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Sophia Jane

Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

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It's really hard to predict this one imho so I think people shouldn't get too hung up on who under/over predicts this.

 

Even setting aside ERs this winter in europe is going to be extremely rough with gas shenanigans and we have no idea how things will play out (will it favor it with people needing escapism in the face of crisis? will it cripple it?). That said I think as a baseline it's hard for me to imagine A2 won't atleast beat out TGM OS-C. I think A2 will be very popular in some emerging markets like India, Saudi to cover a bit for europe/japan declines and south america should still play very strong for the film. Plus even if it only got the admissions of TGM (which I still feel is a pretty lowball scenario), the ATP will definitely favor A2.

 

Obviously this is under the assumption that the film has strong reception (which regardless of how you feel about 1, is pretty likely given Cameron's track record is virtually flawless on this front). Bad reception would cripple this super hard.

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1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

You can't just take numbers from 2009 and apply the new ER to them, inflation and market growth are important too.

 

Latin America and SEA are substantially bigger and play a huge role in OS-C

I have taken into account inflation, let's say a 25-30% to reach 900s OS-C.

 

The new big markets like Brazil or Mexico (which were already quite big in 2009) can make something, but they can not compensate the nearly locked big drop from Europe. What Avatar did in Europe was historic and the film had two extremely positive factors: both 3D doping and best ERs ever. I have doubts about the first one too.

 

I insist that it is only my theory. I can be perfectly wrong. In fact, I really wish I am wrong and this delivers what you have been saying for years, $3b, $4b or more. I am done with Marvel and I want any other thing can make huge numbers (I adore TGM run). 

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1 minute ago, peludo said:

I have taken into account inflation, let's say a 25-30% to reach 900s OS-C.

 

The new big markets like Brazil or Mexico (which were already quite big in 2009) can make something, but they can not compensate the nearly locked big drop from Europe. What Avatar did in Europe was historic and the film had two extremely positive factors: both 3D doping and best ERs ever. I have doubts about the first one too.

 

I insist that it is only my theory. I can be perfectly wrong. In fact, I really wish I am wrong and this delivers what you have been saying for years, $3b, $4b or more. I am done with Marvel and I want any other thing can make huge numbers (I adore TGM run). 

 

The things you're saying are valid though, I'm totally not comfortable trying to predict OS-C right now. All the Exchange Rates, inflation, market changes and of course covid changes make it a massive clusterfuck to try and work out how much money it's going to make.

All I'm really comfortable saying is that Avatar 2 will be loved wildwide and be the biggest  film in 13 years, and possibily 25 years. I'm also comfortable saying that it will make over $1B domestic, as honestly for some reason despite being British its the market I understand the best.
 

What does over $1b domestic translate to worldwide? I don't know anymore, we should all bare in mind that America was not Avatar's best market releative to it's size. It was absolutely loved around the world so you shouldn't really look at Spiderman or something and think $800m Dom converts to $1.1b OS-C, Avatar skews more heavy internationally than Marvel films.

 

Even with the spiderman stuff though, the ER has dropped a futher 10% since it's release so it's all so annoying to follow

 

 

 

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58 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Why should Avatar drop over 50% in admissions? The last James Bond during Corona dropped like 15% in admissions (6m) compared to Spectre (7m). Spiderman NWH did like 4.5m admissions. Avatar should be much bigger than any comic book movie in Germany. I expect at least 7m admissions. Keep in mind, the first one sold over 11m tickets.

5m is my baseline and the 11m is gigantic out-performer - since then only Intouchables and TFA have gotten somewhat close. And the environment is awful with inflation and energy problems and a big amount of uncertainty.

NWH (and Endgame) were out-performers too, the next highest is Infinity War with 3.5m (among Marvel movies).

Outside of NTTD and NWH Germany isn't exactly on a run right now box office wise.

It could go either way, if the situation turns out to be overall "okay" it can certainly do a lot more.

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3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

The first was absolutely gigantic in EU+EEA+CH+UK+Japan - great ER and a sky high ATP. about 1.1b in those. Incl. 175m in France, 170m in Jp, 162m in Ger and 151m in UK (107m in Spain and 93 in Italy).

The drop from that could be utterly awful -it would now translate to something around 750m (or a bit higher).

And on top it did 116m in Russia, wouldn't count on that.

And then the situation is overall rather bad, with inflation, energy crisis and on top political problems in Italy. Doubtful any of those will relax in the next few months.

The admission numbers of Avatar will probably be incredibly hard to reach, I think they will probably drop quite substantially, but that should be mostly covered by increases in ticket price.

Nonetheless I hope that area can get around 600m - meaning with the other countries which ignoring Russia did around 600m for Avatar there is a chance at it getting close to 1B OS-Ch, right now I wouldn't count on it though. I am most optimistic about this in China and the US.

And least in Italy, Spain etc. I think the drops there will be even worse than in France and Germany.

