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ChipDerby

Our Derby Means Death | Week 28

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1 8wombi7 91.087% 82.114% 92.084% 10.959% 11 10
2 Legion and Thunder 87.845% 85.973% 88.053% 7.717% 10 10
3 IdahoJacket 83.921% 76.628% 84.732% 3.793% 9 10
4 StormbreakerXXR 81.728% 82.235% 81.672% 1.600% 8 10
5 M37 81.057% 85.385% 80.577% 0.929% 7 10
6 Grebacio 80.566% 75.404% 81.139% 0.438% 6 10
7 datpepper 78.636% 79.432% 78.548% -1.492% 5 10
8 Sandro Mazzola 76.729% 94.159% 74.792% -3.399% 4 10
9 TalismanRing 76.647% 74.759% 76.857% -3.481% 3 10
10 glassfairy 75.670% 68.405% 76.477% -4.458% 2 10
11 Goldenhour36 67.522% 66.386% 67.648% -12.606% 1 10
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For some reason, my Derby kept glitching about 10 minutes before close and didn’t lock in my final update. Some kind of red/yellow script looking screen? Idk. 
 

30 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

TFW the show count post drops 4 mins before the deadline and you miss it 😛 


Yeeaaa those EEAO and Malcolm’s List numbers would have been nice to see beforehand lol. I was able to hand count Marcel off of Atom’s website at 37 theaters but that’s the one the glitch f’ed up for me :( 

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Don’t worry guys, having been essentially pantsed by Thor/July 4th week ticket sale shenanigans, didn’t have the heart for more than half-assed forecasts this week

Bored Paul Rudd GIF 

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On 7/8/2022 at 7:38 AM, StormbreakerXXR said:

For some reason, my Derby kept glitching about 10 minutes before close and didn’t lock in my final update. Some kind of red/yellow script looking screen? Idk. 
 


Yeeaaa those EEAO and Malcolm’s List numbers would have been nice to see beforehand lol. I was able to hand count Marcel off of Atom’s website at 37 theaters but that’s the one the glitch f’ed up for me :( 

 

I updated the number.

 

For everyone that doesn't know.  If you have site issues that cause you to screw up a number PM me immediately with the number.  Generally I'll fix it in a normal weekly game.

 

If I feel this is being abused I might decline to change it so it's best to put in numbers you are happy with before the deadline and update at the end.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

 

I updated the number.

 

For everyone that doesn't know.  If you have site issues that cause you to screw up a number PM me immediately with the number.  Generally I'll fix it in a normal weekly game.

 

If I feel this is being abused I might decline to change it so it's best to put in numbers you are happy with before the deadline and update at the end.

 

 

 

Thank you Andy. I promise I won't abuse it. I messaged you right when it locked after I tried fixing it but it wouldn't take me to the screen until it locked. I will screenshot the error I'm getting, as it keeps happening and maybe you can look into it? It's happened before but I've just ate it in the past. 

 

 

 

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On 7/9/2022 at 4:50 AM, Legion and Thunder said:

Feel good about winning the movies over 3M, don’t like my chances on the 200-400k’ers. All eyez on marcel

Don't think Marcel is going to reach close to $490K after a $102K Friday (which likely includes some Thursday preview gross too). EEAOA seems to finally hit its final descent as well

 

I know it was mentioned last week, but going to ask again: can we start limiting the number of titles that require predictions? The rest of the summer through probably October is just going to be wasteland below the 6-8th slot, and at that sub $1M and especially sub $500K level, its just a crapshoot, where a 50K difference can be like a 20-25% swing, as much as missing on say TGM this week by $3-$4M

I know the response was that it throws off averages, but couldn't those empty slots just default to whatever the individual's holdover score is for the predicted movies? So if there were 1 new release and 6 holdovers for the week, and I scored 90% on those 6, then slots 8-10 just get defaulted to a 90% score as well? Wouldn't affect averages that way, though I believe would decrease the Diff from Avg score, but that seems fair given there would be fewer weekly opportunities to make up (or lose) ground on other players.

