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Sophia Jane

Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

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Can't see how Latin America explodes. Market has certainly grew from first Avatar but ER is at completely abysmal levels.

  • Mexico which has resisted the most against USD strenght -not only region-wise byt worldwide- will be flat in USD if it holds the same in admissions and is certainly not locked to grow much because admissions are having a hard time to recover, is ER and inflation which are doing the hard work.
  • Brazil needs to beat Endgame in lc in order to catch rythm from the original.
  • Forget about Venezuela grossing anything nearly similar as their situations only get worst as time goes by.
  • Colombia and Argentina will be just as hard as Brazil. 

Won't understimate Jimbo -I'm counting on it to be the biggest of the year in many countries here- but I think Way of Water should just be compared to recent titles sans No Way Home because expect it to be groundbreaking in a region where the original was destroyed just a few months later by Toy Story 3 proves that sci-fi -even coming from Jimbo- has a hard time pulling off what SH and animations do.

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Avatar - ¥15.60B / 9.93M admits

 

ATP was at ¥1571

 

Nationwide ATP was ¥1266 at 2010 / ¥1252 at 2011. So, Avatar ATP was up by ¥305 / ¥319

 

2021 ATP is ¥1410. If we had same increase (¥305 / ¥319)  then ¥1715 / ¥1729 ATP for Avatar 2. 

 

So, 9.93M admits will meant - ¥17.03B / ¥17.17B ($126.6M / $127.6M)

 

Ofc, ATP looks so high / increase is far too optimistic. Can't say much as largely relaying on good reception. I do get JustLurking's words but just opening up my heart more for James Cameron.

Edited by Issac Newton
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Here are my first projections :

 

 

DOM : $550M-$700M

 

United Kingdom : $100M-$125M

France : $75M-$110M

Germany : $70M-$105M

Spain : $35M-$50M

Italy : $35M-$45M

KSA : $30M-$40M

UAE : $14M-$21M

Sweden : $13M-$20M

Netherlands : $13M-$19M

Switzerland : $13M-$19M

Belgium : $12M-$18M

Denmark : $12M-$16M

Poland : $10M-$14M

Austria : $8M-$13M

Israel : $7M-$11M

Norway : $7M-$10M

Czech Republic : $6M-$8M

Portugal : $4,5M-$6,5M

Greece : $4,5M-$6,5M

South Africa : $4,5M-$6,5M

Finland : $3,5M-$5M 

Kuwait : $3M-$6M

Egypt : $3M-$5M 

Hungary : $3M-$4,5M

Turkey : $2,5M-$4M   

Romania : $2,5M-$4M 

Lebanon : $2M-$6M

Qatar : $2M-$3M

Bahrain : $2M-$3M

Slovakia : $2M-$2,5M

Nigeria : $1,5M-$2M

Oman : $1,5M

 

Total EMEA : $502M-$710M

 

 

Mexico : $60M-$85M

Brazil : $45M-$65M

Argentina : $17M-$24M

Central America : $13M-$17M

Chile : $12M-$16M

Colombia : $11M-$17M

Peru : $10M-$14M

Ecuador : $8M-$11M

Venezuela : $4M-$5M

Bolivia : $3M-$5M

 

Total Latin America : $183M-$259M

 

 

Japan : $60M-$100M

South Korea : $60M-$95M

Australia : $55M-$75M

India : $55M-$70M

Taiwan : $32M-$37M

Indonesia : $25M-$34M

Thailand : $22M-$31M

Hong Kong : $21M-$25M

Malaysia : $20M-$22M

Singapore : $12M-$14M

Vietnam : $8M-$13M

New Zealand : $6M-$8M

Pakistan : $2M-$3M

 

Total APAC : $378M-$527M

 

 

China : $650M-$800M

 

 

Rest : $25M-$35M

 

 

OS-China-Russia-Ukraine : $1,088B-$1,531B

OS-Russia-Ukraine : $1,738B-$2,331B

 

 

Total : $2288M-$3031M

 

 

As we can see, if my projections are true with China and without Russia and Ukraine :

 

- $3B will be very difficult to achieve especially when a major country like Russia is missing. AEG and A1 are also difficult but more attainable

 

- $2B and Titanic should normally be reached without problems.

 

 

Personally I think A2 will reach $2.5B but will stay a little bit below AEG and A1 (I'm thinking somewhere around $2.6B-$2.7B = $2.65B as my range suggests).

