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Bruce

Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

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Europe will be down a LOT from first film due to markets shrinking&terrible ERs. Japan probably down a ton as well with current ER. SEA, middle east and south america will probably be up. China could do like 500M-1B if release happens.

 

Overall variance is too ridicolous for me to make predictions esp. without a confirmation about china release.

Edited by JustLurking
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International will always be a battle between Market Growth, Global Inflation and Exchange Rates.

 

If China allows Avatar the same opportunity Endgame had then I'll definitely say the current climate is better than it was in 2009 for box office

Edited by IronJimbo
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In Spain, Avatar grossed 77M€ and in 2009 that was = 107M$

Today 77M€ means 78M$ LOL

 

The bad Er will cost around 200M$ just at eurozone 

 

And I think Avatar 2 will have BIG drops vs Avatar 1 in Europe, maybe -50% !!!

Asia and Latam will increase but I can't see this above 2B

 

My estimate: 600M Domestic + 600 OS-C + 300 CHINA = 1,5B

Edited by jma22
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2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Europe will be down a LOT from first film due to markets shrinking&terrible ERs. Japan probably down a ton as well with current ER. SEA, middle east and south america will probably be up. China could do like 500M-1B if release happens.

 

Overall variance is too ridicolous for me to make predictions esp. without a confirmation about china release.

 

Indeed, some time ago I made a post about the highest grossing movies of all time in EU countries and UK (link) and Avatar grossed an insane 940M dollars, this time it will be lucky to pass the 500M...

 

For China it could even gross 1 billion but it all depends on their absurdly restrictive covid measures, if in autumn and winter they continue to put in lockdown their biggest cities every 5k cases it will ruin Avatar's incredible potential...

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As of today, I’m going $850M OS-C-R. I’m going to assume there’s no way Disney is putting it in Russia. China is difficult to judge between CCP irrationality, exchange rates and COVID lockdowns. If it gets released, I can see everything from $200M to $1B. But for my official estimate today let’s go with…

 

$650M DOM

$850M OS-C-R

$600M China

 

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14 hours ago, jma22 said:

In Spain, Avatar grossed 77M€ and in 2009 that was = 107M$

Today 77M€ means 78M$ LOL

 

The bad Er will cost around 200M$ just at eurozone 

 

And I think Avatar 2 will have BIG drops vs Avatar 1 in Europe, maybe -50% !!!

Asia and Latam will increase but I can't see this above 2B

 

My estimate: 600M Domestic + 600 OS-C + 300 CHINA = 1,5B

I do not get the laughs at this post. It is EXACTLY what happens with ERs. Avatar, beyond the 3D boost, had some of the best ERs ever (1€=1.45$). And now the sequel, if nothing changes along next months, will have to face some of the worst ERs ever (similar to 2001-2002 period). And I do not see A2 selling 9.5 million admissions again in Spain, for example. In fact, I do not see nothing selling that amount of admissions right now. Pretty agree that drop in admissions in Europe can be huge.

 

Said this, I do not get your Chinese estimation. The first film tripled the previous all time record ($200m against $65 of TF2). China LOVED Avatar and I do not see any reason why it would "only" increase a 50%. It should challenge EG figures. Maybe more. In fact, if there is a HLW film able to make $1b in a single market is Avatar 2 in China.

 

I could see right now:

DOM: 700

OS-C: 700

China: 800

WW: $2.2b

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12 minutes ago, peludo said:

I do not get the laughs at this post. It is EXACTLY what happens with ERs. Avatar, beyond the 3D boost, had some of the best ERs ever (1€=1.45$). And now the sequel, if nothing changes along next months, will have to face some of the worst ERs ever (similar to 2001-2002 period). And I do not see A2 selling 9.5 million admissions again in Spain, for example. In fact, I do not see nothing selling that amount of admissions right now. Pretty agree that drop in admissions in Europe can be huge.

 

Said this, I do not get your Chinese estimation. The first film tripled the previous all time record ($200m against $65 of TF2). China LOVED Avatar and I do not see any reason why it would "only" increase a 50%. It should challenge EG figures. Maybe more. In fact, if there is a HLW film able to make $1b in a single market is Avatar 2 in China.

 

I could see right now:

DOM: 700

OS-C: 700

China: 800

WW: $2.2b

 

why it was laugh worthy? Well.

 

They said 600M Domestic, which is not laugh worthy at all. This is a reasonable prediction and to me just means they don't buy the hype (which is misguided but thats a different issue).


The :hahaha: worthy part is how on earth you go from $600m DOM to $600M OS -C.... WHAT?!

 

The first movie made ~$750m DOM and ~$1.8B OS - C. ER's are bad but not THAT bad, christ. Then theres inflation + market growths.

 

Then of course the $300m China number is bizarre as you've already pointed out.

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Please consider Top Gun Marvick doing 700m OS-C with this terrible ER,you guys forget it?you mean Avatar will doing silmiar to TGM?even worse than TGM?please tell me any market which A2 will lower than TGM?

Avatar at least 1000m OS-C,maybe more.

Edited by Bruce
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1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

 

why it was laugh worthy? Well.

 

They said 600M Domestic, which is not laugh worthy at all. This is a reasonable prediction and to me just means they don't buy the hype (which is misguided but thats a different issue).


The :hahaha: worthy part is how on earth you go from $600m DOM to $600M OS -C.... WHAT?!

 

The first movie made ~$750m DOM and ~$1.8B OS - C. ER's are bad but not THAT bad, christ. Then theres inflation + market growths.

 

Then of course the $300m China number is bizarre as you've already pointed out.

