under Sonic 2.

[stripe]

Not a promising start, sadly. Let's cross fingers for a recovery and around 65-70M OW

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Jake Lockley said:

It fair to assume that it will be corrected to match the 6m range we were hearing yesterday?

Not $6M but I was thinking $5.5M THU only, $5.2M will be within range. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I mean, for all the handwringing, this is still likely going to beat Sing 2 to become the biggest animated movie of the pandemic era (and the biggest gross of any animated movie since Frozen II), so that's one bar that will be cleared.

 

(unless of course Minions beats it in two weeks, but I'm still not convinced that The Curse of Franchise Fatigue isn't lurking around the corner for that series)

 

Of course, it costs more than double every animation released in the period...so it's kinda damning with faint praise.

 

If it doesn't top Sing 2's total DOM, it would be a catastrophic fail, especially seeing how all the May/June movies have been going...

[Jonwo]

I do think people are freaking out unnecessarily, Lightyear underperforming is not going to cause Pixar to be shut down or only producing films for Disney+ exclusively. If Minions and Super-Pets do well then the conclusion is that Lightyear was an unnecessary spin-off much like how Cars 2 and Cars 3 were unnecessary sequels. 

[TomCruiseTop]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

You may have a point, entertainment and theaters is one of the first things people cut from budgets. Especially if it's not a hyped up movie and it's available in a month or so on streaming.

 

That's why Avatar became the highest grossing film of all time when we were in the eye of the great recession? 

[John2015]

Just now, Eric Lightyear said:

At best this is getting low 60s, and with audience WOM already looking bad (sub-90 on RT's Verified Aud score), who knows if that's possible. How is earth is this number excusable?

RT's audience score will stay low, partially because many Trump supporters give it low rating.