Mexico Box Office | With booming ER, Kongzilla reaches $27.7M and Kung Fu P4nd4 $33.1M.

[Carlangonz]

JULY 12^TH-14^TH WEEKEND. SPIDEY AND WODDY REPEAT POSITIONS BEFORE SIMBA’S AWAKENING. ANABELLE AND CHUCKY CO-EXIST.

 

Spider-Man: Far From Home

- Running 25.83% above Homecoming at the same point of release. In a few hours should pass Venom, by Wednesday is going to be above Homecoming and next weekend will be Sony’s highest grosser ever surpassing Hotel Transylvania 3.

- Is looking to finish o/u $600M, on par with Iron Man 3 and Aquaman. It still has a shot at beating Spider-Man 3 as highest grossing Spidey title in admissions.

 

Toy Story 4

- Now it’s second highest grosser in lc and USD. In admissions is still 3^rd but is at least topping Coco’s first run.

 

Child’s Play

- Already surpassed the entire run of last May’s Ma and opened nearly twice as big as Us. It has no direct competition besides Anabelle 3 until end of month when Extremely Wicked opens.

 

Anabelle Comes Home

- It’s now way over first Anabelle and first Conjuring. Is running only 2.78% below Anabelle: Creation and seems to comfortably pass $300M and become Warner’s biggest hit of the year.

 

#	MOVIE	WEEKEND	% CHANGE	TOTAL (MXN)	TOTAL (USD)	ADM.	TOTAL ADM.
1	Spider-Man: Far From Home	$97.9	-50,32%	$458.7	$24.02	1.5	7.7
2	Toy Story 4	$62.6	-33,89%	$1,267.7	$66.03	1.1	22.8
3	Child's Play	$23.8		$23.8	$1.25	430.8K	430.8K
4	Anabelle Comes Home	$23.1	-42,82%	$280.1	$14.54	399.2K	5.1
5	The Hustle	$7.6	-20,00%	$64.3	$3.33	106K	1
6	Poms	$6.7		$6.7	$352K	84.1K	84.1K
7	The Adventures of Jurassic Pet	$3.9		$3.9	$205K	72K	72K
8	Chicuarotes	$2.6	-27,77%	$20.5	$1.06	39.6K	343.4K
9	Dolor y Gloria	$2.4	-27,27%	$8.6	$441K	28.8K	110.5K
10	The Sun Is Also a Star	$995.7K	n/a	$6.3	$330K	17.2K	101.9K

 

This Friday opens: El Cuento de las Comadrejas, Le Livre d’ Image and The Lion King.

[Carlangonz]

17 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

If TLK opens big, could Maleficent 2 > Maleficent, @Carlangonz? I think Angelina's movie could be Live Disney's real surprise.

I think it's up to Disney. All material released so far is been good and release date couldn't be more perfect: it receives a market starving for a big family film and is one month away from Frozen 2. Add a marketing campaign as aggressive as TLK or Aladdin and there you go.

3 hours ago, danhtruong5 said:

Endgame really is in trouble now.

Nah. Admissions-wise tho...

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Now I wonder if Endgame left money on table.

No. TS saga is just THAT big in here. There's no 4Q franchise like Toy Story: it draws kids like the DM franchise and carries nostalgia for adults like SW in US/Europe. Same story in pretty much all of Latin America. 

[PKMLover]

9 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

I think it's up to Disney. All material released so far is been good and release date couldn't be more perfect: it receives a market starving for a big family film and is one month away from Frozen 2. Add a marketing campaign as aggressive as TLK or Aladdin and there you go.

Nah. Admissions-wise tho...

No. TS saga is just THAT big in here. There's no 4Q franchise like Toy Story: it draws kids like the DM franchise and carries nostalgia for adults like SW in US/Europe. Same story in pretty much all of Latin America. 

Can TS4 become the 1st movie to hit $80M and 1.5B in lc ???

[Carlangonz]

10 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Can TS4 become the 1st movie to hit $80M and 1.5B in lc ???

No, is staying second in both lc and USD

[PKMLover]

3 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

No, is staying second in both lc and USD

In that case, I think the no.1 in admissions will be easier to achieve, only need 2M admissions more.

[Purple Minion]

TS4 has the next 4 weekdays to reduce the admission gap with Endgame. With same drop as weekend's, it would add 500K tickets, earn close to $1.75M (33M lc) and pass 1.3B lc by Thursday.

 

TLK opens on Friday and I'm seeing a LOT of screens everywhere. Is it showing earlier in other Latin American markets? That would give us a good idea of its performance here.

 

 

Edited July 15, 2019 by Purple Minion

[salvador-232]

1 hour ago, Purple Minion said:

TS4 has the next 4 weekdays to reduce the admission gap with Endgame. With same drop as weekend's, it would add 500K tickets, earn close to $1.75M (33M lc) and pass 1.3B lc by Thursday.

 

TLK opens on Friday and I'm seeing a LOT of screens everywhere. Is it showing earlier in other Latin American markets? That would give us a good idea of its performance here.

 

 

South America opens on Thursday and as usual we'll have those numbers by friday. (For Argentina, Perú, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia)

 

[danhtruong5]

11 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

TS4 has the next 4 weekdays to reduce the admission gap with Endgame. With same drop as weekend's, it would add 500K tickets, earn close to $1.75M (33M lc) and pass 1.3B lc by Thursday.

 

TLK opens on Friday and I'm seeing a LOT of screens everywhere. Is it showing earlier in other Latin American markets? That would give us a good idea of its performance here.

