brazil Brazil Box Office Thread

[Fullbuster]

In several hours we'll know which movie won this Thursday : BATB again? Boss Baby? Ghost in the Shell?

 

I expect this : Boss Baby -> BATB -> GITS

However having BATB first wouldn't be a surprise at all.

[Fullbuster]

I'm disgusted guys, the ER went from $1 = R$3.07 10 days ago to R$3.15 yesterday..

 

I don't know what's happening but the ER refuses to improve, basically stagnant since February. Furious 8 won't be helped, there's still hope for GOTG2 in 1 month but I'm not optimistic..

[Fullbuster]

TOP 5 THURSDAY

 

 

 

1. BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

2. BOSS BABY

3. GHOST IN THE SHELL

4. SPLIT

5. POWER RANGERS

 

BATB has incredible legs! Great weekend to expect for sure.

 

Boss Baby seems to be going toward a decent start, $3m or $4m OW

GITS  should be close to 2-2.5m OW at first glance, decent.

 

Split has good legs, it's now doing better than PR.

[Napoleon]

9 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

I'm disgusted guys, the ER went from $1 = R$3.07 10 days ago to R$3.15 yesterday..

 

I don't know what's happening but the ER refuses to improve, basically stagnant since February. Furious 8 won't be helped, there's still hope for GOTG2 in 1 month but I'm not optimistic..

It needs to improve by November 

[Fullbuster]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

It needs to improve by November 

 

Ahaha Justice League huh?

 

I think it will improve by then, as long as the economy shows signs of improvement.

[Fullbuster]

Some people think Furious 8 will collapse or decrease a lot over Furious 7 but in Brazil I'm not so sure, the movie seems to be very anticipated there. The OW could be particularly huge! We'll know in 2 weeks.

[Fullbuster]

On 31/03/2017 at 5:16 PM, Fullbuster said:

TOP 5 THURSDAY

 

 

 

1. BEAUTY AND THE BEAST

2. BOSS BABY

3. GHOST IN THE SHELL

4. SPLIT

5. POWER RANGERS

 

BATB has incredible legs! Great weekend to expect for sure.

 

Boss Baby seems to be going toward a decent start, $3m or $4m OW

GITS  should be close to 2-2.5m OW at first glance, decent.

 

Split has good legs, it's now doing better than PR.

 

TOP 10

 

 

[Fullbuster]

For BATB I expect it to reach $30m or so, or R$93m

 

For Logan I expect it to be near $28.5m, or R$88m. I have the feeling that passing $30m could be too hard for Logan though, R$100m seems dead. Still, great run

[Fullbuster]

An interesting analysis about the Brazilian Real, and the exchange rate :

 

Quote

 

We’ve been watching the Brazilian real (BRL) for some time now, because its decline against the USD has represented quite an attractive long term short. Brazil, as many of us will remember, was once trumpeted as the ‘B’ in the BRICS countries, those emerging markets that Goldman Sachs analysts considered would rise to dominate global economic affairs in the 21st century. It was a nice idea, but 17 years into the century and many of the BRICS countries are in difficulties, with only China so far having reached a fraction of the potential ascribed to it.

Analysts are hoping that the rise in US rates will somehow lead to a return to emerging markets assets, including those denominated in the BRL. For example, a successful airport auction this month which saw three European groups awarded the rights to operate four airports in Brazil was oversubscribed. This, analysts say, points to increased appetite in the prospects for the Brazilian economy.

However, we think there are some more fundamental issues that still need to be resolved. Until these are addressed, traders could well see more opportunities to continue to short the Real.

Political corruption, at the highest level, continues to be a problem for Brazil, and can retard economic growth. Just this week Eduardo Cunha, the man who led impeachment proceedings against former Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff (also ousted on corruption charges) was himself found guilty of corruption, tax evasion and money laundering. This is the speaker of Brazil’s lower house we’re talking about, again, like the president he ousted, implicated in a deal involving state oil giant Petrobras.

Now let’s look at inflation in Brazil.

