Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[Issac Newton]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

That's a lie. Your name is in white not purple (⁠☉⁠｡⁠☉⁠)⁠!

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

There were three purple guys... All left BOT? I haven't seen any of them posting 

They only show up for big and important movies.

 

Spoiler

I'm kidding obviously. One of them, Charlie, is still here. The original one Rth comes and goes but he has become less active since the pandemic and the third guy was permanently banned for being a colossal douchebag

 

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

good or bad?

I'd say mixed. Some markets are performing very well, some are doing average numbers and some markets are doing poor. China especially has been very bad. 

 

 

33 minutes ago, excel1 said:

So will this even get to a $1 billion with those numbers?

Billion what? Total or Overseas. IT should easily go past 1 billion both overall as well as OS

[THUNDER BIRD]

28 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Decent numbers in LATAM, Western Europe - UK, India, SK, maybe Australia.

Don't know about those places, but in India is not decent, it's excellent for sure.

 

2nd biggest Opening for a Hollywood movie, surely excellent.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Sophia Jane]

OW probably 400-450m right now

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Current ATWOW OS Market Predictions (USD)

 

China: 120 - 165

SK: 85 - 100 

UK: 75 - 90

France: 60 - 75

India: 55 - 70 

Mexico: 55 - 65

Germany: 45 - 60

Australia: 40 - 55

Brazil: 40 - 55

Japan: 35 - 50

Italy: 25 - 35

Spain: 25 - 35

Other: 425 - 550 

 

Total: 1085 - 1405

[Issac Newton]

Territories	GBO
China	$23.5M
Korea	$9.8M
France	$9.5M
Germany	$8.5M
India	$5.9M
Mexico	$5.9M
Australia	$5.4M
UK	$4.5M
Italy	$4.5M
Brazil	$3.7M
Other	$45.9M
Total	$127.1M

 

[Issac Newton]

Friday key openers

Asia-Pacific

Opened #1 in all markets.

• China:  First major release in the market since Minions: The Rise of Gru in August.  Incredible 98% market share.  Strong social scores; Maoyan 9.3, TPP 9.2, Douban 8.4 (Avatar: Maoyan 9.4, TPP 9.3, Douban 8.8).  Deteriorating conditions within the market with rapid and wide Covid outbreaks and people reluctant to leave homes.
• India:  2^nd highest ever opening day for any MPA film (behind only Avengers: Endgame) and 5^th highest industry opening day ever including local product.  Strong 96% market share.  Extremely strong reviews.
• Japan:  9^th highest opening day during the pandemic era.  Positive social scores; Eiga.com 4.2/5, Filmarks 4.2/5, Yahoo 3.7/5 (Avatar: Eiga.com 3.8/5, Filmarks 3.5/5, Yahoo 3.8/5).
• Vietnam:  2^nd highest opening day during the pandemic era.  Incredible 98% market share.  Positive reactions.

Europe

Opened #1 in all markets.

• UK:  4^th highest Friday opening day in 2022.  Strong 83% market share.

• Spain:  2^nd highest opening day during the pandemic era.  Strong 86% market share.

• Poland:  3^rd highest opening day ever for any Disney release.  Strong 82% market share.

• Turkey:  2^nd highest industry opening day ever (behind only Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness).

• Romania:  2^nd highest industry opening day ever (behind only Fast & Furious 8).

• South Africa:  3^rd highest Friday opening day during the pandemic era.

