Weekly Thread 6/20/22 - JWD $8.5m, TGM $8.0m, LY $6.8m

[Flamengo81]

4 hours ago, baumer said:

 

 

Everything you say here is correct.  I know ET ended it's first domestic run with something like 360 mill and then the rerelease in 85 pit it over 400 mill, the first film to hit that number.  I was only 13 in 85 but I remember it was a pretty big deal at the time.  SW had rereleases as well in the 80's and it went into the 300's...I'd have to look it up but yea it wasn't until 97 when it hit 400 mill.  

 

ET really captured the hearts of North Americans.....it was the Titanic of the 80's.

ET is a legendary movie here in Brazil, it was one of the most watched movies on tv for decades, mostly in the "Sessão da Tarde" (TV slot destined for movies in Globo channel) which aired movies in the middle of the afternoon in the biggest tv channel nationwide. I don't know about the newer generations (born in this century), but for everyone born until the end of the 90's it's one of the most iconic movies ever...

[LonePirate]

Please stand up and take a bow if you had TGM hitting $1B WW before DS2. Looks like TGM will reach the milestone sometime around the First of July, give or take a day or two while DS2 is still a couple of weeks away at best, if it makes there at all.

[Hilpkioy]

5 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Please stand up and take a bow if you had TGM hitting $1B WW before DS2. Looks like TGM will reach the milestone sometime around the First of July, give or take a day or two while DS2 is still a couple of weeks away at best, if it makes there at all.

Would it not hit by Sunday? Assuming the International holds continue to be 8m as it was last and even this monday and maybe 7m through Thursday. Combine that with Dom it would almost certainly be at 930m by Thursday. If it stays above 30m on the weekend for both International and Domestic it would be at 990m. Plus a debut in South Korea of 10m$+ would put it over 1b.

[Juby]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Am bit bearish on BP2, thinking somewhere around 500M at the moment. Will be happy to take 700 obviously.

 

TGM 625M may happen but 658 653 seems a bit too high.

 

TGM $636m for now, but if it keeps surprise us, I think $660 million is possible.

 

BP2 - no chance for +$600 million.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I wouldn't say NO chance for 600m and BP. I'd put it at like 520-550ish.

[JustLurking]

Sequel of a 700M film with 4 years inflation has 0 chance at 600M before we've even seen one teaser of it. Ooooook.

[Xavier]

38 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Sequel of a 700M film with 4 years inflation has 0 chance at 600M before we've even seen one teaser of it. Ooooook.

Yeah, I too feel people are downplaying BP2. The first one was a cultural juggernaut and (awful CGI third act aside) left a good impression so why wouldn’t everyone come back for the sequel? They might even have some other Avengers sprinkled here and there  + the Chadwick Boseman replacement curiosity factor.

Edited June 22, 2022 by Xavier

[Agafin]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask but, is dynamic pricing still a thing in the US? I remeMber during the runs of NWH and Batman, several people reported that tickets for those anticipated movies had a surchage compared to other movies. Is that still the case?

[The Dark Alfred]

4 hours ago, Hilpkioy said:

Best 4th Tuesday 😩

 

Yep, and it has a great shot posting best Wednesday as well. Avatar's $4.7m to beat.

Edited June 22, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[wildphantom]

9 hours ago, baumer said:

 

 

Everything you say here is correct.  I know ET ended it's first domestic run with something like 360 mill and then the rerelease in 85 pit it over 400 mill, the first film to hit that number.  I was only 13 in 85 but I remember it was a pretty big deal at the time.  SW had rereleases as well in the 80's and it went into the 300's...I'd have to look it up but yea it wasn't until 97 when it hit 400 mill.  

 

ET really captured the hearts of North Americans.....it was the Titanic of the 80's.

I saw it in the summer of 86 on a re-release in the U.K.  I’d just turned 6. 
Changed my life. Us movie nerds all have that one movie that changed everything, and that film rocked my world. 
Remains to this day my favourite film ever, and I remember that experience watching it for the first time vividly. 
 

My dad didn’t even tell me where we were going when we went to see it. Approaching the cinema I saw the iconic poster, but at 6 i didn’t know what it was. Knew nothing. 
 

But yeah, that film was the catalyst for everything I then got into. 

[wildphantom]

8 hours ago, superduperm said:

Just read the TGM IMAX news.