 

 

 

Forgive me but the fact that you put Italy's political problems among the reasons why Avatar 2 will have some difficulties is quite funny, but thank you anyway for the thought. Unfortunately we represent only 1% of the global box office for the most important hollywood movies, so even if we hypothetically stop releasing them they probably wouldn't even notice 😅

 

The fact that between September and October we will elect one of the worst parliaments (and consequently one of the worst governments) ever isn't such a big problem if you think that unfortunately from the 80s to today the decent governments can literally be counted on the fingers of one hand. But whatever happens it shouldn't affect the box office, I think Avatar 2 should still be able to do like the Lion King remake and therefore make at least 5M admissions and 40M euros...

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Who needs well thought-out arguments when you've got superstitution?

I see the logic and the rationality behind your 1.5-2.2 billion arguments, and I say screw your logic

I've made my dad (european) sit through the entire western and most of the eastern canon, and avatar still remains his favorite movie and the only one we've rewatched in theathers

 

That is enough for me

 

3 billion or bust

 

Edited by interiorgatordecorator
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16 hours ago, MG10 said:

 

Forgive me but the fact that you put Italy's political problems among the reasons why Avatar 2 will have some difficulties is quite funny, but thank you anyway for the thought. Unfortunately we represent only 1% of the global box office for the most important hollywood movies, so even if we hypothetically stop releasing them they probably wouldn't even notice 😅

 

The fact that between September and October we will elect one of the worst parliaments (and consequently one of the worst governments) ever isn't such a big problem if you think that unfortunately from the 80s to today the decent governments can literally be counted on the fingers of one hand. But whatever happens it shouldn't affect the box office, I think Avatar 2 should still be able to do like the Lion King remake and therefore make at least 5M admissions and 40M euros...

Political problems in italy are coming at like the worst possible moment so they potentially could have some influence for the rest of europe (regarding monetary policies etc. - we can't really let italy jump of a cliff, its a bit too large and has a bit too much debt (second largest only behind France)). And for Avatar Italy was around 3.5% not that much, but still. It adds up, is what I am trying to say.

(And maybe me being from Europe had something to do with it too.)

 

TLK did weirdly bad in Germany. Hopefully you are right. Are tickets that cheap in Italy? I guess that for Avatar 5m in Germany should translate to 60m maybe even 65m.

 

Even though with how dynamic the situation overall is, no idea how everything will look like in December.

Edited by Taruseth
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Not really trying to fill the thread with italian politics so I'll only make a post over it and call it - While this isn't the government I'd want and I especially don't want them to navigate the country in a time of big crisis, this is still Italy, extreme suggestions for ministers will end up being blocked (remember when Conte I had Savona for European Affairs and Italy left euro? Me neither, because Mattarella spared us from that). It'll be a populist government and again, this is Italy, so it'll be a short-lived government replaced by a technical one in like a year tops. There's going to be a lot of immigrant discourse (and yes, it'll be in very bad spirit), there'll be some right-wing economic politics, and it's going to be a very populist government, but that is really about it. The fact that some ministers from the current government have already had talks to be part of the next one should already say plenty.

 

This isn't Berlusconi, these parties don't have the charisma nor the media control to shrug off criticism for long and populist discourse doesn't work as well when you're actually in the government and not part of the opposition. What worries me if anything is that it's not a good time for a populist government (gas crisis, climate crisis, and  Ukraine war - and while Meloni did reposition herself as atlantist, it wasn't that long ago that she was singing Putin's praises and if Lega - which does have russian ties and a putin fanboy leading it - is calling for a stop to Ukraine support, I'm not sure we'll see much resistance on the matter). But even with that, I do not think we are about to see a fascist takeover like people are prophesying or anything.

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The buzzkill for this movie in Europe could be the energy crisis coupled with the worsening economic (and political) situation in some countrys. This winter will be not pretty if the terrorist state named Russia chooses to cut off the gas supply earlier than predicted (which i think will happen). People in Eastern Europe and places like Germany or Austria could have bigger problems this winter than missing a movie that does gangbusters in DOM, LA and Asia.

 

I realize this sounds like a doompost and i certainly dont want a realy energy crisis this winter, but all signs sadly point to that. Could get ugly.

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5 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Political problems in italy are coming at like the worst possible moment so they potentially could have some influence for the rest of europe (regarding monetary policies etc. - we can't really let italy jump of a cliff, its a bit too large and has a bit too much debt (second largest only behind France)). And for Avatar Italy was around 3.5% not that much, but still. It adds up, is what I am trying to say.

(And maybe me being from Europe had something to do with it too.)

 

TLK did weirdly bad in Germany. Hopefully you are right. Are tickets that cheap in Italy? I guess that for Avatar 5m in Germany should translate to 60m maybe even 65m.

 

Even though with how dynamic the situation overall is, no idea how everything will look like in December.

 

Yeah the tickets here cost on average 7 euros (in the north however it's probably 8€), but I imagine that for an important film that comes out during the holidays they will put the extra cost of one euro as happened with No Way Home...