 

Inflation has been a major problem for the country. The rate of consumer price inflation started to slow down in mid-March, at 4.73%, down from 5.02%. Up until then it had been rising steadily. Brazil’s central bank reduced its base rate last month to 12.25% from 13% in recognition that inflation may be slowing down. Brazil’s target inflation rate is 4.5%. This is pretty good news, particularly when you consider that Brazil is forecast to have a trade surplus of $48 billion in 2017.

Yet you would expect Brazil to have a trade surplus of at least this. Brazil is a major exporter of raw materials and agricultural products. It should have a huge trade surplus. On top of that, anecdotal evidence from the street is not as rosy. A hedge fund acquaintance of mine visited Brazil recently and said that it is routine – routine, mind you – for stores not to expect to be paid in full for goods. Customers regularly pay a portion, even for small purchases, on an informal basis, and store owners take it on faith that the customer MAY settle their credit line in the future. There are still huge dislocations in the local economy and widespread poverty which need to be addressed, and too much wealth being retained at the upper echelons of Brazilian society.

 

Currency traders will argue that part of the value of the BRL is the price being paid for it by buyers of Brazil’s natural resources. As long as the coffee plantations and the oil fields keep working, there will be demand for the BRL, they argue. Indeed, we had considered adding the currency to our Short of the Week column, but you simply cannot discount that natural resources story. Brazil does, however, have major systemic problems within its political and financial systems. If global commodity prices do not pick up in 2017, these problems will become more assertive. Think of it like someone with a cold who is getting by with vitamin C tablets: if he runs out of vitamin C, he will fall ill quite quickly. That’s Brazil for you.

At the time of writing, the BRL was trading at 3.19464 to the USD. Over the last month it has been bouncing between 3.07 and 3.19. It seems to have seen off the worst of its weakness in 2014-15. However, as an emerging market currency it is still incredibly volatile and should only be approached by traders with the cash to keep their stops very wide of the mark. Massive single day reversals are par for the course with this one.

 

http://www.thearmchairtrader.com/news/brazilian-real-not-yet

 

 

 

 

 

That matches with the ER of the last 2 months : very volatile. It's impossible to say if the ER will improve significantly.

 

 

 

 

[Fullbuster]

An interesting analysis about the Brazilian Real, and the exchange rate :

 

Quote

 

We’ve been watching the Brazilian real (BRL) for some time now, because its decline against the USD has represented quite an attractive long term short. Brazil, as many of us will remember, was once trumpeted as the ‘B’ in the BRICS countries, those emerging markets that Goldman Sachs analysts considered would rise to dominate global economic affairs in the 21st century. It was a nice idea, but 17 years into the century and many of the BRICS countries are in difficulties, with only China so far having reached a fraction of the potential ascribed to it.

Analysts are hoping that the rise in US rates will somehow lead to a return to emerging markets assets, including those denominated in the BRL. For example, a successful airport auction this month which saw three European groups awarded the rights to operate four airports in Brazil was oversubscribed. This, analysts say, points to increased appetite in the prospects for the Brazilian economy.

However, we think there are some more fundamental issues that still need to be resolved. Until these are addressed, traders could well see more opportunities to continue to short the Real.

Political corruption, at the highest level, continues to be a problem for Brazil, and can retard economic growth. Just this week Eduardo Cunha, the man who led impeachment proceedings against former Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff (also ousted on corruption charges) was himself found guilty of corruption, tax evasion and money laundering. This is the speaker of Brazil’s lower house we’re talking about, again, like the president he ousted, implicated in a deal involving state oil giant Petrobras.

Now let’s look at inflation in Brazil.

 

Inflation has been a major problem for the country. The rate of consumer price inflation started to slow down in mid-March, at 4.73%, down from 5.02%. Up until then it had been rising steadily. Brazil’s central bank reduced its base rate last month to 12.25% from 13% in recognition that inflation may be slowing down. Brazil’s target inflation rate is 4.5%. This is pretty good news, particularly when you consider that Brazil is forecast to have a trade surplus of $48 billion in 2017.

Yet you would expect Brazil to have a trade surplus of at least this. Brazil is a major exporter of raw materials and agricultural products. It should have a huge trade surplus. On top of that, anecdotal evidence from the street is not as rosy. A hedge fund acquaintance of mine visited Brazil recently and said that it is routine – routine, mind you – for stores not to expect to be paid in full for goods. Customers regularly pay a portion, even for small purchases, on an informal basis, and store owners take it on faith that the customer MAY settle their credit line in the future. There are still huge dislocations in the local economy and widespread poverty which need to be addressed, and too much wealth being retained at the upper echelons of Brazilian society.