 

Call me crazy but I think top 5 domestic is in play now.

if you build it in IMAX, they will come 

 

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, The Dark Alfred said:

 

Yep, and it has a great shot posting best Wednesday as well. Avatar's $4.7m to beat.

That depends on how one deals with Wednesday releases - if you count the opening Wednesday as it's first, then yeah, if you count in whole weeks (so OD and Thursday are week 0 and it starts with the Friday), then TG won't.

[DTP]

Maybe the people that didn't see Lightyear are like me:  They're interested, but not enough to see it in theaters, especially when there's other (more enticing) options they haven't seen yet.  

 

I'll admit due to work and inflation I haven't seen a movie since DS2, but I'm definitely planning on seeing TG2 and JW3 in the next week or 2, and LY is an afterthought. 

[Mulder]

Every time I see Top Gun: Maverick is 99 million away from 1 billion I'm fucking stunned. Absolutely insane that the sequel to Top Gun which had a bad reaction initially trailer-wise (Not reviews wise) with much mockery for its constant delays and skepticism over its success with a predecessor whose reception/memory (Online) has been frequently mocked and challenged has ended up being one of the best received blockbusters in ages both critically and audience wise and one of the most insane box office success stories without two huge markets even.

[JohnnyGossamer]

TGM must've been the most inflated yesterday given of the current big three it had the steepest dip from Monday to Tuesday.

 

That Tuesday hold given the Monday number and Monday being inflated is pretty good for JWD and LY to be honest. Maybe each also benefited from having the most premium screens on cheap Tuesday as well?

 

With 7.4 today for JWD v. JWFK's 11.9 second Tuesday, JWD is now tracking 20M~ behind JWFK. It will need to exceed JWFK from here on out to surpass 400M DOM. Tuesday to Tuesday drop for JWD is 50%~. Which, all things considered, isn't too bad either. 

 

Hopefully we'll see some nice holds Wednesday and Thursday for all three before Mr. Hanks comes to steal the spotlight.

 

 

Thanks for the early numbers as always EC!

[Hilpkioy]

1 hour ago, DTP said:

Maybe the people that didn't see Lightyear are like me:  They're interested, but not enough to see it in theaters, especially when there's other (more enticing) options they haven't seen yet.  

 

I'll admit due to work and inflation I haven't seen a movie since DS2, but I'm definitely planning on seeing TG2 and JW3 in the next week or 2, and LY is an afterthought. 

True despite terrible reviews, I really wanna see JWD with my own eyes in theaters. Maybe I'll leave disappointed but I was fine with the past 2 movies (both 7-7.5 out of 10 for me). I've always enjoyed turn off your brain popcorn movies.

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, Hilpkioy said:

True despite terrible reviews, I really wanna see JWD with my own eyes in theaters. Maybe I'll leave disappointed but I was fine with the past 2 movies (both 7-7.5 out of 10 for me). I've always enjoyed turn off your brain popcorn movies.

 

Honestly, if you liked Fallen Kingdom, im positive youll like Dominion as well. One just needs to know that it isnt a non-stop "Dinos in our world going rogue" movie. And with a brain (mostly) successfully turned off, it can be highly enjoyable imo.

[TiagoRodrigues]

So...is it possible for Top Gun to go back to #1 this weekend?

I have a feeling it's reaching 1b WW by sunday as well, which would be...insane. 

[Brainbug]

Just now, TiagoRodrigues said:

So...is it possible for Top Gun to go back to #1 this weekend?

I have a feeling it's reaching 1b WW by sunday as well, which would be...insane. 

 

Imo, its impossible since all signs point to a strong debut for Elvis this weekend. 40M+ should be safe for it and Top Gun has no chance getting to 40M+ as well since its coming of an inflated Holiday weekend.

 

Reaching 1B by Sunday is actually a lot more likely, but i think it will be Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

[Hilpkioy]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Imo, its impossible since all signs point to a strong debut for Elvis this weekend. 40M+ should be safe for it and Top Gun has no chance getting to 40M+ as well since its coming of an inflated Holiday weekend.

 

Reaching 1B by Sunday is actually a lot more likely, but i think it will be Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

We've seen it drop 29% from Memorial Day weekend before 😁. Although I don't see it dropping under 30m this weekend Internationally or Domestically so it's almost LOCKED for 1b this Sunday. 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Hilpkioy