Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[NCsoft]

For China, even if we ignore the worsening exchange rate, the market conditions is nowhere near 2019, where $1B is not only realistic but I'd say even likely. 

right now, 58.7% of theatres are actually open, and even in those areas people are very reluctant to go. There are signs that Zero-covid policy is loosening but nothing concrete. Market seems like it's back at pre-2013 level though who knows maybe that's partly because nothing showing currently is worth watching. Moonman did pretty well earlier this year despite all these problems, but I'm not confident in A2 in China going much beyond $500M the way things look; still that's much better than nothing.

Edited November 16, 2022 by NCsoft

[IronJimbo]

Three to the two, from the two to the four, I like big billies so give me some more
 

[hw64]

40 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

For China, even if we ignore the worsening exchange rate, the market conditions is nowhere near 2019, where $1B is not only realistic but I'd say even likely.

 

This is a bit of an aside as it's all mostly theoretical now, but I'll turn heel on my usual bullishness on Avatar 2 to say that I'm still not really sold on this idea, even if we ignore any potential artificial impediments to Avatar 2's run in China (i.e. government issues).

 

A lot of people — and I'm not necessarily saying you're one of them, NCsoft — seem to assume because of Avatar's incredible box office run in China in 2010 that it's near-automatic that Avatar 2 will have similar amounts of adjusted-up box office success in China over a decade later. I don't agree: I don't think it's anywhere near automatic, and I don't think a huge gross for Avatar 2 in China should be taken for granted.

 

A lot has changed in the Chinese box office market in a decade — not only through the obvious drastic increase in market size, but also through changing consumer habits, changes in the types of people in China that are now going to the cinema, and also changes in public perception and sentiment towards foreign movies. And we've seen plenty of examples in the past of sequels to movies which saw great success in nascent, early-2010s China which haven't been able to come close to their predecessors in terms of market expansion-adjusted success.

 

Outside of huge 'want to see' figures for Avatar 2 on Maoyan which have been accumulated over the past decade and which aren't necessarily indicative of current audience interest, and some OK-but-by-no-means-incredible trailer views in China, we haven't really seen anything to indicate that Avatar 2 will have the type of performance in China that people seem to think it should have. And given how much has changed in the Chinese box office market since 2010 and how few signs we've seen recently to suggest such a huge performance, I couldn't in good faith say that $1b would be likely even in an idealized, 2019-esque China. Avatar 2 certainly had the potential to do those kinds of numbers in an unrestricted, fully-functioning China, and I'd never go anywhere close to discounting the possibility entirely, but given the above issues, I couldn't personally say that I think it would have been likely.

 

So my question to those who are confident that Avatar 2 would have made close to or more than $1b in 2019 market conditions with no government restrictions, how are you backing up that chain of thought?

[Sophia Jane]

Taiwan 12.14 now,in advance 2 days

Edited November 17, 2022 by Bruce

[Sophia Jane]

Guys I am don’t want to say that but something bad happen, a crazy sick anti-America patriot(who have huge influence) in China said he can’t stand that China allow Avatar came in,he might hearing some news that Avatar 2 will released in China ,so yesterday he announce that he already collect some fatal evidence which can let Avatar definiely can’t came in China…and he also said he will let Avatar die in China just like Marvel,I really Don’t know if this effect

Edited just now by Bruce

 

 

[NCsoft]

On 11/16/2022 at 2:21 PM, hw64 said:

 

 

A lot of people — and I'm not necessarily saying you're one of them, NCsoft — seem to assume because of Avatar's incredible box office run in China in 2010 that it's near-automatic that Avatar 2 will have similar amounts of adjusted-up box office success in China over a decade later. I don't agree: I don't think it's anywhere near automatic, and I don't think a huge gross for Avatar 2 in China should be taken for granted.

 

Outside of huge 'want to see' figures for Avatar 2 on Maoyan which have been accumulated over the past decade and which aren't necessarily indicative of current audience interest, and some OK-but-by-no-means-incredible trailer views in China, we haven't really seen anything to indicate that Avatar 2 will have the type of performance in China that people seem to think it should have. And given how much has changed in the Chinese box office market since 2010 and how few signs we've seen recently to suggest such a huge performance, I couldn't in good faith say that $1b would be likely even in an idealized, 2019-esque China. Avatar 2 certainly had the potential to do those kinds of numbers in an unrestricted, fully-functioning China, and I'd never go anywhere close to discounting the possibility entirely, but given the above issues, I couldn't personally say that I think it would have been likely.

