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WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

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1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

I do think people are freaking out unnecessarily, Lightyear underperforming is not going to cause Pixar to be shut down or only producing films for Disney+ exclusively. If Minions and Super-Pets do well then the conclusion is that Lightyear was an unnecessary spin-off much like how Cars 2 and Cars 3 were unnecessary sequels. 

Super-Pets feels like a total nonevent to me. If it makes $100M I think that'll be enough to consider a win.

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2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Since almost all the trackers had higher previews, I will assume that Lightyear did not play as a "full country" movie and that the middle of the country and rural areas just didn't show up at all (and I'd also be interested in demos, since Philly seemed to lag a lot and almost be more on point for this preview number, and so, this may be a movie that is only pulling certain demos in strongly vs the normal 4 quad for everyone Pixar)...

Agree, I expected LY to skew decently white and metro, but not to this degree

 

3 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Like I said before, Disney+ is a huge problem in turning families away from Lightyear, as well as the concept being a real "who asked for this".

 

But I have been thinking the past week or so that the recent inflation issues are a huge problem as well. I can't prove this per se, but inflation and costs are the worst it's ever been. $5 per gallon and food prices being the way that they are has already made me rework my own budgets and work from home a lot more, just so I can avoid spending on gas more. I'm sure a lot of people, especially families, are struggling right now and they will look over their entertainment budgets and consider that going to buy movie tickets just aren't worth it since there's so much entertainment at home.

 

This could of course be wrong, and this obviously does not excuse Lightyear's box office, but if the next couple weeks begin to see underperformances, we might need to rethink about the box office for the rest of the year, and I think this is something worth talking about.

 

And this may be part of the reason why. Both culturally and economically, moviegoing is slowly becoming more of an upscale entertainment venture, in a time with fewer discretionary dollars to spend.  Knowing LY will be on Disney+ sooner rather than later, with both Minions and Thor on deck, can certainly understand why it might draw the short straw, be the one to be skipped, even by those who still have the budget for movies.

 

I've mused a few times about the possibility of a much smaller theatrical audience and seeing what happens when they finally have to compete directly, certainly more than over the prior year, and we may be starting to see that happen. TGM started the summer off with a bang, but could on our way to a string of "disappointments" from then on, diminishing returns vs expectations as there just aren't enough entertainment dollars left as summer continues

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2 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

At best this is getting low 60s, and with audience WOM already looking bad (sub-90 on RT's Verified Aud score), who knows if that's possible. How is earth is this number excusable?


yeah. They’re going to find their younger kids aren’t going to be able to engage with much of this at all. That’s not the movie’s fault, but the word of mouth will absolutely have some fuel from audiences that have gone with their kids and not gotten toy story. They went for the Buzz they were used to and ended up taking their toddlers to see something more like Final Fantasy The Spirits Within. Lmao. 

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1 minute ago, M37 said:

Agree, I expected LY to skew decently white and metro, but not to this degree

 

 

And this may be part of the reason why. Both culturally and economically, moviegoing is slowly becoming more of an upscale entertainment venture, in a time with fewer discretionary dollars to spend.  Knowing LY will be on Disney+ sooner rather than later, with both Minions and Thor on deck, can certainly understand why it might draw the short straw, be the one to be skipped, even by those who still have the budget for movies.

 

I've mused a few times about the possibility of a much smaller theatrical audience and seeing what happens when they finally have to compete directly, certainly more than over the prior year, and we may be starting to see that happen. TGM started the summer off with a bang, but could on our way to a string of "disappointments" from then on, diminishing returns vs expectations as there just aren't enough entertainment dollars left as summer continues


some truth to what you’re saying I think, but if Maverick was a Disney movie it’s in no way making what it’s making. 
 

People are WAY more clued up now on these new windows and who makes what than they’re given credit for. 

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2 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

I wouldn't panic just yet, LY clearly a walk-up type of movie. That said would love TGM threatening the top spot with an out this world Sunday increase. :)

“Walk up movie” that nobody walked up to :ph34r:

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1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Super-Pets feels like a total nonevent to me. If it makes $100M I think that'll be enough to consider a win.

$100m domestic would be good considering that we've yet to have a non Lego WAG film crack that number. I think it might a bit better than that.

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Though to be fair Lightyear’s flopping is more due to being unappealing as no one wants a Lightyear movie. I think if the other past three Pixar movies got theatrical releases with no Covid, Lightyear would easily be the lowest of the four. It seemed like a Lego Batman/Detective Pikachu performance seemed kind of obvious (though I was expecting larger numbers due to Pixar) after the first trailer blew up and was kind of meme’d.

 

I do think maybe WDAS and Pixar could see budget cuts and I think some films will go theatrical (definitely don’t think the theatrical animation is doomed as I’m positive Minions will outdo Lightyear because kids seem to respond well to the trailers and even with fatigue Minions had far better marketing but there’s a lot of potential big animations next year) but I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if more direct to Disney+ release or day and date from risky films in the future mainly because Bob Chapek is totally short sided enough to do it.

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I don't think Lightyear of all movies should be the strongest indication of a major tectonic shift in moviegoing and the box office. Maybe we should wait to see how another family movie like Minions 2 will do, or another blockbuster like Thor: Love and Thunder. We also have more mid-budget films with decent potential in the next few weeks than we've had in a while. There will be plenty of data points going forward. We just had an incredibly strong opening for TGM and a more than serviceable start for JWD (and both have continued to do well).

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If $5.2M is really Wed/Thurs numbers then yea, this is a Solo level disappointment incoming. The best case off of that would have been 12-13x but that would have needed Inside Out level WOM and not just decent/good WOM.

 

I’ll stick to my 10-11x previews prediction and hope for the best.

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Just now, YourMother said:

Though to be fair Lightyear’s flopping is more due to being unappealing as no one wants a Lightyear movie. I think if the other past three Pixar movies got theatrical releases with no Covid, Lightyear would easily be the lowest of the four. It seemed like a Lego Batman/Detective Pikachu performance seemed kind of obvious (though I was expecting larger numbers due to Pixar) after the first trailer blew up and was kind of meme’d.

 

I do think maybe WDAS and Pixar could see budget cuts and I think some films will go theatrical (definitely don’t think the theatrical animation is doomed as I’m positive Minions will outdo Lightyear because kids seem to respond well to the trailers and even with fatigue Minions had far better marketing but there’s a lot of potential big animations next year) but I definitely wouldn’t be surprised if more direct to Disney+ release or day and date from risky films in the future mainly because Bob Chapek is totally short sided enough to do it.

WDAS I imagine their budgets are safe as they're generally lower than Pixar but I think the days of $200m for a single animated film are over. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Super-Pets feels like a total nonevent to me. If it makes $100M I think that'll be enough to consider a win.

It’s Bad Guys with DC branding, going to skew to younger kids and not much else, the default/leftover choice for those who have already seen LY and Minions

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20 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Let the complete overreactions on BOT begin!!

 

Right on schedule.  

 

if a movie does poorly and everyone correctly notices that the movie is doing poorly, maybe the movie is just doing poorly? the preview number could’ve been 2M and you’d still find a way to spin it as a perfectly fine number it’s driven by walk ups don’t worry guys, 60M is still within reach

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