 

Finally, we note in fact that if my projections are true then A2 without China, Russia and Ukraine will do a little about the same or a little better than NWH without China but with Russia and Ukraine.

Edited by LPLC
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18 hours ago, LPLC said:

Here are my first projections :

 

 

DOM : $550M-$700M

 

United Kingdom : $100M-$125M

France : $75M-$110M

Germany : $70M-$105M

Spain : $35M-$50M

Italy : $35M-$45M

KSA : $30M-$40M

UAE : $14M-$21M

Sweden : $13M-$20M

Netherlands : $13M-$19M

Switzerland : $13M-$19M

Belgium : $12M-$18M

Denmark : $12M-$16M

Poland : $10M-$14M

Austria : $8M-$13M

Israel : $7M-$11M

Norway : $7M-$10M

Czech Republic : $6M-$8M

Portugal : $4,5M-$6,5M

Greece : $4,5M-$6,5M

South Africa : $4,5M-$6,5M

Finland : $3,5M-$5M 

Kuwait : $3M-$6M

Egypt : $3M-$5M 

Hungary : $3M-$4,5M

Turkey : $2,5M-$4M   

Romania : $2,5M-$4M 

Lebanon : $2M-$6M

Qatar : $2M-$3M

Bahrain : $2M-$3M

Slovakia : $2M-$2,5M

Nigeria : $1,5M-$2M

Oman : $1,5M

 

Total EMEA : $502M-$710M

 

 

Mexico : $60M-$85M

Brazil : $45M-$65M

Argentina : $17M-$24M

Central America : $13M-$17M

Chile : $12M-$16M

Colombia : $11M-$17M

Peru : $10M-$14M

Ecuador : $8M-$11M

Venezuela : $4M-$5M

Bolivia : $2M-$5M

 

Total Latin America : $182M-$259M

 

 

Japan : $60M-$100M

South Korea : $60M-$95M

Australia : $55M-$75M

India : $55M-$70M

Taiwan : $32M-$37M

Indonesia : $25M-$34M

Thailand : $22M-$31M

Hong Kong : $21M-$25M

Malaysia : $20M-$22M

Singapore : $12M-$14M

Vietnam : $8M-$13M

New Zealand : $6M-$8M

Pakistan : $2M-$3M

 

Total APAC : $378M-$527M

 

 

China : $650M-$800M

 

 

Rest : $25M-$35M

 

 

OS-China-Russia-Ukraine : $1,087B-$1,531B

OS-Russia-Ukraine : $1,737B-$2,331B

 

 

Total : $2287M-$3031M

 

 

As we can see, if my projections are true with China and without Russia and Ukraine :

 

- $3B will be very difficult to achieve especially when a major country like Russia is missing. AEG and A1 are also difficult but more attainable

 

- $2B and Titanic should normally be reached without problems.

 

 

Personally I think A2 will reach $2.5B but will stay a little bit below AEG and A1 (I'm thinking somewhere around $2.6B-$2.7B = $2.65B as my range suggests).

 

Finally, we note in fact that if my projections are true then A2 without China, Russia and Ukraine will do a little about the same or a little better than NWH without China but with Russia and Ukraine.

 

I agree with 95% of your forecasts but I think that in the US the minimum will be 600M also considering the insane price increase in the last couple of years, then for Europe I would only increase the forecast for Poland (15/20M instead of 10/15), while it will be interesting to see if it can do something more in markets that recently seem quite "healthy" like Australia and South Korea

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OS-C: At current exchange rates, I am coming around $1.55-1.6B. Expand the range with $1.5-1.65B.

 

  Country Gross (in $) Gross (in lc) Admits Admits (Avatar)
Asia
India $75.00 ₹6,000 20.00 9.00
South Korea $125.00   13.00 13.40
Japan $100.00 ¥1,400 8.50 10.30
Taiwan $35.00   3.50 3.40
Hong Kong $25.00   1.70 1.40
South East Asia $155.00   34.00 10.00
Middle East $112.00   10.25 5.50
Russia/CIS $5.00   1.25 14.25
Rest $6.00   1.50 0.50
Oceania
Australia $79.00 AU$115 6.25 7.50
New Zealand $11.00   1.00 1.10
Europe
UK $133.00 £115 11.00 11.50
France $120.00 €120 11.75 14.80
Germany $100.00 €100 9.00 11.30
Italy $45.00 €45 6.00 7.50
Spain $50.00 €50 6.50 9.50
Netherlands $18.00 €18 1.40 1.70
Nordic $56.50   3.50 4.00
Rest $107.50   15.00 18.00
Latin America
Mexico $60.00 MXN $1,200 16.00 10.20
Brazil $60.00 R$330.00 15.00 9.10
Rest $90.00   20.00 12.50
Africa Africa $10.00   2.00 1.70
           
