Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — International Box Office Thread

[Issac Newton]

Estimated international debuts for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever include:

U.K. - $15.0M
France - $13.7M
Mexico - $12.8M
S. Korea - $8.9M
Brazil - $7.1M
Australia - $6.8M
India - $6.4M
Indonesia - $6.1M
Germany - $6.1M
Italy - $4.2M
Japan - $3.5M#WakandaForever #BoxOffice

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) November 13, 2022

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

Probably looking at $375-400M internationally and $825-875M worldwide. 

[Sophia Jane]

I think 850-900m is pretty good target

[Borobudur]

What happened to South Korea? The country used to be biggest hub for MCU.  France and India overperform IMO.  

[Issac Newton]

Top 10 Comp (BP vs BP2)

 

#US &#Canada 202M/180M -11%

#UK 24.9M/15M -40%

#France 7.6M/13.7M +80%

#Mexico 9.2M-12.8M +39%

#Korea 25.3M/8.8M -65%

#Brazil 9.5M/7.1M -34%

#Australia 8.3M/6.8M -18%

#India 3.9M/6.4M +64%

#Indonesia 6.2M/6.1M -2%

#Germany 5.9M/6.1M +3%

[Heretic]

14 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Top 10 Comp (BP vs BP2)

 

#US &#Canada 202M/180M -11%

#UK 24.9M/15M -40%

#France 7.6M/13.7M +80%

#Mexico 9.2M-12.8M +39%

#Korea 25.3M/8.8M -65%

#Brazil 9.5M/7.1M -34%

#Australia 8.3M/6.8M -18%

#India 3.9M/6.4M +64%

#Indonesia 6.2M/6.1M -2%

#Germany 5.9M/6.1M +3%

For UK, BP had a 6 day opening compared to 3 for BP2 so not comparable at all. Also ER is worse now than 2018, like most countries.  On a like for like basis, this opening is probably about 10-20% below what BP would have made with a 3 day opening, on par with US/Canada/Australia. 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Heretic

[Issac Newton]

2 minutes ago, Heretic said:

For UK, BP had a 6 day opening compared to 3 for BP2 so not comparable at all. Also ER is worse now than 2018, like most countries. 

UK Analyst Luiz shared it in a Tweet... Sorry I wasn't aware of UK Opening Strategy....

 

 

#BlackPanther/#WakandaForever Top10 Comp#US & #Canada 202M/180M -11%#UK 24.9M/15M -40%#France 7.6M/13.7M +80%#Mexico 9.2M-12.8M +39%#Korea 25.3M/8.8M -65%#Brazil 9.5M/7.1M -34%#Australia 8.3M/6.8M -18%#India 3.9M/6.4M +64%#Indonesia 6.2M/6.1M -2%#Germany 5.9M/6.1M +3%

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) November 13, 2022

[The Dark Alfred]

Expected numbers overall. I'd say it is a bit disappointing to finish below THOR internationally, but domestic makes up for it.

Don't think WOM is not strong enough to push it over 900m WW. 850m sounds about right.

[Marcos12]

It will probably make $500m  less than the previous movie, I think it's the biggest sequel BO drop in the history of  superhero movies ( I don't count movies released during the apex of pandemic period like WW84, for obvious reasons).

 

If Black Panther with good reviews and word of mouth can only reach around $830m WW, there's no way a movie like Marvels (which I doubt will have better WOM) makes more than $700m WW, I think only Aquaman 2 and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (among superhero movies) have a good chance of making $800m+ WW in 2023, and  I wouldn't be surprised if they both fail to hit $800m+ too.

 

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Marcos12

[MG10]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Top 10 Comp (BP vs BP2)

 

#US &#Canada 202M/180M -11%

#UK 24.9M/15M -40%

#France 7.6M/13.7M +80%

#Mexico 9.2M-12.8M +39%

#Korea 25.3M/8.8M -65%

#Brazil 9.5M/7.1M -34%

#Australia 8.3M/6.8M -18%

#India 3.9M/6.4M +64%

#Indonesia 6.2M/6.1M -2%

#Germany 5.9M/6.1M +3%

 

In Italy it opened with $3.5M, so 4.2M should be a +20% even if I would prefer to use euros to have a better comparison (so I'll have to wait for tomorrow's data) 

[DC Rich]

What international markets does WF have left to open in?  Will any of them be that big? 

[keysersoze123]

France number is super impressive. WOW.  Otherwise with dollar being so strong and no China/Russia, its doing as well as posisble. 

 

17 minutes ago, DC Rich said:

What international markets does WF have left to open in?  Will any of them be that big? 

IMDB has not listed any more markets to release. But not sure if it released in Saudi Arabia. @charlie Jatinder do you know if any more markets are there to open?

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

France number is super impressive. WOW.  Otherwise with dollar being so strong and no China/Russia, its doing as well as posisble. 

 

IMDB has not listed any more markets to release. But not sure if it released in Saudi Arabia. @charlie Jatinder do you know if any more markets are there to open?

Nope it released in all main markets. There may be some minor nation left which won't be doing much.

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Nope it released in all main markets. There may be some minor nation left which won't be doing much.

What did it do in Saudi Arabia? I thought that market is becoming quite big?

[Issac Newton]

EDITED! Edited November 14, 2022 by Issac Newton

[DC Rich]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Nope it released in all main markets. There may be some minor nation left which won't be doing much.

I know it's way early but what is WF looking at for an OS total at this point. 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

UK Analyst Luiz shared it in a Tweet... Sorry I wasn't aware of UK Opening Strategy....

 

 

Yikes. If you are following box office for years now, atleast compare things in same time frame and local currency. It's not hard.

 

UK: +20% (3 days vs 6 days of BP1, used FSS of BP1 for comparison, about par otherwise)

France: + 117%

Mexico: +46% (5 days vs 3 days of BP1, about par otherwise)

Korea: -65% (taking admits, gross drop is 55%)

Brazil: +18%

Australia: -9%

India: +104%

Indonesia: +13%

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

What did it do in Saudi Arabia? I thought that market is becoming quite big?

It's a weird market, never know what opens and what not. NWH is biggest opener at $5M, BP 2 opened to around $1M, smaller than Black Adam.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, DC Rich said:

I know it's way early but what is WF looking at for an OS total at this point. 

Will start expectations at $400-425M. Let's see if legs get any better.

[Borobudur]

I don't understand why Disney/Marvel always give lesser territories breakdown compared to others.