 

Currency traders will argue that part of the value of the BRL is the price being paid for it by buyers of Brazil’s natural resources. As long as the coffee plantations and the oil fields keep working, there will be demand for the BRL, they argue. Indeed, we had considered adding the currency to our Short of the Week column, but you simply cannot discount that natural resources story. Brazil does, however, have major systemic problems within its political and financial systems. If global commodity prices do not pick up in 2017, these problems will become more assertive. Think of it like someone with a cold who is getting by with vitamin C tablets: if he runs out of vitamin C, he will fall ill quite quickly. That’s Brazil for you.

At the time of writing, the BRL was trading at 3.19464 to the USD. Over the last month it has been bouncing between 3.07 and 3.19. It seems to have seen off the worst of its weakness in 2014-15. However, as an emerging market currency it is still incredibly volatile and should only be approached by traders with the cash to keep their stops very wide of the mark. Massive single day reversals are par for the course with this one.

 

http://www.thearmchairtrader.com/news/brazilian-real-not-yet

 

 

 

 

 

That matches with the ER of the last 2 months : very volatile. It's impossible to say if the ER will improve significantly.

 

 

 

 

[Blaze Heatnix]

Boss Baby was so good, really really funny. It had a lot of heart, in my view.

 

Kids loved this movie, here. Hell, even I laughed a lot. Great experience with my kids. Movie also got a great message of love between brothers and children. I hope it performs good.

[Fullbuster]

41 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Boss Baby was so good, really really funny. It had a lot of heart, in my view.

 

Kids loved this movie, here. Hell, even I laughed a lot. Great experience with my kids. Movie also got a great message of love between brothers and children. I hope it performs good.

 

Oh I didn't know you were a dad ^^ Or I forgot about it o_o

 

Anyway, the most important is to have fun, Boss Baby got destroyed on Rotten Tomatoes but frankly as long as we have a good time WHO CARES ?

Maybe the movie will have a good WOM and will be able to surprise us?

Edited April 2, 2017 by Fullbuster

[Fullbuster]

Just love it, so adorable

 

[Fullbuster]

Well, at least we know GITS started with less than $2.8m OW

[Blaze Heatnix]

17 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Oh I didn't know you were a dad ^^ Or I forgot about it o_o

 

Anyway, the most important is to have fun, Boss Baby got destroyed on Rotten Tomatoes but frankly as long as we have a good time WHO CARES ?

Maybe the movie will have a good WOM and will be able to surprise us?

 

 

Hahaha, it's cool. No problem. I almost didn't watch this movie ( wife would take the kids ), but I got curious and went on to watch it. I'm glad I did it. XD

 

Yeah, audiences pretty much loved the movie here in Brazil. It was a great experience. I expect this to get great word of mouth here. 

[Fullbuster]

 

BATB did extremely well this weekend as I anticipated, being the third biggest OSm arket with this terrible ER is no mean feat ^^ First movie of the year to pass $30m in Brazil, fantastic! In local currency it's very close to R$100m! It has the potential to join the top 10 all-time in local currency but that will be very close if it fails ^^

Incredible!

[Fullbuster]

 

Now that people know it will be the last one it could be more successful than expected, taht will be interesting to follow!

[Blaze Heatnix]

7 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Now that people know it will be the last one it could be more successful than expected, taht will be interesting to follow!

 

 

That was a joke ( April's Fools day ), lol. 

 

Just give a look at the release date.

[Fullbuster]

2 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

 

That was a joke ( April's Fools day ), lol. 

 

Just give a look at the release date.

 

 

OH MY....I just didn't expect them to do this, they're just so..statistical, so serious....I GOT OWNED

Edited April 2, 2017 by Fullbuster

[Tower]

6 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

 

OH MY....I just didn't expect them to do this, they're just so..statistical, so serious....I GOT OWNED

Even if you didn't know that the 9th one was already announced, I think the second part of the sentence is a giveaway. A studio won't say officially that their franchise has "run its course".