[LPLC]

8 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Current ATWOW OS Market Predictions (USD)

 

China: 120 - 165

SK: 85 - 100 

UK: 75 - 90

France: 60 - 75

India: 55 - 70 

Mexico: 55 - 65

Germany: 45 - 60

Australia: 40 - 55

Brazil: 40 - 55

Japan: 35 - 50

Italy: 25 - 35

Spain: 25 - 35

Other: 425 - 550 

 

Total: 1085 - 1405

Great predictions, I hope better than $60M in France because $60M would just mean 5M-6M admissions but let's wait and see

[Andreas]

13 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Current ATWOW OS Market Predictions (USD)

 

China: 120 - 165

SK: 85 - 100 

UK: 75 - 90

France: 60 - 75

India: 55 - 70 

Mexico: 55 - 65

Germany: 45 - 60

Australia: 40 - 55

Brazil: 40 - 55

Japan: 35 - 50

Italy: 25 - 35

Spain: 25 - 35

Other: 425 - 550 

 

Total: 1085 - 1405

I feel like Japan might be overestimated and Italy & Spain underestimated a bit?

Edited December 17, 2022 by Andreas

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

There were three purple guys... All left BOT? I haven't seen any of them posting 

 

Well, one got themselves banned a few months ago. The other two are still here, we promise.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, Andreas said:

I feel like Japan might is overerstimated and Italy & Spain underestimated a bit?

 

Possibly. I'm definitely not an expert on some of these markets so I kinda had to wing it. Current estimates coming out of Japan ar ¥5-7B which is roughly $35-50M USD. Could still fall below though. 

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

  Reveal hidden contents

blame @Shawn

 

Fine, Fine...

[Flamengo81]

19 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Current ATWOW OS Market Predictions (USD)

 

China: 120 - 165

SK: 85 - 100 

UK: 75 - 90

France: 60 - 75

India: 55 - 70 

Mexico: 55 - 65

Germany: 45 - 60

Australia: 40 - 55

Brazil: 40 - 55

Japan: 35 - 50

Italy: 25 - 35

Spain: 25 - 35

Other: 425 - 550 

 

Total: 1085 - 1405

Brazil will definitely come in the higher end of the estimates.

[Issac Newton]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

Well, one got themselves banned a few months ago. The other two are still here, we promise.

I know that EC is banned and Rth is on vacation, but with Charlie's name-plate in white. I felt like the entire purple guys are disband. Thanks for responding back

 

[Elessar]

20 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Current ATWOW OS Market Predictions (USD)

 

China: 120 - 165

SK: 85 - 100 

UK: 75 - 90

France: 60 - 75

India: 55 - 70 

Mexico: 55 - 65

Germany: 45 - 60

Australia: 40 - 55

Brazil: 40 - 55

Japan: 35 - 50

Italy: 25 - 35

Spain: 25 - 35

Other: 425 - 550 

 

Total: 1085 - 1405

 

Continental Europe as a whole seems very conservative.

[Shawn Robbins]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I know that EC is banned and Rth is on vacation, but with Charlie's name-plate in white. I felt like the entire purple guys are disband. Thanks for responding back

 

Rth actually emailed support saying he couldn't access his account, but I have no idea why. Everything looks fine from what I can see. Maybe it's where he's on vacation at... but just an FYI to anyone wondering.

[Aristis]

51 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Current ATWOW OS Market Predictions (USD)

 

China: 120 - 165

SK: 85 - 100 

UK: 75 - 90

France: 60 - 75

India: 55 - 70 

Mexico: 55 - 65

Germany: 45 - 60

Australia: 40 - 55

Brazil: 40 - 55

Japan: 35 - 50

Italy: 25 - 35

Spain: 25 - 35

Other: 425 - 550 

 

Total: 1085 - 1405

Germany is without a doubt far too low - even your high end might be the *worst-worst* case low end. That would be 3,3-4,4M admissions (in the case that the ATP might fall from where it is now) and an atrocious multipler. It won't gross lower than between $60-85M.

[Jonan23]

Saw Avatar on a regular 2d screen

 

Bad news it was around 1/5th full. Reall bad for a Saturday 8:30 showing. 

 

Good news I watched it here because the Imax cinema which is more than double the price was nearly sold out. I didn't want to sit in the corner or wait another day. 

 

Better news I really enjoyed the movie and felt it was an awesome cinematic experience. I did feel the loss of James Horner during the action scenes.