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Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m

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2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

So it is true, still many aren't getting a day off on Juneteenth. 

Next year will be the first year Juneteenth falls on a weekday since officially becoming a federal holiday so we'll have to wait another year to see what the effect is. Kind of like how the Veteran's Day impact depends on which day of the week it falls on (this year it lands on a Friday).

Edited by filmlover
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9 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

is the final more likely to go over or under these estimates?

 

Not sure because we haven't gotten official numbers for Sunday due to the studios being closed today.  

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2 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

is TG being above last Monday good?

It should given that it's technically a holiday this year, even if the effects haven't been fully felt yet. The bigger question is if it can keep ahead of Avatar in dallies for the rest of the week (Avatar did 5m, 4.7m, 4.7m). I'm personally hedging my bets towards TGM doing 6, 5, 5 for the rest of the week, maybe I'm being a bit optimistic.

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21 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Today looks ~50% inflated to me, we’ll see what tues and wed bring.

if that's the case today should have been about 4m for TGM, so tmrw should be about 4.5-5m, which would be a 35-40% drop. Idk seems a bit steep to me. I'd say this is more akin to a July 4th style bump (30%)

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5 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

if that's the case today should have been about 4m for TGM, so tmrw should be about 4.5-5m, which would be a 35-40% drop. Idk seems a bit steep to me. I'd say this is more akin to a July 4th style bump (30%)

Today 50% inflated as in 150% of what it normally would be. So the value sans bump being 2/3 or -33.3%

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We shall see TGM overtaking JWD sometime soon in dailies. That $8m Monday is good for the second biggest 4th Monday ever behind Avengers (Memorial Day). Need $5.3m Tuesday for the biggest 4th Tuesday ever, Incredibles 2 currently on top.

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6 hours ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Today 50% inflated as in 150% of what it normally would be. So the value sans bump being 2/3 or -33.3%

Yeah, I think +45-50% bump seems about right. For TGM, the Sat to Mon drops after the first week were -66% and -67%, so expected Mon would be ~$5.3, estimated $8M, which is +50% (though that could be inflated a bit from spillover due to lack of allocated capacity on FD Sunday)

 

JWD had a -53% Sat to Sat drop, would expect ~$5.7M for Mon, got $8.5M, also +50%,.  LY is in its first week, so no baseline; using the TS4 Sat to Mon drop it is only +17% from "expected", though weekdays are softer now, so that's not really an apples to apples comparison. Implies Mon without holiday would have been only $3.4M ... ouch

 

Strange MoM should be around $740K if the +50% holds.

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One could say Lightyear came crashing down on earth ever since the preview number signaled Houston, that, indeed, the take-off was a stumbling one.

 

Spoiler

Im sorry. Im in the mood for bad jokes today

 

Edited by Brainbug the Dinosaur
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