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On 7/8/2022 at 8:14 AM, M37 said:

Don’t worry guys, having been essentially pantsed by Thor/July 4th week ticket sale shenanigans, didn’t have the heart for more than half-assed forecasts this week

Bored Paul Rudd GIF 

You’re probably top 2.   
 

 

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13 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

You’re probably top 2.   
 

 

Despicable Me Reaction GIF
 

I literally started to do the math, said this post-holiday weekend/inflated weekday shit is too much work, and just ballparked the top 7. The only ones I tried on were the low end, because there’s less margin for error 

 

And to think I almost put in $145.73 for Thor, just to see if anyone would notice (JWD was $145.75 😉) but decided to go with a “real” prediction 

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3 hours ago, M37 said:

Don't think Marcel is going to reach close to $490K after a $102K Friday (which likely includes some Thursday preview gross too). EEAOA seems to finally hit its final descent as well

 

I know it was mentioned last week, but going to ask again: can we start limiting the number of titles that require predictions? The rest of the summer through probably October is just going to be wasteland below the 6-8th slot, and at that sub $1M and especially sub $500K level, its just a crapshoot, where a 50K difference can be like a 20-25% swing, as much as missing on say TGM this week by $3-$4M

I know the response was that it throws off averages, but couldn't those empty slots just default to whatever the individual's holdover score is for the predicted movies? So if there were 1 new release and 6 holdovers for the week, and I scored 90% on those 6, then slots 8-10 just get defaulted to a 90% score as well? Wouldn't affect averages that way, though I believe would decrease the Diff from Avg score, but that seems fair given there would be fewer weekly opportunities to make up (or lose) ground on other players.

Good news is that next weekend we will have 9 films above 1M.

Hope the #10 movie, which will do sub 1M doesn't hurt my derby as it did this week.

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On 7/10/2022 at 5:45 AM, M37 said:

Don't think Marcel is going to reach close to $490K after a $102K Friday (which likely includes some Thursday preview gross too). EEAOA seems to finally hit its final descent as well

 

I know it was mentioned last week, but going to ask again: can we start limiting the number of titles that require predictions? The rest of the summer through probably October is just going to be wasteland below the 6-8th slot, and at that sub $1M and especially sub $500K level, its just a crapshoot, where a 50K difference can be like a 20-25% swing, as much as missing on say TGM this week by $3-$4M

I know the response was that it throws off averages, but couldn't those empty slots just default to whatever the individual's holdover score is for the predicted movies? So if there were 1 new release and 6 holdovers for the week, and I scored 90% on those 6, then slots 8-10 just get defaulted to a 90% score as well? Wouldn't affect averages that way, though I believe would decrease the Diff from Avg score, but that seems fair given there would be fewer weekly opportunities to make up (or lose) ground on other players.

 

I mean, wouldn't giving everyone 90% for blank movies be the same as everyone predicting and getting 0%?

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35 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

I mean, wouldn't giving everyone 90% for blank movies be the same as everyone predicting and getting 0%?

It wouldn’t be a flat 90% it would just be whatever the individual’s holdover score for the week was for the empty slots. Keeps average the same, as if it were 10 total 

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I just don't think that's possible, as the Derby isn't designed to just have blank spots as placeholders, and then the additional calculation it would take to manually adjust every single one of those lines. 

 

I totally get that it's going to be soon that the top 10 is going to look rough at the bottom, but there's really nothing we can do on our end to account for that. I can ask Andy if it's possible to just do 8 movies (or whatever), but I remember from when I ran the WOKJ Derby that even just a single week of missing a movie can break these systems. (In WOKJs case, I don't believe the total/yearly/monthly averages work to this day because of a missed week)

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4 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

I can ask Andy if it's possible to just do 8 movies (or whatever)

 

The answer is....

 

Spoiler

Maybe.  In theory it should work but it's never been tested and has a chance to break the whole week

 

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