Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[Borobudur]

26 minutes ago, Bruce said:

with China current situation,I think 400m in China is reality target

But the covid cases keep rising, the trend is still not on decreasing trend, Soon we will have opening rate to sink below 50% and A2 only left with 3 weeks. 

[Sophia Jane]

6 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

But the covid cases keep rising, the trend is still not on decreasing trend, Soon we will have opening rate to sink below 50% and A2 only left with 3 weeks. 

Yeah the Covid kill the chance for Avatar beating any record in China

[Sophia Jane]

Avatar presale is not the hype like Endgame or NWH,seems we still need the leggy run but not the huge opening for this one

At Present ,2B WW is my target ,would be happy if it can reach 2.5B level

Edited November 24, 2022 by Bruce

[Godzilla]

On 9/11/2022 at 10:05 PM, The GOAT said:

DOM: ~700m

China: ~700m

Int: ~800m

 

Total: ~2200m

If No Way Home can do a $1B overseas without China then so can this... 

 

My prediction: 

DOM - $600M 

China - $600M 

Overseas - $1.2B 

$2.4B WW

It has no competition during the holidays. 

[adaros]

17 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

China - $600M 

Don't think that's possible ser, 50% of cinemas are now closed and they can close even more in next days/weeks.

[XXR vs XXR]

Now that we have a better idea of China's restrictions, I'm going with $1.6-1.7B OS total.

[IronJimbo]

 

TV spot uploaded to official channel

 

Edited November 24, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Borobudur]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

TV spot uploaded to official channel

 

There are some poor CGI of water splash by JC standard at 0.21. I hope this is not the final product I got in theater. 

[MG10]

With these harsh (and absurd) restrictions I would already be happy with 300M dollars, so slighty more than than what the first did including the re-release

 

With covid ignored as in the rest of the world instead I would have expected 700/800M, so big disappointment for me...

[Sophia Jane]

The sequel will open on 1,700 Imax screens in 89 countries on Dec. 16. Gelfond said the pre-sale numbers for Avatar can’t be made public yet, but he did add: “It’s one of the highest pre-sale levels we’ve ever seen.

[LPLC]

Guys, can we hope for a global launch above AIW (I think AIW was at $600M-$650M) ?

[hw64]

4 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Guys, can we hope for a global launch above AIW (I think AIW was at $600M-$650M) ?

 

$640m, and yes, I think it's very likely.

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Guys, can we hope for a global launch above AIW (I think AIW was at $600M-$650M) ?

 

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

$640m, and yes, I think it's very likely.

 

Keep in mind AIW didn't open in China at the same time as its global launch. 

[Sophia Jane]

Beating AIW Global OW is doable consider AIW don’t have China opening

[hw64]

56 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Keep in mind AIW didn't open in China at the same time as its global launch. 

 

I'm aware, but I don't think it's relevant to the question. I don't think anybody's trying to make an apples-to-apples comparison here — the question asked was whether Avatar 2 will open above Infinity War's global opening of $640m, and I think it's pretty likely.

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

I'm aware, but I don't think it's relevant to the question. I don't think anybody's trying to make an apples-to-apples comparison here — the question asked was whether Avatar 2 will open above Infinity War's global opening of $640m, and I think it's pretty likely.

 

You're technically correct that it's not relevant to the direct question asked BUT if someone doesn't know the circumstances of AIW's global opening then I think it's prudent to make sure all the data surrounding said question is available for onlookers to understand. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

OW will be hurt due to World Cup Semis on THU and Final on SUN. Ranging for 0-20% impact over weekend in diff markets. Overall impact need to figure.

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

OW will be hurt due to World Cup Semis on THU and Final on SUN. Ranging for 0-20% impact over weekend in diff markets. Overall impact need to figure.

 

Ahh shit I keep forgetting that's a thing and it's huge in a lot of countries. 

[JustLurking]

Yea, WC will impact things OS. Though still expecting a huge opening, and 2nd weekend hold will be epic as a result.

[Tokugennumataka]

Let's say dom heads to 165. China maybe 130??. That'd mean 345 OS-C to beat IW. (IW did 383M). 90% of AIW with raging WC finals, spoilerproof effect, December weekend is not that easy, I'd say.