Black Derby | Week 30

[AndyLL]

24 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

It's really not a big deal.  I only started back playing last week so if it's a pain then don't worry about it.  Sorry for the inconvenience!

It's done.

 

Quote

I only started back playing last week

 

You account was created to use a password different from the forum password.  Do you use twitter or facebook to log into the forums or do you use email/password?

 

Try going to:

https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Account/Login.aspx?Logout=true

 

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

19 minutes ago, AndyLL said:

It's done.

 

 

You account was created to use a password different from the forum password.  Do you use twitter or facebook to log into the forums or do you use email/password?

 

Try going to:

https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Account/Login.aspx?Logout=true

 

 

 

Thank you!  I've only used email to log in, but my password has been saved in my browser for as long as I can remember.  I'll keep that in mind if it happens again.  Thanks for your help!

[ChipDerby]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

Just so I understand, is this basically a pre-registration requirement for each week, where only those who have entered something by deadline A can then edit before final deadline B? 

 

Oh no, lol. It is more of a suggestion to at least get a prediction in. Say I update the Derby on Tuesday at 11AM EST. At some point Tuesday, go in and put in initial predictions. Then as the deadline approaches (we're thinking of moving it up to Thursday mid-day) you would make changes. But if you forget to come back to it on Thursday, at least you have something predicted.

 

The tracking/sales numbers are seemingly coming in right before the deadline, so in theory it's helping out people that are available when they come out.

 

The biggest snag will be the question of is 48 hours from the Derby opening to it locking enough time? And on weeks after a holiday, sometimes numbers don't come in until very late Tuesday, so that would give people even less time.

 

Just trying to make the game a little more competitive for all, but also not too restrictive.

[XXR vs XXR]

As expected, the scoring is very high this week. The winner will likely be over 95% with 6-7 people over 90%. 

[M37]

How does Lightyear lose 38% of locations and 53% of its shows ... and yet only drop 49% for the weekend?

[Legion Again]

As someone who is always free in the 10 mins before the current deadline, I do feel like it provides an advantage and I would be in favor of an earlier lock.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[XXR vs XXR]

30 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

As someone who is always free in the 10 mins before the current deadline, I do feel like it provides an advantage and I would be in favor of an earlier lock.

Ehh, I don’t see how this fixes the issue though. Let’s say we make the deadline midnight EST on Thursday. Then it’s the same level or fair/unfair and pressing the cutoff time, just at a different time. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Ecks Ecks Are

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, Ecks Ecks Are said:

Ehh, I don’t see how this fixes the issue though. Let’s say we make the deadline midnight EST on Thursday. Then it’s the same level or fair/unfair and pressing the cutoff time, just at a different time. 

Well, some periods of the week tend to have important new info, and some don’t. There are always people free immediately before the deadline and some who aren’t, true. But generally the earlier the deadline is, the less valuable info  the immediate pre deadline period has. 
 

Also full disclosure I think predicting from farther away&therefore with less info is just harder->more skill testing->more fun.

[M37]

20 minutes ago, Ecks Ecks Are said:

Ehh, I don’t see how this fixes the issue though. Let’s say we make the deadline midnight EST on Thursday. Then it’s the same level or fair/unfair and pressing the cutoff time, just at a different time. 

I’m honestly a bit confused as to what advantage is seeking to be eliminated? What data is coming out in those last few hours that gives some people a leg up?

 

For the holdovers, the most crucial pieces of information (IMO) are the Wed dailies and theater counts, which aren’t released until late afternoon on Thursday (EST), and for new releases, the preview gross, which isn’t usually out before current game lock. 
Now if one wants to argue that the tracking thread has gotten too good, that previews (at least for bigger movies) are “known” within a range, so it takes some “fun” and variability out of projecting new releases, I’d buy that argument … but by pushing the deadline to Thursday day, instead creates a new limited time window of opportunity to incorporate new data (for holdovers), or going really early on Thursday (like noon), before any of the last crucial data points are available, which would serve to remove some level of skill from the game

 

It just feels to me that the current lock time is pretty close to the least unfair as it could be, having like a 12 hour window from when final tracking numbers start to come in until guesses have to be locked in. Even for Nope this week, there was enough uncertainty that though tracking pretty much nailed Thursday, there was still a $10M range (+\-10%) on forecasts, with the final (barely) landing outside that range. Same thing happened with Thor too. Sometimes having more information can be a disadvantage (see LY, where I lowered my guess on Friday morning based on showtime counts)

[Legion Again]

The showtime counts are the main info really. Even moving up an hour or two would knock that out.

[M37]

3 hours ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Well, some periods of the week tend to have important new info, and some don’t. There are always people free immediately before the deadline and some who aren’t, true. But generally the earlier the deadline is, the less valuable info  the immediate pre deadline period has. 
 

Also full disclosure I think predicting from farther away&therefore with less info is just harder->more skill testing->more fun.

I would agree that predicting from further away is harder, and probably more “fun” in that opens the game and competition up to more people … but not because it requires more skill, but the opposite

 

That’s adding extra layers of uncertainty, and sometimes those +/- 5/10/20% variabilities will cancel out, and sometimes they’ll compound on each other. One can get the “right” answer the “wrong” way, like expecting Thor to have a $24M Thur and 6x IM would have netted a nearly exactly correct guess ($144M), better than someone who used $30M/5.2x closer on both details, but off in the same direction, so a higher final miss 

Edited July 26, 2022 by M37

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, Legion and Thunder said:

The showtime counts are the main info really. Even moving up an hour or two would knock that out.

 

"Post showtimes earlier", they said

[Sandro Mazzola]

On 7/24/2022 at 4:20 PM, Ecks Ecks Are said:

As expected, the scoring is very high this week. The winner will likely be over 95% with 6-7 people over 90%.