A District 3 Engineer Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 (edited) somebody told me that mp2 admissions were around 2.5m. let's wait for the actuals Edited November 22, 2015 by A District 3 Engineer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 4 minutes ago, A District 3 Engineer said: somebody told me that mp2 admissions were around 2.5m. let's wait for the actuals That's the forecast for this weekend, of course we won't know the weekend admissions before Monday ;) 2.5m would mean +14%, that is a good number, particularly with 3D. Now that could be insufficient to increase over MJ1 in $, so a number slightly under $8.7m OW is possible, that would be disappointing. But let's see :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 Well, it's pretty clear that my forecasts of 8 million admissions was way too optimistic, same thing for my R$100m and $24m forecasts. Even 7 million admissions is too optimistic! Now 6m is more realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 On the contrary I think SW7 will beat our (low) expectations in Brazil, the hype seems much bigger than I thought on Brazilian forums. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 COMPARISON USA / BRAZIL Let's get back to business, I got a new idea for a new list : The US market is weighing $10.5B and the Brazilian market $0.85B...Let's make interesting comparisons in terms of proportion. So the US movie market is 12.35 times bigger than the Brazilian movie market. THE LORD OF THE KING : THE RETURN OF THE KING (dollars) USA : 377m BRAZIL : 9.9m If Brazil had the size of the US market this movie would get in that country: 122m CONCLUSION : Proportionally speaking this movie was much bigger in the USA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 COMPARISON USA / BRAZIL Let's get back to business, I got a new idea for a new list : The US market is weighing $10.5B and the Brazilian market $0.85B...Let's make interesting comparisons in terms of proportion. So the US movie market is 12.35 times bigger than the Brazilian movie market. SKYFALL (dollars) USA : 304m BRAZIL : 14.6m If Brazil had the size of the US market this movie would get in that country: 180m CONCLUSION : Proportionally speaking this movie was much bigger in the USA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 THE HUNGER GAMES MOVIES IN ADMISSIONS The Hunger Games : 1,920,000 The Hunger Games Catching Fire : 3,543,000 The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 : 4,845,000 FORECAST : The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 : 5,400,000 THE HUNGER GAMES MOVIES IN US DOLLARS The Hunger Games : $10.2m The Hunger Games Catching Fire : $17.3m The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 : $22.5m FORECAST : The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 : $18.5m THE HUNGER GAMES MOVIES IN BRAZILIAN REAIS (LOCAL CURRENCY) The Hunger Games : R$19m The Hunger Games Catching Fire : R$39.7m The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 : R$56.3m FORECAST : The Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 2 : R$70m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 43 minutes ago, Fullbuster said: COMPARISON USA / BRAZIL Let's get back to business, I got a new idea for a new list : The US market is weighing $10.5B and the Brazilian market $0.85B...Let's make interesting comparisons in terms of proportion. So the US movie market is 12.35 times bigger than the Brazilian movie market. THE LORD OF THE KING : THE RETURN OF THE KING (dollars) USA : 377m BRAZIL : 9.9m If Brazil had the size of the US market this movie would get in that country: 122m CONCLUSION : Proportionally speaking this movie was much bigger in the USA I do not think this kind of calculation is correct. You can not take the gross made by a film in 2003 and compare it with the size of the market in 2015. Either you adjust the figure made in 2003 to the size of the market in 2015, either you take the 2003 market figures. Taking this case as an example, Brazil grossed $210m in 2003 and US grossed $9.2 billion. In 2003, US market was 43.8 times bigger than Brazilian one. That implies those $9.9m made in 2003 would mean $432m in comparison. You can look in other way. ROTK grossed $9.9m in a market of $210m. That means a 4.7% of the whole market that year. A 4.7% of the whole US market in 2003 is 9,200*0.047 which give us those $432m. So ROTK was bigger in Brazil than in US taking into account the size of the markets that year. You can even look in other way. If Brazilian market has today a size of $850m, a film with the same weight than ROTK in that 2003 market would make today about $40m. