Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[Eric Atreides]

 

[LegendaryBen]

Very nice start for it. Should $20M+ easily. Closer to mid-to-high 20s. WOM is also fantastic.

[Borobudur]

Does this 3m include EA? With or without, this is amazing and pointing to a bigger OW than Candyman

[Eric Atreides]

 

[M37]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

Does this 3m include EA? With or without, this is amazing and pointing to a bigger OW than Candyman

Presume it includes EA, but those were small runs, only 150 locations for each of the 2 days. So like ~$2.7 for just Thursday 

[titanic2187]

So five movies passing 20m this weekend? I don’t believe LY can drop >60%.

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, Eric Presley said:

 

If this includes Early Access, 40M OW will be very tough. If it excludes it, $40M can still be in play.

[Alex SciChannel]

What weekdays were the EA for The Black Phone and Elvis again?

[Borobudur]

2 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

If this includes Early Access, 40M OW will be very tough. If it excludes it, $40M can still be in play.

I think it does, WB also include Batman's EA in its preview number. 

[keysersoze123]

Excellent for BP and very good for Elvis. I think BP will hit 25m and Elvis low to mid 30s. 

[M37]

2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

So five movies passing 20m this weekend? I don’t believe LY can drop >60%.

Yep, and probably 3 over $30 million 

 

But the drop from 5th to 6th (~$2.5) to 7th (<$1M) place in BO is gonna be steep 

[filmlover]

Really solid for both but especially The Black Phone, which is looking to take advantage of the lack of appealing horror movies since Scream. 5 movies with over $20M this weekend is definitely going to be a sign that we're moving closer to a more normal market again.

[BruiseCruise]

So what are the odds TGM beats Elvis?

[Jiffy]

Very impressed with those Black Phone numbers.

[vale9001]

35-40 for Elvis 

20-25 for Black Phone. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

11 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Does this 3m include EA? With or without, this is amazing and pointing to a bigger OW than Candyman

Deadline says all previews included 

[LegendaryBen]

2 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

So what are the odds TGM beats Elvis?

60-40.

[M37]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Really solid for both but especially The Black Phone, which is looking to take advantage of the lack of appealing horror movies since Scream. 5 movies with over $20M this weekend is definitely going to be a sign that we're moving closer to a more normal market again.

I would say it’s more the fact that we’re moving to a more normal release schedule that allows for multiple films to succeed. The top 10 for FSS is probably going to make close to $150M, actually below last week, and which we’ve seen a few times, but almost always propped by a single tentpole release

[vale9001]

Elvis will make the best opening post 2020 for any drama movie right?. 

[Brainbug]

Very nice for Black Phone. Horror movies (especially ones with good WOM) can have really high IM's, so lets go with mid 20s for it for now.

 

Also good for Elvis, secures 30M+ and id say 33 - 37M range for now.

 

Looking like a healthy weekend is coming up should both Top Gun and Dominion hold well. Lightyear im actually pessimistic about its possible drop, but will still be 20M+ as well ofc.