 

So my question to those who are confident that Avatar 2 would have made close to or more than $1b in 2019 market conditions with no government restrictions, how are you backing up that chain of thought?

 

Just want to start by explaining a few things. People use "likely" differently. For me, it's more of a "I think it's realistic and has a relatively good chance (>60%) of happening". Also, by 2019 I more meant 2019 market mood (no zero covid, not as nationalistic, able to get simultaneous release and no sabotaged run and good presale period... that sort of thing), the prediction of $1B would have to have 2021-2022 ATP baked in, I don't think getting to $1B is as simple with 2019 ATP.

 

Also the thing regarding Avatar 2's trailer count, I think there might have been some miscommunication because the first teaser has more views than Endgame on BiliBili, it's only the official trailer number that was a bit "underwhelming", but China doesn't have a centralized video website like YouTube, and Avatar isn't exactly a hype franchise movie like MCU films, I think it's hard to gauge interest by just looking at view counts from certain channels, even then those numbers are fine. I think if you're on Chinese social media a lot, and I am, it's hard to miss the very high "general awareness" of both Avatar and Cameron, even if the anticipation doesn't seem "boiling hot" like with MCU films, the awareness of Avatar and its gravitas is very persistent. With China, it's always about casting the widest net possible, connect with Tier 3+ city audiences has always been a struggle for Hollywood films, but with Cameron, it's a bit different, the resonance is wide-reaching.

 

Granted, Cameron hasn't released a film in post expansion China market, so all this is guess work. but the idea that Avatar might do $1B in idealized 2019, is not really based on an automatic assumption because Avatar was a miracle in China, if Avatar was a miracle, it wasn't Cameron's first.

All three of Cameron's most recent releases have became the highest grossing film of all time in China, True Lies, Titanic (which nearly doubled the previous record), and Avatar (which pretty much tripled the previous record), those movies were not released in the same eras either. So there is a history of wide resonance and success there, more than just Avatar, and from this perspective, the general high awareness (thus the high "want to see" counts) and high reverence for Cameron is easier to understand.

 

Here is the thinking process behind A2 doing $1B is an idealized China market:

I think the idea behind A2 doing $1B was never based on lazy extrapolation, because then it would be much higher than $1B.

If we extrapolate by market size, 2019 market was 10X 2009 and 6.3X 2010 (expansion thanks in huge part to Avatar), so if we go by that, the prediction would be somewhere between $1.2B to $2B (and we expected the market to be bigger by 2021-2022).

If we extrapolate by relative performance, then tripling the current highest grosser would put it at $2.7B, no one is predicting that crazy number. 

The prediction of $1B, doesn't require A2 to repeat a Titanic and Avatar level of performance, it's requires a more understated but still phenomenon performance. 

 

We know in 2017 Wolf Warrior 2 grossed RMB 5.7B ($870M) and broke the all time record with like 160M admission, and since then the market further expanded by quite a bit in 2018 and 2019, up until that point, it was completely reasonable to believe that the market will keep expanding and by 2021-2022, the ATP would also grew higher.

 

Within a few years of Wolf Warrior 2, a few things were clear:

1. The Market expansion is China is driven by higher admission, 100M admission (or near that level) films occur more frequently, even multiple times in a year:  Wandering Earth (105M), NeZha(141M), Hi Mom(121M), TBALC (125M). Detective Chinatown 3 (95M). 

2. The Average Ticket price keeps rising, Wandering Earth can gross RMB4.7B with 55M less admission than WW2, and even crazier, Endgame was able to gross RMB4.25B with like 87M admission - there was reason to believe that ATP would be even higher in 2021-2022.

3. The Chinese market can support a $1.2-1.3B film, even in 2019, but the right film (combining WW2 admission and Endgame ATP) hasn't appeared yet, with the market keep expanding in admission and ATP,  it made sense to assume that in 2021-2022, the market theoretical capacity would be even higher than 2019.

4. With Endgame's gross, we know Hollywood film can still do good business, the problem is MCU doesn't quite cast as wide of a net in China as Cameron films or even Fast 7 and Transformers 4 (both were at one point the highest grosser ever in China, something Endgame could not achieve).

The release of Battle of Lake Changjin in 2021 even further confirms this, it has like 35M less admission than WW2 but still outgrossed it, at $910M, without coming anywhere close to maximum admission capacity, and that's during Pandemic era. One can assume A2 would have higher ATP.

