Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[Danhjpn]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I didn't say this film has subpar WOM if that's what you mean, that comment was referred to JWD which was able to leg out a bunch because of the reopenings and whatnot. I did say it could leg out but situation just doesn't feel like something you can just force people out of with positive WOM to me.

 

Im pretty sure Marvel fans here and on Reddit will only look at its box office number in China and say it flop there.

"Flop" is when the movie has so bad reception/audience score/... that nobody watches it => no legs, not when a movie has great wom and audience reception but low income due to external factors. 

[Nikostar]

Let's just pray for 1.8 billion at this point

[Gkalaitza]

28 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Covid or no covid...film has flopped spectacularly in China. I think the Chinese will come in massive numbers for wandering earth 2. Just wait and watch.

Yeah ok but thats even more of a reason to try and understand the very particular and volatile situation and weeks China is experiencing rn in regards to the virus that has to be factored in trying to explain how it the movie does there. I dont wanna repeat myself with what my read on the situation is and you have a bunch of people even here , let alone media coverage pointing towards Covid being the major reason. It just is wrong to dismiss and not try to understand the very weird and chaotic situation exploding there in favor of "people just dont care about avatar lol"

 

Would it have underperformed crazy high expectations either way no matter the Covid sittuation? Sure but im personaly 100% certain it wouldnt even come close to "flopping" into a $200m total.  So i dont understand the refusal to engage with the very very plausible and unique among all countries explanation factoring in heavily in its performance. 

 

Yeah Wandering Earth may do much better but thats in more than a month and we dont know when the Covid wave will peak and when people will get accustomed and less afraid of this new reality and huge paradigm shift thats happening right now

Edited December 16, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Danhjpn said:

 

Im pretty sure Marvel fans here and on Reddit will only look at its box office number in China and say it flop there.

"Flop" is when the movie has so bad reception/audience score/... that nobody watches it => no legs, not when a movie has great wom and audience reception but low income due to external factors. 

Why on earth would I or anyone else care about what reddit says?

[The Dark Alfred]

TBH China was just gravy. 

[adaros]

23 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

Covid or no covid...film has flopped spectacularly in China. I think the Chinese will come in massive numbers for wandering earth 2. Just wait and watch.

China situation is changing daily at this point. Looking at what people that are close to Chinese BO market say in Chinese BOT thread current covid situation and how Chinese citizens react to it is not great for movie going experience now.

But hey it's easy to just say 'Avatar is failure with covid or without covid...' as you do. We know you want this movie to failure that's nothing new, but at least try to do some reading about current factors that are targeting it in this market, especially when there are many great BOT users that explain recent situation going on in China with cinemas or how Chinese people still heavily restrain themselves to spend time in crowded closed space. Few weeks back we didn't even know if movie will release there at all.
Wandering Earth 2 is more than month till release and movie going restrains that people now have may or may not change, we really don't know. 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Andreas]

43 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

$275M+ OW combined from US and China?

EASY, it just needs around $225M OW domestically!

[Nero]

So global OW could come under $500M oof 

[GipJo]

China first day: 19 mil, 57% of that is pre-sale.

Now let's look at those SAT and Sun stats. the pre-sale of SAT and SUN are around 10 mil and 7 mil.

What the true first 3 days number will be?

I'm betting on 50 mil.

[Nero]

Just now, GipJo said:

China first day: 19 mil, 57% of that is pre-sale.

Now let's look at those SAT and Sun stats. the pre-sale of SAT and SUN are around 10 mil and 7 mil.

What the true first 3 days number will be?

I'm betting on 50 mil.

So china OW ~$50M ?

[GipJo]

Just now, Nero said:

So china OW ~$50M ?

Looks more and more like it. I never see a worse walk-up performance like this.

[Nero]

11 minutes ago, GipJo said:

Looks more and more like it. I never see a worse walk-up performance like this.

So it seems there's a tell tale sign. Japan also having worse performance and US also very low OW (not good walk ups). I wonder how the legs would be.

[Liiviig 1998]

1 hour ago, Danhjpn said:

You guys said like this movie has bad/terrible reception in China lmao. 

This movie has a combo 8.4/9.2/9.3 on Douban/Tiapaopao/Maoyan that is more than enough to indicate it has GREAT WOM in China. That combo is even better than Endgame.

The reason why the number is slowing down is due to external factors (Covid outbreak situation is getting worse) rather than the movie itself.

As long as the gov doesn't close movie industry and shut down all cinema in the country and as long as they still let the movie played in cinema in months,, it will have good legs  

Concern trolling has gotten a little too much here and will continue throughout the weekend. Gonna give this two weeks before making judgement.

 

Have a hard time seeing this below NWH OS. 

 

Except UK and mexico . I see it beating it NWH in the rest of the markets.

 

VA is 95% . This should have legs 600-650m domestic.

 

World cup is having an effect and it should bounce back afterwards.

 

Still seeing 2B+.

[Gkalaitza]

Terrible but abysmal walk ups sadly make sense in China given the situation .Walking up into a close space with 50+ other people for 4 hours seems like an extremely unnapealing and dangerous deal rn for most Chinese people. Was talking with some people in discord and they tell me infections have exploded from zero to basicaly half their social circle in a week .Things have changed insanely fast and everyone is somewhat at a loss. Again ironic that maybe this may turn out the worst time to release a movie in China in all the pandemic years after all the optimism of their "opening up" 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

So A2 in China probably won’t catch A1 which really sucks. I just redid my expectations based on all of the new info (and after seeing the film) and now my numbers come out to $1.83B WW  

[Danhjpn]

2 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

Terrible but abysmal walk ups sadly make sense given the situation .Walking up into a close space with 50+ other people for 4 hours seems like an extremely unnapealing and dangerous deal rn for most Chinese people. Was talking with some people in discord and they tell me infections have exploded from zero to basicaly half their social circle in a week .Things have changed insanely fast and everyone is somewhat at a loss

 

Ok, so it further confirmed that low walk up in China is due to Covid, not the movie reception itself. 

[The Dark Alfred]

World Cup only going to have effect on Sunday and did damage in France on Wednesday, but should bounce back. There are no games on atm.

[Issac Newton]

Let's see if the risk was worthy or not

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Issac Newton