  Total $1,578.00   218.10 188.15

 

Have assumed that it won't release in Russia. Developed markets i.e. Europe, Japan, Oceania am expecting drop in admits around 10-25%.

 

China: Can see it doing both $600M and $900M i.e. around 75-100M admits.

 

DOM: Avatar had around 75M admits. Conventionally that would mean around 55M for sequel, which shall be around $750-800M but if TGM can do 60M and more importantly NWH can do 67M, I don't see why Avatar 2 can't. So around $800-1050M with 55-70M admits.

 

WW: $2.9-3.6B with 340-400M admits.

 

If release in Russia, take another $65-75M or so.

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There is a chance it doesn't get good WoM. I don't see this beating TGM domestically.

 

Domestic: 625-675m

China: 650-800m

International: 1.3-1.5 billion

WW total: 2.6-3 billion

 

My prediction is around 2 billion without China. I think it will finish #3 all-time when it's all said and done. It could get to #1 if a few markets insanely explode, but I rather lowball it atm.

Edited by The Dark Alfred
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On 8/31/2022 at 9:33 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

OS-C: At current exchange rates, I am coming around $1.55-1.6B. Expand the range with $1.5-1.65B.

 

  Country Gross (in $) Gross (in lc) Admits Admits (Avatar)
Asia
India $75.00 ₹6,000 20.00 9.00
South Korea $125.00   13.00 13.40
Japan $100.00 ¥1,400 8.50 10.30
Taiwan $35.00   3.50 3.40
Hong Kong $25.00   1.70 1.40
South East Asia $155.00   34.00 10.00
Middle East $112.00   10.25 5.50
Russia/CIS $5.00   1.25 14.25
Rest $6.00   1.50 0.50
Oceania
Australia $79.00 AU$115 6.25 7.50
New Zealand $11.00   1.00 1.10
Europe
UK $133.00 £115 11.00 11.50
France $120.00 €120 11.75 14.80
Germany $100.00 €100 9.00 11.30
Italy $45.00 €45 6.00 7.50
Spain $50.00 €50 6.50 9.50
Netherlands $18.00 €18 1.40 1.70
Nordic $56.50   3.50 4.00
Rest $107.50   15.00 18.00
Latin America
Mexico $60.00 MXN $1,200 16.00 10.20
Brazil $60.00 R$330.00 15.00 9.10
Rest $90.00   20.00 12.50
Africa Africa $10.00   2.00 1.70
           
  Total $1,578.00   218.10 188.15

 

Have assumed that it won't release in Russia. Developed markets i.e. Europe, Japan, Oceania am expecting drop in admits around 10-25%.

 

China: Can see it doing both $600M and $900M i.e. around 75-100M admits.

 

DOM: Avatar had around 75M admits. Conventionally that would mean around 55M for sequel, which shall be around $750-800M but if TGM can do 60M and more importantly NWH can do 67M, I don't see why Avatar 2 can't. So around $800-1050M with 55-70M admits.

 

WW: $2.9-3.6B with 340-400M admits.

 

If release in Russia, take another $65-75M or so.

It's beating eg in india by a huge margin 100m 600cr is give or take for me.most ppl will watch it in 3d so hefty ticket prices like 500rs.

Edited by Doffy
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40 minutes ago, Doffy said:

It's beating eg in india by a huge margin 100m 600cr is give or take for me.most ppl will watch it in 3d so hefty ticket prices like 500rs.

Most people already watch most Hollywood films in 3D. Avatar may just get a normal surcharge and higher IMAX ratio in long run.

 

3D tix on average cost around ₹200-250 ish. 

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1 hour ago, SchumacherFTW said:

There any big movies due in December from India? Pathan is January right? 

There is one Salman film but that seems like a certain flop. There is one Ranveer Singh film that can do well.

 

Either way don't think it will really matter since audience are different for Avatar.

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