 

 

 

The first was absolutely gigantic in EU+EEA+CH+UK+Japan - great ER and a sky high ATP. about 1.1b in those. Incl. 175m in France, 170m in Jp, 162m in Ger and 151m in UK (107m in Spain and 93 in Italy).

The drop from that could be utterly awful -it would now translate to something around 750m (or a bit higher).

And on top it did 116m in Russia, wouldn't count on that.

And then the situation is overall rather bad, with inflation, energy crisis and on top political problems in Italy. Doubtful any of those will relax in the next few months.

The admission numbers of Avatar will probably be incredibly hard to reach, I think they will probably drop quite substantially, but that should be mostly covered by increases in ticket price.

Nonetheless I hope that area can get around 600m - meaning with the other countries which ignoring Russia did around 600m for Avatar there is a chance at it getting close to 1B OS-Ch, right now I wouldn't count on it though. I am most optimistic about this in China and the US.

And least in Italy, Spain etc. I think the drops there will be even worse than in France and Germany.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Please consider Top Gun Marvick doing 700m OS-C with this terrible ER,you guys forget it?you mean Avatar will doing silmiar to TGM?even worse than TGM?please tell me any market which A2 will lower than TGM?

Avatar at least 1000m OS-C,maybe more.

No idea. TGM did exceptionally well in Australia, New Zealand and the UK, but those are markets that it think will turn out incredibly well for Avatar too.

But I think Germany should turn out way more for Avatar than it did for TGM which will end up around 30m, Avatar should at least do double and that would mean around 5m adm. so a 55% drop. I expect the ATP for Avatar to be substantially higher due to 3D and an even bigger pressure to watch it in IMAX etc. Same for Italy and Spain.

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21 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

But I think Germany should turn out way more for Avatar than it did for TGM which will end up around 30m, Avatar should at least do double and that would mean around 5m adm. so a 55% drop. 

 

Why should Avatar drop over 50% in admissions? The last James Bond during Corona dropped like 15% in admissions (6m) compared to Spectre (7m). Spiderman NWH did like 4.5m admissions. Avatar should be much bigger than any comic book movie in Germany. I expect at least 7m admissions. Keep in mind, the first one sold over 11m tickets.

Edited by Elessar
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Know ERs are bad . But at least to hit more than NWH OS- china

700m Dom

1.1-1.2bn OS-C

600-800m china

2.4bn -2.7bn

 

My high end prediction may be a little too high for many but never underestimate cameron.

 

Worst case scenario I see is 1.4b OS-C ,1.7-1.8b + china.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Know ERs are bad . But at least to hit more than NWH OS- china

700m Dom

1.1-1.2bn OS-C

600-800m china

2.4bn -2.7bn

My high end prediction may be a little too high for many but never underestimate cameron.

Worst case scenario I see is 1.4b OS-C ,1.7-1.8b + china.

 

You don't have to justify it making $700m DOM

 

Avatar would easily make over a $1B Domestic today if it performed comparitvely well to it did back in 2009.

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57 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Please consider Top Gun Marvick doing 700m OS-C with this terrible ER,you guys forget it?you mean Avatar will doing silmiar to TGM?even worse than TGM?please tell me any market which A2 will lower than TGM?

Avatar at least 1000m OS-C,maybe more.

Ok, maybe I have been extremely conservative with the $700m scenario, but I could perfectly see an under $1b OS-China without too many problems

 

The first one did about $1.82b OS-C. You have to take out Russia and Ukraine, where it did $125m combined. Applying today ERs in biggest markets for Avatar (Eurozone+UK+SK+Australia+Japan), it drops from $1.17b to $820m (quick calculations, but a 30% drop fits more or less with the ERs situation). Extrapolating to the whole $1.7b OS-C would mean $1.19b. With a 40% drop in attendance you have barely over $700m. You need to apply a 40% inflation to reach $1b OS-China (3.1% increase per year on average, something that has not happened even with the huge inflation we have today). Maybe 900s OS-China.

 

Of course, I asume a 40% drop in attendance, something that we could see in many countries, mostly European.

 

Can James Cameron do it again and make people come back to theaters? I do not doubt about he can do it. But right now I am not so optimistic because of economical situation. On the other hand, I am extremely optimistic about its performance in China.

 

I can be wrong, but I do not see it a so crazy scenario.

Edited by peludo
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1 minute ago, peludo said:

Ok, maybe I have been extremely conservative with the $700m scenario, but I could perfectly see an under $1b OS-China without too many problems

 

The first one did about $1.82b OS-C. You have to take out Russia and Ukraine, where it did $125m combined. Applying today ERs in biggest markets for Avatar: Eurozone+UK+SK+Australia+Japan, it drops from $1.17b to $820m (quick calculations, but a 30% drop fits more or less with the ERs situation). Extrapolating to the whole $1.7b OS-C would mean $1.19b. With a 40% drop in attendance you have barely over $700m. You need to apply a 40% inflation to reach $1b OS-China (3.1% increase per year on average, something that has not happened even with the huge inflation we have today)

 

Of course, I asume a 40% drop in attendance, something that we could see in many countries, mostly European.

 

Can James Cameron do it again and make people come back to theaters? I do not doubt about he can do it. But right now I am not so optimistic because of economical situation. On the other hand, I am extremely optimistic about its performance in China.

 

I can be wrong, but I do not see it a so crazy scenario.

 

You can't just take numbers from 2009 and apply the new ER to them, inflation and market growth are important too.

 

Latin America and SEA are substantially bigger and play a huge role in OS-C

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