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Sophia Jane

Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

By Sophia Jane, in International Box Office

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Posted by charlie Jatinder,

update: $1.42B without China. China looks like $220M.
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hw64 Sleeper Hit

hw64

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4 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

That would be about 580 crore at current exchange rates. Seems like a good target. I'm hoping for more like 700 though. 

 

I'm also gunning for about 600 Cr - more would be great, though.

 

Aren't your overseas predictions quite low, though?

 

On 11/18/2022 at 6:20 PM, Toruk Makto XXR said:

Tickets go on sale Monday and I'm very curious to see what the initial demand looks like. I'm guessing it'll be somewhere between JWD and The Batman. As of today I'm still sticking with roughly the following numbers...

$160M DOM OW 

$675M DOM Total 
$1100 - 1400M OS-C-R

$700-900M China (assuming no COVID restrictions)

 

How can you be on board with Avatar 2 targetting 580 Cr in India and still have it only making $1.1-$1.4b OS-C-R?

 

If it's making that much in India then I've personally got it at $1.6, $1.7b+.

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

I'm also gunning for about 600 Cr - more would be great, though.

 

Aren't your overseas predictions quite low, though?

 

 

How can you be on board with Avatar 2 targetting 580 Cr in India and still have it only making $1.1-$1.4b OS-C-R?

 

If it's making that much in India then I've personally got it at $1.6, $1.7b+.

 

Maybe but here's my thinking.

Avatar's OS total minus China and Russia ~$1.76B OS.

Between France, Germany, UK, Spain and Italy I'm modeling a $300-350M combined loss for A2.

The rest of the EMEA (as per Box Office Mojo) will lose another $100-120M or so. 

Japan and Australia will drop at least $100M combined.

LATAM should be roughly flat.
APAC minus the countries mentioned above will increase by about $100-125M overall (this includes India).

 

All in all, this leaves the OS-C-R market right in the $1.3-1.35B range. 

Edited by Toruk Makto XXR
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hw64 Sleeper Hit

hw64

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

Maybe but here's my thinking.

Avatar's OS total minus China and Russia ~$1.76B OS.

Between France, Germany, UK, Spain and Italy I'm modeling a $300-350M combined loss for A2.

 

That is rough, man. My high-end estimate for the loss in the Europe big 5 is about $260m based on 80% of Avatar's ticket sales in the UK and Germany, 85% in France, and 75% in Italy and Spain, and my low-end is only around a $160-$170m loss. I've even gone pretty damn conservative on the ATPs - in LC, 10 in the UK, 12 in Germany, 9.5 in France, 8 in Italy and 7 in Spain. I guess we disagree quite a bit on what level of ticket sales we're expecting from Avatar 2.

 

40 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

The rest of the EMEA (as per Box Office Mojo) will lose another $100-120M or so. 

Japan and Australia will drop at least $100M combined.

LATAM should be roughly flat.
APAC minus the countries mentioned above will increase by about $100-125M overall (this includes India).

 

All in all, this leaves the OS-C-R market right in the $1.3-1.35B range. 

 

To compare:

I'm not sure what territories EMEA covers exactly, but in Europe generally outside of the big 5 above, my low-end performance/high-end loss is about $70m.

My high-end Japan-Australia loss is around $115-$125m, so I'm a bit higher than you there, at least on the low end of performance.

The major LATAM countries I've modelled I'm seeing a $20m increase on the low-end.

And APAC I think I'm generally in agreement with you, again on the low end of my performance estimates.

 

That's about $1.5b adding up all my low-ends including India at 500 Cr, so if India is doing around 600 Cr or so, I'd expect $1.6b+. I've been pretty conservative on all my ATPs and exchange rates, too. In fact, having had a look, my Europe estimates are based off of dollar-euro parity whereas it's now about 1.03 dollars in a euro, so those could stand to go up.

 

Anyway, nice to compare workings.

Edited by hw64
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IronJimbo Global Phenomenon

IronJimbo

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2 minutes ago, Andreas said:

@IronJimbo this might unironically hit 3 billies globally

 

The fact the film will be more groundbreaking than the first and resonate with audiences just as hard by capturing the key experitenal feeling of the first movie while also this time around proving a story which is much richer than the first with higher emotional stakes.... This has been known for years 😎

 

I'm glad you're starting to believe

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