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 43 minutes ago, peludo said: I do not think this kind of calculation is correct. You can not take the gross made by a film in 2003 and compare it with the size of the market in 2015. Either you adjust the figure made in 2003 to the size of the market in 2015, either you take the 2003 market figures. Taking this case as an example, Brazil grossed $210m in 2003 and US grossed $9.2 billion. In 2003, US market was 43.8 times bigger than Brazilian one. That implies those $9.9m made in 2003 would mean $432m in comparison. You can look in other way. ROTK grossed $9.9m in a market of $210m. That means a 4.7% of the whole market that year. A 4.7% of the whole US market in 2003 is 9,200*0.047 which give us those $432m. So ROTK was bigger in Brazil than in US taking into account the size of the markets that year. You can even look in other way. If Brazilian market has today a size of $850m, a film with the same weight than ROTK in that 2003 market would make today about $40m. Ahaha you're totally right. To be honest I thought about that but I was too lazy I'll change that ;) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 Terrible news : MJ1 got $7.2m during its Opening Week last year and we know that MJ2 got less than $7m OW Disappointement then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 dominated global box office at the weekend, powered by an estimated $146m international haul from 87 markets. LIONSGATE INTERNATIONAL The 32,500-screen debut outside North America marks Lionsgate’s widest ever release as the action-thriller opened top in 81 markets to deliver the fifth biggest international debut of the year-to-date. The UK led the way for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 on $17.1m from 1,560 screens, followed by China on $16.4m from 13,000, Germany on $14.4m from 661, Mexico on $8.7m from 3,472 and France on $7.1m from 833. Elsewhere, Australia generated $6.8m from 623, Brazil on $6.8m from 1,245, Russia on $6.7m from 2,400, Venezuela with yet another impressive result on $5.6m from 97 and Italy on $4.3m from 615. Sources said the debuts improved on those of Mockingjay – Part 1 in Germany, Mexico and most of Latin America. Overall, the four films in The Hunger Games franchise have produced $2.6bn worldwide to date. Mockingjay - Part 2 is scheduled to open in Spain this week as Lionsgate chiefs steered clear of this weekend’s local champion Spanish Affairs 2. http://www.screendaily.com/box-office/mockingjay-part-2-hits-247m-global/5097196.article?blocktitle=LATEST-INTERNATIONAL-BOX-OFFICE-NEWS&contentID=40071 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alisson23 Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 23 hours ago, xSabrinax said: You need to stay here more times too. I hope you're not lying. I wasn't lying Mj is a mediocre boring movie. People cares about the games. GA is tired of split movies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xSabrinax Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Fullbuster said: Brazil on $6.8m from 1,245 Currect me if I'm wrong, but, that would be: R$25M??? WTH, It has 3D EVERYWHERE! Edited November 22, 2015 by xSabrinax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 Brazil on $6.8m from 1,245 : that also means the number in local currency was much better, but not enough to offset such a terrible exchange rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 5 minutes ago, xSabrinax said: Currect me if I'm wrong, but, that would be: R$25M??? WTF, It has 3D EVERYWHERE! Indeed, and it's a great number you know : that means it grew by 47% over MJ1. 3D helped that's for sure but that also means an sizable increase in admissions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xSabrinax Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 18 minutes ago, Fullbuster said: Indeed, and it's a great number you know : that means it grew by 47% over MJ1. 3D helped that's for sure but that also means an sizable increase in admissions. But MJ1 made $23M without 3D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 9 minutes ago, xSabrinax said: But MJ1 made $23M without 3D. An MJ2 will gross less than $23m with 3D, simple Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xSabrinax Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Fullbuster said: An MJ2 will gross less than $23m with 3D, simple Wait, I remember now that Insurgent opened around R$13m and made almost 1m adm. Now, it make sense. Edited November 22, 2015 by xSabrinax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 22, 2015 Author Share Posted November 22, 2015 3 minutes ago, xSabrinax said: 3D doesn't help just a little, it helps a lot. If it just made R$25m, then it means that it dropped in admissions, and that news about 500k OD was fake. According to my calculations MJ1 grossed R$17m OW,not R$23m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xSabrinax Posted November 22, 2015 Share Posted November 22, 2015 2 minutes ago, Fullbuster said: According to my calculations MJ1 grossed R$17m OW,not R$23m No, it was R$23M. Look:Link 1 Link 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...