 

 

It will be so closed to EG 

[Sunny Max]

12 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

TS4 has the next 4 weekdays to reduce the admission gap with Endgame. With same drop as weekend's, it would add 500K tickets, earn close to $1.75M (33M lc) and pass 1.3B lc by Thursday.

 

TLK opens on Friday and I'm seeing a LOT of screens everywhere. Is it showing earlier in other Latin American markets? That would give us a good idea of its performance here.

 

 

Unbelievable performance by TS4 in latin region ... 

[Carlangonz]

19 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

TS4 has the next 4 weekdays to reduce the admission gap with Endgame. With same drop as weekend's, it would add 500K tickets, earn close to $1.75M (33M lc) and pass 1.3B lc by Thursday.

 

On 7/15/2019 at 11:03 AM, PKMLover said:

In that case, I think the no.1 in admissions will be easier to achieve, only need 2M admissions more.

This is a tough call.

 

Legs for TS4 have been tremendous considering its OW. But legs for admissions have been even better. It's running better than I2 in lc (2.78x vs 2.76x) and on par in admissions (3.08x) and upcoming schedule is very similar:

 

- In its 5th weekend; I2 had to deal with HT3 and fell nearly 70% but then it bounced the week after -with a drop in the 40s- due to no competition. This is happening to TS4 with TLK opening in 3 days but it has no competition next weekend. 

 

Considering this, is completely rational to expect TS4 keeps performing like I2 which would take it past 25M admissions in the end (0.2M above EG).

 

The key TS4 needs in order to come close to beat Endgame in admissions is have amazing late legs (like I2) or get super cheap tickets (like EG). 

[Purple Minion]

Several midnight shows popping up for TLK, ~40% sold on the random markets I checked online.

[Carlangonz]

THE LION KING PREVIEW. SIMBA IS READY TO SOAR INTO RECORD-BREAKING NUMBERS.

• Screens: 5,200+
  Fourth widest release ever below Endgame, Infinity War and Toy Story 4
• Opening Day: $75M-$85M ($3.94M-$4.46M)
  8^th/9^th highest OD ever in the industry
• Opening Weekend: $260M-$290M ($13.6M-$15.2M)
  6^th/5^th highest OW ever in the industry/Highest for a July opener    
• Opening Weekend (Admissions): 4M-4.7M admissions
  8^th-10^th biggest OW of all-time in the industry

Edited July 17, 2019 by Carlangonz

[Carlangonz]

Note to The Lion King forecast:

 

Presales are hard to compare: they’re far behind Woddy & Buzz but they’re well above Fallen Kingdom and since day one they’ve been selling faster and better than Aladdin and on par with Incredibles 2. Nevertheless comps come with many problems: neither of the above mentioned titles held midnights or opened on holidays, Jurassic World opened on a Thursday and Incredibles 2 held Thursday night previews but at the same time presales were more front-loaded and played more in the lines of a superhero title rather than a family movie; the last thing this is something I didn't put much attention to when did my forecast for Toy Story 4 in part cause I thought it would skew older like I2 but that's when I realized there's no 4-Quad like TS and I'm not sure TLK can reach those heights.  

 

With the precedent of movies like Toy Story 4 and the Jurassic World entries being extremely back-loaded compared to presales this one could climb to somewhere between mid-high 200s and even come close to the magic land of $300M+. I'm playing with mid-high 200s in case anything is off with walk-ups. 

Edited July 17, 2019 by Carlangonz

[Purple Minion]

Mis antenitas de vinil also point to mid-200s lc. Sunday hold will be key.

[Carlangonz]

I was doing some digging and found that July's biggest OD still belongs to DH2. $74.2M back in 2011 which is huge because it was the biggest OD of all-time until F7. TLK on its way to break the record.  

[Carlangonz]

NUMBER OF SHOWS AT SOME KEY LOCATIONS COMPARED WITH ENDGAME AND TOY STORY 4

 

	A:EG	TS4	TLK	A:EG*	TLK*
Cinépolis Perisur	61	62	62	84	72
Cinépolis Buenavista	48**	45	45	65	52
Cinépolis Universidad	44**	63	56	63	64
Cinépolis Galerías Guadalajara	50	58	57	72	67
Cinépolis Tlaquepaque	43	53	51	59	58
Cinépolis Angelópolis	56	56	54	85	62
Cinépolis Galerías Pachuca	56	70	60	90	69
Cinépolis Plaza Aragón	47	58	55	70	62

 

* Including midnights

** It ended up with more shows at the end

[Carlangonz]

Final hours before opening TLK is gaining a lot in sales. Midnights were nothing like a SH title in the recent days but they're experiencing huge jumps the last hours.

 

I'll wait to see results of Chile, Argentina and Brazil tomorrow before correcting my ceiling but with midnights picking great steam and Sat/Sun presales pointing incredible we're going to witness another massive weekend. 

[XXR vs XXR]

33 minutes ago, Carlangonz said:

Final hours before opening TLK is gaining a lot in sales. Midnights were nothing like a SH title in the recent days but they're experiencing huge jumps the last hours.

 

I'll wait to see results of Chile, Argentina and Brazil tomorrow before correcting my ceiling but with midnights picking great steam and Sat/Sun presales pointing incredible we're going to witness another massive weekend. 

 

Over 300m lc? Over 350m? Over TS4? TWICE AS BIG AS ENDGAME?!? 

 

[Carlangonz]

18 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

TWICE AS BIG AS ENDGAME?!? 

If you mean Endgame's lifetime gross then yes 

[Purple Minion]

Never saw this coming, amount of shows is huge. Huge. I'll lose my mind if we have another billion movie this year.