THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER WEEKEND THREAD | The hammer swings down with 144.2 DOM, 302 WW, the 3rd-biggest 2022 opening | Minions 46.1, TGM 15.5, Elvis 11.2, JWD 8.6

[grey ghost]

Like it or not superhero movies account for one-third of annual box office revenue.

 

If they die it kind of leaves a void.

 

It's an IP world. You can't sell billions in toys/rides/collectibles/clothes from something like Gladiator or What Women Want. You can't make endless sequels or sell a ton of DVD's either.

 

So if you get rid of superheroes, what takes their place?

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

70m should be close to 160m

 

Ummm, how?

 

Saturdays for the summer don't tend to rise from true Friday, and true Friday is $41M if the estimate holds...

[Menor the Destroyer]

Deadline number doesn't matter. 

[LegendaryBen]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

WOM is mixed

Agreed. It's more like Eternals than Shang Chi. If it opens under $150M, which is quite possible, $400M is very slim.

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

Deadline number doesn't matter. 

 

130-140 is a 4.4-4.8 multiplier. I mean DS did 5.2. Surely can expect something with a 5.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Ronin46 said:

 

130-140 is a 4.4-4.8 multiplier. I mean DS did 5.2. Surely can expect something with a 5.

 

We may have not counted the alure of seeing Thor on Thorsday combined with the WOM that came after...

 

I mean, Charlie has been warning us he thought these early Thursdays could destroy weekend multipliers...maybe the warning is finally true...

Edited July 8, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Sandro Mazzola]

4 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

70m should be close to 160m

 

Deadline is low off that T.Fri, you are too high.  

I suspect it'll come in right at @M37's club line.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

70m should be close to 160m

This is summer. There wont be any saturday increase for this movie. Plus I am not sure it will have a great sunday hold either with reception not being great and saturated release. 

 

That said the interesting thing in DL is Postrak report. only 4% kids tickets and so we need to make only tiny adjustment to $value. Plus this makes me think it will have not so great cinemascore(not that that is more relevant than Postrak). 

 

Quote

The Thursday night preview audience exits from Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak weren’t through the roof for an MCU movie last night (which is when all the die-hards come out) notching 3 1/2 stars from general audiences and a 63% definite recommend, and 3 1/2 stars from kids under 12. Parents liked it a bit better at 4 stars. General audiences repped 84% of all ticket buyers last night with 9% parents and 4% kids. The audience skewed 58% men, 42% females with 53% between 18-34. Men over 25 were the bulk at 34%, followed by women over 25 at 25%, men under 25 at 24% and women under 25 at 16%.

 

[BruiseCruise]

If Deadline's $41m true friday number is accurate and it has the same sat-sun drops as DS2 then it would come it at 145m but since its Summer, I would probably say $155-160m is more likely unless WOM really kicks in early

[TwoMisfits]

Highlighting Thursday night demo draw from Deadline...I would like to see the other breakdowns, but Marvel is losing families, at least on preview day (even with previews at 2pm)...and they didn't really steal much of the 13-17 from Minions, so Minions will probably stay strong this weekend since that group was an astounding number last weekend...

 

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office-thor-love-and-thunder-1235060300/

 

"General audiences repped 84% of all ticket buyers last night with 9% parents and 4% kids. The audience skewed 58% men, 42% females with 53% between 18-34. Men over 25 were the bulk at 34%, followed by women over 25 at 25%, men under 25 at 24% and women under 25 at 16%."

[ZeeSoh]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Ummm, how?

 

Saturdays for the summer don't tend to rise from true Friday, and true Friday is $41M if the estimate holds...

@katnisscinnaplex’s early projection for Saturday is 43.5. They were very close with their Friday projections too. Granted its very early for Saturday so it’s definitely gonna change. But 43.5m Saturday should get it to 150m I think. 
 

This is assuming that the early Deadline number is accurate and more often than not it isn’t. Walkups were very good on Thursday so there is a possibility we could see that for Friday as well. If true then early Friday numbers will be underpredicted. 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is summer. There wont be any saturday increase for this movie. Plus I am not sure it will have a great sunday hold either with reception not being great and saturated release. 

 

That said the interesting thing in DL is Postrak report. only 4% kids tickets and so we need to make only tiny adjustment to $value. Plus this makes me think it will have not so great cinemascore(not that that is more relevant than Postrak). 

 

 

 

To be 9% parents, 4% kids, you had exactly 2 parents for every 1 kid...so they didn't want to pay the babysitter.

 

Vs kids begging to see Thor.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

@katnisscinnaplex’s early projection for Saturday is 43.5. They were very close with their Friday projections too. Granted its very early for Saturday so it’s definitely gonna change. But 43.5m Saturday should get it to 150m I think. 
 

This is assuming that the early Deadline number is accurate and more often than not it isn’t. Walkups were very good on Thursday so there is a possibility we could see that for Friday as well. If true then early Friday numbers will be underpredicted. 

 

Right, but he said at least $160M, not maybe $150M...

 

And really, if Deadline's numbers stick...

 

$29

$41

$43.5

$34.8 (only 20% drop - REALLY unlikely with no families showing)

 

Only gets you to $148.3M...

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Highlighting Thursday night demo draw from Deadline...I would like to see the other breakdowns, but Marvel is losing families, at least on preview day (even with previews at 2pm)...and they didn't really steal much of the 13-17 from Minions, so Minions will probably stay strong this weekend since that group was an astounding number last weekend...

 

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office-thor-love-and-thunder-1235060300/

 

"General audiences repped 84% of all ticket buyers last night with 9% parents and 4% kids. The audience skewed 58% men, 42% females with 53% between 18-34. Men over 25 were the bulk at 34%, followed by women over 25 at 25%, men under 25 at 24% and women under 25 at 16%."

Thor just skews older for some reason, Ragnarok also was quite heavy on adults, low family audiences and heavily over 25. 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[BruiseCruise]

For Comparison:  Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness earned 81% positive, 4 stars, and 71% definite recommend

[Ryan Reynolds]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Right, but he said at least $160M, not maybe $150M...

 

And really, if Deadline's numbers stick...

 

$29

$41

$43.5

$34.8 (only 20% drop - REALLY unlikely with no families showing)

 

Only gets you to $148.3M...

only 3m higher than Jurassic World Dominion despite 10m more Friday Total ?

[Krissykins]

Those audience exit results don’t look very promising. I’m in no rush to see the film, but people I know who’ve seen it here have loved it. 
 

Mind you, lots of people assured us that Dominion was getting a B because of its rotten tomatoes audience score and it managed an A-. 
 

Still thinking this gets an A-, because otherwise it would be MCU’s third B range grade in less than a year. 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Krissykins

[BruiseCruise]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Those audience exit results don’t look very promising. I’m in no rush to see the film, but people I know who’ve seen it here have loved it. 
 

Mind you, lots of people assured us that Dominion was getting a B because of its rotten tomatoes audience score and it managed an A-. 
 

Still thinking this gets an A-. 

I mean that Dominion Cinemascore was clearly just bad sampling

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, BruiseCruise said:

I mean that Dominion Cinemascore was clearly just bad sampling

 

Lets leave that 1 alone.

[keysersoze123]

While I dont have any numbers to share, but anecdotally looking at few big theaters, walkups look promising. So let us wait for @EmpireCity to provide an update. Deadline early numbers have little value.