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On 7/26/2022 at 9:42 PM, jma22 said:

In Spain, Avatar grossed 77M€ and in 2009 that was = 107M$

Today 77M€ means 78M$ LOL

 

The bad Er will cost around 200M$ just at eurozone 

 

And I think Avatar 2 will have BIG drops vs Avatar 1 in Europe, maybe -50% !!!

Asia and Latam will increase but I can't see this above 2B

 

My estimate: 600M Domestic + 600 OS-C + 300 CHINA = 1,5B

 

That's batshit crazy.

 

$600m OS-C is going to be a cakewalk for this.

 

At the moment, despite seeing a very big drop in Europe because of the exchange rate and a slightly shrinking market, I think it will explode in practically all developing markets and it will still do huge everywhere else. 

 

Around $1.3b OS-C. With China, then it will hit $2b+ OS. 

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On 7/27/2022 at 3:48 PM, peludo said:

Ok, maybe I have been extremely conservative with the $700m scenario, but I could perfectly see an under $1b OS-China without too many problems

 

The first one did about $1.82b OS-C. You have to take out Russia and Ukraine, where it did $125m combined. Applying today ERs in biggest markets for Avatar (Eurozone+UK+SK+Australia+Japan), it drops from $1.17b to $820m (quick calculations, but a 30% drop fits more or less with the ERs situation). Extrapolating to the whole $1.7b OS-C would mean $1.19b. With a 40% drop in attendance you have barely over $700m. You need to apply a 40% inflation to reach $1b OS-China (3.1% increase per year on average, something that has not happened even with the huge inflation we have today). Maybe 900s OS-China.

 

Of course, I asume a 40% drop in attendance, something that we could see in many countries, mostly European.

 

Can James Cameron do it again and make people come back to theaters? I do not doubt about he can do it. But right now I am not so optimistic because of economical situation. On the other hand, I am extremely optimistic about its performance in China.

 

I can be wrong, but I do not see it a so crazy scenario.

 

I think you're truly underestimating how much this is going to explode in many countries worldwide. United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia alone will do more than $40m+ combined when Avatar only had a much smaller UAE market then where it did $7m. South America, India, Eastern Europe (excluding Ukraine obviously), Middle East, and a few other significant territories will see big increases.

 

And I also say this...people underestimate how much of a phenomenon Avatar 2 will be. I doubt very much (even in developed markets) that it will drop anywhere close to 40%. With good reviews and WOM, I can easily see it falling 20%-25%.

 

India will easily more than double its previous gross, you'll have Brazil and Mexico combined do over $150m when Avatar did $103m.

 

I firmly believe it will be a $1b+ OS-C film.

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3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

The buzzkill for this movie in Europe could be the energy crisis coupled with the worsening economic (and political) situation in some countrys. This winter will be not pretty if the terrorist state named Russia chooses to cut off the gas supply earlier than predicted (which i think will happen). People in Eastern Europe and places like Germany or Austria could have bigger problems this winter than missing a movie that does gangbusters in DOM, LA and Asia.

 

I realize this sounds like a doompost and i certainly dont want a realy energy crisis this winter, but all signs sadly point to that. Could get ugly.

 

People forget how much movies can explode during times of crisis (this happened in 2008 as well).

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Middle East will be at $100M ($50M KSA + $30M UAE + $20M Rest)

 

I am going with $110M ME&A

 

Asia likely $120M JPN + $100M India + $100M KOR + $100M China SAR (Taiwan+Hong Kong+Macau) + $80M SEA + $20M Rest — $520M

 

ME&A + Asia-C - $630M

 

LATAM - $200M* / Oceania - $100M = $930M Total 

 

Adding $300M Europe / $50M CIS+Russia - $1280M

 

OS-C = $1280M (optimistic)

OS-C = $1580M (Additional $100M LATAM + $200M Europe)

 

Mainland China / North America - $800M / $1000M (equilibrium)

 

So $3080M - $3380M WW

 

This is how I am looking for Avatar // A good ER could suggest $4000M WW

Edited by Issac Newton
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1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Middle East will be at $100M ($50M KSA + $30M UAE + $20M Rest)

 

I am going with $110M ME&A

 

Asia likely $120M JPN + $100M India + $100M KOR + $100M China SAR (Taiwan+Hong Kong+Macau) + $80M SEA + $20M Rest — $520M

 

ME&A + Asia-C - $630M

 

LATAM - $200M* / Oceania - $100M = $930M Total 

 

Adding $300M Europe / $50M CIS+Russia - $1280M

 

OS-C = $1280M (optimistic)

OS-C = $1580M (Additional $100M LATAM + $200M Europe)

 

Mainland China / North America - $800M / $1000M (equilibrium)

 

So $3080M - $3380M WW

 

This is how I am looking for Avatar // A good ER could suggest $4000M WW

How are you getting $120m from Japan when Top Gun isn't even getting $100m from ¥12bn

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2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

How are you getting $120m from Japan when Top Gun isn't even getting $100m from ¥12bn

ER in Winter will be lot better than summer. Not a very accurate prediction but certainly won't be lower than Jujutsu Kaisen 0 which is a instantaneous work, while Avatar 2 will be a continuous work if JC miracle works.

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