 

So for Avatar 2 to gross $1B in an idealized China market, with inflated Avatar 2 fashion ATP with all the PLFs, in 2021-2022, it pretty much just requires a "Top 3 of year type of admission" and very high ATP to kick it over the $1B mark. A admission similar to Hi Mom, or TBALC would probably do (though not with this crappy exchange rate), doesn't need to even reach NeZha level. And since we've gotten 160M admission back in 2017; it wasn't unreasonable to think by 2021-2022, >100M admission would become very common place, considering the population, and 120M wouldn't even be some sort of all-timer performance, we'd see that every year.

So $1B really wouldn't have required A2 to do miracle and double or triple the previous grosser, or even reach the WW2 admission number, it would just require a banger, best of the year type of run, and let high ATP do the work. I think because of all the reasons I listed, a $1B projection wasn't unrealistic at all.

 

Of course, this is all just talk now, and not relevant in the current market condition. Since 2019 the pandemic happened, the population grew way way more nationalistic, exchange rate is bad, 58% of theatres are open, and the ones that can go are probably scared to. 

So really just to reminisce the past, and wonder what China could have been under current conditions. If A2 does like $450M in China, I'd probably have tears of joy. 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2022 by NCsoft

[charlie Jatinder]

I was/am hopeful on China release, but even if it doesn't, well, nothing shocking either.

[simoimo19]

Presales starting tomorrow 8AM in France

Edited November 21, 2022 by simoimo19

[Potiki]

Presales have started here in NZ. 

 

Breakdown for opening night Wednesday at my local is

4 3D Showings (2 VMAX (PLF), 1 Gold Class (premium dining experience), 1 regular)

5 2D showings (1 VMAX, 1 Goldclass, 3 Regular)

 

Breakdown for Opening day Thursday is

9 3D Showings (3 VMAX, 3 Gold Class, 3 Regular)

9 2D showings (3 VMAX, 3 Gold Class, 3 Regular)

 

For sure the most 3D showings in a while, usually it is only maybe 10-20% of showings not 40-50%

 

Will probably check sales a week out from release if I get time. 

[thajdikt]

Pre-sales starts officially tomorrow in Norway 9AM local time. However you can get tickets now if you are a member of the member program of the two biggest chains in Norway. ODEON IMAX (only one in Norway) are having showings at 5AM the first day. The first day has Endgame level showings. Curious to see how quick they will go tomorrow. So far not many has bought but that is also due to very few have those membership program. Expecting good sales tomorrow when it officially starts.

[XXR vs XXR]

25 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

The first day has Endgame level showings.

Endgame opened to about 22M NOK and finished at ~72M.

 

I would be looking for A2 to outperform NTTD and go over 100M NOK.

[thajdikt]

3 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

Endgame opened to about 22M NOK and finished at ~72M.

 

I would be looking for A2 to outperform NTTD and go over 100M NOK.

I would be very surprised if it doesn´t pass NTTD.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

Endgame opened to about 22M NOK and finished at ~72M.

 

I would be looking for A2 to outperform NTTD and go over 100M NOK.

120M.

 

NTTD is highest grosser at 100M+

Edited November 22, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Doffy]

In india ticket rates are ridiculous  500 to 2500rs for 3d and 4dx looks like endgame record will be shattered in first 3 days.

If it is same every where than 3b is feasible without any sweats.

[Nero]

2 hours ago, Doffy said:

In india ticket rates are ridiculous  500 to 2500rs for 3d and 4dx looks like endgame record will be shattered in first 3 days.

If it is same every where than 3b is feasible without any sweats.

That will be only for 1st week. Afterwards prices will be back to normal.

[John Rambo]

7 hours ago, Doffy said:

In india ticket rates are ridiculous  500 to 2500rs for 3d and 4dx looks like endgame record will be shattered in first 3 days.

If it is same every where than 3b is feasible without any sweats.

will watch it after a while when ticket prices come down....except TGM cant think of paying so much for any movie!!! 

[Sophia Jane]

So How much it will doing in India?

💲70m or higher?

[charlie Jatinder]

8 hours ago, Doffy said:

In india ticket rates are ridiculous  500 to 2500rs for 3d and 4dx looks like endgame record will be shattered in first 3 days.

That's been the case for almost every major Hollywood blockbuster like NWH, DSitMoM. Nothing new for Avatar. The prices are a loot though.

 

8 hours ago, Doffy said:

If it is same every where than 3b is feasible without any sweats.

 

Avatar will most likely become biggest Holly film in India but it won't be just 3 days. Should take like 10 days atleast.

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Jiffy]

So is China release confirmed for this?

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Jiffy said:

So is China release confirmed for this?

 

There are positive inclinations that it will be release, but no it's not confirmed.